World Politics

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Former World Bank chief economist and Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz came out today harshly critical of the Eurozone's austerity measures, calling them suicide, and something that has never worked in history. Good, short read.

And the funny thing is, germans believe in that BS. It comes from wrong (or no) education & mainstream media propaganda. If they´d only know that depths and assets are equal (actually depths are higher than assets b/c interest only exist as depths, but that´s another story) they´d send Merkel (& the banksters) to the moon and start a revolution.

Because if government don´t "produce" depths, the people must, which leads automatically to mass poverty. The neo liberal captalism never worked (i guess that´s what Stiglitz meant) for 95% of the population. See Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Russia, Poland, USA, Africa, and so on, and now they try that $hit in europe. That may affects me personally in (near) future and makes me

 

[Anonymous]

Former World Bank chief economist and Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz came out today harshly critical of the Eurozone's austerity measures, calling them suicide, and something that has never worked in history. Good, short read.

So the Germans are the equivalent of the 1%. The Italians, Spanish, Portugese, Greeks and Irish are the 99%.

What exactly is the incentive for the Germans to break their *** everyday to continue to subsidize the corruption and entitlements in Greece? What is the solution except to keep lending Greece money? If not austerity, then what? At what point will they take all member states down? For that matter, at what point does confidence slip in the ability of the United States to pay it's lenders?

A full time worker in the US is worse off than 44 years ago? I have to call BS on that one, particularly with govt workers. The only thing I can think he's referring to is the decline of defined benefit retirement packages.

I dunno, Alpe. Maybe I just have it all wrong. Maybe there is no need whatsoever for governments to have any fiscal responsibility. Endless borrowing logically has an end game, or at least one would think.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So the Germans are the equivalent of the 1%. The Italians, Spanish, Portugese, Greeks and Irish are the 99%.

What exactly is the incentive for the Germans to break their *** everyday to continue to subsidize the corruption and entitlements in Greece? What is the solution except to keep lending Greece money? If not austerity, then what? At what point will they take all member states down? For that matter, at what point does confidence slip in the ability of the United States to pay it's lenders?

A full time worker in the US is worse off than 44 years ago? I have to call BS on that one, particularly with govt workers. The only thing I can think he's referring to is the decline of defined benefit retirement packages.

I dunno, Alpe. Maybe I just have it all wrong. Maybe there is no need whatsoever for governments to have any fiscal responsibility. Endless borrowing logically has an end game, or at least one would think.

No not "the germans". We all earn less than 10 years ago. It´s the banks that get bailed out. Them , only them. Has nothing to do with "the greeks", "the italians" or whoever.

It´s funny how people cry foul when government is spending, yet nobody complains of the billions that got thrown to the banksters. That guys, that is (financial/political/big business)communism/corporatism on the cost of 95% of the people, not ill insurance for everybody.

And yes the average US-Worker earns less if you compare the growth of income to the monetary growth and/or inflation.

Again, if government stops spending (= making less depths) others have to, which is the population (= mass poverty).

I agree in one thing: The whole thing will bust. In europe and the US. That´s the nature of the neo liberal interest-capitalism-system. As long as that one isn´t changed (= government has the right to give out money, instead of borrowing it from private banks who borrow it from private FED), the system will always bust every 70/80 years...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Maybe there is no need whatsoever for governments to have any fiscal responsibility. Endless borrowing logically has an end game, or at least one would think.

Seems to me you're already debating that with Velo and the others in the other thread.

As to who bails out whom in Europe, I'll acquiesce to Foxxy or someone else from Europe on that one. I was mostly just posting the article, as Stiglitz does have quite the accreditation.

 

[Amsterhammer]

First, the shoulder fired rocket launchers - I can only speak about my local airport, Schiphol, the fourth busiest in Europe. I have worked in various locations around the perimeter of the airport and have often thought to myself, 'what's the point of the level of security checks for passengers that we consider 'normal' nowadays when anyone who's familiar with the airport environs could easily find a site from which to fire something at a low-flying aircraft and then disappear within minutes'?

I don't have an answer for that one, I'm just glad that nobody has tried it yet.

Austerity - no austerity - degrees of austerity - will become the major issue for the next election here in September. Holland has traditionally tried to be the teacher's pet as far as pleasing Brussels is concerned, especially with the 3% rule (which I'm sure you all know about so I won't go into detail).

The previous government fell because the PVV (Wilders), who enabled the functioning of the minority government, couldn't/wouldn't agree with certain new, far-reaching austerity measures that would be required to meet the 3% rule next year.

