World Politics

[Captain_Cavman]

US = paper tiger?

US = real tiger.

China = man with long stick

Iran = long stick

 

[python]

i'll comment only on those parts of your post where i feel a clarification may be needed...otherwise we're on the same page.

let's take a look at this from several other angles, internally with Iran and let's not forget Syria.

iran's suppression of internal opposition is a hard fact. but one has to keep in mind (when looking at the middle east's mix of dictatorships and kingdom's) that iran DOES have elements of the civil society- parliament, elections etc. sure it's long way from our standard, but behind the iran demonisation efforts, these facts are glossed over too often. the theocratic nature of their society to me is repulsive but again, i din't choose to live there.

Here's where Syria enters the picture.

i've done some research trying to objectively understand both the iran-syria connection and what's really going on in syria. whilst the former is rather straightforward (survival union of the rejects), the later is a knot of confusion...'arab spring' noble slogans don't automatically transfer to syria in my mind. it's both about a brutal regime excesses and, more pragmatically, the west's attempts to reduce iran's proxies in the region (hezbollah etc). it looks to me as the same powers that stand behind behind iran (china and russia), support syria's regime with the difference being that whilst china leads on iran, russia leads on syria (their tartus naval base, weapons investments etc)

on one side you have the Syrian leadership, Shiite Iran and Iraq

you need to add lebanon to the list. at least the government's official position is supportive of syria...

Hence the Iranian and Syrian crisis are increasingly becoming inexorably linked

as i noted above, for washington's policy planners they were ALWAYS linked !

Especially since the primaries have recently opened in Iowa

american internal politics about elections imo is a comedy show. i never had any interest. sadly, it effects every citizen of the globe directly and gives right-wingers too much show time.

the US isn't in the position to intimidate anyone and Europe even less.

rationally speaking yes, but international politics historically is a confused web of follow up, forced responses to 'developments' and contingencies rather than a well planed neat sequence of actions.

considering his internal difficulties, that Vladimir Putin gets tempted to make the tensions with the West grow while playing the nationalist card at home.

vlad wont have to do much as the west/us are adding nicely to the tension. he will in turn, try to hang on to syria by callously propping whatever terrors group he has to. just like the us.

 

[Cobblestones]

There's quite the interesting analysis on China's and India's middle east strategy.

 

[ChrisE]

Posting this for red.

http://www.salon.com/2012/01/10/the_new_wh_chief_of_staff_and_citigroup/singleton/

Nothing to see here. Hey! Look over there! It's Phil Gramm!

 

[rhubroma]

i'll comment only on those parts of your post where i feel a clarification may be needed...otherwise we're on the same page.

iran's suppression of internal opposition is a hard fact. but one has to keep in mind (when looking at the middle east's mix of dictatorships and kingdom's) that iran DOES have elements of the civil society- parliament, elections etc. sure it's long way from our standard, but behind the iran demonisation efforts, these facts are glossed over too often. the theocratic nature of their society to me is repulsive but again, i din't choose to live there.
i've done some research trying to objectively understand both the iran-syria connection and what's really going on in syria. whilst the former is rather straightforward (survival union of the rejects), the later is a knot of confusion...'arab spring' noble slogans don't automatically transfer to syria in my mind. it's both about a brutal regime excesses and, more pragmatically, the west's attempts to reduce iran's proxies in the region (hezbollah etc). it looks to me as the same powers that stand behind behind iran (china and russia), support syria's regime with the difference being that whilst china leads on iran, russia leads on syria (their tartus naval base, weapons investments etc)

you need to add lebanon to the list. at least the government's official position is supportive of syria...

as i noted above, for washington's policy planners they were ALWAYS linked !
american internal politics about elections imo is a comedy show. i never had any interest. sadly, it effects every citizen of the globe directly and gives right-wingers too much show time. rationally speaking yes, but international politics historically is a confused web of follow up, forced responses to 'developments' and contingencies rather than a well planed neat sequence of actions.
vlad wont have to do much as the west/us are adding nicely to the tension. he will in turn, try to hang on to syria by callously propping whatever terrors group he has to. just like the us.

What a tangled web we weave.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Posting here rather than in the election topic.............

Shame, shame, shame, shame on you............

Guantanamo 10 years old today and still open!

