World Politics

[ToreBear]

In his shoes, I would not go anywhere near Sweden, which has in fact a very cozy agreement with the US concerning extradition (which is precisely why Assange tries to avoid going there without further reassurances).

Yes so he ran to the UK, which is more or less open territory for extradition, both the legal kind and extralegal kind. Good plan!

As for Swedish extradition. Two Egyptians were rendered 10 years ago or something. The Justice minister responsible was killed by a nutter before the case broke. Had she still been alive she and likely the then PM would have been in trouble.

Sweden is one of the countries in Europe which is the most difficult to get people extradited from to the US. The Swedes have extra protection in regards to media, wistleblowing etc.

Last year there was a story about an airforce deserter(with security clearance) who has been in Sweden since the eighties. The US will not get him. A few months ago there was a story about someone wanted(I think a US citizen living and married in Sweden) for spying for Cuba. They are not going to get her either.

And the Swedish government can't give reassurances that he will not be legally extradited, since that would mean the government prejudging a court case. That is a big no no, in Sweden. As for guarantees against rendition: It's against Swedish law. It's already guaranteed.

Don't swallow the Assange PR line. Read the documents available from the UK process, they are available online. And stay away from assange fan sites, their information is skewed if not falsified. Get the original court documents.

The CIA has had an unduly influence on Sweden through the Swedish nationalists ever since the coup and assassination of Olof Palme.

So that's who killed Palme? You'd better call the Swedish police and tell them about it. I'm sure that would be a completely new theory.

As for the Coup, yes that was a difficult period for Sweden. Wait they had a coup!? When? How? 1620 or something? Not in the last 200 years at least?

Also, the idea to travel to Iceland through Norway is utterly ludicrous. He would have to enter Schengen in Norway at which point the Norwegian police surely would apprehend him (Barth Eide has plans to rise in the UN system).

Yes I'm sure Barth Eide would influence any properly filed extradition request, and no doubt has the police ready to do his bidding in order to further his own ambitions.

Oh, wait, he can't! We're not some country with elected prosecutors and politically appointed judges like those banana republics and the... US....

Anyway, it seems that the US is doing what Eastern Block countries used to do with their dissidents. They annulled his passport (does that mean they have rescinded his citizenship?) What really is the difference between Uncle Sam and Erich Mielke now? Not that it matters. Ecuador could easily issue travel documents. Maybe Snowden could get a Nansen passport which would be quite the irony. If he stays in transit he won't need a passport neither at Sheremetyevo, nor in Habana I presume (though I have to admit, I haven't been to that airport yet).

I hope he has a speedy and uneventful journey to wherever he's going. It seems just like yesterday that these kinds of drama have played out with Eastern Block dissidents. Remember Sakharov's wife Yelena Bonner seeking medical treatment in the US? Nowadays, it's people like Assange and Snowden, the countries they're having problems with are the US, UK and Sweden, and the safe routes involve countries such as Hong Kong, Russia, Cuba and Ecuador. The world has truly changed.

I wouldn't put Snowden in the same group as Assange. Assange is a man who has made himself bigger than his cause.

Snowden is a guy who did what he thought was right, no matter the consequences.

 

[python]

You're a conspiracy nut.

didn't i give you a permission to call me so and since i did, i will take my liberty (w/o a permission) of calling you naive

here is why. you're simply mistaken about snowden's impact. he has caused the us a major trouble and embarrassment. major ! not to mention the operational info we have not been let on. perhaps comparable to the impact of the cambridge spy ring. look at the damage so far (we are just weeks into the affair) - a host of countries, from allies like germany and turkey to the competitors like china, have demanded the us official response as to the nsa spying activities against their countries. the germans are livid. regardless of how much the russians and the chinese knew about the prizm operation before snowden, they now have much new info and some confirmation.

much more to come, as the guardian told us.

the us has a history of disregarding international borders and laws when they went after what they consider a national security matter.

moreover, forgetting the us potential action for a moment, think about the risk if you are a snowden's legal overt adviser or a covert/spy handler...would you hand over your security, or basically gamble on the 'democracies don't do it' in the face of dozens of examples the us disrespecting the international law ?

it is the nature of those who are on the run, i mean the smart ones, to plan for a worst case scenario. Not the wishful hopes of well meaning westerners like you.

tomorrow is promised a press-conference by the ecuador's fm from vietnam. i predict more contradictory smoke and mirrors as to his true whereabouts, just as i said all along, and as had happened so far.

