World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[Koronin]

Re:

Nibali's palmares would be very nearly complete with a win here, having won almost every race he could possibly win.

I don't know how much he's focusing on this (although I suspect quite a bit), but I think the course fits him better than Alaphilippe, Sagan and even Valverde.

Nibali's main goal of the season is the Worlds. Not sure about Valverde as he's made so many different comments, however it is a goal of his. It does fit Nibali a bit better than Valverde, except that Nibali is apparently still injured and Valverde is more or less recovered from his injury last year. I would say a win there would pretty much complete the palmares for both Nibali and Valverde.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

I'm always amazed by Landa and the hype surrounding him.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

I'm always amazed by Landa and the hype surrounding him.

Still worse odds than Sagan.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

Uran in 41/1 is not bad as well.

Uran is the actually on of the best values IMHO.

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

I'm always amazed by Landa and the hype surrounding him.

Still worse odds than Sagan.

Well, you can't put much worse odds to Sagan. Many would just try it and with Sagan you never now. Rio could be repeated.

 

[Nirvana]

Re:

I'm sure Cassani is cooking a plan B since he found out about the extent of Nibali's injury. The last news about the fact that Vincenzo has bad back pain and that his whole career might be in jeopardy doesn't change a thing. I'm sure that if he can still ride his bike in September he'll be the leader with a plan B in place for Italy.

He should be able to climb not only ride his bike, yesterday he was good on the flat but today he was dropped on the cat. 3 climb whilst Viviani was still easily in the middle of peloton and the pace was all but high, if his injury prevent him to climb properly he's of no use even if he'll hit top shape in a month.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

Why is Thomas longer odds than Sagan? Have the bookies even looked at the course?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

Why is Thomas longer odds than Sagan? Have the bookies even looked at the course?

Because more people are betting Sagan than Thomas.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

Why is Thomas longer odds than Sagan? Have the bookies even looked at the course?

Because more people are betting Sagan than Thomas.

That makes no sense, these were the odds straight after they were published. Who was betting before they were published?

It could be a case of the bookies artificially pricing Sagan low to try to entice casual followers into believing he is a favourite. Or anticipating a lot of money being put on him. But I think they could get their fingers burnt pricing Thomas so long.

 

[del1962]

I am not sure Thomas will be in shape after all the media stuff he did after tour

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

I'm sure Cassani is cooking a plan B since he found out about the extent of Nibali's injury. The last news about the fact that Vincenzo has bad back pain and that his whole career might be in jeopardy doesn't change a thing. I'm sure that if he can still ride his bike in September he'll be the leader with a plan B in place for Italy.

He should be able to climb not only ride his bike, yesterday he was good on the flat but today he was dropped on the cat. 3 climb whilst Viviani was still easily in the middle of peloton and the pace was all but high, if his injury prevent him to climb properly he's of no use even if he'll hit top shape in a month.

It's not like Italy has a gazillion other options to play with. Either you support Nibali with the best climbers you have and a couple good engines or bring the same riders to go in the attack every time they can.

And btw let's face it: with no Nibali what are the odds of Italy winning the race?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

Why is Thomas longer odds than Sagan? Have the bookies even looked at the course?

Because more people are betting Sagan than Thomas.

That makes no sense, these were the odds straight after they were published. Who was betting before they were published?

It could be a case of the bookies artificially pricing Sagan low to try to entice casual followers into believing he is a favourite. Or anticipating a lot of money being put on him. But I think they could get their fingers burnt pricing Thomas so long.

There's probably only a few bookies who actually set the lines, and the others will just blindly follow similar odds

They probably ran the data of betting patterns of previous races, which is why Sagan is rated so highly. 26.00 odds with a -100% roi can still look really good to a casual fan.

 

[Son of Amsterhammer]

Look at some of the names less favored than Sagan. Ridiculous!

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

I'm sure Cassani is cooking a plan B since he found out about the extent of Nibali's injury. The last news about the fact that Vincenzo has bad back pain and that his whole career might be in jeopardy doesn't change a thing. I'm sure that if he can still ride his bike in September he'll be the leader with a plan B in place for Italy.

He should be able to climb not only ride his bike, yesterday he was good on the flat but today he was dropped on the cat. 3 climb whilst Viviani was still easily in the middle of peloton and the pace was all but high, if his injury prevent him to climb properly he's of no use even if he'll hit top shape in a month.

