I didn't want to quote Python's post again, but will address some points. This discussion really needs to be removed from the usual ideological straightjacket displayed by most of us, me included, most of the time.
My position is that I think the Kiev regime is pretty objectionable, but that there are far worse regimes. I accept that the oligarchs and traditional ruling class hold the reins of power, together with a few far right neo-Nazi Svoboda types. I would not go far as to characterize the regime as 'fascist', a term much misused as an epithet nowadays. I have no skin in the Ukraine game. I honestly don't care if it remains a unitary state with current borders, or not. Borders in this part of the world have never been immutable.
The rebels are scum. Ignorant, unrealistic, unorganized (in some respects, not in others) chauvinistic whackjobs. Ukrainian teabaggers, doing more or less what so many US teabaggers would like to be doing. Machos parading with their heavy weapons. Fcuk them.
Of course, Vlad is the evil mastermind behind the anarchy in E. Ukraine. Nobody was ever going to buy the 'People's Republic of Donetsk'. Certainly, he could not have foreseen that some drunk teabilly *** would mistake a commercial jet at such an altitude for a Ukrainian transport. But, he is responsible for encouraging and fostering their secessionist desires.
This is an appalling, gross, human tragedy. If 193 victims had been Brits or Americans, we would be immersed in a major sh!tstorm right now. But the nice, quiet, Dutch don't like to make waves. There is growing dissatisfaction in Holland with the Dutch government's wimpish response so far. We must assume that there is feverish activity behind the scenes.
Since this is a forum page, I'm entitled to apply different probative standards than the media. From my immersion in this topic 24/7 since it began, I have reached the following conclusions based on all available evidence that we know about, or have been told about by 'well informed experts'. I have watched CNN, BBC World, Al-Jazeera Int., Sky News, RT, and Dutch and Belgian public tv news. I have also read numerous articles. And yes, I am aware that there is an east/west media war going on.
You can forget all of Python's other possibilities. There is no doubt that the plane was accidentally shot down by a BUK launcher. The rebels captured one from a Ukrainian border post 3-4 weeks ago, and subsequently paraded through the streets, as shown on Russian tv at the time. Whether the missile in question was fired from this particular BUK, or from some other one that the rebels were given by the Russians, is moot at this point. We have the phone conversation (yes, could theoretically be faked, but sounds very real,) and we also have the removed tweet claiming credit. There are also reports that US intelligence knew that the rebels had a surface to air capability beyond only a low level one.The film showing the BUK on the back of a truck with one missile missing looks genuine, though we cannot say when the film was shot. By now, the launcher in question is hidden deep within Russia, or has been dismantled. All other evidence of what the rebels might have had will have been removed by the time the government army retakes the territory the rebels now hold.
At least three different groups of rebels at the crash site have disgracefully been thwarting OCSE observers, monitors, journalists, rescue services, and Dutch and Malaysian government representatives and experts. They have also been looting personal possessions. These people are utter scum. The removal of the bodies, and the securing of what is a major crime scene, should have been paramount, instead of these masked qwunts flaunting their 'authority'. The entire area needs to have a security perimeter established so that the best air crash experts/investigators from all over the world can do what they do. Armed rebels with no clear leadership are preventing what would be happening anywhere else in the world - accident investigation, removal of bodies and personal effects, and proper forensic investigation. What's going on here is an outrage against all known standards of human decency.
For that reason, I believe that Vlad will have to cut his losses. His pathetic blaming of Kiev for the tragedy will convince no one outside of Cuba or Syria. He knows exactly who fired the missile. The idiot rebels could never work the launcher on their own. Either one or more of them had an insufficient 'crash' training course by Russians, or a Russian was at the controls. I consider the latter less likely, since any properly trained operator would apparently know the difference between a military, and a commercial jet.
Sooner or later, we will see evidence from US and other satellites that will show the missile being launched from the direct, rebel-controlled area near the crash site. Vlad knows this. Vlad knows that it will become undeniable that the rebels are responsible. He will have to decide how and when to drop them, and whom to deliver for eventual prosecution. On the other hand, Vlad is an old hand at straight faced lying, and at denying the undeniable. He is a shameless, old skool, Russian despot. How some in the West see anything admirable about him, apart from his Machiavellian expertise at his craft, is beyond me.
Vlad could have made one phone call, and solved the log jam at the crash site. So far, he has chosen not to, despite his public protestations of wanting an objective, international investigation of this tragedy. The rebels, whose every statement is literally unbelievable, claim not to have the black box. Other 'reports' have claimed that the boxes are in Russia, or still 'on Ukrainian territory'. The boxes now have more importance for the litigation to come, than they do as proof of what happened.
As soon as the relevant experts are able to examine the many large pieces of the aircraft, they will know if the plane was hit by a warhead, or brought down by a proximity explosion, as delivered by the BUK. The black boxes will tell us if the pilots saw a vapor trail before they were hit, or if they had no warning at all. They will also show if the pilots were able to say anything after being hit, if there was immediate silence, or if there were minutes of horror for the passengers and crew before they died. This last point is, apparently, crucial to future litigation about compensation - the longer the pre-death horror, the greater the compensation will be.
This horror could be at least partially put back on the rails if ****ing Vlad would stop playing politics with this awful human tragedy, take his responsibility, and force the drunken, armed, peasant rabble to withdraw from the area of the crash so that access can be guaranteed. You may have gathered that I'm pretty p!ssed about this.
if the motive was commercial, as all air carriers have to pay a fee for the overflights, i consider it criminal. any unbiased investigation should START with the question..really, it's no brainer. ukraine flied their attack planes which were constantly shot at by the rebels (with many shot down) few hundred meters from the civil craft flying just above...as i said, if to make a few $$, it is pure criminal !
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