will uci renew astanaÂ’s license?

[Publicus]

Christian Prudhomme.

Now, does that sound like Astana are going to have their licence pulled?
On what grounds?
Bruyneel has departed and with him will have gone all those mysterious financial problems.
McQuaid has got nil cause and thats about the sum of it.

I think this is right but you still have the issue of a severely depleted Astana with a new manager who has no real management team to just plug in. He's going to have to build it from scratch. How one does that and sign enough riders to meet the Pro Tour criteria to be a licensee is beyond me. But hook or by crook, I think Astana will get it done. Here's hoping the find some decent riders for Alberto and to make an overall competitive team in the other races.

 

[fatandfast]

with the exception of this

and this
that post by fastandfat is 98% moronic.

When you are 60 days past due for almost 130k I would say you don't have a good management structure. If you less than 2900 licensed racers I would say you don't contribute much. I would say if the federation has to compel you to pay your riders and support employees, you have a ****e organization. If you test the waters by asking the fed if it would be okay for a doper just coming off suspension to work as an overseer of ethics and a checkbook is plain stupid. This team is **** from the top down. Biggest selfish mistake Armstrong made was acting like a temp life boat, these guys will and would have sank with all the other trash had Garmin or Columbia been willing to make room for LA and his posse. Astana is a pimple on cyclings ***. They shoiuld have pulled the numbers off their riders at Adriatico and should have been told to go home at the Giro. The no start at the tour with the defending champ was just punishment.

 

[derailleur]

Then it's likely that he thinks that it's a bad thing. Anyway it's funny how doping becomes the consecuence of a system which predicates cooperation, rather than of a system based on competition. Maybe I'm missing something there?

Cooperation within teams, and "gentleman's agreements" to compete on a level field between them.

The Prisoner's Dilemma plays a big part, here. You can be as clean as you want, and you can be assured some of your competition is clean, but if you have doubts about even one of them, then you have a nonzero risk of losing to a cheater. If a large fraction of your competitors is cheating, you have a large risk of never succeeding. That leaves you with a choice of suffering a mediocre career, quitting the sport, or joining in to compete under the prevailing conditions.

Repeat for 90 or 100 years and you have a culture of cheating, and it's not the competitors' fault if they find it necessary to go along to get along. It's the system's fault for not preventing and policing it across the system. When the system engages in contributory negligence, and profits from the increased performance, it takes extra effort to get the system to find more profit in changing.

It seems to be getting better, incrementally, but it's been incrementing for decades. Testing still doesn't catch everything. The punishments from the league are still not totally effective as a deterrent. People who are caught seem to shrug off 2-year suspensions, and many observers don't consider it time-served when it's over. It needs to do some more incrementing, or just go to the wall and make cheating a lifetime ban, with jail time if the drugs are illegal, too.

 

[Publicus]

How many people actually believe that a conglomerate of gas and oil companies didn't have enough money to pay for the wages of a cycling team?



If you're gonna go by that, then how do Spanish and Italian teams get licenses?

I do for one. If you recall oil was trading at all time highs ($140+ per barrel) and then the bottom dropped out of the market (I believe the price was around $40 per barrel at one point). Given that the oil and gas revenues constitute the majority of their national revenue (GDP), I could see them prioritizing the rest of the nation over an Astana team that wasn't really featuring Kazakhs.

 

[luckyboy]

We can only exclude teams, and not riders, and it would out of order to ban contador's team when he's defending champion twice, so I'm resigned to having Vino around as the price for letting Alberto ride.

Christian Prudhomme.

Now, does that sound like Astana are going to have their licence pulled?
On what grounds?
Bruyneel has departed and with him will have gone all those mysterious financial problems.
McQuaid has got nil cause and thats about the sum of it.

They almost banned Virenque a while back, but they only issued the ban a month before the Tour started so it was too late. Maybe the rules have changed since then though?

 

[python]

When you are 60 days past due for almost 130k I would say you don't have a good management structure. If you less than 2900 licensed racers I would say you don't contribute much. I would say if the federation has to compel you to pay your riders and support employees, you have a ****e organization. If you test the waters by asking the fed if it would be okay for a doper just coming off suspension to work as an overseer of ethics and a checkbook is plain stupid. This team is **** from the top down. Biggest selfish mistake Armstrong made was acting like a temp life boat, these guys will and would have sank with all the other trash had Garmin or Columbia been willing to make room for LA and his posse. Astana is a pimple on cyclings ***. They shoiuld have pulled the numbers off their riders at Adriatico and should have been told to go home at the Giro. The no start at the tour with the defending champ was just punishment.

this post is a little better but u gotta admit your post ##17 was still 98% moronic, cheers.

 

[Moondance]

I do for one. If you recall oil was trading at all time highs ($140+ per barrel) and then the bottom dropped out of the market (I believe the price was around $40 per barrel at one point). Given that the oil and gas revenues constitute the majority of their national revenue (GDP), I could see them prioritizing the rest of the nation over an Astana team that wasn't really featuring Kazakhs.

The figures you quote, while roughly accurate, refer to the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) price for light crude, which is the US standard of quality. Kazakhstan, like most former Eastern bloc oil producers, don't produce large quantities of light or sweet crude oil, relying much more on the production of mazut. While the price of mazut does fluctuate resonably along with general trends in the energy market, it is not widely traded in futures markets, and as a result it is, by-and-large, not speculated against like WTI/light crude is, therefore Kazakhstan probably did not see a significant dropoff in oil revenues in 08-09, when the commodities bubble burst.

