World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[tobydawq]

Re:

Lampaert, Jungels, Schachmann, De Plus, Asgreen and Terpstra will be riding the TTT.

No way they'll beat BMC with Bevin, Kung, Dennis, Van Avermaet, Caruso and Van Garderen.

Is that BMC's team? No Rosskopf who was just second in the long Vuelta ITT?

 

[glassmoon]

Re: Re:

The skinny climbers won't like the cold too much. Quintana should love it.

I doubt there will be a neutralized descent where he can attack though. :twisted:

:lol:

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

Lampaert, Jungels, Schachmann, De Plus, Asgreen and Terpstra will be riding the TTT.

No way they'll beat BMC with Bevin, Kung, Dennis, Van Avermaet, Caruso and Van Garderen.

Is that BMC's team? No Rosskopf who was just second in the long Vuelta ITT?

The team is so strong they also have Porte, Bookwalter, Roche, Scotson and Ventoso, who can all hold their own in a TTT.

IMHO the only certainties would be Dennis and Küng.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

The skinny climbers won't like the cold too much. Quintana should love it.

I doubt there will be a neutralized descent where he can attack though. :twisted:

As funny as that is, you know it was Gautier who attacked right?

 

[Valv.Piti]

I keep coming back to Wout Poels. Brilliant on the steep stuff and in long races, in strong form, great in adverse weather (LBL win for example) and has a finishing sprint inferior only to Valverde and (maybe) Alaphilippe amongst the main chances.

But of course it's a very open race. Has the potential to be the best race of the season.

I would be disappointed if it wont be up there in terms of best one day race for sure. It has all the ingredients to be a pretty great race.


What I really wonder is who is gonna control the race and how. I actually think it's easier to control the race by sending a threat in the break from 2/3 laps out than by driving pace in the peloton. I guess Spain doesn't really have a plan B for Valverde so I imagine they want to keep it together, but Valverde isn't a lock for a top 5 on this route.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not really sure what to expect tactically. Firenze was a boring race where nothing happened until the final lap, but I think that there are plenty of great climbers who are secondary leaders who will put on the pressure from further out.

I imagine basically every team will have someone for the longer attacks and someone to wait it all out, and not all teams are gonna be happy with whatever break goes up the road.

I think the climb is hard enough to give climbers a big advantage over domestiques who have to drive the pace.

Lastly, I don't think you can take back/create huge gaps on the last climb. Even if you haven't done anything, you'll be far from fresh when you get there, and there's been plenty of preselection to make sure that everyone there is pretty close in climbing ability.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

With an average gradient of 5,7 % over only 7 km, on the Igls climb they are repeating 7 times before the finale, I could see several classics guys hack it to the end.

Sagan is probably too heavy, but the guys who are usually up there in Liege/Amstel, should have a shot here..... it does not necessarily have to be one of the top grand tour GC guys.

However, they will need around 30 seconds to 1 minute, before they hit Gramartboden in the finale, to stick with the climbers across the top.

I think a lot of the teams without obvious favorites, like Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Slovenia, Norway, Slovakia, USA, etc. will go for an early break... and Austria will be part of every move, on the home turf....... and the question then becomes: Who amongst Spain, Colombia, France, etc., is going to burn up their team (and tactical options) reining in the break? - Especially when several of them probably send people along in such a break, to have an alibi for not doing work.

 

[Gigs_98]

People who think the Igls climb isn't hard enough to drop the classics guys, watch the final stage of the tour of the alps again. They only rode that climb like 3 or 4 times and the best climbers were by far better than anyone else. No way a rider who isn't a superb climber can win this

 

[Red Rick]

People who think the Igls climb isn't hard enough to drop the classics guys, watch the final stage of the tour of the alps again. They only rode that climb like 3 or 4 times and the best climbers were by far better than anyone else. No way a rider who isn't a superb climber can win this

Also

Back in 2015, a grand total of 5 riders made it over the top of the monster that is the Fiesole in the first group

They were

Joaquim Rodriguez
Alejandro Valverde
Vincenzo Nibali
Rigoberto Uran
Rui Costa

Uran crashed out on the descent, and the numbers 2, 3 and 4 at the Worlds were also the numbers 2, 3 and 4 at the Vuelta albeit in a different order.

