World Politics

[rhubroma]

The Russians are not so interested in Iranian oil per se. Their interest (or Gazprom's) is in the pipelines leading from the oil fields to Europe.

The US interest in the Middle East was always murky. What are now most of the 'stans used to be called the 'soft belly' of the Soviet Union. A lot of effort was spent to destabilize the part of the region under Soviet (or Russian) influence and keep tight control on 'our' b@st@rds. This doctrine from the 1950's seems still to be in place. Israel in that sense was always a bit of a distraction, sometimes annoying, sometimes welcome.

What's new is China which made necessary the pivot. Herein lies the chance for the region. With the 'Eye of Mordor' firmly drawn to the Pacific, development of the region may occur not under geostrategic signs, but following truly humanitarian ideas. One should not focus on boundaries created by religion (such as the US concept to play Sunni and Shia Muslims against each other). Rather, one should focus on culture and education where certainly the Iran and the former Soviet republics score high.

The Europeans seem to miss a chance here in that they let their own nationalistic tendencies (plus neoliberal nonsense, of course) dictate any attempt at economic recovery. A better way may be to open the vast lands of the Middle East for cultural and economic exchange which I believe would benefit both sides tremendously. The model of the European Union, which has created peace on a continent almost constantly ravaged by wars, should be considered for the Middle East. A first condition, however, would be a general rapprochement to Russia. Without Russia (or even worse, against Russia), nothing will be achieved in the region.

The long term goal could be a culturally and economically developed, peaceful land corridor stretching from Europe all the way to India and China. It would in a sense be Europe's 'pivot'.

[i feel stupid now, being beaten by rhub on brevity]

How, though, is the Middle East to be opened for cultural exchange (like some can of soup), when under the terrible grip of its various mullahs, sheiks and ayatollahs? On the other hand in Rome and in many places in Eastern Europe you have bell towers of its medieval orthodox churches ornamented with Arabic pottery, which thus demonstrates constant commercial and cultural contact between the two worlds, even then among the age of insipient crusades, that scholars are only now beginning to study. Perhaps this could indicate a propitious way in today’s current unsavory climate.

As per your last remark, well I can only put on my best Larry, Moe and Curly act: Ohhhh, a wise guy huh? Why I outta...

 

[rhubroma]

There's a big national union protest in Rome today over raising income tax and on pensioners. Did you know that including "workers’ rights among the constitutional guarantees " is a grave detriment to the economy?" Did you know that the southern European countries sustain the nefarious consequences of the " socialist ideas?" And did you also know that even conceding "the right to protest" to the social categories is thought to be against their own interests? If you didn't know a precious politico-economic document emitted by the financial bank JP Morgan (famous among even the non-specialists for the financial catastrophe of 2008) will explain it to you, which seems to have been purposely conceived just to increment the most bleak paranoia of Wall Street's enemies: those that find techno-pluto-Jewish-masonic conspiracy plots behind every rustling of leaves.

Let's put it this way: the JP Morgan document (as reported in la Repubblica yesterday, page 2) is just as ideologically obtuse as the most puerile of anti-system sorties. It’s so obviously misguided that even a moderately sharp high school student would be able to demonstrate how ridiculous is the theory that Mediterranean Europe is prisoner to its "socialist" inclinations and ballasted by constitutions, which get bogged down in the morass of workers’ rights. The obvious objection to this is that Northern Europe is a hundred times more "socialist," though doesn't seem to suffer the consequences much. JP Morgan should come better prepared to the exams next time.

And look at what one of its affiliates, Goldman Sachs, had predicted about the so-called Brics. Have you been following though what's taking place in Brazil?

 

[python]

It is getting interesting...

Apparently snowden will be landing in moscow in about 4 hours. The hong kong gov confirmed his departure. The plan according to the south china paper to travel to a 3d country.

The 'official' reason for hong kong telling uncle sam to stuff it was the extradition request did not comply with local laws

 

[gooner]

And a Russian government spokeman has said they know nothing about Snowdon's plans. Russia isn't even meant to be his final destination.

Wikileaks are supposed to be behind this and are trying to get him to Iceland.

EDIT:

WikiLeaks ‏@wikileaks 25m
FLASH: WikiLeaks has assisted Mr. Snowden's political asylum in a democratic country, travel papers ans safe exit from Hong Kong. More soon.

 

[python]

Dont kid yourself...when a fugitive like snowden with a standing us arrest warrant is boarding a plain to moscow (not oslo, not montreal, not munchen...)
, not only the russians had to be in the loop, they had to bless it.

The official line, as it has to be, is smoke and mirrors when super spooks leave their cover to move into another...

