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ToreBear said:
Bustedknuckle said:
python said:
iran has promised a harsh and surprising response to the us scrapping the nuclear deal, which seems a given having in mind the new hawks in the trump band...

i wonder what that implies since the harshest steps - like leaving the non-proliferation treaty - would likely get iran in hot water with europe, which currently supports the deal. i personally think that macron may get trump to agree to another 3 months extension, but it matters little at this point since i doubt iran is going to sit by depending on the trump whim or good will. i also cant see at this point how trump can bring the pressure short of an outright attack on the nuclear facilities that would reverse iran even in the slightest.

i see it as a lose-lose for america or for the west in general if europe prostitutes itself once again. in fact, i cant see any winners if the deal collapses, except hoping that europe get some balls and accelerate its sovereignty seeing another fiasco attaching itself to the us foreign policy.

cant see how china or russia can benefit from a nuclear-armed iran, but it is also clear they arent going to do american bidding while having been waged a trade war against or being under the sanctions.
Bolton wants donnie to jump off the Iran Nuke deal..so Iran can start enrichment again, so he can convince donnie to hit Iran militarily..won't be the cake walk the one in Iraq was(either GW 1 or 2) but a whole different gig with Iran.

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/opinion/to-stop-irans-bomb-bomb-iran.html

Bolton is a fool is a fool's administration..He STILL believes WMD's were in Iraq..he's trump's Goring w/a mustache.
I'm hoping fool+fool=wise

Or fool + fool + actual power = realization of consequences.

And with all this hope, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Mueller will save the day.
Gonna have to be a DEM congress tho..I think if impeachment goes forward..with a DEM House but GOP senate, it'll all be eyewash..
The first step, impeachment, is a formal accusation by a simple majority of the House of Representatives. This vote leaves the accused in office, while he is "tried" by the Senate. A two-thirds majority there results in removal from office.
 
Aug 9, 2012
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@Bustedknuckle

What I'm wondering about is what type of crime could turn republicans against him. At what point will Country>party for enough members of the House. Or will we ever reach that point?

If the Dems get congress and it's up to the Senate, I have more faith in Senate Republicans(don't need all of them) to do what is right.
 
Re:

ToreBear said:
@Bustedknuckle

What I'm wondering about is what type of crime could turn republicans against him. At what point will Country>party for enough members of the House. Or will we ever reach that point?

If the Dems get congress and it's up to the Senate, I have more faith in Senate Republicans(don't need all of them) to do what is right.
Mueller's investigation, altho objective by any measure, will be seen as 'biased' by trump the dummy and lotsa GOP. They(starting with donnie) don't understand that the Mueller team is concerned about the constitution, rule of law, truth..trump doesn't understand this because all of his decisions are biased and often colored by lies. It's how he operates. I doubt most GOP will actually recognize the danger of trump.they are so afiad of the deplorable base(altho shrinking) and groups like the NRA..they are cowards.

Remember, simple majority of the House to impeach, but 2/3 of the senate to Convict..
 
What’s with the big change in Kim Jong Un? Even as Trump prepares to back out of the Iran deal, Kim has decided he can trust the U.S. if he gets rid of his nuclear weapons? Seriously? I have some alternative theories:

1. The big payoff. Trump offered Kim $100 million if he would get rid of his nukes. Kim, realizing that Trump pays better money than he can embezzle as a tinpot dictator of a failed state, agreed. When U.S. proxies roll in to stage a bloodless coup, Kim will be enjoying his retirement on an idyllic island far from his homeland. Everyone will be happy except the Chinese and the Russians—though when you think about it, that’s a lot of unhappy folks.

2. An overdose. Remember when Kim secretly visited China? The conventional wisdom was that Xi told Kim to stop the ranting, go to S. Korea and make nice with Moon. But how did they get him to do this? Threats? Harsher sanctions? Nah, they slipped him some Quaaludes, figuring that would mellow him out. But they gave him too much. They didn’t expect him to get that chummy with Trump.

3. The secret deal. Trump and Kim made a grand bargain. Kim agreed to pretend to get rid of his nukes if Trump would pretend to believe him. The inspectors will be allowed to see some token sites, but not the most important ones, and Trump will assure the world that Kim is honorable, so no problem. Kim will have his weapons, so he will be happy. But he won’t be able to threaten SK, the U.S., or anyone else, because that would be admitting he has them. Everyone will be happy until human rights issues are raised.
 
Jul 5, 2009
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Merckx index said:
What’s with the big change in Kim Jong Un? Even as Trump prepares to back out of the Iran deal, Kim has decided he can trust the U.S. if he gets rid of his nuclear weapons? Seriously? I have some alternative theories:

1. The big payoff. Trump offered Kim $100 million if he would get rid of his nukes. Kim, realizing that Trump pays better money than he can embezzle as a tinpot dictator of a failed state, agreed. When U.S. proxies roll in to stage a bloodless coup, Kim will be enjoying his retirement on an idyllic island far from his homeland. Everyone will be happy except the Chinese and the Russians—though when you think about it, that’s a lot of unhappy folks.

2. An overdose. Remember when Kim secretly visited China? The conventional wisdom was that Xi told Kim to stop the ranting, go to S. Korea and make nice with Moon. But how did they get him to do this? Threats? Harsher sanctions? Nah, they slipped him some Quaaludes, figuring that would mellow him out. But they gave him too much. They didn’t expect him to get that chummy with Trump.

3. The secret deal. Trump and Kim made a grand bargain. Kim agreed to pretend to get rid of his nukes if Trump would pretend to believe him. The inspectors will be allowed to see some token sites, but not the most important ones, and Trump will assure the world that Kim is honorable, so no problem. Kim will have his weapons, so he will be happy. But he won’t be able to threaten SK, the U.S., or anyone else, because that would be admitting he has them. Everyone will be happy until human rights issues are raised.
The change isn't with Kim Jong Un. The world has shifted. Compared to previous reunification efforts, things are different this time because:

- North Korea has a credible deterrence with whatever nukes and missiles they possess.
- China and Russia both possess carrier killer hypersonic missiles.
- The BRI could possibly terminate in Wonsan and Nampo.

So if you can't mess with North Korea anymore, can't hurt them economically, and they have a path towards prosperity....

Might as well negotiate favourable terms before things deteriorate further. And frankly, this is all NK has ever wanted. A guarantee of security and the establishment of relations with the South. Tough to do when tens of thousands of Americans and their materiel are sitting on your border and are still AT WAR with you. I'm guessing that the big trade will be international control of the nukes (they won't give them up) for a drastic reduction in America's military posture (they won't leave), and every body agrees to a non-aggression pact. A decade from now NK will have a revitalized economy regardless, and they have already gained security. In other words, it's already over except for the politicians on all sides declaring victory.

John Swanson
 
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5246144,00.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-bases/syrian-army-says-enemy-rockets-hit-military-bases-idUSKBN1I00WR

Iranians reported killed in rocket strikes on regime-controlled military bases in Syria, triggering explosions strong enough to be registered on the Richter scale; Sky News Arabia reports at least 40 killed and 60 wounded, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said 26 pro-government forces killed; Hezbollah-affiliated paper points finger at Israel.

“Syria is being exposed to a new aggression with some military bases in rural Hama and Aleppo hit with enemy rockets,” an army source was quoted as saying without elaborating.

The explosions were registered as a 2.6 magnitude earthquake by the European Mediterranean Seismological Center.
EDIT -UPDATE https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Former-intel-chief-Iranian-dead-in-Syria-blast-spells-looming-payback-553095
Former intel chief: If Iranians dead in Syria blast, payback looms

It is reasonable to assume that the attack in Syria on Sunday night was carried out by an organized army, former IDF intelligence chief Major General Amos Yadlin said on Army Radio on Monday. According to Yadlin, the intensity of the reported explosion could not have come from the rebels in Syria, who are under attack by the Assad regime and are withdrawing from the attack zone.

Asked whether an organized army was behind the attack, Yadlin said that there were two possibilities: "Either the United States augmented the attack it led about two weeks ago, and if it wasn't the United States, that leaves one possibility that I can't confirm."

Being asked about reports of a high number of fatalities, the former head military intelligence emphasized that the important question was whether the were Syrians or Iranians. "If the casualties were Syrians, they would simply be another addition to the half million people already killed in the civil war to this day. If they are Iranians, it will be added to the unfinished business they have with us, and then the month of May will be very volatile."
 
Sep 25, 2009
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reuters:
Israel presents Iran nuclear files, putting pressure on U.S. to scrap deal
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-israel-iran-netanyahu/israel-presents-iran-nuclear-files-putting-pressure-on-u-s-to-scrap-deal-idUSKBN1I11CJ?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29

who gave this zionist bigot killing protesting palestian kids by the dozens as i write the moral right to speak of anyone's nuclear ambitions and the alleged lies about such while its an open secret his own country lied and acted against the international law obtaining the very weapons it fears ?

i am going on a limb and say that ....based on some historical nuclear precedents (say india/pakistan or america/ussr) it may be a balance contributor and eventually a peace promoter via symmetrical threat if: 1) israel gives up its nuclear weapons or 2) iran acquires the equivalent.

since the current israeli zionist arrogance (note i dont refer to many moderate jewish orgs still idealistic about Zion) implies any criticism of its oppression of Palestinians as a virulent antisemitism, i dont hold my breath.

under the circumstances, iran with nuclear would not interrupt the above mentioned precedents.

though i personally prefer neither israel nor iran having the ultimate.
 
Bibi using Trump's ol' tactics ...
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5247048,00.html
Most of the purported evidence Netanyahu unveiled dated to the period before the 2015 accord was signed, although he said Iran had also
kept important files on nuclear technology since then, and continued adding to its "nuclear weapons knowledge".

Intelligence experts and diplomats said he did not seem to have presented a "smoking gun" showing that Iran had violated the terms of the agreement, although he may have helped make a case on behalf of skeptics in the US administration who want to scrap it.
https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Benjamin-Netanyahu/Netanyahus-full-unveiling-of-Irans-secret-nuclear-program-in-text-video-553171
After signing the nuclear deal in 2015, Iran intensified its efforts to hide its secret nuclear files
Files ... from 2015 ... pieces of paper ... Geezus! :(
 
Sep 25, 2009
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@john and ME
re. the 'kim change'...indeed on the surface it is a big step away from the nuclear posturing and the mutual threats just a year ago, but deep down what we have seen and heard so far is a hyperbolic pr with little to no substance. despite the seemingly one-sided retreats by norkors re. closing the nuclear test site and stopping the nuclear test entirely, kim in reality gave away nothing yet and likely will not going forward

little substance so far in my opinion to declare any headway as the western media tried or to trumpet the trump 'hard line is working'. i dont think so... if anything is working, it is the subtle and sly chinese diplomacy imo

kim is not giving away anything and only gaining in the pr field (likely whispered to his ear by the chinese). the fact he declared stopping the tests and closing the test site only means his level of nuclear progress has reached the same level as the other nuclear states. all nuclear states stopped the physical nuclear explosive tests long ago b/c they are no longer needed to keep the nuclear warheads functional.

i view the latest events as both the chinese attempts to take the initiative and, if possible, to maneuver the united states out of its hood.

the south korea simply can not insist on the same level of american military presence when 2 koreas move towards each other. thus, the coming negotiations, if they ever get off the ground, will be about the us withdrawal in exchange for various levels of the norkor 'retreats'.

if anyone wants to understand what exactly the north korea/china will bargain over i suggest to review the iran bargaining not all that long ago. the book is endless and without the serious mutual commitments, there will never be the denuclearized korea. only the naive imo hope for a one-side outcome after kim had a chance to see what happened to saddam and qaddafi in return for their one-sided moves.
 
Re:

python said:
kim is not giving away anything and only gaining in the pr field (likely whispered to his ear by the chinese). the fact he declared stopping the tests and closing the test site only means his level of nuclear progress has reached the same level as the other nuclear states. all nuclear states stopped the physical nuclear explosive tests long ago b/c they are no longer needed to keep the nuclear warheads functional.
I understand that, and assume it's one of several factors leading to the Kim-Moon meeting. The others include much stronger sanctions by the Chinese, and the Olympics, which allowed North and South to work up gradually to a meeting of heads of state. What I don't understand is why Kim didn't start mellowing out last year, when he knew he was near the end of his needed tests. Why all the bellicose talk?

i view the latest events as both the chinese attempts to take the initiative and, if possible, to maneuver the united states out of its hood.
Yet journos in China report that the Chinese are very worried that they, not the U.S., will be left out of the negotiations.

the south korea simply can not insist on the same level of american military presence when 2 koreas move towards each other. thus, the coming negotiations, if they ever get off the ground, will be about the us withdrawal in exchange for various levels of the norkor 'retreats'.
And may allow Kim a way out. He can argue that if he's going to give up his nuclear weapons, the U.S. should give up its weapons, at least those anywhere in the vicinity, such as on roving submarines. He could go even further, and argue that the entire world should be denuclearized.

if anyone wants to understand what exactly the north korea/china will bargain over i suggest to review the iran bargaining not all that long ago. the book is endless and without the serious mutual commitments, there will never be the denuclearized korea. only the naive imo hope for a one-side outcome after kim had a chance to see what happened to saddam and qaddafi in return for their one-sided moves.
And Trump's likely withdrawal from the Iran agreement, now bolstered by Netanyahu, appears to come at the worst possible time. I frankly don't understand why Kim would want even to meet with Trump with this background. Why in the world should he believe the U.S. would honor any agreement?
 
Sep 25, 2009
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Re: Re:

Merckx index said:
python said:
kim is not giving away anything and only gaining in the pr field (likely whispered to his ear by the chinese). the fact he declared stopping the tests and closing the test site only means his level of nuclear progress has reached the same level as the other nuclear states. all nuclear states stopped the physical nuclear explosive tests long ago b/c they are no longer needed to keep the nuclear warheads functional.
I understand that, and assume it's one of several factors leading to the Kim-Moon meeting. The others include much stronger sanctions by the Chinese, and the Olympics, which allowed North and South to work up gradually to a meeting of heads of state. What I don't understand is why Kim didn't start mellowing out last year, when he knew he was near the end of his needed tests. Why all the bellicose talk?
he never 'needed' the tests. as i mentioned earlier, the technology for validating nuclear weapons has long ago reach a point of relying on indirect modeling. no doubt, north korea has reached that capability years ago. the actual blasts were just demonstrations of the capability and testing NOT the weapons but the political opponents red lines. the ever escalating rhetoric on either side was imo a game of brinkmanship which was likely guided from china. at some point, china decided on the new tactic after studying trump and having the olympics coming made it a convenient timing to start since both koreas have a history of 'joining' for the games...the bellicose talk as well as the sudden reversals are the tools of skilled diplomats and politicians, which the chinese imo certainly are, engaged in a search for an advantageous position..that's why i never believed in the seriousness of the chinese sanctions nor their public media (which is state controlled even tighter than in russia).

there is a LOT going on outside the public eye and there is no way for a layman (or even a pundit) to know the details. as is often the case, many factors, as opposed to the western declarations of 'tough sanctions' only, may have contributed to the current 'mellowing'. the sanctions likely played a role along with the above mentioned chinese game of displacing the american military and some other factors we dont know.

as long as north korea is in this 'peace offensive' it is difficult to maintain the existing sanctions and even less logical to impose the new ones. perhaps THAT is part of their game. as to trump quitting the iran deal, i view it as american zionist pressure and as such they could care less about the impact on korea. even obama, as much as he was serious about standing up to them, gave up. such is the pernicious and hurtful influence of this selfish group on the american national interests. my opinion only.
 
Syria, Syria, Syria, Iran, Iran, Iran .... hey, what about that little ol' war we had in Afghanistan?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/05/01/the-afghan-war-isnt-being-won-says-new-pentagon-audit/?wpisrc=nl_todayworld&wpmm=1

Just one day after a double suicide bombing in Kabul killed at least 31 people and wounded scores more, a U.S. military watchdog released a report with a set of dismal statistics on the U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.

The report conflicts with the optimism projected by senior military officials, including U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis.

Here are a few uncomfortable but telling statistics buried in the 262-page report, dated April 30, and released on May 1:

- The Afghan economy — measured in GDP — stopped growing in 2012 and has since retrenched.

- After a $126 billion U.S. relief and reconstruction investment lasting nearly two decades, Afghanistan is the 183rd worst country in the world to “do business.” Less than a third of Afghans are connected to the power grid.
The few economic gains that the United States brought to Afghanistan came from direct spending and are generally considered unsustainable without persistent foreign aid.

- The number of bombs dropped by the Western coalition in Afghanistan in early 2018 was the highest it’s been since 2013. And the number of direct Taliban attacks declined over the winter. But the country remains hugely unstable, with more security incidents last year than ever recorded. Casualties from unexploded ordnance and mines averaged 170 a month last year.

- Suicide attacks in Afghanistan, like those on Monday, went up 50 percent in 2017. Casualties from complex attacks and suicide bombings are steadily rising. Sectarian attacks tripled in 2017.

- America has spent $8.78 billion since 2002 to reduce narcotics production in Afghanistan. But opium growing has steadily increased, with a 63 percent jump in 2017 alone.

- Only 65 percent of the population presently lives under Afghan government control, after direct U.S. expenditures to Afghan security forces of $78 billion. “The overall trend for the insurgency is rising control over the population,” the report states.

- So far, 20,318 Defense Department personnel have been wounded in Afghanistan. The number in 2017 was higher than in 2016 and 2015. At present, there are roughly 14,000 U.S. military personnel in Afghanistan, a number slated to increase.

- The number of serving Afghan military and police, meanwhile, experienced “a sharp decline” last year. Insider attacks by Afghan soldiers are rising. The number of women in uniform is falling.

- Widespread corruption remains a dragging anchor on progress throughout the country. According to the report, the U.S. Department of Justice said in late 2017 that “there has been no follow-up on old [Afghanistan] corruption cases from 2013 and no effort to extradite and prosecute convicted criminals living abroad through international agreements. DOJ attributed these failures to a lack of Afghan government political will.”
Report at https://www.sigar.mil/pdf/quarterlyreports/2018-04-30qr.pdf
 
King Bonnan: "Do I really have to explain how the Israeli government is using the Giro for political point-scoring and the impact this could have on the race? It seems really, really obvious to be honest."

Its hard to tell how much truth there is, but my understanding is that this idea was the brainchild of a Canadian/Israeli Billionaire, who pitched it to Vegni, and then to Netanyahu. I read that Netanyahu put up about $12 MIL for three stages. Maybe this is their way to get more Europeans to come for vacation, but the Giro isn't the Olympics or World Cup in terms of political capitol. Maybe its baby steps and the Giro is the first step.
 
It's about legitimising Israel. Have a major Euro sporting event there...directs attention away from Israeli snipers blowing away unarmed people protesting against the ethnic cleansing that has taken.place and continues so to do.
 
Re:

jmdirt said:
King Bonnan: "Do I really have to explain how the Israeli government is using the Giro for political point-scoring and the impact this could have on the race? It seems really, really obvious to be honest."

Its hard to tell how much truth there is, but my understanding is that this idea was the brainchild of a Canadian/Israeli Billionaire, who pitched it to Vegni, and then to Netanyahu. I read that Netanyahu put up about $12 MIL for three stages. Maybe this is their way to get more Europeans to come for vacation, but the Giro isn't the Olympics or World Cup in terms of political capitol. Maybe its baby steps and the Giro is the first step.
That's $12 million versus $140 billion (Qatar estimated spend, I know that's huge compared to SA but I would guess Israel hosting a world cup would lean more towards the Qatar spend?) so it's fairly clear that the level is different. It is still about legitimising Israel as a state and legitimising the current government and their actions.
 
Yes. It's just all a bit too obvious, and the unveiling of shelves of files looked like a cheap stunt.

I can't help feeling that the UK Labour party 'anti-semitism' row is linked in to this. A year or two ago there was this...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/07/israeli-diplomat-shai-masot-caught-on-camera-plotting-to-take-down-uk-mps

It feels like a big plan all coming together...sink any hopes of peace, declare Jerusalem as capital and thereby make the annexation of the West bank permanent, kill off any political opposition by fair means or foul conflating anti-apartheidism with anti-semitism, fence in the Palestinians on a *** bit of land nobody wants and shoot them dead if they have the temerity to protest with the aim of destroying their hope and spirit.
 
I disagree with those who say that the Giro will distract from what is occurring in Israel. Quite the opposite. Because of the discussion yesterday and today, I have learned things that I din't know before, so clearly this has brought attention to what is happening in that region.
 
Sylvan Adams - the man behind Israel Cycling Academy & bringing the Giro to Israel -
https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Sports/Israels-cycling-godfather-climbs-mountains-553073
“Unlike a soccer match or a basketball game, which take place inside a stadium, cycling takes places outdoors. So for three days, with 16 hours of TV coverage, starting in Jerusalem, our beautiful and important national capital, and then going from Acre in the north all the way down to Eilat they will literally see all the country.”

Adams wants the world to not only see Israel’s scenery, but also show it what he calls normal Israel.

“We will be able to show a billion people without the filter of the traditional media what Israel is really all about,” he explained. “Also to show off that we are democratic and open and pluralistic and free and most importantly that we are safe.”
...
“This truly is a Zionist project,” he stated. “Not just a cycling team, and that is why the name of the country is in the name of the team.
 
Re:

Robert5091 said:
Sylvan Adams - the man behind Israel Cycling Academy & bringing the Giro to Israel -
https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Sports/Israels-cycling-godfather-climbs-mountains-553073
“Unlike a soccer match or a basketball game, which take place inside a stadium, cycling takes places outdoors. So for three days, with 16 hours of TV coverage, starting in Jerusalem, our beautiful and important national capital, and then going from Acre in the north all the way down to Eilat they will literally see all the country.”

Adams wants the world to not only see Israel’s scenery, but also show it what he calls normal Israel.

“We will be able to show a billion people without the filter of the traditional media what Israel is really all about,” he explained. “Also to show off that we are democratic and open and pluralistic and free and most importantly that we are safe.”
...
“This truly is a Zionist project,” he stated. “Not just a cycling team, and that is why the name of the country is in the name of the team.
Adams. That was the Canadian/Israeli billionaire's name that I couldn't think of.
 
Sep 25, 2009
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read several posts above and have this to say...not being the english root speaker, nor even as a 2nd language i dont find 'legitimizing israel' a proper expression. i'd use words like promote, prop etc.

israel is both perfectly legitimate and legal due the un resolution and the historical events leading to the creation of the state. and i'm the one who will not get tired of exposing the zionists confusing antisemitism with legitimate criticism of their abuse and persecution of the palestinians..just saying.
 
Re:

python said:
read several posts above and have this to say...not being the english root speaker, nor even as a 2nd language i dont find 'legitimizing israel' a proper expression. i'd use words like promote, prop etc.

israel is both perfectly legitimate and legal due the un resolution and the historical events leading to the creation of the state. and i'm the one who will not get tired of exposing the zionists confusing antisemitism with legitimate criticism of their abuse and persecution of the palestinians..just saying.
I am a native speaker of English, and a reasonably well-educated one, so I'm not particularly interested in taking English lessons from you...just saying.

"Israel" is far from legitimate. Yes, it may have all but about 30 nations recognising it as a state, but it is 'illegitimately' occupying the West Bank, and blockading the Gaza strip.Crucially, It is currently in the process of annexing one of these occupied territories. Legitimate? No. Overlooked by the West? What do you think.
 
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