It’s Congress’ Fault That It’s Still Open

“The existence of Guantánamo likely created more terrorists around the world than it ever detained.” So said President Barack Obama in 2009, defending his promise to close the prison camp there. He is hardly the only one to hold the view that Guantánamo undermines our security and should be shuttered. Former President George W. Bush, former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, former secretaries of state Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice, and Senator John McCain, all agreed that the United States would be better off without Guantánamo. Few images do more to serve Al Qaeda’s interests.

Yet three years after Obama promised to close the most infamous prison in the world today, and 10 years after the first detainee was brought there, Guantánamo remains open, with no foreseeable shelf life date. Why? The principal culprit is Congress. Adopting a short-sighted “not in my backyard” attitude, Congress has barred Obama from transferring any detainees to the United States, not even to stand trial in a criminal court, and has put onerous conditions on their being transferred to any other country. These measures have effectively frozen in place one of the most counterproductive aspects of our national security policy – and given Al Qaeda just what it wants.

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebat...-congress-fault-that-guantanamo-is-still-open

See also -

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/ameri...Flow&utm_term=tweets&utm_medium=MasterAccount

Guantanamo is 10 years old – and the last British prisoner is 'falling apart'

Held for a decade without charge, Shaker Aamer may die without ever seeing the evidence against him, claim his lawyers

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ritish-prisoner-is-falling-apart-6287786.html

 

[rhubroma]

Posting here rather than in the election topic.............

Shame, shame, shame, shame on you............

Guantanamo 10 years old today and still open!

It’s Congress’ Fault That It’s Still Open



http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebat...-congress-fault-that-guantanamo-is-still-open

See also -

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/ameri...Flow&utm_term=tweets&utm_medium=MasterAccount

Guantanamo is 10 years old – and the last British prisoner is 'falling apart'

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...ritish-prisoner-is-falling-apart-6287786.html

Guantanamo is the most visible reason why the US has lost all moral currency around the world in its foreign policy.

How can a nation that expects to give judicial lessons of fairness to the Arab world, maintain such a scandalous and condemnable facility? Just absolutely mindboggling. Political considerations aside.

It's hypocrisy personified.

 

[python]

Guantanamo is the most visible reason why the US has lost all moral currency around the world in its foreign policy.

i'll argue that it's one of the latest but not most visible.. but i'm open to a compromise

How can a nation that expects to give judicial lessons of fairness ....
It's hypocrisy personified.

in this regard, did you know that no less than the chief military prosecutor (the name escapes me but can be easily googled) the chief prosecutor in the guantanomo resigned for the very reason you you cited

he became a fierce opponent of the hypocrisy he was called to uphold in wearing the uniform of his country !

 

[rhubroma]

i'll argue that it's one of the latest but not most visible.. but i'm open to a compromise

in this regard, did you know that no less than the chief military prosecutor (the name escapes me but can be easily googled) the chief prosecutor in the guantanomo resigned for the very reason you you cited

he became a fierce opponent of the hypocrisy he was called to uphold in wearing the uniform of his country !

I don't recall the general's name, but I'm aware of the case.

 

[Cobblestones]

What do you mean by targeted? The US sanctions are already in place. Do you mean militarily? I don't think the US will do that. What would make you think so?

What is much more likely is that the US (and/or Israel) will engage in very focused strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities or acts of sabotage (think Stuxnet and the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists). That's why the drones flew over Iran (and I would love to know if they still do). That's going to be the opening act of the drama. The interesting question for me would be how Iran might respond to that. Most analyses I have read agree that Iran has no reason to attempt to block the strait of Hormuz unless it is attacked first.

I predicted this a few pages ago.

 

[rhubroma]

I predicted this a few pages ago.

I think we can exclude that Iran would sabotage its own interests just to demonize the enemy, or that another regional, say Sunnite, component (Saudi Arabia) would have so brazenly intervened, then Israel has to be behind the assassination.

I see a pressure cooker that dangerously heads toward explosion.

 

[Amsterhammer]

I predicted this a few pages ago.

Well, you were on a sure winner with that prediction!

He wasn't the first and I don't imagine that he'll be the last.

 

[Amsterhammer]

in this regard, did you know that no less than the chief military prosecutor (the name escapes me but can be easily googled) the chief prosecutor in the guantanomo resigned for the very reason you you cited

he became a fierce opponent of the hypocrisy he was called to uphold in wearing the uniform of his country !

All bold added by me.

According to the New York Times, officials confirmed on September 24, 2008, that, Lieutenant Colonel Vandeveld resigned over an ethical issue.[1] Vandeveld is the seventh prosecutor to resign from serving as a Guantanamo prosecutor

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_resignations_from_the_Guantanamo_military_commission


Apologies for quoting this entire article, but it says some things which, imho, need to be emphasized.