He may not be staying in moscow for long, but be sure he will be in some kgb safe house for as long as he is there.

 

[gooner]

Dont kid yourself...when a fugitive like snowden with a standing us arrest warrant is boarding a plain to moscow (not oslo, not montreal, not munchen...)
, not only the russians had to be in the loop, they had to bless it.

The official line, as it has to be, is smoke and mirrors when super spooks leave their cover to move into another...

He may not be staying in moscow for long, but be sure he will be in some kgb safe house for as long as he is there.

Yeah. Have to laugh when they say they don't know his location.

Also reading Ecuador could be his final destination and with Wikileaks involved it would add weight to this. This or Iceland it looks like so far.

 

[python]

Yeah. Have to laugh when they say they don't know his location.

Also reading Ecuador could be his final destination and with Wikileaks involved it would add weight to this. This or Iceland it looks like so far.

I follow the developing story via several rss feeds...several minutes ago interfax agency referred to a source connected to snowden that he might be proceeding to........cuba. Or he might decide to stay in moscow for a while.

Regardless, i think all these stories are part of snowden's maneuvers to confuse the cia. After all he was a professional spook too.

What is getting very interesting that the kgb is not known letting a gold mine like snowden go free without milking it dry

 

[Cobblestones]

Of course, Moscow will have been informed. As a US citizen, you normally need a visa and a letter of invitation (which a normal tourist might get from the hotel he or she is staying). But the most important point for Snowden would be an assurance for how Russia reacts. Snowden, at this point, is a piece in a game. This piece might be exchanged against something else in the world of international diplomacy. Clearly, for Hong Kong, he became a liability when the international arrest order was issued. He has to hope that Moscow doesn't have an agenda on its own (which is really what they want to convey by feigning ignorance).

 

[python]

and game it is. a complicated, crazy game that even a spy novel wont invent.

here's the very latest from a reliable source - the informed kommersant paper.

it turns out - even though snowden just landed in moscow - he really is not present in Russia...because he NEVER crossed russian border

the russians came up with a clever trick - snowden will wait for his transfer flight to cuba in a transit hall of moscow's airport and therefore his transit visa is equivalent to him never crossing russian borders and being OFFICIALLY in russia.

i just love this rt has just reported that snowden is already in the ecuadorian embassy and therefore he is NOT in Russia


(just so we dont fool ourselves, a snowden lookalike or a dummy can be put on a flight to havana or in a car speeding off to ecuadorian embassy whilst snowden is being interviewed by the kgb)

i vote for a bracketed version rather than what we are fed.

 

[Amsterhammer]

This is one of those stories that crosses over between 'US' and 'world' political issues. It's fundamentally a US issue, but the more we learn, the more global in scope it becomes. It will be fascinating to see how loing, if at all, he stays in Russia. I think it's in his own best interests to have as little as possible to do with Putin's gang of thugs.

Americans are divided about their attitude towards revealed information about secret government surveillance programs. 44% of Americans said it was right for Snowden to share information about the secret programs, with 42% saying it was wrong and 14% unsure, according to a nationwide survey conducted by Gallup.

Nearly half of Republicans and independents say it was right for Snowden to leak the information, while only 39% of Democrats support it.

The Gallup poll questioned 1,008 adults nationwide by telephone, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

http://english.ruvr.ru/news/2013_06...-the-NSA-secret-program-Gallop-poll-6370-249/

 

[python]

rt-english just confirmed that the Ecuador ambassador to moscow is waiting at the airport to get snowden, like assange in london, to their embassy...

again, snowden never crossed russian borders

 

[Cobblestones]

rt-english just confirmed that the Ecuador ambassador to moscow is waiting at the airport to get snowden, like assange in london, to their embassy...

again, snowden never crossed russian borders

Most international airports in most countries have a transit area where you can wait between flights without actually entering the country or crossing the borders. I've done that myself many times.

It seems in this case, it is a bit different in that he will stay overnight in the Ecuadorian embassy, which is NOT in the Sheremetyevo transit area. At least, Russia isn't GB and he won't be locked in there for years.

 

[Amsterhammer]

rt-english just confirmed that the Ecuador ambassador to moscow is waiting at the airport to get snowden, like assange in london, to their embassy...

again, snowden never crossed russian borders

If he's being taken to the Ecuadorian embassy, he will have 'entered' the country - unless they can define him as being a "diplomatic bag".

 

[python]

Most international airports in most countries have a transit area where you can wait between flights without actually entering the country or crossing the borders. I've done that myself many times.

i never was to sheremetevo, but of course i know this. i am a frequent international traveler myself having lived and worked in several countries. the point was that snowden, with the help of wikileaks legal arm (and in my opinion, fsb+chinese intelligence blessing and planning), came up with a clever plan that would maintain confusion about his true whereabouts AND, however thin, keep legal blanket that would allow thwarting the us efforts at intercepting him. 'we can not arrest someone who is not in russia'... 'all questions please to ecuador'...etc

It seems in this case, it is a bit different in that he will stay overnight in the Ecuadorian embassy, which is NOT in the Sheremetyevo transit area. At least, Russia isn't GB and he won't be locked in there for years.

according to rules, his transit visa is valid for 24 hours. officially that is. BUT, i am pretty confident, he will not leave russia that soon...exactly because they are not known to let a gold mine like snowden walk 'unmined'. i speculate, they will continue throwing up smoke for a couple days while snubbing the us diplomatic fury by feigning ignorance, just like peskov did earlier today. he will eventually, leave russia simply because russia, like china, can not afford the political liability and the us wrath.

but good luck to obama intimidating putin who proved to be quite a diplomatic chess player.

oh, the latest confirmed news up to date: only 1 passenger confirmed seeing a snowden-like young man on board. then, when they landed, tv-24 correspondent reported seeing snowden lookalike for 3-4 seconds being put in a black limo (NOT flagged with ecuador embassy car full of guards and other people and speeding away. other correspondents taking the duty near the embassy saw 2 'flagged' cars leaving but not arriving yet.

 

[rhubroma]

A pawn in the chess game of international so called intelligence, or worse a sacrifical lamb of the strong powers. Wouldn't want to be in the guy's shoes, however heroic were his motives.

 

[Cobblestones]

Sheremetyevo is like the most airports in that it has a transit area, but it seems this is not the point here.

If he gets picked up on the runway by a CD car, then he would never pass immigration and wouldn't need any visa, not even a 24 hour transit visa. However, this is usually done only for diplomats which are accredited in some way. No foreign mission would do such a thing without some communication with the host country if it doesn't want to attract a concentrated effort by counter-espionage. It might be the deal is to have some KGB person sit together with Snowden tonight or some such. But it seems in general the Russians are pretty hands-off and leave it all to Ecuador.

 

[ToreBear]

If I were Snowden I would head to Sweden. I think they have much better protection against extradition than Iceland in a case like this.
Anyway on the Norwegian tv2s text service it says the plan is for him to switch flights in Oslo on to Reykjavik.

The flights available make this possible today. If that is the case he should land in about an hour.

Though seriously, he should go to Sweden not Iceland. Much safer.

As for Russian news reports, I'm always skeptical.

Anyway, I doubt he knows anything or has information the Russians want. The information he likely has is related to public interest.

I expect plenty of wrong information about his plans.

 

[Amsterhammer]

According to the BBC news that I've just seen, he's in the hotel in the transit area of the airport and has not 'entered' Russia.

Ecuador has now confirmed his official request for asylum, so that would appear to be where he's going, possibly via a flight from Moscow to Cuba.

Since he is being actively assisted by the Wikileaks organization, and since Assange is wanted by the Swedes, it looks a safe assumption that he won't go anywhere near Sweden.

 

[python]

As for Russian news reports, I'm always skeptical.

me too, but in this case because they are deliberately misleading (or being misled). as i said above, the snowden's true whereabouts are covered in smoke b/c they want to confuse the americans who, according to the us standard practice, wont stop at anything to get the man they hunt - illegal drone killings like in paistan against a host country will, secret apprehension, interception in the air....whatever it takes.

Anyway, I doubt he knows anything or has information the Russians want. The information he likely has is related to public interest.

not sure i agree. certainly, snowden has tried very hard so far to maintain his motives clear - he wants to be seen as not a spy and traitor but a person serving public awareness about what he believes his countries anti-democratic, totalitarian tendencies.

as much as he may be sincere, and frankly, i am his huge fan, he HAD TO bow to the reality of poor options - the only safe escape route from hong kong via russia (look at the map) or risking being apprehended if any other choice. his choice is now well known and thus he had to risk the attention from kgb. whether he refused the russians to talk 'business' we dont know, i hope he did, but given the the situation he is in, it can not be excluded. he had become a de facto tool in moscow's games. we can only guess as to what's going on...but not the russian motivations.

it is well known that russia was furious at the us apprehending several russian nationals all over the world (for allegedly crossing the us law) and for giving political asylum to a dozen+ chechen insurgents (before they blew off boston runners) who russian 'justice' wants in prison.

it is a push back, a political snub that imo is natural given the us actions.