 

[Publicus]

The figures you quote, while roughly accurate, refer to the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) price for light crude, which is the US standard of quality. Kazakhstan, like most former Eastern bloc oil producers, don't produce large quantities of light or sweet crude oil, relying much more on the production of mazut. While the price of mazut does fluctuate resonably along with general trends in the energy market, it is not widely traded in futures markets, and as a result it is, by-and-large, not speculated against like WTI/light crude is, therefore Kazakhstan probably did not see a significant dropoff in oil revenues in 08-09, when the commodities bubble burst.

Thanks. So much for my theory. Plus I learned something.

 

[fatandfast]

Thanks. So much for my theory. Plus I learned something.

I think you guys are thinking of another place. Astana can fund their squad not only from Kazi oil but natural gas...and lead...and copper...and URANIUM. This place is natural resource paradise. And who needs any pesky government oversight. Drill,dig, steal it's a way of life. This is the new wild west.

 

[luckyboy]

Isn't there some announcement with this today? The 20th right?

 

[richwagmn]

Isn't there some announcement with this today? The 20th right?

Tomorrow is the latest I've heard.

 

[Anonymous]

Tomorrow is the latest I've heard.

everywhere is saying tuesday, except cycling news that says monday....

im guessing tuesday as monday has happened

 

[luckyboy]

Yeah, it's now the 20th here - 2am - that's what I meant

 

[Cobblestones]

everywhere is saying tuesday, except cycling news that says monday....

im guessing tuesday as monday has happened

It's still Monday here in the important part of the world.

 

[python]

i'm surprised by the poll results. 3 to 1 in favor of delanced dehoged deklodened almost decapitated squad.

it must be vino effect

u still have several hours to vote before the poll closed.

 

[ingsve]

i'm surprised by the poll results. 3 to 1 in favor of delanced dehoged deklodened almost decapitated squad.

it must be vino effect

u still have several hours to vote before the poll closed.

I don't think it's a representation of what people want to happen but rather what people think will happen. Since astana already has a license and the question is wether UCI will yank it from them it would take quite a bit for them to do so. If Astana can show that they have the money and a good staff situation and a realistic possibility to get a good squad (which isn't too hard since they would have Contador) then there is not alot of grounds for the UCI to base a decision to yank the license on.

 

[Hugh Januss]

I don't think it's a representation of what people want to happen but rather what people think will happen. Since astana already has a license and the question is wether UCI will yank it from them it would take quite a bit for them to do so. If Astana can show that they have the money and a good staff situation and a realistic possibility to get a good squad (which isn't too hard since they would have Contador) then there is not alot of grounds for the UCI to base a decision to yank the license on.

Exactly why I voted that way.

 

[python]

I don't think it's a representation of what people want to happen but rather what people think will happen. Since astana already has a license and the question is wether UCI will yank it from them it would take quite a bit for them to do so. If Astana can show that they have the money and a good staff situation and a realistic possibility to get a good squad (which isn't too hard since they would have Contador) then there is not alot of grounds for the UCI to base a decision to yank the license on.

your post is logical and all that but we are not very used to the uci acting rationally. they just awarded a 4 year pt license to a team with no clear commitment etc. politically based decisions is what i expect. i think mcquaid's visit to kazakhstan president 4 weeks ago, handshakes, under-the-table promises - that's what will get astana rolling again. but i could be wrong.

 

[Hugh Januss]

your post is logical and all that but we are not very used to the uci acting rationally. they just awarded a 4 year pt license to a team with no clear commitment etc. politically based decisions is what i expect. i think mcquaid's visit to kazakhstan president 4 weeks ago, handshakes, under-the-table promises - that's what will get astana rolling again. but i could be wrong.

Exactly why I voted that way, too.
Seriously, either one of these explanations is compelling enough by itself that while I think Astana retaining the license is a forgone conclusion, I just can't wait to see how the UCI get it wrong.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Not an easy task, trying to second guess the UCI.
Astana announced another good signing yesterday.
I'd be surprised if PT riders were joining to be down-graded.

If it were for a licence renewal, their chances would be slim.
As it's not, their chances, with Mr B gone, have drastically improved.

 

[luckyboy]

Any idea on when the announcement will be? If they even do it today, that is.

 

[**Uru**]

I hope they get dropped for three reasons. First, I would prefer to see Contador riding for one of the 3 teams that have been rumored since the TdF ended. Second, because of all the monkey business with finances this year. Lastly, because Vino is back. I suspect he will either pop positive again or he will create more drama for Contador. Specifically, I wonder if ASO will not allow Astana to ride the TdF because Vino is on the team.

It is far better for Contador if Astana is stripped of its PT license.

 

[Publicus]

I hope they get dropped for three reasons. First, I would prefer to see Contador riding for one of the 3 teams that have been rumored since the TdF ended. Second, because of all the monkey business with finances this year. Lastly, because Vino is back. I suspect he will either pop positive again or he will create more drama for Contador. Specifically, I wonder if ASO will not allow Astana to ride the TdF because Vino is on the team.

It is far better for Contador if Astana is stripped of its PT license.

Definitely agree with you on points 1 and 2--frankly Astana had government backing before and still didn't pay; not sure how a new government owned holding company provides any greater assurance. AC has personal assurances that he will be able to ride the TdF no matter which team he rides for, so that's a dead issue.

 

[fatandfast]

I would love to see this team crash and burn. The talent that is on there current roster would make lots of teams do a serious shuffle if they all become available. I would love to see the look on the guys face when Alberto gets there to de-thrown a team leader. Lotto my 1st, Garmin 2nd but he really fits at Quick Step.

 

[luckyboy]

Specifically, I wonder if ASO will not allow Astana to ride the TdF because Vino is on the team.

Basso and Millar were banned, yet lo and behold, they were allowed back to the Tour. I don't see why Vino shouldn't be - he has served his ban