In simple terms, the opposition on the left is approaching the election with a platform of - you can't force such swingeing austerity measures through in a time of economic depression and recession because by so doing you will cripple the chances of recovery. The right meanwhile is insisting that there is no alternative to further massive cuts IF the holy grail of the 3% is to be met.

I'm no economist, but when I see recession, gloom, widespread unemployment (by traditional Dutch standards then) and lack of consumer confidence all around me, I cannot imagine that implementing further massive cuts will help the economy back on its feet. It'll certainly be very interesting to see how this plays out in the coming months.

 

[frenchfry]

Former World Bank chief economist and Nobel winner Joseph Stiglitz came out today harshly critical of the Eurozone's austerity measures, calling them suicide, and something that has never worked in history. Good, short read.

The problem isn't the "austerity" measures, the problem is the rampant overspending for many decades in a row that has led to a situation where there is no room for win/win solutions. If we hadn't been living far beyond our means for the better part of 2 generations this debate wouldn't be happening.

I am all for social safety nets, but what is scary is that in a country like France where virtually everyone has access to unheard of social assistance there is constant talk of all the "victims" who should be getting even more. The new President was elected on a program of increasing handouts across the board and a rejection of austerity measures. The problem is that the previous government didn't really enact any austerity but simply moved to reduce spending increases.

For those that aren't aware, France is the polar opposite of the US Republican vision. There is a near total dependance on the state for pensions, health care, and many other aspects of life. This is cultural and incredibly ingrained in the thought processes.

I am also troubled by the excesses and greed that have come to characterise capitalism. Money for the sake of money, speculation, consumption based society have turned the world upside down. Something has to be done, it remains to be seen if the politicians are up to the task. Somehow I don't think so. In any case, it is obvious (to some at least) that reliance on growth is a short term and destructive strategy. The world's population is going to have to learn how to live with less or we are all done for.

 

[Amsterhammer]

All attempts at forming a coalition in Greece have failed. There will be another election next month, which will, without doubt, ensure that even more anti-austerity measures members will be elected. Cue the usual cliches -

Markets are uneasy and negative, euro under pressure, interest on Italian and Spanish debt rising again, voices suggesting Greece may have to be ejected from the Euro club......welcome to summer 2012.

 

[Bala Verde]

FBI opens inquiry into JPMorgan Chase $2 billion trading loss - LA Times

The inquiry by the FBI's financial crimes squad in New York is in a “preliminary infancy stage,” the official said Tuesday, and federal law enforcement agents are pursuing the matter “because of the company and the dollar amounts involved here.”

... do they graduate to preliminary prepubescent and preliminary full-grown adult stages, before turning into non-preliminary and actual inquiries?

 

[Bala Verde]

All attempts at forming a coalition in Greece have failed. There will be another election next month, which will, without doubt, ensure that even more anti-austerity measures members will be elected. Cue the usual cliches -

Markets are uneasy and negative, euro under pressure, interest on Italian and Spanish debt rising again, voices suggesting Greece may have to be ejected from the Euro club......welcome to summer 2012.

Democracy in the midst of a crisis is, well, erm... See for yourself


More Than Half of Police Officers Voted For Neo-nazi Party - Greek Reporter

And what does Golden Dawn stand for, well, it's ugly. Really disturbing. Watch these 2 videos embedded in the articles.


http://wonkette.com/472590/greek-ne...charm-nation-with-reminder-it-is-time-to-fear

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-neo-nazi-manifesto

Greece emerged from a military dictatorship around '74. Looks like some yearn for a return to that era. It's pretty easy to demonize that abstract EU entitity that 'dictates' their lives. Inject it with some idealized, glorified, utopian and heroic interpretation of the past and there you go; you opened up a can of revitalized Holocaust deniers with 21 seats (out of 300?) in parliament.

I wonder how Greece would fare under an actual dictator, who really dictates...

 

[VeloCity]

Interesting interview with Michael Klare.

http://e360.yale.edu/feature/global_scarcity_scramble_for_dwindling_natural_resources/2531/

 

[rhubroma]

So the Germans are the equivalent of the 1%. The Italians, Spanish, Portugese, Greeks and Irish are the 99%.

What exactly is the incentive for the Germans to break their *** everyday to continue to subsidize the corruption and entitlements in Greece? What is the solution except to keep lending Greece money? If not austerity, then what? At what point will they take all member states down? For that matter, at what point does confidence slip in the ability of the United States to pay it's lenders?

A full time worker in the US is worse off than 44 years ago? I have to call BS on that one, particularly with govt workers. The only thing I can think he's referring to is the decline of defined benefit retirement packages.

I dunno, Alpe. Maybe I just have it all wrong. Maybe there is no need whatsoever for governments to have any fiscal responsibility. Endless borrowing logically has an end game, or at least one would think.

Simple the banks reduce the interest rate on repayment. Profit less, but still profit. Why is that so problematical?

 

[Bala Verde]

Did anyone read/watch Michael Lewis speech on the importance of 'luck' in one's life?

"Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie"

The book I wrote was called "Liar’s Poker." It sold a million copies. I was 28 years old. I had a career, a little fame, a small fortune and a new life narrative. All of a sudden people were telling me I was born to be a writer. This was absurd. Even I could see there was another, truer narrative, with luck as its theme. What were the odds of being seated at that dinner next to that Salomon Brothers lady? Of landing inside the best Wall Street firm from which to write the story of an age? Of landing in the seat with the best view of the business? Of having parents who didn't disinherit me but instead sighed and said "do it if you must?" Of having had that sense of must kindled inside me by a professor of art history at Princeton? Of having been let into Princeton in the first place?

This isn't just false humility. It's false humility with a point. My case illustrates how success is always rationalized. People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck — especially successful people. As they age, and succeed, people feel their success was somehow inevitable. They don't want to acknowledge the role played by accident in their lives. There is a reason for this: the world does not want to acknowledge it either.

[...]

The "Moneyball" story has practical implications. If you use better data, you can find better values; there are always market inefficiencies to exploit, and so on. But it has a broader and less practical message: don't be deceived by life's outcomes. Life's outcomes, while not entirely random, have a huge amount of luck baked into them. Above all, recognize that if you have had success, you have also had luck — and with luck comes obligation. You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods. You owe a debt to the unlucky.

[...]

I now live in Berkeley, California. A few years ago, just a few blocks from my home, a pair of researchers in the Cal psychology department staged an experiment. They began by grabbing students, as lab rats. Then they broke the students into teams, segregated by sex. Three men, or three women, per team. Then they put these teams of three into a room, and arbitrarily assigned one of the three to act as leader. Then they gave them some complicated moral problem to solve: say what should be done about academic cheating, or how to regulate drinking on campus.

Exactly 30 minutes into the problem-solving the researchers interrupted each group. They entered the room bearing a plate of cookies. Four cookies. The team consisted of three people, but there were these four cookies. Every team member obviously got one cookie, but that left a fourth cookie, just sitting there. It should have been awkward. But it wasn't. With incredible consistency the person arbitrarily appointed leader of the group grabbed the fourth cookie, and ate it. Not only ate it, but ate it with gusto: lips smacking, mouth open, drool at the corners of their mouths. In the end all that was left of the extra cookie were crumbs on the leader's shirt.

This leader had performed no special task. He had no special virtue. He'd been chosen at random, 30 minutes earlier. His status was nothing but luck. But it still left him with the sense that the cookie should be his.

 

[Der Effe]

For all you Team Sky fans, please stop supporting this horrible human being.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jun/15/rupert-murdoch-tony-blair-iraq-alastair-campbell

 

[Bala Verde]

Syria Leaks

http://www.wikileaks.org/syria-files/releasedate/2012-07-05.html

According to the BBC

"The range of information extends from the intimate correspondence of the most senior [governing] Baath party figures to records of financial transfers sent from Syrian ministries to other nations," she said.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Law Firm Presses Australian Workers Union Privilege - The Australian - Gillard could be in some big trouble if what is being said is true about her. It is being alleged that she was involved in fraud with some of accounts she set up for Bruce Willson, former boss of the Australian Workers Union. There is plenty more other things that do not look good in her favour that will take to long to explain.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I had to go to the bottom of page 2 to find this topic.

Good evening, here are the preliminary results from the evidently confused and fickle Dutch electorate. This is the current prediction with 13% of the votes counted -

VVD 41 (+10) - The 'Liberals', effectively the mainstream conservative party
PvdA 37 (+7) - Dutch 'Labor', the mainstream center-left party
PVV 15 (-9) - loony Gert Wilders, muslims out, Holland out of Europe and Euro
CDA 13 (-8) - Christian Democrats, traditional ruling party together with VVD
SP 16 (+1) - Dutch Socialists
D66 12 (+10) - More liberals, slightly less right-wing than VVD
GL 3 (-7) - 'Left wing Greens', apparently big losers
CU 4 (-1) - Christian Union, moderate religious
SGP 4 (+2) - Loony Dutch Christian right, no women allowed!
PvdD 3 (+1) - Animal party
50PLUS 2 - 50+ party, their first election

Only a few weeks ago, polls showed the SP with 30+ seats, the PvdA with less than 20, and the VVD in the low 30's - which just goes to show how unbelievably fickle the Dutch voter is, if so many can change their minds to such an extent within only a few weeks.

Here's the joke - if this prediction is anywhere near accurate, the only viable coalition will be between both major parties, a grand coalition of right and moderate left (bear in mind that these are very relative terms by comparison with the US - the VVD would, on most social issues, be on the left wing of the Dems!)

If we assume that this grand coalition won't happen, and given that both VVD and PvdA have said that they will not have anything to do with the insane Wilders (PVV), I just don't see anything else viable. Either of the large parties would require at least four different coalition partners of very differing persuasions in order to form a working majority of 75.

We could see lengthy, and ultimately fruitless coalition negotiations, leading to another election in six months or so. Bah.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I had to go to the bottom of page 2 to find this topic.

Good evening, here are the preliminary results from the evidently confused and fickle Dutch electorate. This is the current prediction with 13% of the votes counted -

VVD 41 (+10) - The 'Liberals', effectively the mainstream conservative party
PvdA 37 (+7) - Dutch 'Labor', the mainstream center-left party
PVV 15 (-9) - loony Gert Wilders, muslims out, Holland out of Europe and Euro
CDA 13 (-8) - Christian Democrats, traditional ruling party together with VVD
SP 16 (+1) - Dutch Socialists
D66 12 (+10) - More liberals, slightly less right-wing than VVD
GL 3 (-7) - 'Left wing Greens', apparently big losers
CU 4 (-1) - Christian Union, moderate religious
SGP 4 (+2) - Loony Dutch Christian right, no women allowed!
PvdD 3 (+1) - Animal party
50PLUS 2 - 50+ party, their first election

Only a few weeks ago, polls showed the SP with 30+ seats, the PvdA with less than 20, and the VVD in the low 30's - which just goes to show how unbelievably fickle the Dutch voter is, if so many can change their minds to such an extent within only a few weeks.

Here's the joke - if this prediction is anywhere near accurate, the only viable coalition will be between both major parties, a grand coalition of right and moderate left (bear in mind that these are very relative terms by comparison with the US - the VVD would, on most social issues, be on the left wing of the Dems!)

If we assume that this grand coalition won't happen, and given that both VVD and PvdA have said that they will not have anything to do with the insane Wilders (PVV), I just don't see anything else viable. Either of the large parties would require at least four different coalition partners of very differing persuasions in order to form a working majority of 75.

We could see lengthy, and ultimately fruitless coalition negotiations, leading to another election in six months or so. Bah.

Firstly, are there any loony Left wing parties? Secondly, are you for the Euro? Thirdly, who did you vote for?

 

[Amsterhammer]

Firstly, are there any loony Left wing parties? Secondly, are you for the Euro? Thirdly, who did you vote for?

Hi ACF

1. No

2. Yes

3. Sadly, as a resident Yank I can only vote in local, not national elections. If I had been able to vote, I would either have gone for the party closest to my heart, the SP, or I might have strategically voted for the PvdA, Dutch Labor, as very many others did in the vain hope of stopping the VVD from becoming the largest party.

(The Dutch Socialist Party, like all European parties with the word Socialist in their names, is a social-democratic party that is in no way comparable to eastern European 'socialist' parties of yesteryear.)

The final results -

26,6% : VVD (41 seats; 2,4 m votes)
24,8% : PvdA (39 seats; 2,3 m votes)
10,1%: PVV (15 seats; 933.000 votes)
9,7% : SP (15 seats; 893.000 votes)
8,5% : CDA (13 seats; 788.000 votes)
7,9% : D66 (12 zetels; 732.000 votes)
3,1% : ChristenUnie (Christian Union) (5 seats; 288.000 votes)
2,3% : GroenLinks (Green-left) (3 seats; 214.000 votes)
2,1& : SGP (Religious fundamentalist) (3 seats; 195.000 votes)
1,9% : PvdD (Animal rights party) (2 seats; 178.000 votes)
1,9% : 50Plus (2 seats; 174.000 votes)

Biggest winners by comparison with the last election - VVD, PvdA, 50+ (first election)

Biggest losers - PVV (loony Wilders), CDA, Green-left.

The Dutch parliament has 150 seats. You can do the math to see how impossible any coalition except a grand one between the two major parties has become as a result of this election.

 

[l.Harm]

SP is loony left

Lots of people moved to PvdA. Yesterday SP still was @22 seats or something, now 15 . Also many people who wanted to vote Wilders (PVV) went to VVD, just to avoid PvdA being the largest.

I think it's a shame so many people vote strategically. I've voted D66. You call it slightly less right-wing than VVD. I don't really agree, it's a better discription for CDA I think. D66 is progressive, while the VVD is very conservative. Actually VVD is more conservative than liberal unfortunately.

Only option is a government with PvdA ánd VVD. Probably D66 and/or CDA got involved because of the First Chamber (Senate).

 

[Bala Verde]

SP is loony left

Lots of people moved to PvdA. Yesterday SP still was @22 seats or something, now 15 . Also many people who wanted to vote Wilders (PVV) went to VVD, just to avoid PvdA being the largest.

I think it's a shame so many people vote strategically. I've voted D66. You call it slightly less right-wing than VVD. I don't really agree, it's a better discription for CDA I think. D66 is progressive, while the VVD is very conservative. Actually VVD is more conservative than liberal unfortunately.

Only option is a government with PvdA ánd VVD. Probably D66 and/or CDA got involved because of the First Chamber (Senate).

It's now reported GL got a 'restzetel' because of the 'lijstverbindingen' with SP and PvdA. PvdA loses 1. lol. explain that to a foreigner

Agreed with your assessment of D66. They have really done well under Pechthold, who is also a good debater and very articulate when promoting his points of views.

It's going to be a fun formation... and VVD and PvdA might just have to do what they did in Germany (since 2005?); form a "grand coalition", especially with the Euro crisis.

Paars 2.0 the redux?

 

[l.Harm]

You speak Dutch?

Lijstverbinding is in English available at Wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_alliance

Restzetel is indeed impossible

 

[rhubroma]

I had to go to the bottom of page 2 to find this topic.

Good evening, here are the preliminary results from the evidently confused and fickle Dutch electorate. This is the current prediction with 13% of the votes counted -

VVD 41 (+10) - The 'Liberals', effectively the mainstream conservative party
PvdA 37 (+7) - Dutch 'Labor', the mainstream center-left party
PVV 15 (-9) - loony Gert Wilders, muslims out, Holland out of Europe and Euro
CDA 13 (-8) - Christian Democrats, traditional ruling party together with VVD
SP 16 (+1) - Dutch Socialists
D66 12 (+10) - More liberals, slightly less right-wing than VVD
GL 3 (-7) - 'Left wing Greens', apparently big losers
CU 4 (-1) - Christian Union, moderate religious
SGP 4 (+2) - Loony Dutch Christian right, no women allowed!
PvdD 3 (+1) - Animal party
50PLUS 2 - 50+ party, their first election

Only a few weeks ago, polls showed the SP with 30+ seats, the PvdA with less than 20, and the VVD in the low 30's - which just goes to show how unbelievably fickle the Dutch voter is, if so many can change their minds to such an extent within only a few weeks.

Here's the joke - if this prediction is anywhere near accurate, the only viable coalition will be between both major parties, a grand coalition of right and moderate left (bear in mind that these are very relative terms by comparison with the US - the VVD would, on most social issues, be on the left wing of the Dems!)

If we assume that this grand coalition won't happen, and given that both VVD and PvdA have said that they will not have anything to do with the insane Wilders (PVV), I just don't see anything else viable. Either of the large parties would require at least four different coalition partners of very differing persuasions in order to form a working majority of 75.

We could see lengthy, and ultimately fruitless coalition negotiations, leading to another election in six months or so. Bah.

But don't you know, as everywhere else, it's finance that rules?

 

[l.Harm]

It's not about finance, it's about mentality. If the atmosphere is good you can bridge billions. If it's not, they'll struggle about some millions.

And it's not about finance, but about healthcare, income inequality, how to deal with banks, Europe. Most of all it's about the way of thinking. Social vs liberal. Low income vs. high ones. Higher taxes for high incomes vs lower taxes. And so on.

 

[Amsterhammer]

It's not about finance, it's about mentality. If the atmosphere is good you can bridge billions. If it's not, they'll struggle about some millions.

And it's not about finance, but about healthcare, income inequality, how to deal with banks, Europe. Most of all it's about the way of thinking. Social vs liberal. Low income vs. high ones. Higher taxes for high incomes vs lower taxes. And so on.

I think you misunderstood Rhub. I believe he means that it's pretty irrelevant what parties are actually in 'power' in any given western country when the real 'power' and influence in this world is wielded by global banks and financial institutions, whose control and manipulation of the 'markets' determines the context of our existence, wherever we are.

 

[l.Harm]

Oh Well, that's a very critical point of view.