World Politics

[python]

not withstanding that i cant understand WHY would assad need a chemical attack when he just won 95% of east goutha AND, important, just today reached an agreement with the remaining islamists to evacuate peacefully....that is, assad allegedly used a chemical one day before he had won 100% of the damask suburb where the attack is purported.

interesting what will happen in the next 24-48 h with the trump allusion to a military strike on syria...

the russians warned once and then repeated on 2-3 occasions they will respond militarily both against the projectiles and the carrier of such. which in plain english means - shooting down cruise missiles, the craft and ships launching them. i tend to think they WILL b/c a failure to keep the word will greatly erode their cred with sysria, iran and even turkey.

is trump ready for a confrontation with a nuclear super power ? i dont think he is, but i am an amateur military strategist.

 

[Beech Mtn]

False flag done precisely because Trump would like to pull out of Syria?
War Inc must have it's way. Where was John McCain?
Crap, Bolton starts tomorrow.

 

[macbindle]

Looks like the Israelis have used the chemical attack as a backdrop for an attack on Iran (In Syria).

Trump continues to look beholden to Putin. Can't stop the sanctions because Congress won't let him, but can pull out of Syria, gifting it to Russia.

 

[Robert5091]

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5224945,00.html

US denies Syrian reports of attack on air base, Israel stays silent

A Syrian military source was quoted as saying air defences shot down eight missiles fired at the base, also known as the Tiyas Airbase, where defence analysts say there are large deployments of Russian forces, and where jets fly regular sorties to strike rebel-held areas.

The US Pentagon said it was not conducting air strikes in Syria "at this time," formally denying the Syrian state television report.

When asked about the explosions, an Israeli spokeswoman declined to comment.

This was probably planned before the "chemical attack".

 

[djpbaltimore]

Re:

Anyway, back to grown up conversation. I have been reading this blog recently:

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk

written by a former UK Ambassador to Uzbekistan. It's worth reading why it is that he is an ex-ambassador, as well as his thoughts on the Skripal affair.

Murray was hip-deep in the DNC-Wikileaks obfuscation campaign. I would take his opinion with a grain of salt.

not withstanding that i cant understand WHY would assad need a chemical attack when he just won 95% of east goutha AND, important, just today reached an agreement with the remaining islamists to evacuate peacefully....that is, assad allegedly used a chemical one day before he had won 100% of the damask suburb where the attack is purported.

interesting what will happen in the next 24-48 h with the trump allusion to a military strike on syria...

the russians warned once and then repeated on 2-3 occasions they will respond militarily both against the projectiles and the carrier of such. which in plain english means - shooting down cruise missiles, the craft and ships launching them. i tend to think they WILL b/c a failure to keep the word will greatly erode their cred with sysria, iran and even turkey.

is trump ready for a confrontation with a nuclear super power ? i dont think he is, but i am an amateur military strategist.

I see it reported that Jaish al Islam had wanted to stay in the city and only agreed to leave because of the attack. There is really no 'good' time to use chemical weapons, but in those terms, it would appear that the attack served an important strategic purpose.

A similar deal for Douma had foundered in recent days over the insistence of the local rebel group, Jaish al-Islam, that it wanted to stay in the city. But after the alleged chemical attack, which followed an intense bombardment that began on Friday and appeared aimed at forcing a deal, negotiators said they had reached an agreement that would allow the exile of fighters and those who wish to leave from among the civilians.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/09/douma-inhabitants-prepare-leave-deadly-syria-chemical-attack

 

[python]

the most recent attack on the syrian airbase is very interesting to look at from the point of what the immediate parties involved said (or did not) or what they did or did not do in the immediate aftermath of the attack...this way, at least in my case, it is possible to draw some tentative opinions as to the purpose of the strike, its relative success and what unspoken messages are being sent...