Gitmo: 10 years of injustice and disgrace

Editor's note: Vince Warren is the executive director of the Center for Constitutional Rights, a nonprofit legal and educational organization that works to protect rights guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. CCR represented clients in two Guantánamo Supreme Court cases and coordinates the work of hundreds of pro bono attorneys representing prisoners there.

(CNN) -- Wednesday marks 10 years since the first 20 detainees arrived at the U.S. Naval Base in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. Since then, 779 men have been imprisoned there for years without charge, trial or an opportunity to challenge their detention. They have included boys as young as 12 and men as old as 89.

Many of them had fled persecution in their home countries, only to end up in the wrong place at the wrong time and, ultimately, in Guantánamo. These men have been torn from their families, missed marriages and births, never met nieces and nephews, and lost parents and other family members. Eight have lost their own lives.

From its beginning, Guantánamo was built upon injustice and lies. Guantánamo Bay was chosen as the location for the prison precisely because the Bush administration believed the base was beyond the reach of civilian courts. We were told the men imprisoned there were the "worst of the worst," as if this somehow justified suspending the rule of law, as if the only way to be safe from terrorism was to abandon human rights and violate civil liberties. As it turned out, when then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld made this claim, he already knew what the rest of us learned later: In fact, many of the almost 800 men sent to Guantánamo in 2002 and the years since were innocent, caught while fleeing the chaos and violence of war that erupted when U.S. forces entered Afghanistan.

Once at Guantánamo, most of the men were subjected to torture: solitary confinement, sensory and sleep deprivation, force feeding, confinement to cells for more than 20 hours a day, and physical assault. Because strip searches and body scans were required every time they left their cells, even before attorney meetings and recreation time, many prisoners refused to leave their cells for any reason. Items such as toothpaste, toothbrushes, deodorant, soap and blankets were "privileges" and taken away at will. They were denied the right to practice their religion, had virtually no human contact, and some often did not see the sun for days.

This human rights tragedy is perhaps best revealed by the words of the detainees themselves.

"Tell [my wife] to remarry," said one prisoner. "She should consider me dead."

"I look alive," said another, "but actually I'm dead."

And yet another: "I am in my tomb."

This nightmare continues today. Despite promises to close Guantánamo and reverse the illegal policies of the Bush administration, President Obama has attempted to legitimize them. He has signed an executive order formalizing indefinite detentions at Guantánamo, resumed illegitimate military commissions, and refused to hold U.S. officials accountable for torture.

More than half the men still detained at Guantánamo -- 89 of the 171 -- have been cleared for transfer or release, yet no one has been transferred since January 2011, the longest period without a transfer in the prison camp's 10-year history. Obama has refused even to release the names of the 89 detainees cleared for release or transfer. What's more, Guantánamo has set a precedent that has contributed to the dismantling of civil liberties. In December, Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act, which makes indefinite military detention without charge or trial, including that of American citizens, a permanent feature of the American legal system.

Guantánamo not only is a global symbol of human rights violations. It has also calcified into the cornerstone of the United States' declining respect for human rights and the rule of law. In the days after the September 11, 2001, attacks, the Bush administration began describing the need for brutal methods of interrogation and imprisonment. "We'll have to work sort of the dark side," said then-Vice President **** Cheney.

Ten years later, what is on the dark side has become crystal clear. Gone are fundamental constitutional and human rights protections and enduring prohibitions on torture. In their place is a limitless war against an undefined enemy, and continuing human rights abuses fueled by xenophobia and fear-mongering.

Gone is the rule of law, and in its place is a more slippery notion designed to enable executive illegality rather than curtail it. What began as a dark, reactionary and exceptional disgrace has become a clear sign that the United States does not take seriously its claim to lead the world in freedom and justice.

This is an anniversary that should never have come. Ten years of illegal imprisonment is 10 years too many. Ten years of searing international criticism falling on deaf ears in the United States is 10 years too many. After seven years of the Bush administration's open disdain for human rights and the rule of law and three years of Obama's broken promises, more men have died in Guantanamo than have been tried in court. It's time to close Guantánamo now.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/01/10/opinion/warren-close-gitmo/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

 

[rhubroma]

"We make quality citizens" (From the US Marines website)

http://www.repubblica.it/esteri/2012/01/12/news/marines_video-27971674/?ref=HRER2-1

 

[auscyclefan94]

Aus Politics is becoming crazier!

http://www.theage.com.au/national/the-watchdogs-kennel-in-clandestine-croydon-20120106-1poox.html

The ALP have hired an intelligence company to spy on Greens protesters!

