Worlds Copenhagen 2011

[RedheadDane]

Ah! This is perfect!

I'm referring to Sunday's weather.

 

[taiwan]

I know where you're coming from. A crash or mechanical and it could be over but I don't see any choice - it's Cav or nothing. I really doubt whether Swift is strong enough at this stage of his career to make it to the finale let alone be competitive against Hushovd and co - Thomas would probably be a better bet. Better to have the extra domestique.

Take your point. I'm not aware of him having done anything in a race of this length/level.

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

I know where you're coming from. A crash or mechanical and it could be over but I don't see any choice - it's Cav or nothing. I really doubt whether Swift is strong enough at this stage of his career to make it to the finale let alone be competitive against Hushovd and co - Thomas would probably be a better bet. Better to have the extra domestique.

This. And if Cav doesn't make it, G is more than useful in a tough finish.

 

[zapata]

I agree completely. Hagen should do well here aswell.

Hagen seems to be completely out of form though, getting progressively worse since the Tour. My sentimental favourites are Freire and Bennati.

 

[luckyboy]

No Froome in the British TT team?

 

[maltiv]

Ah! This is perfect!

I'm referring to Sunday's weather.

Perfect for us who will be there to watch, but bad for the racing!

 

[Winterfold]

Crikey that is a strong classics squad - how cycling in the UK has been transformed

I still think the difficulty of this finish is being over-played, but it is a slope and I would not bet my house on Cav

Did we get an answer on if the profile posted was the full route (with ~ 30m vertical ) ?

Re Swift not sure he would go the distance and Geraint is a very very good alternative option.

But... I think Thor

 

[luckyboy]

Yeah I've been saying Thor for a while now. Gilbert as an outside (!) chance if he can stay away.

 

[Winterfold]

Despite the awesomeness of the squad - GB are the ones who are going to have to do all the work because we have the most interest in keeping it together. So we are going to be knackered by the end. I can see Thor playing it smart and being the strongest at the end, and he is the best on that kind of finish - unless Cav does something really special.

I am not going to rule it out, but it is not the most likely outcome.

And of course, Gilbert may just ride away from everyone like the rest of the season (excerp Tour).

If GB can get Stannard in the break, then that would make things a more interesting and take the pressure off, and he could win. Geraint wont be allowed to go, and I am not sure any of the others would win from a break unless Millar or Wiggo can ride away.

Dream on.

Anyway, whoever wins, I love the Worlds, it's mad

 

[Pantani_lives]

Hagen seems to be completely out of form though, getting progressively worse since the Tour. My sentimental favourites are Freire and Bennati.

Are you kidding? He won the Eneco Tour and the Vattenfall Cyclassics.

I think this is a pure sprinter's course. That profile looks steep because it's compressed, but they don't go above 60m anywhere.

I don't like world championships. It's hardly ever a great race. Everyone is nervous because of the importance, and then a sprinter wins whom we haven't seen all day.

 

[Shardi]

Eneco and Vattenfall were the last bits of form for Eddy Boss. After those he has been on a decline.

 

[Tuarts]

Honestly I think he'll have a hard time on the final hill. It's 540 meters with 4% average or 578 meters with 3.7% average depending on which site you trust.

What are the most recent races which had a finish like this and included a lot of the top names?

Stage 5 TDF?

 

[greenedge]

I would have liked Swifty in for the same reason i would have liked Renshaw in for Australia. I'm not sure whether Cav will miss an extra pure sprinter but i think the answer might be yes. We saw at the TDF he got bounced off Thor like he was nothing and Geraint is not big. If there were 3 of them with maybe Wiggins/ Hunt around them they would not get misplaced. In the scenario with no Swift i can envisage something botching up their lead out.

 

[Tuarts]

Lmao. Swift would get dropped as soon as the race stepped up a notch after 200km

 

[royalpig180]

Stage 5 TDF?

That was a particularly impressive win from cav, but I think that's the exception rather than the rule. In general, the flatter the better for him. Can he win on a good day on a finish like this? Certainly. But the reality is that he's not the strongest rider on this type of finish. A Thor, Bennati, or even Sagan or Breschel is the ideal rider for this finish. When Cav is up against lesser competition, sure he's fast enough to win here. But when the best of the best are there and they're just as motivated as he is, I don't think Cav will have what it takes this year.

 

[Magnus]

Did we get an answer on if the profile posted was the full route (with ~ 30m vertical ) ?

The profile is of the 14 km circuit.

The 28 km before they hit the circuit is rather flat, though part of it is by the sea so could be a lot of wind there.

 

[luckyboy]

There's not going to be much effect from the wind seeing as there will be 200km+ left at that point.

 

[Tuarts]

That was a particularly impressive win from cav, but I think that's the exception rather than the rule. In general, the flatter the better for him. Can he win on a good day on a finish like this? Certainly. But the reality is that he's not the strongest rider on this type of finish. A Thor, Bennati, or even Sagan or Breschel is the ideal rider for this finish. When Cav is up against lesser competition, sure he's fast enough to win here. But when the best of the best are there and they're just as motivated as he is, I don't think Cav will have what it takes this year.