1st off, the us officially denied being involved and israel, very much unlike the last time the same facility was attacked in february, is totally silent. then israel admitted the attack AND the loss of one f-16. it was a surprise then not only b/c they more often either deny or say nothing, but also they admitting the effectiveness of the syrian counter-fire. what has changed in just 2 months ?

somewhat surprisingly, the most substantive OFFICIAL details are coming from the russian military, which in turn had very rarely commented on the israel- syria/iran clashes. they said 2 israeli planes launched 8 missiles from the lebanese airspace w/o crossing into syria. remarkably, the russians asserted that 5 of the 8 guided missiles were shot down by syria.. it seems to me they are sending a message that it was the old, perhaps upgraded anti-air systems that did so much damage to the attacker, and that the russian newest systems are even more potent. obviously the message is not for israel, but washington...by the same token, THE TIMING of the attack may indicate it was at the us request to TEST the anti-air systems before america settled on its own promised 'punishment.

i would not exclude it was indeed the american test conducted by israel and that russia is so talkative of some detals may confirm both the premise of the hypothesis and their readiness to play the hard ball.

that is, to respond militarily to the us strike on syria if and when it is coming.

 

[macbindle]

It looks like it was an attack on Iranian assets. It could be a number of things, not least of which may be an Israeli attempt to provoke an Iranian response and thereby draw the US (and SA) into a war with Iran. Or it may be a plot hatched by all three against Iran.

 

[python]

Mexico puts U.S. ties under review as Trump stirs new tensions
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-usa/mexico-puts-u-s-ties-under-review-as-trump-stirs-new-tensions-idUSKBN1HG2LM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29

The Mexican government’s decision was backed by opposition lawmakers, who said it vindicated the Senate’s call last week for the government to end cooperation on migration and security

the anti-american sentiment at the moment is driven by anti-trump sentiment. an american-mexican (or mexican american) couple we are very closed to thinks the antipathy towards 'anglos' is more serious than most americans realize.

one can only wonder if the 'security' mentioned in the quote will one day result in chinese or russian military installations in mexico not dissimilar to what the us military installations claims in the chinese o russian hoods. after all, everyone is claiming national security for posting their soldiers abroad. somehow it seems unthinkable to most americans to experience the security blowback in their own backyard. if mexico is ever pushed by the us to go that way, it will become far more serious, mainly due to its proximity and size, than the cuban missile crisis ever was

 

[djpbaltimore]

Why would Mexico invite Russian or Chinese military into their country? I'm sure that would be really popular.

 

[python]

to prevent more new mexicos ?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Crimea? Tibet? If you think US is likely to invade Mexico, I got news for you. It ain't 1848 any more.

 

[Unchained]

Re:

to prevent more new mexicos ?

Thanks for the laugh.. I drank beer over the weekend with a Mexican motorcycle club.. not what it sounds like.. mostly old guys with wives on the back enjoying awesome Baja sunshine..,25 peso beer..
I was shown no less than 5 funny cartoon drawings..all of Trump.. the one with Trump looking over the border wall and getting flipped off by a hand shaped cactus.. pretty funny..
Most Mexicans are not political at all.. they are light years ahead of us in lost faith in the process and corruption. The few people I have talked with about it see everything going wrong, the Trump fued is pushing candidates that are mainly focused on fighting him, rather than furthering the goals of the country and it's people..
A crazy bad thing is really low wages, unions and politicians will get a free pass if 75% of the campaign is aiming for retribution to repeated Donald insults.. it's almost like the economy is way behind on the priority scale

 

[python]

the diplomatic hurdles to the rus- *** military confrontation in syria have just been removed. less than an hour ago russia vetoed the us unsc proposal while the russian proposal was also blocked.

what do we haave in terms of cold facts favoring the direct and sadly ill-projectable military clash btwn russia and the us in the next few hours ?

one, trump has cancelled his trip to the s. america summit citing the situation in syria

two, as reported by non-western media, several russian generals, including a former chief of staff have publicly reiterated the tough message of a sure response if they are attacked. 'it is a given and has the approval of the supreme commander', one general said.

what else is a cold fact ? trump is not a general nor ever could have been since he's and obvious buffoon. though, i would not deny him (dont over read) some brain, balls and imagination dreaming himself a general.

thus, my hope is that the rational american soldiers who will be tasked to clean up (and perhaps die again) defending the politicians lies, will prevail.

if they dont, we are up for some fireworks that may easily escalate beyond any prediction.

my personal prediction is that the us strike will take place, it will be at the syrian field units, but it will be so widely dispersed to avoid the russian counter-fire, that it will be rendered useless militarily.