It's not like Italy has a gazillion other options to play with. Either you support Nibali with the best climbers you have and a couple good engines or bring the same riders to go in the attack every time they can.

And btw let's face it: with no Nibali what are the odds of Italy winning the race?

Very low but without him they can go on the attack and hope that a break will go to the finish, if they take him they should ride for him and if he can't follow the favourites the race is over for Italy.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Odds are out, Bardet is a good catch

Why is Thomas longer odds than Sagan? Have the bookies even looked at the course?

Because more people are betting Sagan than Thomas.

That makes no sense, these were the odds straight after they were published. Who was betting before they were published?

It could be a case of the bookies artificially pricing Sagan low to try to entice casual followers into believing he is a favourite. Or anticipating a lot of money being put on him. But I think they could get their fingers burnt pricing Thomas so long.

There's probably only a few bookies who actually set the lines, and the others will just blindly follow similar odds

They probably ran the data of betting patterns of previous races, which is why Sagan is rated so highly. 26.00 odds with a -100% roi can still look really good to a casual fan.

Yes, so its down to anticipation of money being put on him, rather than more people actually betting on Sagan.

But I think Thomas will attract a lot of bets and is underpriced. He's the best (and most high profile) climber in the world this year, is way more suited to the course, has good one day experience, and is British.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think Thomas is gonna be near the win, but I agree that it's strange he's at 34. I think he'd get similar action at 21 or 15 or whatever.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I don't think Thomas is gonna be near the win, but I agree that it's strange he's at 34. I think he'd get similar action at 21 or 15 or whatever.

Why do think he won't be near the win? If he puts his late season focus on this race he should in theory be one of the top 3 favorites. I mean nobody climbed better than him this year, of the climbers probably only Valverde has a better sprint than him and he is also one of the most experienced one day racers in the field.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I don't think Thomas is gonna be near the win, but I agree that it's strange he's at 34. I think he'd get similar action at 21 or 15 or whatever.

Why do think he won't be near the win? If he puts his late season focus on this race he should in theory be one of the top 3 favorites. I mean nobody climbed better than him this year, of the climbers probably only Valverde has a better sprint than him and he is also one of the most experienced one day racers in the field.

I think it's Tour media attention and all that junk. He was bad in Germany.

Guess we'll see what he's up to at the Worlds. He's never done will in the very hilly one day races

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

I am not sure Thomas will be in shape after all the media stuff he did after tour

Maybe he was riding his bike to the interviews..........

 

[del1962]

Speaking at a press conference Saturday in Newport, Wales, Thomas as good as said he will not go to Innsbruck, although like Froome he was on the short list of riders released last week by British Cycling. He certainly does not view the next eight days as World’s preparation.

“Not really, no," Thomas said when asked about preparation for worlds. "Winning the Dauphine and the Tour doesn’t happen every day. I’ve enjoyed it, I’m not in the shape to try and win. We’ll see how this week goes and maybe if I’m in a shape to add something to the team.”

At best G will be a support rider

 

[SKSemtex]

A lot of people who are betting all kind of sports knows *** about the cycling and knows only some names. For them 26/1 for 3xworld champion can be an excellent opportunity :lol:

I will try Uran, Fuglsang, and Rosa whose form in autumn was quite incredible last 3 years.

Of course, I hope Sagan will win somehow. If not him then Nibali.

 

[Gigs_98]

A lot of people who are betting all kind of sports knows **** about the cycling and knows only some names. For them 26/1 for 3xworld champion can be an excellent opportunity :lol:

I will try Uran, Fuglsang, and Rosa whose form in autumn was quite incredible last 3 years.

Of course, I hope Sagan will win somehow. If not him then Nibali.

In terms of betting Rosa is indeed a great pick, if he gets selected (no idea if there are already any infos about the italian selection) In 2015 and 2016 the guy was nowhere to be seen for most of the season just to be one of the strongest riders (or in the case of 2016 the strongest rider) in Lombardia. If he gets that kind of shape again he is one of the top favorites while the bookies probably have him in nowhere land.

 

[Red Rick]

Lol Thomas.

You have one great route to try and become WC, aaaaaand you throw it away.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

Lol Thomas.

You have one great route to try and become WC, aaaaaand you throw it away.

I’d rather they went with the Yates twins anyway.

 

[Rollthedice]

Highly doubt Rosa will be selected.