 

[ToreBear]

According to the BBC news that I've just seen, he's in the hotel in the transit area of the airport and has not 'entered' Russia.

Ecuador has now confirmed his official request for asylum, so that would appear to be where he's going, possibly via a flight from Moscow to Cuba.

Since he is being actively assisted by the Wikileaks organization, and since Assange is wanted by the Swedes, it looks a safe assumption that he won't go anywhere near Sweden.

lol Well I'm sure he will be safe..., until the current government, or a new one wants to get on good terms with the US again.

The US probably wants to warn the other 22 million was it? that have the same security clearance to keep silent.

Exile in Ecuador is probably adequate in this regard.

 

[python]

Ecuador has now confirmed his official request for asylum, so that would appear to be where he's going, possibly via a flight from Moscow to Cuba.

i can easily see the rational calculations behind requesting the ecuador political asylum. in fact, it was twitted by the foreign minister himself.

but FLYING via cuba tomorrow to ecuador for safety, true real safety - away from the cia tantacles or the us air force interceptors - no i do not see it as a smart move. in fact, i am sure it is a deflective ploy !

just so we stay apace... today (yes only today ) the us annulled snowden's american passport. had they done so BEFORE he could fly out of hong kong, the us may have prevented or delayed any legal basis for snowden's departure from hong kong. that is, a person needs some kind of passport or another legal reason to cross international borders. the us appears blundered by leaving the escape route open...

looks like snowden AGAIN outfoxed the cia and stayed one step ahead. call me a conspiratorial nut, but i do not believe it was possible without the cino-russian spy agencies cooperation as to snowden's escape.

by annulling his passport TODAY, the us belatedly tried to prevent a legal basis for his transit out of the moscow airport. thus the late diplomatic maneuvers. that is, bringing the ecuador diplomats to the airport and having them issue expedited papers of requesting an asylum.

according to russia snowden is NOT in russia but they are pulling all the strings...well, with china who are as is their usual are more descrete and wise.

 

[Cobblestones]

If I were Snowden I would head to Sweden. I think they have much better protection against extradition than Iceland in a case like this.
Anyway on the Norwegian tv2s text service it says the plan is for him to switch flights in Oslo on to Reykjavik.

The flights available make this possible today. If that is the case he should land in about an hour.

Though seriously, he should go to Sweden not Iceland. Much safer.

As for Russian news reports, I'm always skeptical.

Anyway, I doubt he knows anything or has information the Russians want. The information he likely has is related to public interest.

I expect plenty of wrong information about his plans.

In his shoes, I would not go anywhere near Sweden, which has in fact a very cozy agreement with the US concerning extradition (which is precisely why Assange tries to avoid going there without further reassurances). The CIA has had an unduly influence on Sweden through the Swedish nationalists ever since the coup and assassination of Olof Palme. Also, the idea to travel to Iceland through Norway is utterly ludicrous. He would have to enter Schengen in Norway at which point the Norwegian police surely would apprehend him (Barth Eide has plans to rise in the UN system).

Anyway, it seems that the US is doing what Eastern Block countries used to do with their dissidents. They annulled his passport (does that mean they have rescinded his citizenship?) What really is the difference between Uncle Sam and Erich Mielke now? Not that it matters. Ecuador could easily issue travel documents. Maybe Snowden could get a Nansen passport which would be quite the irony. If he stays in transit he won't need a passport neither at Sheremetyevo, nor in Habana I presume (though I have to admit, I haven't been to that airport yet).

I hope he has a speedy and uneventful journey to wherever he's going. It seems just like yesterday that these kinds of drama have played out with Eastern Block dissidents. Remember Sakharov's wife Yelena Bonner seeking medical treatment in the US? Nowadays, it's people like Assange and Snowden, the countries they're having problems with are the US, UK and Sweden, and the safe routes involve countries such as Hong Kong, Russia, Cuba and Ecuador. The world has truly changed.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Well, if he is IN the transit area, he is technically not IN Russia. Clearly, none of this could be happening outside the knowledge (or even control) of Russian security services.

As for the technicalities of travel, and although I'm no kind of expert on international law, I would imagine that Ecuador could expedite his asylum request, grant it, and then provide an emergency travel document that would get him there as long as he didn't land in certain countries. I find it a push at this stage, to believe that the US would intercept a Russian airliner in international airspace and force it to land in the US.

But yes, whatever happens, this is a hugely exciting story, and one that will run for some time.

