Amsterhammer said:
I have always thought that the US must have some sort of electronic evidence about exactly what happened, and from whose territory the missile was launched. Suspicious minds might infer certain conclusions from the complete lack of any public evidence from the US. I have no ideological axe to grind, I simply want those responsible for this outrage to be identified, apprehended, tried, and punished. Whoever they are.
It's a tough situation with the loss of close to 300 lives in an instant. It could have been worse, since there was a Singapore Airlines A380 seating 400-500 passengers on the same trajectory a few km behind. I wrote this back in July/august I think:
Who done it?:
It was the Russians/Pro Russian seperatists. The Buk-m1 crew were likely Russian military or recently serving military who would likely have gotten a refresher course in Russia before deployment.
How did they do it?:
TEL: Transport Erector Launcher
TELAR: Transport Erector Launcher and Radar
IFF: Identification Friend or Foe
They likely received a TELAR(might have been 3), either from Russian stocks or Ukrainian captured in Crimea. Mind I'm still unsure if the Ukrainians have the m1 version at all.
The Telars have a tracking radar, but they need to be connected to a search radar to work as the system is designed. The search radar basically tells the TELAR which area the target to be tracked is. However if I have understood it correctly, the Telar can be used as a search radar over a very limited space. Hence If one knows from where a target is approaching one can engage the target.
Why did they do it?
It was a mistake. The seps seemed quite sure that they had shot down a Ukrainian AN-26, bragging about it minutes later(before they realized their mistake).
How the fvck do you shoot down a civilian airliner by mistake?
There are IFF systems, experienced operators, judgment and rules of engagement that are meant to prevent this. Somehow all of these elements were missing at the same time for the seps. It could be user error, it could be a *** spotter thinking an AN-26 propeller aircraft with a max ceiling at 26.000 feet is what they are seeing that was actually a 777 jet flying at 32.000 feet at twice the speed of an AN-26. It could also be that more of the safety systems needed a search radar to work. Or that perhaps a failsafe system did not work as advertised by the manufacturer. It could also be that there was an an-26 in the general area at the time adding to the potential for mistakes.
Why was a civilian airliner flying over a combat zone?
Lack of imagination and bureaucratic inertia. Planes fly over combat zones all the time. No one has imagined that missile systems capable of destroying aircraft at such a high altitude could become available to non state actors. The reason for this is that these systems are huge and complex. It's also assumed that no one would be so insane as to give these systems to non state actors. Especially without making sure all needed safety systems are in place, which usually requires even more complexity and bulk.
Then there is the bureaucratic inertia. The clues of the new "separatist" capability should perhaps have been ringing alarm bells on the 14th when an AN-26 flying at 22.000 feet IIRC was shot down. However, I don't think they were quite sure what destroyed it. It could have been the Russian Air force, or perhaps Russian Air defense systems stationed in Russia. And this aircraft was flying at half the speed of an airliner and 10.000 feet lower, so it shouldn't have any implications for civilian traffic. Also it was forbidden to fly below 26.000 feet already.
This news story published 17.th July before the MH17 shoot down:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28345039
A Ukrainian security spokesman has accused Russia's air force of shooting down one of its jets while it was on a mission over Ukrainian territory. Russia's defence ministry called the accusation "absurd", Russian state media reported.
Rebels in eastern Ukraine say they shot down two Su-25 jets on Wednesday. The Ukrainian government also accused Russia of shooting down an An-26 transport plane over eastern Ukraine on Monday, with the loss or reported capture of its crew members.
Ukrainian officials sought to argue that pro-Russian separatist rebels could not have downed the plane because they lacked missiles to hit it at high altitude.
(my selective extracts)
The information that the AN-26 flew at 22.000 feet only became public later btw. Anyway you can see the thinking of Ukrainian officials at the time. The rebels do not have the capability to hit something at 30.000+ feet. But the Russians do. Hence they had at that time not connected the dots. or had enough dots to connect in order to figure out the rebels had medium range surface to air missile systems, and draw the conclusions that perhaps having airliners fly in the area was a bad idea.
So who is responsible? The guys that pull the trigger? The incompetent spotter? Putin for allowing this system to be sent into Ukraine? The Ukrainian government for not knowing and understanding the danger? The international aviation authorities for not understanding the danger? Same for the airline?
Will they be held accountable? In my thinking, the responsible one is Putin. And I don't see a realistic way for him to be held accountable.
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