Worlds: evaluation of the favorites.

Page 2 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Nov 14, 2011
347
0
0
SafeBet said:
Yes he's riding. Nicolas Roche and Ronan McLaughlin the others being selected.
Ashamed to say i've never heard on the third guy. I thought it was going to be matt brammier?

I know Hutch is doing the TT alongside McCann (both northern irish!) and I reckon he has a chance to do well haven beaten the long standing 25 mile TT record (both british and irish) recently
 
Nov 16, 2011
426
0
0
Freire, if in top shape, could do it but only with the support of the Spanish armada, particularly with Valverde as the leadout man, particularly important as Freire will need the shelter and positioning to get into the sprint to annihilate the selection. Unfortunately, we've seen time and again where Valverde puts his own ambition ahead of the country. I certainly see that happening again, albeit with some validation that Valverde may in fact be the better rider of the team if Freire has even a hint of physical ailments.
 
Jul 5, 2011
858
0
0
theyoungest said:
Tejay could make it, of course, but don't you think it's a bit of a stretch to put him in this list, given his lack of classics pedigree?

Yes its a stretch but the US Pro Challenge showed he's coming of age. He should be still there.
 
Sep 13, 2012
17
0
0
I would say the favorites can be categorised somewhere along these lines:

*****
- Gilbert: that sprint in the Vuelta with Swift on his wheel... looks like he is back in great shape

****
- Sagan: this guy can do anything, the way he followed Cancellara in Liege in de Tour was impressive
- Valverde: If he is anywhere near his shape of the end of the Vuelta, he can win this

*** ("why not")
- Gerrans: supposedly smart and has already won big this year
- Boonen: I don't think the world is going to be as tough as AGR + he already impressed on the Cauberg with a flat tire
- Nibali: Italy generally performs well in World Championships + has a whole team at his service
- Rodriguez: not a winner, but damn was he strong in the Vuelta

** ("unlikely")
Boasson Hagen - Contador - Nordhaug - Freire - Voeckler - Samuel Sanchez

* ("you never know")
Moser - Tiernan-Locke - Van Avermaet - Degenkolb - Albasini - Rui Costa - Moreno - Betancur - Uran - Paolini - Boom - Chavanel
 
*****
Gilbert Only.
****
Sagan, Gerrans, Boonen, Valverde and JROD
***
Moser, Nibali, Freire, Contador, Voeckler, GVA, Costa and EBH
**
Mollema, Uran, Henao, Betancur, Clarke ( do not rule him out- he has good form )/ Davis ( if he can stick with Boonen ), Samu, Moreno, Terpstra, Albasini, Degenkolb, Nordhaug, Kolobnev, Breschel.

One rider who i also think could do well as an under the radar- Luca Paolini. He seems strong/ has the experience. Can be used tactically.

Belgium has the best cards, whilst Spain need the race to be hard- dropping Boonen/ Gilbert and Sagan. The only one who could win against Gilbert would be Valverde and Freire better be like the cat of old to beat Boonen/ Sagan.
 
rainman said:
Yes its a stretch but the US Pro Challenge showed he's coming of age. He should be still there.
Like El Pistolero allready said his white jersey and 5th(I think) place in the TdF mean a lot more then his performance in the US Pro Challenge.

A one-day race is still different from riding a good stage race though.
 
Jul 16, 2010
17,463
0
0
theyoungest said:
Tejay could make it, of course, but don't you think it's a bit of a stretch to put him in this list, given his lack of classics pedigree?


But Boonen isn't confronted with real hills riders in Flanders. Except for Gilbert, who usually isn't at his best there.

I don't think the 1.5 km to the finish matter much. I'll be surprised if a group manages to pull back a guy who has gone clear over the Cauberg.
Well, Voeckler, Sagan, Gilbert and GVA were there. ;) Paolo Bettini was there back in 2005-2006. He actually had to let go of Boonen and Hoste on the Valkenberg which isn't a cobbled hill.

It's not like Andy Schleck or Contador could drop Boonen on the Oude Kwaremont anyway.

On the other hand, do you believe the AGR is too hard for riders like Ballan, Pippo and Cancellara?
 
I've revised my previous entry to reflect a more objective view. :)

***** Sagan, Gilbert, Valverde
**** Rodriguez, Nibali, Gerrans, Boasson Hagen
*** Nordhaug, Betancur, Voeckler, Freire, Boonen, Moser
** Van Avermaet, Uran, Costa, Tiernan-Locke, Terpstra, Paolini
* Contador, Kolobnev, Albasini, Grivko, Roche, Breschel, Sanchez

I refuse to recognize Gilbert as the overwhelming favorite. My guess is that these are the same people who said Contador was a favorite for the ITT.
 
cineteq said:
I've revised my previous entry to reflect a more objective view. :)

***** Sagan, Gilbert, Valverde
**** Rodriguez, Nibali, Gerrans, Boasson Hagen
*** Nordhaug, Betancur, Voeckler, Freire, Boonen, Moser
** Van Avermaet, Uran, Costa, Tiernan-Locke, Terpstra, Paolini
* Contador, Kolobnev, Albasini, Grivko, Roche, Breschel, Sanchez

I refuse to recognize Gilbert as the overwhelming favorite. My guess is that these are the same people who said Contador was a favorite for the ITT.
If Sagan is on top form, otherwise I'd give him 4 stars.
I would also lower Boasson Hagen and JTL (never shown anything on stuff like this)
 
Freire and Boonen will battle it out I guess. Boonen has been almost unbeatable in one day races this year and the WC has been his main target for the last 6 months whilst others have been dispersing their energy especially the Spanish climbers at the Vuelta (can't blame them though, it is their national GT). Freire is the WC specialist plus he has both the sprint and the ability to survive the Cauberg. Both have the experience and are good tacticians. The Italians are always good in the WC too, but their team is experimental and while both Moser and Nibali have the potential to win and Paolini will definitely feature, since Nibali has been riding a very full schedule this year and Moser is still unproven in a WC, I don't think they will win it this year.
 