 

[Spare Tyre]

Aus Politics is becoming crazier!

http://www.theage.com.au/national/the-watchdogs-kennel-in-clandestine-croydon-20120106-1poox.html

The ALP have hired an intelligence company to spy on Greens protesters!

They have probably got a file on me, then. I'll think of it as a badge of honour.

 

[Cobblestones]

Is the Euro debt crisis contained? Spain and Italy had greatly successful auctions. Germany sold debt with negative interest a few days ago.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Is the Euro debt crisis contained? Spain and Italy had greatly successful auctions. Germany sold debt with negative interest a few days ago.

Yes, all is well. We are currently worrying about the French journalist killed in Syria, faulty French breast implants, and another 3500 job losses at the Royal Bank of Scotland.

A perfectly ordinary day.....

 

[Bala Verde]

Is the Euro debt crisis contained? Spain and Italy had greatly successful auctions. Germany sold debt with negative interest a few days ago.

too early to tell; the fundamentals of these countries, have they improved enough to boost investor's confidence; has ECB, EU action been able calm the markets enough, what about the long term changes (ie. EU harmonization of taxes?; stronger budget control and oversight mechanisms?; capitalization of banks) to prevent these things from happening again in the near future (if China sees a hard landing??) and what about Greece.

Yeah, what about Greece?
Greece’s Budget Deficit Widened Less Than Forecast in 2011

Hedge Funds Try to Profit From Greece as Banks Face Losses

Greece Euro Exit Poses Less Risk Now, Two Merkel Lawmakers Say

Final Outline Of Greek Debt Deal Could Be Agreed By End Next Week -Source

For now, it seems investors believe Spain/Italy are on the right track...but they are of course also dependent on external factors as mentioned before.

 

[python]

'Utterly deplorable': U.S. officials tell of disgust at footage showing troops 'urinating on dead Afghan bodies'

 

[Amsterhammer]

'Utterly deplorable': U.S. officials tell of disgust at footage showing troops 'urinating on dead Afghan bodies'

Abu Ghraib part 2

They'll be identified within days and they will be very seriously up **** street for a good long stretch. I can't believe that anyone would be so stupid as to film something as disgraceful as this in the first place. The mind boggles.

 

[python]

Abu Ghraib part 2

They'll be identified within days and they will be very seriously up **** street for a good long stretch. I can't believe that anyone would be so stupid as to film something as disgraceful as this in the first place. The mind boggles.

yes the mind boggles, but what is more disgraceful - the behavior of the american troops or the stupidity of the video ?


i suspect, this video is a fraction of the crimes never recorded on a video.

'freedom fighters'

 

[auscyclefan94]

They have probably got a file on me, then. I'll think of it as a badge of honour.

Well it is the 1st time I have agreed with Bob Brown in my life on an issue as spying on protesters is wrong.

 

[Cobblestones]

too early to tell; the fundamentals of these countries, have they improved enough to boost investor's confidence; has ECB, EU action been able calm the markets enough, what about the long term changes (ie. EU harmonization of taxes?; stronger budget control and oversight mechanisms?; capitalization of banks) to prevent these things from happening again in the near future (if China sees a hard landing??) and what about Greece.

Yeah, what about Greece?
Greece’s Budget Deficit Widened Less Than Forecast in 2011

Hedge Funds Try to Profit From Greece as Banks Face Losses

Greece Euro Exit Poses Less Risk Now, Two Merkel Lawmakers Say

Final Outline Of Greek Debt Deal Could Be Agreed By End Next Week -Source

For now, it seems investors believe Spain/Italy are on the right track...but they are of course also dependent on external factors as mentioned before.

Maybe the fundamentals of Italy and Spain never were so bad as to warrant the crisis? Greece is still screwed of course (note I wrote: is the debt crisis 'contained', not 'over').

And let me also express my disgust concerning the behavior of the four marines in the video.

 

[The Hitch]

Ive defended Chavez from a certain type of attack against him, because he did take power from a brutal oligarchy, and he was properly elected (at first anyway). However he is a moron (Bolivar) a very mean character, and recently the Chavistas are becoming very repulsive.

This latest episode from his greatest friend and ally.

http://en.mercopress.com/2012/01/12...g-of-gaddafi-and-offered-a-prayer-for-hussein