World Championships Innsbruck 2018

[movingtarget]

Re:

That was a great show! Congrats to Hirschi, Switzerland rode an amazing race. Lambrecht was probably the strongest but too uncontrolled and too easily frustrated. Great to see a Finnish rider on the podium

The Ukrainian rider Padun was also very strong to finish fifth after being off the front for so long.

 

[jaylew]

Somehow Kwia is going slightly under the radar. I could absolutely see him winning, even if I hope that's not the case.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

Somehow Kwia is going slightly under the radar. I could absolutely see him winning, even if I hope that's not the case.

Has to be a chance. But I would be very surprised if Sagan and GVA did anything.

 

[greenedge]

Re: Re:

That was a great show! Congrats to Hirschi, Switzerland rode an amazing race. Lambrecht was probably the strongest but too uncontrolled and too easily frustrated. Great to see a Finnish rider on the podium

I don't really know if Lambrecht was the strongest. Hirschi had been in the break, while Lambrecht only had to close a gap of 15 seconds uphill. So until the final, he had not really had to do anything, while all the others had already put in serious efforts. Maybe he was the most fresh in the final, but he didn't play his cards right.

On that note though Switzerland had 4 riders in that group and one of them completely emptied himself so the others would be fresher. I agree that Hirschi must have been very strong, to even attack on a descent shows he was fresh and on great form, but Lambrecht's many attacks (although not enough for him to win) showed in my view he was the strongest.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

It will be the Yates twins versus the French 3 Musketeers

Talking of which who is the french leader ? I suppose Allaphillipe but Bardet climbs better and is a top descender as well
Pinot though may have the best form

I'd say Pinot is the most likely to win. He neither has Alaphilippe's sprint nor Bardet's descent but he had a close to perfect preparation and has shown he can be very strong in mountainous one day races before (he was the only one with Nibali over the top of Civiglio in Lombardia last year)

When Pinot attacked in the Vuelta Yates didn't need to react. This time he will react, and with a finish after a descent I don't see Pinot winning. Alaphilippe is a much better finisher. Bardet is a good descender, but it won't be easy to finish solo.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re:

I think the climbs are definitely selective enough. There might be a chance that nobody wants to move early and everything comes down to the final ramp (something I don't think will happen but apparently lots of experts do). In that case everything could theoretically come back together on the descent and the race could be decided in a sprint out of a small group, but then again I think even the likelihood of such a scenario is very small.

Cassani thinks that 10 seconds on top of the last climb is enough to win.

Two seconds can be enough; fifteen seconds can be too little. It depends on who's behind and whether they're working together.

 

[Pantani_lives]

About the women: now that Emma Johansson isn't there anymore I don't know who to cheer for. Who's most likely to finish second or third in every championship for the next decade?

 

[Rollthedice]

Thinking Pinot will come out as the best French though don't think he'll win. Alaphilippe is too much of a favorite, too much pressure and one Igls too much. Why there's not much talk about Valverde? I don't think him cracking at the end of Vuelta is relevant to Sunday.

 

[toolittle]

***. 0% raining chance. Nice temperature, slow wind, and cool.
I dreamed heavy rain, cold and crazy crosswind tomorrow

This is for a nice bike race. But no a legend historical epic edition of wc.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

****. 0% raining chance. Nice temperature, slow wind, and cool.
I dreamed heavy rain, cold and crazy crosswind tomorrow

This is for a nice bike race. But no a legend historical epic edition of wc.

In all honesty, I'm not overly sad. That highspeed descent with rain would have been extremely dangerous

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Thinking Pinot will come out as the best French though don't think he'll win. Alaphilippe is too much of a favorite, too much pressure and one Igls too much. Why there's not much talk about Valverde? I don't think him cracking at the end of Vuelta is relevant to Sunday.

Plus he has the smallest amount of km's this year since 2009. I think the old man is going to be on top of his game.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

It will be the Yates twins versus the French 3 Musketeers

Talking of which who is the french leader ? I suppose Allaphillipe but Bardet climbs better and is a top descender as well
Pinot though may have the best form

I'd say Pinot is the most likely to win. He neither has Alaphilippe's sprint nor Bardet's descent but he had a close to perfect preparation and has shown he can be very strong in mountainous one day races before (he was the only one with Nibali over the top of Civiglio in Lombardia last year)

When Pinot attacked in the Vuelta Yates didn't need to react. This time he will react, and with a finish after a descent I don't see Pinot winning. Alaphilippe is a much better finisher. Bardet is a good descender, but it won't be easy to finish solo.

France is maybe the strongest team, but they need to be very careful when and who they send into the moves. I think Pinot is the strongest of them, and I would save him for a very late move. Alaphilippe is also a very strong candidate, but this race could turn out to be too much for him. Bardet and Gallopin are also very interesting cards.

 

[Andy262]

Well I'm hoping Katarzyna Nieuwadoma can derail the Dutch Express today. Will need a bit of luck I guess. Have a couple of quid ew on Jolanda Neff too.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

It will be the Yates twins versus the French 3 Musketeers

Talking of which who is the french leader ? I suppose Allaphillipe but Bardet climbs better and is a top descender as well
Pinot though may have the best form

I'd say Pinot is the most likely to win. He neither has Alaphilippe's sprint nor Bardet's descent but he had a close to perfect preparation and has shown he can be very strong in mountainous one day races before (he was the only one with Nibali over the top of Civiglio in Lombardia last year)

When Pinot attacked in the Vuelta Yates didn't need to react. This time he will react, and with a finish after a descent I don't see Pinot winning. Alaphilippe is a much better finisher. Bardet is a good descender, but it won't be easy to finish solo.

France is maybe the strongest team, but they need to be very careful when and who they send into the moves. I think Pinot is the strongest of them, and I would save him for a very late move. Alaphilippe is also a very strong candidate, but this race could turn out to be too much for him. Bardet and Gallopin are also very interesting cards.

Possibly other teams will rely on France to chase or shut down different dangerous attacks, this will tire and deplete their riders. Then I don't think the team is all in for Alaphilippe, I'm afraid it'll be the three amigos French version.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

It will be the Yates twins versus the French 3 Musketeers

Talking of which who is the french leader ? I suppose Allaphillipe but Bardet climbs better and is a top descender as well
Pinot though may have the best form

I'd say Pinot is the most likely to win. He neither has Alaphilippe's sprint nor Bardet's descent but he had a close to perfect preparation and has shown he can be very strong in mountainous one day races before (he was the only one with Nibali over the top of Civiglio in Lombardia last year)

When Pinot attacked in the Vuelta Yates didn't need to react. This time he will react, and with a finish after a descent I don't see Pinot winning. Alaphilippe is a much better finisher. Bardet is a good descender, but it won't be easy to finish solo.

France is maybe the strongest team, but they need to be very careful when and who they send into the moves. I think Pinot is the strongest of them, and I would save him for a very late move. Alaphilippe is also a very strong candidate, but this race could turn out to be too much for him. Bardet and Gallopin are also very interesting cards.

Possibly other teams will rely on France to chase or shut down different dangerous attacks, this will tire and deplete their riders. Then I don't think the team is all in for Alaphilippe, I'm afraid it'll be the three amigos French version.

Bardet and Pinot will follow serious moves on Igls. Alaphilippe will have to survive 'til Höll with Molard, Gallopin, Barguil to protect him.

 

[Red Rick]

I wonder how many attacks will actually happen on the flats.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

About the women: now that Emma Johansson isn't there anymore I don't know who to cheer for. Who's most likely to finish second or third in every championship for the next decade?

Elisa or Kasia are probably your best bets for that. Especially if we have a few hilly major races coming up with Innsbruck, Aigle, Tokyo. They'll make every selection, and be combative enough to force one otherwise, but neither of them can sprint so they'll have to win solo or from a small group against one another or maybe one of the other complete non-sprinters in the field like Merino or Hall. Getting rid of all of the Dutch to get to that eventuality seems fairly unlikely.

Well I'm hoping Katarzyna Nieuwadoma can derail the Dutch Express today. Will need a bit of luck I guess. Have a couple of quid ew on Jolanda Neff too.

Neff is a very interesting wildcard because she's been great in every climbing road race she's ever done, but she's very much out of practice racing against this kind of field on the road, having only done the Swiss nationals since Rio. As above, Kasia would need to drop both Annemiek and Anna to win I think, and the Dutch strength in numbers should tell, everybody is going to be looking at Kasia too, since she's a) one of the best climbers in the field, especially for this kind of mid-length climb (she's struggled at times with the 10km+ types), b) riding at a deficit, numbers/team strength-wise, to the US, Netherlands and Italy, who have the other frontline contenders (other than Moolman-Pasio who will similarly be marked), and c) famed for her combativity.

I very much expect her to give it a go anyway if she has any kind of racing form - she made a mess of the Ardennes after peaking too early (though that did garner her the win in the Trofeo Alfredo Binda) and wasn't at her best in the Giro or La Course, but she is in good form after winning the very mountainous Tour de l'Ardêche a couple of weeks ago, probably the best marker anybody's laid down in recent weeks for this race in terms of profile, and we all know that if Kasia has the legs, she'll try to attack, because it's what she does. "I am not a sprinter, it can never happen that I will win from a group, the way to win is always by attacking".

I would expect that on that front, Kasia, Jolanda, Cille and Ash are the main ones to watch because they are the ones who have the strongest deficits in terms of team strength for this parcours, ability to take it from a group, or both. The Dutch will either mark groups or use Ensing or Brand (maybe van Dijk) as decoys in earlier moves to allow their hydra-head to be fresh for later. Guarnier may be best marking moves and using her sprint strength, in which case the US will probably use Hall or Winder in earlier moves.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Has Colombia always worn this Belgian-wannabe kit? Has been bugging me in every race so far this year but i can't recall if they wore these in past editions. Not that i think they aren't free to chose what to wear, but especially from helicopter shots, it's difficult to see which jersey it is (Belgian or Colombian).

 

[tobydawq]

Re:

Has Colombia always worn this Belgian-wannabe kit? Has been bugging me in every race so far this year but i can't recall if they wore these in past editions. Not that i think they aren't free to chose what to wear, but especially from helicopter shots, it's difficult to see which jersey it is (Belgian or Colombian).

No, they haven't used it before. Really odd change of clothes.

 

[Red Rick]

Okay I'm not very up to speed on women's cycling. How does 156km on this parcours compare to other big races?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Re:

Okay I'm not very up to speed on women's cycling. How does 156km on this parcours compare to other big races?

156km is pretty long for women's cycling, though races are getting longer on average. The max average stage length has been increased from 100k to 130k in recent years. Nevertheless, this is a tough race, profile-wise it's most comparable to something like an Emakumeen Bira stage but it's about 33% longer than those. Trofeo Binda is perhaps your other comparison point, but the climbing is easier in that one and it's just under 140km. None of the 'normal' races that are this long have as tough a parcours as this, at least with this kind of field. There was a 140km mountain stage in the Tour de l'Ardêche but with no Annemiek, Ash, Elisa or Anna to judge form of, it's hard to say how representative it is.

Race situation coming toward the end of the flat part:

Aurela Nerlo (POL), Ana Cristina Sanabria (COL) tête de la course
Emma Norsgaard (DEN), Lotta Lepistö (FIN) +1'30"
Vita Heine (NOR), Kseniya Dobrynina (RUS), Nicole Hänselmann (SUI), Tereza Korvasová (CZE) +2'40"
Péloton +3'10"

Sanabria is a useful climber - she was 8th in La Course over the Col d'Izoard last season - but not too much help likely to come there. Nerlo is a 20yo whose role is basically to let Niewiadoma have an easy ride in the péloton, same likely for Norsgaard, who's 19, but an ex national champion, her role will likely be to let Cille ride comfortably in the bunch, absolved of any chase responsibilities. Lepistö is probably making hay while the sun shines knowing she has no chance once the climbers kick on.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Anemiek van Evenepoel needs to chase!

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Okay I'm not very up to speed on women's cycling. How does 156km on this parcours compare to other big races?

156km is pretty long for women's cycling, though races are getting longer on average. The max average stage length has been increased from 100k to 130k in recent years. Nevertheless, this is a tough race, profile-wise it's most comparable to something like an Emakumeen Bira stage but it's about 33% longer than those. Trofeo Binda is perhaps your other comparison point, but the climbing is easier in that one and it's just under 140km. None of the 'normal' races that are this long have as tough a parcours as this, at least with this kind of field. There was a 140km mountain stage in the Tour de l'Ardêche but with no Annemiek, Ash, Elisa or Anna to judge form of, it's hard to say how representative it is.

Race situation coming toward the end of the flat part:

Aurela Nerlo (POL), Ana Cristina Sanabria (COL) tête de la course
Emma Norsgaard (DEN), Lotta Lepistö (FIN) +1'30"
Vita Heine (NOR), Kseniya Dobrynina (RUS), Nicole Hänselmann (SUI), Tereza Korvasová (CZE) +2'40"
Péloton +3'10"

Sanabria is a useful climber - she was 8th in La Course over the Col d'Izoard last season - but not too much help likely to come there. Nerlo is a 20yo whose role is basically to let Niewiadoma have an easy ride in the péloton, same likely for Norsgaard, who's 19, but an ex national champion, her role will likely be to let Cille ride comfortably in the bunch, absolved of any chase responsibilities. Lepistö is probably making hay while the sun shines knowing she has no chance once the climbers kick on.

Good to know

This is gonna go way over 4 hours, so I guess thats a first for many

 

[Rollthedice]

This first serious climb is doing big damage.

 

[spalco]

Pretty selective climb for the women already.