 

[Cobblestones]

So that's who killed Palme? You'd better call the Swedish police and tell them about it.

> that's pretty funny, isn't it? I'll get to it right after I'm off the phone with Pol Pot. He wonders what happened to all the Cambodians.

As for the Coup, yes that was a difficult period for Sweden. Wait they had a coup!? When? How? 1620 or something? Not in the last 200 years at least?

> I refer to a prime minister killed by his own special police as a coup. YMMV

Yes I'm sure Barth Eide would influence any properly filed extradition request, and no doubt has the police ready to do his bidding in order to further his own ambitions.

Oh, wait, he can't! We're not some country with elected prosecutors and politically appointed judges like those banana republics and the... US....

> so, Snowden arrives at Gardermoen, he has to enter Schengen in order to continue to Iceland, but his passport is flagged as rescinded or expired? What do you suppose is going to happen? If you think this issue won't be on Barth Eide's table within the hour, you might be a bit naive. Wikileaks has a few choice things to say about him. He and Faremo both belong to the same party. Surely no collusion will be going on between foreign affairs and justice. Anyway, it seems like Snowden isn't taking your advice, which is likely the smart choice.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said: "I know nothing."

He's originally from Barcelona.

 

[ToreBear]

didn't i give you a permission to call me so and since i did, i will take my liberty (w/o a permission) of calling you naive

here is why. you're simply mistaken about snowden's impact. he has caused the us a major trouble and embarrassment. major ! not to mention the operational info we have not been let on. perhaps comparable to the impact of the cambridge spy ring. look at the damage so far (we are just weeks into the affair) - a host of countries, from allies like germany and turkey to the competitors like china, have demanded the us official response as to the nsa spying activities against their countries. the germans are livid. regardless of how much the russians and the chinese knew about the prizm operation before snowden, they now have much new info and some confirmation.

much more to come, as the guardian told us.

the us has a history of disregarding international borders and laws when they went after what they consider a national security matter.

moreover, forgetting the us potential action for a moment, think about the risk if you are a snowden's legal overt adviser or a covert/spy handler...would you hand over your security, or basically gamble on the 'democracies don't do it' in the face of dozens of examples the us disrespecting the international law ?

it is the nature of those who are on the run, i mean the smart ones, to plan for a worst case scenario. Not the wishful hopes of well meaning westerners like you.

tomorrow is promised a press-conference by the ecuador's fm from vietnam. i predict more contradictory smoke and mirrors as to his true whereabouts, just as i said all along, and as had happened so far.

Well I'm usually naive, so you are given retrospective permission to call me naive.

We'll see what happens in the near future i guess.

I think this is more about what the public, both US and international think. I think the UK, Canada, Australia and NZ are all in on the prism system. Nato countries likely as well, though with perhaps not the same access. Sweden likely too. I think you enacted the FRA law a few years ago giving Forsvarets Radio Anstalt new powers?

Perhaps some of those who have been damaged by this might be US companies. This case leaves the impression, that they are all subject to secret orders allowing the US to spy on all of us. That's not exactly a competitive advantage fore them.


Yes you have a point about worse case scenarios. Though I think it would be much easier to kidnap him in Ecuador than Sweden or Norway for example. In Norway the CIA wanted to nab Mullah Krekar. They had a team set in place I think, but it had to be canceled, due to someone quietly tipping off his lawyer who then called the media.

Anyway, think about the PR aspect in the world and US media. Kidnapping someone in Ecuador vs. ally Norway or "neutral" Sweden. The US media would not mind Ecuador, but Norway or Sweden would I think kick up a storm. Not to mention, the reactions of the public in those countries demanding a response from their governments.

The US would if they could, likely ignore all rules when it suits them, but there is a cost, and this cost has to be measured against the benefits.

 

[python]

The plain to havana on which according to aefoflot 2 seats (17a and 17b) are booked to a snowden last name just shut its doors.

Rt correspondent piskunov will be flying out to Havana on the same flight as Snowden.*he just twitted what i posted here yesterday - snowden has not been seen in or out...