 

[djpbaltimore]

And the end result is that Syria will continue to use chemical weapons because Russia has their back. Hard to believe that a conflict like this can feature two more loathsome individuals than the execrable Donald Trump. Sad!

 

[Merckx index]

The Russian ambassador to the UN didn't just deny Russian involvement in the attack, as of course one would expect. He's been denying that there even was a chemical attack! That seems to me a risky move unless you're quite certain, because if a chemical attack can be proven, Russia's credibility takes a huge hit. But it may be hard to establish, because as Python notes, Russia has already vetoed a US proposal for an independent investigation, and of course the longer the scene remains uninvestigated, the colder the trail of evidence becomes. I would think there would be some evidence from victims treated in hospitals, but I haven't heard much.

I have to say, though, that the same logic that leads me to believe that Russia was behind the attack in Britain also leads me to believe they had nothing to do with the one in Syria. The main reason for fingering Putin in Britain is elimination--I can't see why the British government would want to make relations with him worse. But the same logic says Russia would not use chemicals in Syria. The same goes, as Python pointed out, to Assad as well, though I'm not sure he's as rational as Putin is.

my personal prediction is that the us strike will take place, it will be at the syrian field units, but it will be so widely dispersed to avoid the russian counter-fire, that it will be rendered useless militarily.

Just like last time. Weren't Syrian planes flying out of that field a day after that strike?

We're really entering lala land now, where U.S.-Russian relations are about as bad as they've been since the cold war, at the same time as there's an investigation into whether Trump was elected with the help of Putin.

 

[Alpe73]

The Russian ambassador to the UN didn't just deny Russian involvement in the attack, as of course one would expect. He's been denying that there even was a chemical attack! That seems to me a risky move unless you're quite certain, because if a chemical attack can be proven, Russia's credibility takes a huge hit. But it may be hard to establish, because as Python notes, Russia has already vetoed a US proposal for an independent investigation, and of course the longer the scene remains uninvestigated, the colder the trail of evidence becomes. I would think there would be some evidence from victims treated in hospitals, but I haven't heard much.

I have to say, though, that the same logic that leads me to believe that Russia was behind the attack in Britain also leads me to believe they had nothing to do with the one in Syria. The main reason for fingering Putin in Britain is elimination--I can't see why the British government would want to make relations with him worse. But the same logic says Russia would not use chemicals in Syria. The same goes, as Python pointed out, to Assad as well, though I'm not sure he's as rational as Putin is.

my personal prediction is that the us strike will take place, it will be at the syrian field units, but it will be so widely dispersed to avoid the russian counter-fire, that it will be rendered useless militarily.

Just like last time. Weren't Syrian planes flying out of that field a day after that strike?

We're really entering lala land now, where U.S.-Russian relations are about as bad as they've been since the cold war, at the same time as there's an investigation into whether Trump was elected with the help of Putin.

Slightly off topic ... but you just have to read Daniel Ellsberg's Doomsday Machine. Gobsmacker.

 

[macbindle]

It had better be good. Ive just ordered it on your recommendation!

 

[Alpe73]

Re:

It had better be good. Ive just ordered it on your recommendation!

No worries (about the book). Just hope you get to read it before there's a big feckin mushroom cloud outside your window, Mac! :lol:

And ... as a primer ... better re-watch Dr. Strangelove. :geek:

 

[macbindle]

Re: Re:

It had better be good. Ive just ordered it on your recommendation!

And ... as a primer ... better re-watch Dr. Strangelove. :geek:

I love a good documentary

 

[python]

just got a push mail from the times that britain wont join the us strike in syria citing more evidence is needed. they now talk evidence :surprised:

it is surprising to me, though, to an extent the position seems to stem in part from the lack of domestic consensus and in part from the un special envoy who said they CANT be sure of the attack...besides, i read somewhere in a german source this morn that the org for the prohibition of chem weapons was going to visit the alleged attack site..
all of this more or less jives with the russian un envoy proposal who urged to visit (and offered a full protection) for an international expert body.