 

[ToreBear]

me too, but in this case because they are deliberately misleading (or being misled). as i said above, the snowden's true whereabouts are covered in smoke b/c they want to confuse the americans who, according to the us standard practice, wont stop at anything to get the man they hunt - illegal drone killings like in paistan against a host country will, secret apprehension, interception in the air....whatever it takes.

Well I don't think they want him that bad. And the drone attacks are not against the host countrys(pacistan or Yemens) will. It's probably more of a we will loudly complain, but help you quietly anyway we see fit. Those drones are sitting ducks. If the pacistani airforce wanted to shoot them down, they could have. There was some real problems in the relationship in regards to a cross border incident that killed 10 or 20 pacistani soldiers a while back though, and that was taken quite seriously by the pacistanis. I think they solved it after a few weeks though.

not sure i agree. certainly, snowden has tried very hard so far to maintain his motives clear - he wants to be seen as not a spy and traitor but a person serving public awareness about what he believes his countries anti-democratic, totalitarian tendencies.

as much as he may be sincere, and frankly, i am his huge fan, he HAD TO bow to the reality of poor options - the only safe escape route from hong kong via russia (look at the map) or risking being apprehended if any other choice. his choice is now well known and thus he had to risk the attention from kgb. whether he refused the russians to talk 'business' we dont know, i hope he did, but given the the situation he is in, it can not be excluded. he had become a de facto tool in moscow's games. we can only guess as to what's going on...but not the russian motivations.

it is well known that russia was furious at the us apprehending several russian nationals all over the world (for allegedly crossing the us law) and for giving political asylum to a dozen+ chechen insurgents (before they blew off boston runners) who russian 'justice' wants in prison.

it is a push back, a political snub that imo is natural given the us actions.

Well Snowden is not a high level agent according to what I've gathered from his interview. He worked as an analyst for a subcontractor. I think there were about 2,2 million people or something in the US which has similar clearance or was it 22 million(me and numbers).

Anyway the US national security system is huge, and after 9/11 it's growth has been extreme. So what the NSA, cia, XYZs of the US security system do is that they farm out government contracts. This is big business, since the US tax payer+fear+scaremongering media/politicians = big $$$.

Now IMHO one glaring consequence of this is that you have huge numbers of people having access to information that they really shouldn't have. See the manning case. A corporal had access to huge amounts of sensitive information.

But of course, the NSA program has also many other repercussions. But the point is that he is very low in the food chain, yet had access to so much information, that if he were so inclined could abuse to his own ends.

This is more a case of national(as in national security industrial complex) embarrassment than national security, and the need to keep similar people silent.

Now, the Russians likely know plenty about this program, and I doubt he has been able to find something very sensitive. Even the americans aren't that incompetent(I think...). And even if he did find something, he seems smart enough not to take any of that with him.

Whats likely to happen is a little PR game at the most from the Russian side. Since the Boston bombings the US and Putin seem to be getting along ok, so I don't think Putin has any interest in making things too difficult. Embarrassing, yes, but nothing serious.


As for escape route. He was to a certain extent limited to places served with direct flights from Hong Kong. He might have gone through China, but I think Russia was a better choice.

 

[ToreBear]

i can easily see the rational calculations behind requesting the ecuador political asylum. in fact, it was twitted by the foreign minister himself.

but FLYING via cuba tomorrow to ecuador for safety, true real safety - away from the cia tantacles or the us air force interceptors - no i do not see it as a smart move. in fact, i am sure it is a deflective ploy !

just so we stay apace... today (yes only today ) the us annulled snowden's american passport. had they done so BEFORE he could fly out of hong kong, the us may have prevented or delayed any legal basis for snowden's departure from hong kong. that is, a person needs some kind of passport or another legal reason to cross international borders. the us appears blundered by leaving the escape route open...

looks like snowden AGAIN outfoxed the cia and stayed one step ahead. call me a conspiratorial nut, but i do not believe it was possible without the cino-russian spy agencies cooperation as to snowden's escape.

by annulling his passport TODAY, the us belatedly tried to prevent a legal basis for his transit out of the moscow airport. thus the late diplomatic maneuvers. that is, bringing the ecuador diplomats to the airport and having them issue expedited papers of requesting an asylum.

according to russia snowden is NOT in russia but they are pulling all the strings...well, with china who are as is their usual are more descrete and wise.

You're a conspiracy nut.

I don't think the US would do anything with the flight, if they did, it would bite them back a lot harder with any precedent they set for international air travel. I'm sure the US senate and Congress would jump all over such an idea, but, Obama has the responsibility to act in his country's interests, so he wouldn't do that.

Also, I very much doubt he is worth any extralegal hassle.

But good point about the passport, Ecuadoran help in this regard is certainly useful.