 

[gooner]

The plain to havana on which according to aefoflot 2 seats (17a and 17b) are booked to a snowden last name just shut its doors.

Rt correspondent piskunov will be flying out to Havana on the same flight as Snowden.*he just twitted what i posted here yesterday - snowden has not been seen in or out...

What is going on here.

Snowdon is not on the flight.

MOSCOW (AP) — Aeroflot says a Cuba-bound flight for which National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden was registered has departed from Moscow, but he has not been seen on board.

An airline representative told The Associated Press that the Havana-bound flight has left Moscow. The representative, who wouldn't give her name as she wasn't authorized to speak to the media, said Snowden wasn't on the flight.

AP reporters on the flight couldn't see Snowden in the seat he booked or anywhere else on the plane.

The airline said earlier Snowden registered for the flight using his U.S. passport, which American officials say has been annulled.

Snowden arrived in Moscow on Sunday from Hong Kong, where he had been hiding for several weeks to evade U.S. justice. Ecuador is considering Snowden's asylum application.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/nsa-leaker-snowden-expected-fly-cuba

 

[ToreBear]

So that's who killed Palme? You'd better call the Swedish police and tell them about it.

> that's pretty funny, isn't it? I'll get to it right after I'm off the phone with Pol Pot. He wonders what happened to all the Cambodians.

A right, you think they killed him, and are covering it up. You could call the Swedish media of course.

As for the Coup, yes that was a difficult period for Sweden. Wait they had a coup!? When? How? 1620 or something? Not in the last 200 years at least?

> I refer to a prime minister killed by his own special police as a coup. YMMV

Well the one they got for the murder, was a strange, guy. I don't remember the latest on that. I'm not sure he knew himself whether he killed him or not from day to day.

I think it being an inside job is more related to tinfoil theories. Can you enlighten us on that Python?

Yes I'm sure Barth Eide would influence any properly filed extradition request, and no doubt has the police ready to do his bidding in order to further his own ambitions.

Oh, wait, he can't! We're not some country with elected prosecutors and politically appointed judges like those banana republics and the... US....

> so, Snowden arrives at Gardermoen, he has to enter Schengen in order to continue to Iceland, but his passport is flagged as rescinded or expired? What do you suppose is going to happen? If you think this issue won't be on Barth Eide's table within the hour, you might be a bit naive. Wikileaks has a few choice things to say about him. He and Faremo both belong to the same party. Surely no collusion will be going on between foreign affairs and justice. Anyway, it seems like Snowden isn't taking your advice, which is likely the smart choice.

Well, I'm not into the rules of this, but I think the standard is return to sender. In this case Moscow.
He could also apply for asylum, or he could oppose extradition. I don't think he could be returned to the US against his will without a court having a say.

Ironically I know the rules for extradition from Sweden better than my own country due to reading the documents of the Assange case, but I think it's similar. Though in Sweden the politicians I think have to be a bit more careful in how they proceed due do it's administrative law. I think there is something called minister styre (minister control), which I think is a big sin in the Swedish system.

In Norway I think the ministers can do more legally, but in practice they stay away from it, since cutting corners, can quickly get you fired and/or the government in trouble.

As for Eide's powers. Yes it will land in his department, but if it can be shown that he influences the directorate responsible for this case with less than honorable intentions in mind he can say adios to his political career.

Faremo, can't do anything if it lands on her deck as a result of a court proceeding due to the justice system being walled off completely from the politicians.

So Eide would have a little more room to maneuver. That is true, but I think you overestimate his powers. He is answerable to a lot of people, and if he does something the public is against, he is in trouble.

As for Faremo and Barth Eide, they are in the same party, and the same government. And Barth Eide was even her state secretary at the defense ministry.

But so you think government ministers can break the law at will here? Sorry, that might be true were you live, but is not the case here. They will cooperate where their ministries duties coincide. I hope anyway, since the bureaucrats have proven themselves to be really territorial animals, with the resulting solutions sometimes being less than ideal.

As for wikileaks, let me give you a little lesson about what those diplomatic cables are.

They are the musings of the Ambassador and his staff. Do you remember how US ambassadors are selected?