dont know how to interpret the news further and if it will have an effect on the buffoon in chief. would not exclude also that a fresh (but hardly new) statement by a lebanon ambassador had no effect:

Russia will comply with its president’s statement on US aggression against Syria, downing the US missiles,” Ambassador Alexander Zasypkin was quoted as saying by al-Manar TV. He added that the sites from which the missiles were fired would also be targeted

 

[djpbaltimore]

The Russian ambassador to the UN didn't just deny Russian involvement in the attack, as of course one would expect. He's been denying that there even was a chemical attack! That seems to me a risky move unless you're quite certain, because if a chemical attack can be proven, Russia's credibility takes a huge hit. But it may be hard to establish, because as Python notes, Russia has already vetoed a US proposal for an independent investigation, and of course the longer the scene remains uninvestigated, the colder the trail of evidence becomes. I would think there would be some evidence from victims treated in hospitals, but I haven't heard much.

I have to say, though, that the same logic that leads me to believe that Russia was behind the attack in Britain also leads me to believe they had nothing to do with the one in Syria. The main reason for fingering Putin in Britain is elimination--I can't see why the British government would want to make relations with him worse. But the same logic says Russia would not use chemicals in Syria. The same goes, as Python pointed out, to Assad as well, though I'm not sure he's as rational as Putin is.

my personal prediction is that the us strike will take place, it will be at the syrian field units, but it will be so widely dispersed to avoid the russian counter-fire, that it will be rendered useless militarily.

Just like last time. Weren't Syrian planes flying out of that field a day after that strike?

We're really entering lala land now, where U.S.-Russian relations are about as bad as they've been since the cold war, at the same time as there's an investigation into whether Trump was elected with the help of Putin.

These are the same Russians that said a UN convoy spontaneously combusted. These are the same Russians that have refused to admit that a single civilian has been killed by them in Syria. I don't think they care what the rest of the world thinks.

I don't think they are behind the attack either, but I think that they have enabled the Syrian regime who did the attack. Whether that was through explicit permission, or willful blindness is another story.

just got a push mail from the times that britain wont join the us strike in syria citing more evidence is needed. they now talk evidence :surprised:

You do realize that the Skripal attack happened on their own soil, allowing their own experts a wealth of firsthand evidence? Obviously, this is not the case in Syria. The pertinent word in that phrase is 'more'. I don't find their stance to be hypocritical in the slightest. Even if the evidence were equal in the two instances, the threshold required for diplomatic action versus military action should be vastly different IMO.

 

[macbindle]

Is it coincidence that Bin Salman has been doing the rounds recently around UK, US and France, and here he pops up only too willing to allow attacks from SA bases?

And lo a chemical attack in Syria. It may well have happened, but who is to say it wasn't carried out by one of the jihadi groups on their captive civilian populations? A western strike would benefit them more than a chemical attack benefits Assad.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I think this twitter thread sums up my opinion on the Syrian situation. I can almost buy a single false flag, but the sheer number of attacks by the regime is hard to overlook.

Since the US airstrikes in Syria last year following the Khan Sheikhoun Sarin attack there's been multiple, well documented, chlorine attacks. Trump's red line was no more effective than Obama's red line at stopping chemical attacks. The same pattern is repeated again and again, Assad's forces slowly escalate the use of chemical weapons with the world turning a blind eye, until there's an attack with lots of victims and there's an international reaction, and after the use of CW slowly ramps up again. At no point has the risk of using CW by the Syrian government outweighed the benefits, hence their continued use of CW. It's pretty simple.

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/984012551448137731

 

[macbindle]

What is the benefit to Assad of an attack on Ghoutta?

It would be a high risk strategy risking providing a whole bunch of countries (USA, SA, Israel + whoever else want to come along for the ride) with a pretext for pushing ba k Iran and Russia.

Besides Assad almost has Ghoutta.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Basically what I posted the other day. It was reported that the attack was the instigator for the last rebels to leave quietly. To use an analogy, why did the USA use atomic weapons when they also had the upper hand over Japan?

Also, turn the situation around. What does anyone have to gain by staging a false flag attack? A largely symbolic US missile campaign?

Also, although still a violation, chlorine attacks fall into more of a gray area going by the 2013 Assad agreement with Obama.