Jul 29, 2012
11,703
3
0
El Pistolero said:
Well, Voeckler, Sagan, Gilbert and GVA were there. ;) Paolo Bettini was there back in 2005-2006. He actually had to let go of Boonen and Hoste on the Valkenberg which isn't a cobbled hill.

It's not like Andy Schleck or Contador could drop Boonen on the Oude Kwaremont anyway.

On the other hand, do you believe the AGR is too hard for riders like Ballan, Pippo and Cancellara?
Contador dropped Boonen on the muur though ;)

Contador has a lot of power, he might do it :D
 
Jul 29, 2012
11,703
3
0
LaFlorecita said:
Which he was.
I really like this.

Remember the day before fuente de? Everybody said Contador lost it.

Not many people think Contador can do much sunday. That's how I like it ;)

It feeds Contador, that's how real champions are. Gotta love it.
 
Jul 8, 2012
314
0
0
the asian said:
The Cauberg is climbed 10 times.

It will be very surprising if he survives that.
And the italians want a hard race according to Bettini. Only way to give Nibali a fighting chance of winning. Same goes for Spain I guess, they don't want a relatively fresh Gilbert and/or Boonen (and/or Sagan) at the foot of Cauberg on the last lap.
 
Falken said:
And the italians want a hard race according to Bettini. Only way to give Nibali a fighting chance of winning. Same goes for Spain I guess, they don't want a relatively fresh Gilbert and/or Boonen (and/or Sagan) at the foot of Cauberg on the last lap.
If Gilbert is tired on that parcours, everyone is.
 
Jul 8, 2012
314
0
0
Panda Claws said:
If Gilbert is tired on that parcours, everyone is.
Still, if Boonen and Sagan is gone, the odds for an italian or spaniard winner is greater than if they aren't dropped.
 
Jul 13, 2012
342
0
0
Falken said:
Still, if Boonen and Sagan is gone, the odds for an italian or spaniard winner is greater than if they aren't dropped.
Does anyone have the inside word on Sagan's form, Canada was inconclusive for me.I've seen some people say he is bang out of form and others are tipping him strongly.I think he's the key to the race but nobody seems to know if he's going well or not? :confused:
 
Telmisartan new said:
Does anyone have the inside word on Sagan's form, Canada was inconclusive for me.I've seen some people say he is bang out of form and others are tipping him strongly.I think he's the key to the race but nobody seems to know if he's going well or not? :confused:
I think he'll be at his Suisse/AGR level, but not at his tour level, since he said he was not at as good as in the TDF (could be lying of course)

Considering he lost to Vanendert and Gasparotto in Amstel...
 
Jul 13, 2012
342
0
0
Panda Claws said:
I think he'll be at his Suisse/AGR level, but not at his tour level, since he said he was not at as good as in the TDF (could be lying of course)

Considering he lost to Vanendert and Gasparotto in Amstel...
Affirmative.Is that still good enough to win?
 
Telmisartan new said:
Affirmative.Is that still good enough to win?
Yes, I think so but then it'll have to be from a small group that comes back after the Cauberg.

e.g.

Top of the Cauberg

Gilbert
Valverde at 4"
Gerrans at 7"
Sagan at 9"


The 3 form a group behind Gilbert, catch him on the flat and Sagan wins the sprint.
 
Jul 13, 2012
342
0
0
Panda Claws said:
Yes, I think so but then it'll have to be from a small group that comes back after the Cauberg.

e.g.

Top of the Cauberg

Gilbert
Valverde at 4"
Gerrans at 7"
Sagan at 9"


The 3 form a group behind Gilbert, catch him on the flat and Sagan wins the sprint.
Interesting Panda.I already tipped Gilbert but something about Sagan is gnawing away at me,like i have written him off without knowing how well he's really going.Watched RVV again the other night, he could and maybe should have won that race.Its almost impossible to say what he is capable of.He can't switch off tactically (obvious statement,none of them can afford to do that) but i also think he can win this.Not buying some's view that he's too young/inexperienced.
 
Aug 12, 2010
128
0
0
Panda Claws said:
Yes, I think so but then it'll have to be from a small group that comes back after the Cauberg.

e.g.

Top of the Cauberg

Gilbert
Valverde at 4"
Gerrans at 7"
Sagan at 9"


The 3 form a group behind Gilbert, catch him on the flat and Sagan wins the sprint.
I think Gerrans and Valverde are smarter than that. They're not just going to bring Sagan back to get beaten in a sprint and I don't think they are riders who are racing with a "oh well, at least I have a shot at a medal this way" attitude, they wanna win and they have do ditch Sagan to do that. Failing that, they will let Sagan close the gap to Gilbert by himself.
 
Panda Claws said:
Yes, I think so but then it'll have to be from a small group that comes back after the Cauberg.

e.g.

Top of the Cauberg

Gilbert
Valverde at 4"
Gerrans at 7"
Sagan at 9"


The 3 form a group behind Gilbert, catch him on the flat and Sagan wins the sprint.
But then Gilbert will finish off the podium :( :p
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS