World Politics

[python]

^^so far, the absolute majority of the 'news' re the israel-iran military activity is based on the israel official statements. i have even less trust in them than in the official syrian or iranian sources...always arrogant boasting even if part true. i also doubt that bibi, as the same media reported, got a full approval from vlad.

regarding the european response to the us economic blackmail (both wrt to new iranian sanctions and the earlier tariffs on iron and aluminum), it is true that europe is trying to negotiate its way out, but having seen the american reaction so far - which is to give the partners a postponement window - while holding a loaded gun to their head. sooner or later, such a tactic has to be faced with firmer retaliatory actions b/c the us is getting away with its political and trade ultimatums. swallowing it will only cause more blackmail.

it is fair for the us to pass any domestic law re the iran sanctions, but expecting the rest of the world complying with the american law - 'or else' - is beyond arrogant.

the typical american tools of 'compelling' are the usual threats to foreign banks and businesses that exploit the dolar's central role in world trading or the bans on any american parts if an item of trade (say, for example, airbus) contains sub-systems patented by or manufactured in america. given the global penetration of business, it is impossible to find ANY car or airplane that's 100% dependent on one supplier...

what the europeans need to get the f-king balls and start doing is to apply the same logic to american companies dependent on european markets or suppliers. and, most importantly, to give full state protection to those companies likely hurt by the dollar operations restrictions. a limited trade war, if it was what trump was looking for, has to be thrown back at him. and it is not all that scary, b/c such HUGE markets as chinese, indian, russian etc are suffering the same trade arrogance and are likely to cooperate with europe instead of the bullies from americam...just thinking aloud.

 

[King Boonen]

I expect the bargaining to follow the lines that the recent steel and aluminium bargaining has followed. Some deal will be thrashed out that both sides can claim is a victory and pretty much nothing changes. It puts the UK in a difficult position as when Brexit happens the UK may lose the protection of being part of a larger market group. The UK could attempt to use this as an advantage, but the UK Governments' statements about continuing BARJAM would make that difficult.

 

[Robert5091]

We had axis of evil, now we have tentacles of evil ...

https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5257004,00.html

PM Netanyahu: Iran has crossed a red line, its tentacles of evil in Syria will be severed
As Cabinet ministers convene to discuss Iranian rocket strike, Israeli retaliation, PM issues first comments, says, 'We are in protracted campaign, will not allow Iran to militarily entrench in Syria'; 'Anyone preparing to attack us, we'll hit them first,' Netanyahu warns.

Which sort of confirms this -
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/I...ses-in-Syria-calls-Israeli-claims-fake-556073

The IDF announced Thursday morning that 20 rockets were first fired towards Israeli territory from Syria, and that Israel attacked 50 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps targets in response.

"This claim is entirely false," said Jamali Nobandegani of the IDF's statement. "Everyone knows that the Zionist Regime has always attacked first," he said, referring to Israel. "Even before the conflict over ISIS in the region, Israel bombed Syria and attacked the Iraqi atomic weapons program," in a statement to Iran's Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency.

As for Putin/Russia -
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Putin-stops-neither-Iran-nor-Israel-in-Syria-556151

... what Moscow does obviously tell both sides is not to harm Russian interests or assets. The primary Russian asset in Syria is President Bashar Assad, in whose regime Moscow has invested millions of rubles and for whom Russian soldiers have been killed.
Other assets include the Russian naval base at Tartus and the air base at Latakia.

Russia enjoys good relations with Iran, just as it enjoys good relations with Israel. Putin meets periodically with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, just as he meets with Netanyahu, though perhaps not as much. But they do meet, and they do talk. For instance, the two men last met in April and before that last November.

One can assume that just as Netanyahu from time to time entreats Putin to curb Iranian actions in Syria, Rouhani appeals to Putin to stop Israeli actions there also. Putin listens to both and does nothing against either side: He doesn’t curb Israel, and he doesn’t restrict Iran.

As long as Russia’s interests are not harmed, from Putin’s point of view, this particular fight is not Russia’s.

 

[Robert5091]

What Assad & the Iranians think about this would be good to know!
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5257573,00.html

Russia is not in talks with the Syrian government about supplying advanced S-300 ground-to-air missiles and does not think they are needed, the Izvestia daily cited a top Kremlin aide as saying on Friday, in an apparent U-turn by Moscow.

The comments, by Vladimir Kozhin, an aide to President Vladimir Putin who oversees Russian military assistance to other countries, follow a visit to Moscow by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week, who has been lobbying Putin hard not to transfer the missiles.
...
The missile system, originally developed by the Soviet military, but since modernized and available in several versions with significantly different capabilities, fires missiles from trucks and is designed to shoot down military aircraft and short and medium-range ballistic missiles.

Though since been superseded by the more modern S-400 system, the S-300s are still regarded as highly potent and outstrip anything that the Syrian government currently has.

 

[python]

small steps in the RIGHT direction...

Europe moves to safeguard interests in Iran after U.S. pullout
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear/europe-moves-to-safeguard-interests-in-iran-after-u-s-pullout-idUSKBN1IC1JS?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FworldNews+%28Reuters+World+News%29

i have long been an advocate of europe's sovereignty particularly in the area of international relations. imo, it is existential for old europe.

under trump, the us dominance - which even under more internationalist presidents has long seized being about a fair and needed leadership - has turned into threats bordering on blackmail and ultimatums like 'if you dont do what we want, we are going to IMPOSE suffrage on you economic interests'. this is now applied to allies like germany and france. i dont care for good manners, but i always mind arrogance.

i doubt this round will go to europe yet, but hope sovereign nations learn and act like grownups. thinking a tad further, of course the eu disunity and (lets call spade a spade) the euro laziness and complacency are to blame.

perhaps the brexit followed by the exit of the eastern eauropeans that prefer building autocracies, should help the process. but that's too much to wish for in this life.

 

[macbindle]

Ooh look...an entirely unexpected side-effect of Trump and Saudi's scheming over the Iran deal is that oil prices have shot up...

 

[Bustedknuckle]

Re:

Ooh look...an entirely unexpected side-effect of Trump and Saudi's scheming over the Iran deal is that oil prices have shot up...

They'll go even higher once trump the dummy gets his wish and Israel and Iran start fighting a war..

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Re:

Ooh look...an entirely unexpected side-effect of Trump and Saudi's scheming over the Iran deal is that oil prices have shot up...

They'll go even higher once trump the dummy gets his wish and Israel and Iran start fighting a war..

They already are in Syria -
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5258306,00.html

The US is involved too
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...8ed726-4ed7-11e8-af46-b1d6dc0d9bfe_story.html

 

[Bustedknuckle]

Re: Re:

Ooh look...an entirely unexpected side-effect of Trump and Saudi's scheming over the Iran deal is that oil prices have shot up...

They'll go even higher once trump the dummy gets his wish and Israel and Iran start fighting a war..

They already are in Syria -
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5258306,00.html

The US is involved too
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...8ed726-4ed7-11e8-af46-b1d6dc0d9bfe_story.html

Of course and another proxy war between the US and Russia..shades of Afghanistan. trump has no 'policy'..he wants to get rid of ISIL, which helps Syria and hence Iran and Russia...then wants Israel to do their dirty work for them..attack Iran.The strike in the Golan Heights is just the beginning.

 

[Robert5091]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44104600

Shia rivals of Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi have made big gains in Saturday's parliamentary elections, partial results suggest.

With most votes counted, a bloc headed by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and another led by a militia leader are ahead, voting officials are quoted as saying.

They suggest Mr Abadi's governing alliance is running third.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44065739

Iraqis can vote for rival lists of candidates. Most are predominantly Shia or Sunni, though the Kurds have their own lists. The three most likely candidates for prime minister are all Shias.

The current prime minister, Haidar al-Abadi, heads the Nasr list, which is tipped to get the most votes. But under the Iraqi system he will not be able to form a majority government, which means negotiations for a coalition that could go on for months.

Most people believe that Mr Abadi's most serious rival for prime minister is the veteran paramilitary commander Hadi al-Amiri. He heads the Fatah list, which has become the political home of the Shia fighters of the Hashd and their supporters.

The third frontrunner is Nouri al-Maliki, the former prime minister. He was forced out of office in 2014 after IS swept through Iraq, capturing Mosul and great swathes of predominantly Sunni territory.

Mr Maliki's sectarian policies so alienated Sunnis that, at first, many welcomed the jihadists. The brutality of IS quickly changed minds, but by then the jihadists had declared their caliphate.

Sunnis I have spoken to are nervous about the Hashd fighters and their leader and candidate, Mr Amiri. He is very close to his fellow Shias in Iran, which for him is an entirely natural alliance.

It also makes the Iranians, through their friends in the Hashd, the strongest foreign force in Iraq.

 

[python]

zero surprise at the Shia gains in iraq...

it is still a predominantly shia country where iran has continued to spread its influence both due to kin and the anti-west sentiments b/c of illegal invasions...similarly, but in a different context, iran has just clearly gained in lebanon via its arm hezbollah. and in case someone did not notice, iran's biggest extraterritorial investment since its revolution was in syria and it is clearly a success if measured by the assad survival and now his unstoppable taking syria back. that's a 3:0 score. the only place where iran is not yet clearly winning is in yemen where everyone seems to bug down.

that's the real reason for the us withdrawal from a nuclear deal - an attempt to redress and reverse its geopolitical defeats to iran.

if simplified even further, it is the historically dangerous confrontation of 2 grand coalitions - the us/saudi/israel axis against iran/russia/china. with the europeans this time having a big say in where the ball - or bombs/missiles/bullets will fall.

 

[Brullnux]

Pretty devastating events in Gaza, 52 dead and 2,400(!) wounded. I think this one can be laid pretty solidly at the door of Trump. Regardless of your opinion on israel/palestine, to set up an embassy in contested Jerusalem, during some very uneasy peace amidst a battle that has been going on 70 years is extraordinarily reckless. There is a reason why no other president, or country, has done this. This was always going to happen. And is 52 people being killed (with potential escalation from here) worth a symbolic geopolitical move? No.

Obviously, the idf here is at fault as well. A few rocks and badly built molotovs in a country which boasts about how 'liberal' and western it is (the only democracy in the middle east!) shouldn't be met with bullets. But of course, this is also a democracy with worse civil rights than Duterte and Uganda, so maybe we should expect less.

 

[python]

Re:

Pretty devastating events in Gaza, 52 dead and 2,400(!) wounded. I think this one can be laid pretty solidly at the door of Trump. Regardless of your opinion on israel/palestine, to set up an embassy in contested Jerusalem, during some very uneasy peace amidst a battle that has been going on 70 years is extraordinarily reckless. There is a reason why no other president, or country, has done this. This was always going to happen. And is 52 people being killed (with potential escalation from here) worth a symbolic geopolitical move? No.

Obviously, the idf here is at fault as well. A few rocks and badly built molotovs in a country which boasts about how 'liberal' and western it is (the only democracy in the middle east!) shouldn't be met with bullets. But of course, this is also a democracy with worse civil rights than Duterte and Uganda, so maybe we should expect less.

thanks for posting this, brullnuux. you're way to civil towards the despicable crimes of the zionist state. it is a true massacre and the world, including europe are silent

 

[Robert5091]

http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/140520185

Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose al-Sayirun coalition is emerging as the surprise winner of Iraq’s parliamentary election, appeared to call for the formation of a technocratic government in a pun-laden tweet on Monday.

In a clever play on words using the names of several parties and coalitions, Sadr seemed to call for a nonpartisan, cross-sectarian government.
...
Al-Sayirun (Marching Towards Reform), is a coalition of Sadr’s supporters, some secularists, and the Iraqi Communist Party. According to preliminary election results, the alliance has won the most seats, followed by al-Fatih, pushing Haider al-Abadi’s Nasr (Victory) Alliance into third place.

Sadr has long called for a technocratic government in Iraq.

Some have interpreted Sadr’s tweet as a statement of intent to form a roughly cross-sectarian, all-inclusive coalition government.

 

[Bustedknuckle]

Re: Re:

Pretty devastating events in Gaza, 52 dead and 2,400(!) wounded. I think this one can be laid pretty solidly at the door of Trump. Regardless of your opinion on israel/palestine, to set up an embassy in contested Jerusalem, during some very uneasy peace amidst a battle that has been going on 70 years is extraordinarily reckless. There is a reason why no other president, or country, has done this. This was always going to happen. And is 52 people being killed (with potential escalation from here) worth a symbolic geopolitical move? No.

Obviously, the idf here is at fault as well. A few rocks and badly built molotovs in a country which boasts about how 'liberal' and western it is (the only democracy in the middle east!) shouldn't be met with bullets. But of course, this is also a democracy with worse civil rights than Duterte and Uganda, so maybe we should expect less.

thanks for posting this, brullnuux. you're way to civil towards the despicable crimes of the zionist state. it is a true massacre and the world, including europe are silent

Agree but the point is trump is not silent but a loud cheerleader for this..His inbred relatives announcing that Jerusalem is the 'capitol', and markedly exclude the Muslims and their hold on East Jerusalem. Even by the knucklehead Kushner, who is 'supposed' to be working on mid-east peace..how can anybody trust this liar?

nobel peace prize, BS, Prize for the most war mongering leader for sure.

 

[macbindle]

I'm just glad that trivialities such as the dead Palestinians didn't knock out the real main item news story on the BBC today.

 

[Jagartrott]

Israel is completely, utterly insane. So happy the Giro started there to support their tourism aspirations.
I'm waiting for the first accusations of "anti-semitism" thrown around.

Summing up the concern of many, the UN rights office spokesman Rupert Colville told reporters in Geneva: “The mere fact of approaching a fence is not a lethal, life-threatening act, so that does not warrant being shot.

“It seems that anyone is liable to be shot dead,” he added, stressing that international laws that apply to Israel make clear that “lethal force may only be used as a measure of last, not first, resort”.

“It is not acceptable to say that ‘this is Hamas and therefore this is OK’,” Colville added, in an apparent dismissal of Israel’s justification for the high casualty levels among Palestinians in clashes along the border.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-bury-58-people-killed-in-us-embassy-protests

 

[Merckx index]

N. Korea suspends talks with S. Korea, warns U.S., over joint U.S.-SK military exercises.

The U.S. protests that this is not a provocation, it's just a regular exercise. How is N. Korea's testing of missiles any different? NK doesn't have any war planes to test, their entire defense rests on nuclear weapons. But they're supposed to stop testing their defensive readiness, while the U.S. and SK can freely continue with theirs?

It's sometimes break-taking how American foreign policy manages not to see--or pretend not to see--how what it does is exactly what it objects to others doing. But this is unlikely to derail the Kim-Trump talks. More like Kim's saying, just because I made some concessions doesn't mean you don't have to make any.

 

[python]

kim may be fat and ugly, but hardly stupid...only a complete idiot will give up to unilateral demands after seeing what happened to saddam and qaddafi when they did. both are dead and their countries were ruined.

if looked at rationally, the 'warm-up' was always about the mutual moves. refusing the reduction of the us militarism in korea should logically and very properly imo lead to china/norkor STOPPING the one-sided track.

all good-will gesture by norkors were ignored, and if south korea wants to unite the country they need agree to get the balls to and kick out america. or be ready to take a nuclear-armed north by force.

i very much doubt that china will agree to anything less.

that's the key difference btwm north korea today and the iraq/lybia destruction yesterday - the arabic strongmen were left alone to face the west aggression. we still remember the un 'no fly zones' etc...added: for that matter and even more relevantly, that's the reason why syria is NOT going the way of lybia...

someone, somewhere said enough is enough...

added 2: and since we are on the page, and that's perhaps WHY nato has stopped expanding eastward or the long-existing south china sea problems have floated to the top. both examples are quite different from the norkor nuclear dilemma, but imo illustrate the geopolitical ebb and flow of late...

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

Israel is completely, utterly insane. So happy the Giro started there to support their tourism aspirations.
I'm waiting for the first accusations of "anti-semitism" thrown around.

Summing up the concern of many, the UN rights office spokesman Rupert Colville told reporters in Geneva: “The mere fact of approaching a fence is not a lethal, life-threatening act, so that does not warrant being shot.

“It seems that anyone is liable to be shot dead,” he added, stressing that international laws that apply to Israel make clear that “lethal force may only be used as a measure of last, not first, resort”.

“It is not acceptable to say that ‘this is Hamas and therefore this is OK’,” Colville added, in an apparent dismissal of Israel’s justification for the high casualty levels among Palestinians in clashes along the border.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-bury-58-people-killed-in-us-embassy-protests

It's an absolute disgrace. How anyone can claim the murder of dozens of people and the injuring of several thousand during a non-violent protest as self defence and proportionate is just crazy.

 

[python]

some of those kids threw stones...still, is there no others way to control a civilian protest ?? it was a civilian action like many happening daily in europe, except it took place inside a fence of a de fato concentration camp.

people were shot by the military snipers upon approaching the fence...or even when far from

Israeli forces shoot Canadian doctor in Gaza
http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-forces-shoot-canadian-doctor-gaza-1157047681

“I am very seasoned about not being shot at. I know where to stand. I know where to be. I know how not to get shot,” he told the Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail. “Snipers don’t reach me because of mistakes. I did everything right. We were all huddled. It was quiet at the exact moment I got shot.

i am waiting with bated breath for her majesty govt to lead the charge to sanction the zionist criminals as well as dear mutter or the lil napoleon to join in.

that the us is underwriting the crime is no surprise, but why europe does ? wait, i know, we are guilty of antisemitism

 

[macbindle]

Yes, but you are forgetting that the doctor's name is "Dr Tarek Loubani".

Sounds a bit like a standard terrorist name, does it not?

 

[python]

just perused my morning news in search of any concrete moves by the europeans to save the iran nuclear deal via protecting the euro business. in stead of the nitty-gritty details i found that every one is doing a lot of talking, talking and more talking. in fact, i am surprised that the talking heads are not treated more often for their mouth muscle fatigue.

it is a shame that europe is lead by the spineless talking heads while having in its possession all the necessary tools -from strong euro to independent banks to powerful and diverse economy

in that regard i just recalled how decisive and vocal was germany when it was threatening little Greece a few years back over the rescue loans. cowards.

 

[Robert5091]

This is not good news -
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44150762

The Ebola outbreak in Congo has spread from the countryside into a city, prompting fears that the disease will be increasingly difficult to control.

Health Minister Oly Ilunga Kalenga confirmed a case in Mbandaka, a city of a million people about 130km (80 miles) from the area where the first cases were confirmed earlier this month.

The city is a major transportation hub with routes to the capital Kinshasa.

Forty-two people have now been infected and 23 people are known to have died.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

just perused my morning news in search of any concrete moves by the europeans to save the iran nuclear deal via protecting the euro business. in stead of the nitty-gritty details i found that every one is doing a lot of talking, talking and more talking. in fact, i am surprised that the talking heads are not treated more often for their mouth muscle fatigue.

it is a shame that europe is lead by the spineless talking heads while having in its possession all the necessary tools -from strong euro to independent banks to powerful and diverse economy

in that regard i just recalled how decisive and vocal was germany when it was threatening little Greece a few years back over the rescue loans. cowards.

Dealing with Greece and dealing with the USA/Iran/Russia/Israel etc. in the big mess that the US withdrawl from BARJAM is creating are two very different situations. I'm hoping there is a lot of diplomacy going on in the background, hopefully cutting out most of the talking heads so they don't ruin it.