 

[bambino]

Re:

With an average gradient of 5,7 % over only 7 km, on the Igls climb they are repeating 7 times before the finale, I could see several classics guys hack it to the end.

Sagan is probably too heavy, but the guys who are usually up there in Liege/Amstel, should have a shot here..... it does not necessarily have to be one of the top grand tour GC guys.

However, they will need around 30 seconds to 1 minute, before they hit Gramartboden in the finale, to stick with the climbers across the top.

I think a lot of the teams without obvious favorites, like Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Slovenia, Norway, Slovakia, USA, etc. will go for an early break... and Austria will be part of every move, on the home turf....... and the question then becomes: Who amongst Spain, Colombia, France, etc., is going to burn up their team (and tactical options) reining in the break? - Especially when several of them probably send people along in such a break, to have an alibi for not doing work.

The climb is 7,9km in 5,7% average and steepest parts on 10%. That 7 times in row.

This is not about how steep and long that climb, but it is about endurance.

I was thinking originally country like Italy could have taken a tactic to burn one mountain dom per climb i.e in last 4 times they climb it, i.e. Pellizotti first, De Marchi next, Aru and Pozzovivo last time climb it. I bet there would've not been more than 10 pure climbers left to battle the last steep climb. They will not do it though as Nibs is not in shape and their best bet is probably Moscon who would be dropped far out with such tactic.

 

[Rollthedice]

The terrain is there for a consistent early break and after 57km there's Gnadenwald, 2.6 km at 10.5% where another group might form. There's not much flat between the climbs so any strong group forming with a few laps to go can stay away. There's about 20 riders who can win this race, instinct and being in the right moves might decide it.

 

[roundabout]

There are a couple of steep pitches out of Lans, but no way that there is anything remotely close to a whole km at 10%

 

[bambino]

Re:

There are a couple of steep pitches out of Lans, but no way that there is anything remotely close to a whole km at 10%

Corrected. Steepest parts are 10%. Steepest km is 7,4%.

 

[Tim Booth]

FRANCE

ALAPHILIPPE Julian
BARDET Romain
GALLOPIN Tony
GENIEZ Alexandre
MOLARD Rudy
PINOT Thibaut
ROLLAND Pierre
ROUX Anthony

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

There are a couple of steep pitches out of Lans, but no way that there is anything remotely close to a whole km at 10%

Corrected. Steepest parts are 10%. Steepest km is 7,4%.

This is the climb. 7 times.

 

[DNP-Old]

Julian won't be denied this time.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

There are a couple of steep pitches out of Lans, but no way that there is anything remotely close to a whole km at 10%

Corrected. Steepest parts are 10%. Steepest km is 7,4%.

This is the climb. 7 times.

Yep + 2 steep shorter climbs on top of it. I.e. Lombardia is walk in the park compared to this.

 

[Nirvana]

Without Nibali wanting to make carnage from far I don't know if some nation will control the race, I see increasingly possibility for a break with riders like van Avermaet, Valgren and second fiddle climbers to go clear with 3/4 laps to go and no one clearly chasing it. And we should also consider that Nibali was also the only one between climbers interested to go clear before the final climb so I can see a big waiting game in the favourites group that will only help the eventual break.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Without Nibali wanting to make carnage from far I don't know if some nation will control the race, I see increasingly possibility for a break with riders like van Avermaet, Valgren and second fiddle climbers to go clear with 3/4 laps to go and no one clearly chasing it. And we should also consider that Nibali was also the only one between climbers interested to go clear before the final climb so I can see a big waiting game in the favourites group that will only help the eventual break.

second fiddle climbers in this context probably means top climbers without classics pedigree.

Pure classics guys aren't gonna be anywhere close.

 

[slosada]

Re:

With an average gradient of 5,7 % over only 7 km, on the Igls climb they are repeating 7 times before the finale, I could see several classics guys hack it to the end.

Sagan is probably too heavy, but the guys who are usually up there in Liege/Amstel, should have a shot here..... it does not necessarily have to be one of the top grand tour GC guys.

However, they will need around 30 seconds to 1 minute, before they hit Gramartboden in the finale, to stick with the climbers across the top.

I think a lot of the teams without obvious favorites, like Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Slovenia, Norway, Slovakia, USA, etc. will go for an early break... and Austria will be part of every move, on the home turf....... and the question then becomes: Who amongst Spain, Colombia, France, etc., is going to burn up their team (and tactical options) reining in the break? - Especially when several of them probably send people along in such a break, to have an alibi for not doing work.

Colombia will try for sure. They have done it almost always since Jaramillo is the national DS. It was usually Pantano. And it's better that way, if not, This stupid will make them burn in the first 100Kms... Thankfully there are no radios and the riders are more experienced.

 

[Blanco]

I think Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, and to some extent Colombia have the best cards to wait for the final wall, so it will be up to them to bring things back. On the other hand though, every one of them has secondary options they could send up the road, so I guess whoever misses the late break out of these 5 will have to chase that down.

 

[movingtarget]

FRANCE

ALAPHILIPPE Julian
BARDET Romain
GALLOPIN Tony
GENIEZ Alexandre
MOLARD Rudy
PINOT Thibaut
ROLLAND Pierre
ROUX Anthony

Strong team, one of the best.

 

[Nirvana]

Re: Re:

Without Nibali wanting to make carnage from far I don't know if some nation will control the race, I see increasingly possibility for a break with riders like van Avermaet, Valgren and second fiddle climbers to go clear with 3/4 laps to go and no one clearly chasing it. And we should also consider that Nibali was also the only one between climbers interested to go clear before the final climb so I can see a big waiting game in the favourites group that will only help the eventual break.

second fiddle climbers in this context probably means top climbers without classics pedigree.

Pure classics guys aren't gonna be anywhere close.

I can't see such a selection without a team hammering the race, the long climb is too easy.
Anyway I cited two classics riders that are capable to survive with the climbers in a 20/25 riders group, I think they'll attack because is better anticipating the wall but even if they'll stay in the group they can hang on until the last long climb or even to the foot of the wall, the same would have gone for Matthews, if selected.
For second fiddle climbers I mean riders like Pantano, Barguil, Visconti.

If someone expect a group of 5 or less pure climbers/GC riders already at the beginning of last lap I can see a lot of complain after the race, it's not Sallanches and there isn't Hinault.

 

[Laplaz]

I can absolutely see a scenario like in the European Championship this year. A 20 man group with strong riders to get a gap on the second or third last ascent to Igls and behind nobody caring about following them, because every team has a man in it.

 

[Broccolidwarf]

Re: Re:

With an average gradient of 5,7 % over only 7 km, on the Igls climb they are repeating 7 times before the finale, I could see several classics guys hack it to the end.

Sagan is probably too heavy, but the guys who are usually up there in Liege/Amstel, should have a shot here..... it does not necessarily have to be one of the top grand tour GC guys.

However, they will need around 30 seconds to 1 minute, before they hit Gramartboden in the finale, to stick with the climbers across the top.

I think a lot of the teams without obvious favorites, like Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Slovenia, Norway, Slovakia, USA, etc. will go for an early break... and Austria will be part of every move, on the home turf....... and the question then becomes: Who amongst Spain, Colombia, France, etc., is going to burn up their team (and tactical options) reining in the break? - Especially when several of them probably send people along in such a break, to have an alibi for not doing work.

The climb is 7,9km in 5,7% average and steepest parts on 10%. That 7 times in row.

This is not about how steep and long that climb, but it is about endurance.

I was thinking originally country like Italy could have taken a tactic to burn one mountain dom per climb i.e in last 4 times they climb it, i.e. Pellizotti first, De Marchi next, Aru and Pozzovivo last time climb it. I bet there would've not been more than 10 pure climbers left to battle the last steep climb. They will not do it though as Nibs is not in shape and their best bet is probably Moscon who would be dropped far out with such tactic.

Oh, I'm not talking about the classics guys sitting with the favorites, and winning from that group..... I'm not crazy, I hope

I mean that there are a lot of top classics guys there, simply by virtue of their countries having few (or no) real GC riders/climbers, and those top classics riders will form a very potent break away, earlier in the race than normal, because there are very few other options for them.

Usually in a WC, it's unknown riders from small nations that go away early.... this time around, the early break may be people like GvA, Sagan, Valgren, Pauwels, Stybar, Wellens, Jungels, Boasson Hagen, Kiriyenka, Lutsenko, Taaramäe, Skujins, Rui Costa, King, etc.

That is a very different kettle of fish, than the usual early breaks we see at a WC... and something that will be incredibly hard to control over a long distance.