Yes but when postulating and trying to guess you can't just assume, you have to go with facts. For example if on form,

Cavendish CAN win MSR

Which means Cavendish

Can last the distance
Can get over small climbs
Can beat others who were in that race that are in this one (who was 3rd?)

Stage 5 TDF was just another finish with a climb that came into mind. Can trawl through his results and find more too I expect.

When trying to see how well a rider will do, you have to first look at what their best results are at this sort of thing and what they are capable of doing when in form etc. For which Cavendish ranks right up there. After that is then when you start considering other variables like the course, current form, other riders, weather etc etc. Will he do it is another question entirely but whilst he may not be amongst the "best" of the favourites he certainly is one of the favourites:

Sagan is 21 and has never proven himself at this distance.
Where did Bennati and Thor finish in MSR '09?

The finish here is long enough that if there is a pack it will play into the traditional sprinters hands, I think its about 800-900m after the last turn and the hill at around 4% is a drag upward instead of a sharp rise, level off, rise sort of thing like Stage 2 in the Vuelta.

So that's my thought on how Cav will do

 

[Ferminal]

Stage 5 it wasn't the finish which was uphill, but a 500m section in the 2nd or 3rd kilo IIRC. Was a remarkable win, but not quite the same. Cav can certainly win, but even if he survives I think it's advantage Gilbert in the sprint. GB squad is strong and if they are on form they can possibly deliver this to Cav - Millar or Wiggins under the flag and around the corner, and then G with a huge defensive pull until 150m or so. Belgian train will be tough to overcome though.

The Giro finish at Fiuggi Terme which Petacchi lost on the line was a gradual ramp in the last km. The Suisse stage Thor one was similar. Although the final 15-20km of these stages were difficult so Cav wasn't there, I think they might give some idea as to the sort of "long" sprint we will see.

Which reminds me, don't rule out Freire

 

[Pantani_lives]

During the Vuelta people say 12% isn't steep enough. During the world's they say 4% is incredibly steep.

 

[razorth]

Sagan is 21 and has never proven himself at this distance.
Where did Bennati and Thor finish in MSR '09?


So that's my thought on how Cav will do

MSR 09
Cav
Haussler
Hushovd

Hausslers jump was initially a leadout for Thor supposedly.

 

[Tuarts]

Stage 5 it wasn't the finish which was uphill, but a 500m section in the 2nd or 3rd kilo IIRC. Was a remarkable win, but not quite the same. Cav can certainly win, but even if he survives I think it's advantage Gilbert in the sprint. GB squad is strong and if they are on form they can possibly deliver this to Cav - Millar or Wiggins under the flag and around the corner, and then G with a huge defensive pull until 150m or so. Belgian train will be tough to overcome though.

The Giro finish at Fiuggi Terme which Petacchi lost on the line was a gradual ramp in the last km. The Suisse stage Thor one was similar. Although the final 15-20km of these stages were difficult so Cav wasn't there, I think they might give some idea as to the sort of "long" sprint we will see.

Which reminds me, don't rule out Freire

http://www.steephill.tv/players/you...oard=tour-de-france&alter_title=false&yr=2011

It was a climb and looking at the profile on the TDF site, last 800m was about 3-4%

TdS stage is a good example as well but note again all who were present at the front on the TdF stage

During the Vuelta people say 12% isn't steep enough. During the world's they say 4% is incredibly steep.

context [kon-tekst] con·text
 
noun
1.
the parts of a written or spoken statement that precede or follow a specific word or passage, usually influencing its meaning or effect: You have misinterpreted my remark because you took it out of context.
2.
the set of circumstances or facts that surround a particular event, situation, etc.
3.
Mycology . the fleshy fibrous body of the pileus in mushrooms.

 

[Pantani_lives]

http://www.steephill.tv/players/you...oard=tour-de-france&alter_title=false&yr=2011

It was a climb and looking at the profile on the TDF site, last 800m was about 3-4%

TdS stage is a good example as well but note again all who were present at the front on the TdF stage



context [kon-tekst] con·text
 
noun
1.
the parts of a written or spoken statement that precede or follow a specific word or passage, usually influencing its meaning or effect: You have misinterpreted my remark because you took it out of context.
2.
the set of circumstances or facts that surround a particular event, situation, etc.
3.
Mycology . the fleshy fibrous body of the pileus in mushrooms.

I just mean 4% for 400m or so isn't going to scare any sprinter.

 

[Ferminal]

http://www.steephill.tv/players/you...oard=tour-de-france&alter_title=false&yr=2011

It was a climb and looking at the profile on the TDF site, last 800m was about 3-4%

TdS stage is a good example as well but note again all who were present at the front on the TdF stage

1.4%

Although ASO profiles are unreliable, the final 300m looks flat whilst it looks steeper under the flag where Martin got a gap and EBH attacked.

 

[Tuarts]

Ok so wildly different to what mapmyride use, which get their info off googlemaps I think. Still, watch that video and tell me that uphill finish was 1.4%?