Some are supporters or campaign contributors to the elected presidents, while some are professional state department officials. Who do you think get selected for sensitive areas like, Iraq, Libya, etc.. The contributors or the professionals? The professionals get those postings, since it requires a certain degree of competence.

So whats left for the campaign contributors? They get the low impact jobs, where relations are more or less automatic, and the ambassador usually has little influence.

So what kind of posting do you think the Norwegian embassy is? Sensitive or not sensitive? The answer is not sensitive.

So in the cables relating to Norway, I think the first one is a Bush guy, Ong or something, grumpy guy. Imagine a christian conservative rich guy coming to socialist unreligious Norway.

Imagine the culture shock he would get, and do you think he has any paciens for the Norwegian view of the world? Is sensitive to the fact that the US is not always right? I doubt it.

And this is the person writing memos about Norwegian affairs. The understanding of how little is required of such ambassadors only dawned on me when reading the cables. I would hope the state department people reading these cables are smart enough to take the competence of the sender into account when they read these cables. I think they do, but i'm not sure. Though the harm they could do is limited, due to most issues being dealt with through direct contacts. Defense to defense, justice to justice and NSA to E service etc.

If there is anything, a quick phone call between the the ministers and their counterparts should clear things up quickly.

The next guy, still not a professional also suffered from this culture shock, though he seemed like quite a nice guy, and likely helped the US image.

His replacement appointed by Obama, is a democrat, so he might not have the same problems, though I suspect he would need to adapt to how Israel is viewed in Norway compared to the US were criticizing Israel seems difficult. Though he is a very nice guy too, and has further improved the US image.

The point is, these cables, are not the truth, they are things seen from someone not trained to be objective and sensitive to different cultures, and without knowledge of the language.

The US and Norway are democracies, but people from the US have trouble understanding us, especially if they have strong pre established beliefs.

One example I can think of is the OSS who then became the CIA trying to assess Norway after the war. They were shocked, and sent alarming reports back home. This had to be cleared up in several meetings between the Norwegian head of intelligence and the US head of the CIA.

Recognizing the cultural differences, the CIA agreed to work through the Norwegian intelligence in the future.

As for Snowden taking my advice. Well that's his problem. If I were him, id go to Sweden. But if he is advised by wikileaks, likely they don't want to ruin their great leaders PR campaign about why he ran from the Swedish justice system.

 

[ToreBear]

He's originally from Barcelona.

Whats Russian for waiter?

Peskov?

 

[Amsterhammer]

Now the fun really begins!

- No journalist has actually seen Snowden in Moscow.

- Hordes of journos booked on the flight to Cuba that Snowden was supposedly booked on discovered (too late) that not only was he not on the flight, but that Aeroflot does not serve alcohol on flights to Cuba.

- The question now arises if he ever actually flew to Moscow in the first place.

- Interfax now suggesting that he might be on a different flight, while a "source familiar with Snowden's situation" suggests that, "Snowden is probably already outside the Russian Federation".

More as the day progresses.....

 

[ToreBear]

The reason Snowden is not on the flight is likely due to him not being granted asylum yet and hence travel documents.

Even the Ecuadorans have to go through some sort of bureaucratic assessment of whether he should get asylum. It's likely more for show, than anything, but granting asylum on the hour would be too ridiculous.

 

[python]

What is going on here.

Snowdon is not on the flight.



http://bigstory.ap.org/article/nsa-leaker-snowden-expected-fly-cuba

what is going on ?

i predicted this with 100% accuracy only several posts up
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1269888&postcount=13171

but FLYING via cuba tomorrow to ecuador for safety, true real safety - no i do not see it as a smart move. in fact, i am sure it is a deflective ploy !

 

[ToreBear]

what is going on ?

i predicted this with 100% accuracy only several posts up
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1269888&postcount=13171

It will be interesting to see which view prevails in the end, your tinfoil or my naivety.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Ecuador foreign minister about to hold a press conference in Hanoi.

Thanks for getting the Barcelona joke, TB!

 

[ToreBear]

Ecuador foreign minister about to hold a press conference in Hanoi.

Thanks for getting the Barcelona joke, TB!

Hey I loved that show! How could I not get it!

 

[gooner]

Ecuador foreign minister about to hold a press conference in Hanoi.

Thanks for getting the Barcelona joke, TB!

Just heard him on CNN. He said they will take their time in analysing his request for asylum.

The dithering is what could cost Snowdon in the end if it's not done quickly.

Good read here once again by Tim Marshall on Sky News on it all.

http://news.sky.com/story/1107475/edward-snowden-affair-the-who-and-the-why

 

[python]

i would not worry for snowden's safety and fate at all even if ecuador takes time to grant the asylum. he can legally travel as long as he does it with the supports of his powerful sponsors without a passport.

clearly, ecuador WILL grant him the new home. but according to diplomatic norms, it has to look well considered even if obviously staged, like in this case.

as was mentioned yesterday, a grand geopolitical game is taking place. the russians, the chinese and potentially other south american players are checking their options while snowden is in a deep safe house some place in russia being interviewed by his handlers...

the great kgb smoke machine has been cranked up...several 'informed' russian sources leaked intentionally confusing information - 'he booked a later flight'..., 'he is out of the country ...' etc

i doubt snowden will even surface in ecuador months AFTER the asylum will become an accomplished fact. too close to america.

 

[Amsterhammer]

In other news....Rhub, do you think that is there the remotest chance that Berlusconi will ever spend one day in jail?

 

[ToreBear]

I think he got the law changed so those over 70 only face house arrest, not prison.

Anyway Rhub, could you get me an invite into one of his bunga bunga parties?

 

[Cobblestones]

Tore, I think you overestimate the integrity of your country's government. Just a few weeks ago unusually light sentences were handed down to some of your countrymen in the police who moonlighted for the US embassy. The only point which was addressed in the trial was tax evasion, and even for this, an unusually light sentence was given. Do you really think this happened without foreign affairs and justice colluding? If you're not convinced, check out how Ahmed Bouchiki's killers were treated by the same collusion of foreign affairs and justice. Your country might be a tad less corrupt than others, but clean it ain't.

In general,

You got to love the professionalism of the KGB. What a bunch of highly talented people. A grandiose display of smoke and mirrors and now even the Guardian isn't sure anymore whether (i) Snowden is still at Sheremetyevo, (ii) has left Moscow, or (iii) has even traveled to Moscow in the first place. Apparently Moscow managed to convince everybody about Snowden's arrival that reporters forgot to do the simplest investigation, namely asking fellow passengers from Hong Kong if they had seen Snowden on the plane to Moscow. There you have the difference between 'dumb' intelligence, represented by vacuuming the data highway without getting any the wiser, and highly competent operatives. High drama of the finest quality.

There's so much to be said. So the US expects that European countries respect that Snowden's passport has been declared invalid such that he can't travel any more? I sure hope the CIA on all their rendition flights made sure that all the passports of their victims were in order, not expired and issued all the necessary visa stamps to pass the respective immigration checkpoints. The US also expects extradition of Snowden? Let's hope they entertain Italy's request in the Abu Omar case with the same vigor. And the choice of Ecuador for asylum request with it's not too stellar ranking on the press freedom index shows what? To me it shows that countries with higher ranking don't have the cojones to withstand US pressure (which probably should count against their ranking, but strangely doesn't).

 

[Amsterhammer]

....Apparently Moscow managed to convince everybody about Snowden's arrival that reporters forgot to do the simplest investigation, namely asking fellow passengers from Hong Kong if they had seen Snowden on the plane to Moscow.

I've been asking myself that question from the start of the Moscow saga.

I sure hope the CIA on all their rendition flights made sure that all the passports of their victims were in order, not expired and issued all the necessary visa stamps to pass the respective immigration checkpoints.

This!

 

[python]

...that means that there is more emphasis on hearing one's own question rather than read the very thread with possible answers...the journos did try, and did ask disembarking passengers questions. i personally saw it and reported here. but it's rather predictable when everyone, including the hardworking truth-searching reporters, are handled by a sophisticated security
agency like kgb
http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1269455&postcount=13164

oh, the latest confirmed news up to date: only 1 passenger confirmed seeing a snowden-like young man on board. then, when they landed, tv-24 correspondent reported seeing snowden lookalike for 3-4 seconds being put in a black limo (NOT flagged with ecuador embassy car full of guards and other people and speeding away. other correspondents taking the duty near the embassy saw 2 'flagged' cars leaving but not arriving yet.

 

[ToreBear]

Tore, I think you overestimate the integrity of your country's government. Just a few weeks ago unusually light sentences were handed down to some of your countrymen in the police who moonlighted for the US embassy. The only point which was addressed in the trial was tax evasion, and even for this, an unusually light sentence was given. Do you really think this happened without foreign affairs and justice colluding? If you're not convinced, check out how Ahmed Bouchiki's killers were treated by the same collusion of foreign affairs and justice. Your country might be a tad less corrupt than others, but clean it ain't.

The tax evasion case has been an ongoing process, with the details of something that gives a hint of some being more equal than others.

All they did that was illegal was not pay tax. The day after the story aired on tv a couple of years ago they ran to the tax office to declare and ask for amnesty. After an investigation the police department assigned to the investigation of the case, concluded that nothing illegal had happened and put the case aside. It seems the tax department took this to also involve the tax case and gave them the minimum penalty. I think that was an extra 30% penalty tax.

Now it apears the police didn't investigate the tax part of the case and assumed the amnesty was correct in this case. Which it wasn't, they should have asked for amnesty before the media brought the story into the open. It appears someone in the tax office assumed the police had investigated this and did'nt apeal the case within the time limit. So the story rolles on.

This case smellls bad because it looks like these guys got off easier than joe public due to incompetence or collusion by someone. Personally I think they got lucky with police incompetence(perhaps willfull incompetence), and there was a mix up in the tax department. (the police is struggeling these days due to the tree shaking in the follow up to 22/7, so incompetence is IMHO a high probability). I would need a double lining of tinfoil to get the foreign ministry involved in this mess. Sorry.

As for Bouchiki case, it was 40 years ago. Anyway, Israel could do now wrong in the Norwegian public eye, so those checks were not available. However they did serve some time(half their sentence), and the Mossad nework suffered a huge setback all over Europe. Anyway I think rules and procedures have evolved somewhat in the last 40 years.

One interesting aspect of this case is that it revealed the true competence of the Mossad. They were not competent. I think the reason they had so much "success" before this is that the local authorities looked the other way or were complicit. When this did'nt happen here, they were in trouble.

In general,

You got to love the professionalism of the KGB. What a bunch of highly talented people. A grandiose display of smoke and mirrors and now even the Guardian isn't sure anymore whether (i) Snowden is still at Sheremetyevo, (ii) has left Moscow, or (iii) has even traveled to Moscow in the first place. Apparently Moscow managed to convince everybody about Snowden's arrival that reporters forgot to do the simplest investigation, namely asking fellow passengers from Hong Kong if they had seen Snowden on the plane to Moscow. There you have the difference between 'dumb' intelligence, represented by vacuuming the data highway without getting any the wiser, and highly competent operatives. High drama of the finest quality.

There's so much to be said. So the US expects that European countries respect that Snowden's passport has been declared invalid such that he can't travel any more? I sure hope the CIA on all their rendition flights made sure that all the passports of their victims were in order, not expired and issued all the necessary visa stamps to pass the respective immigration checkpoints. The US also expects extradition of Snowden? Let's hope they entertain Italy's request in the Abu Omar case with the same vigor. And the choice of Ecuador for asylum request with it's not too stellar ranking on the press freedom index shows what? To me it shows that countries with higher ranking don't have the cojones to withstand US pressure (which probably should count against their ranking, but strangely doesn't).

The noises coming from the US admin seems a bit overdone. Perhaps he had more information than I thought? They seem to be playing tough guy, but all it seems to do is make them look more stupid, and like a bully. Which is more damaging to them.

I hope he lands somewhere in Europe and the US is told to **** off. Seems this admin, needs a good telling off from an ally.

 

[ToreBear]

As for Snowden. If the NSA is reading this. Hi! I think he is under my bed!


Hmm in case they are busy, I'd better ad some words for their poor overworked search engine:

how about shaheed doctor apple carrot.


There, that should do it.

 

[rhubroma]

In other news....Rhub, do you think that is there the remotest chance that Berlusconi will ever spend one day in jail?

No. In fact I overheard some dumbasses today out in a piazza talking about how it's all designed to cast him out. That is that the judicial system is "constructing" something to eliminate Berlusca.

What a world...and he has the media in his favor.