Worlds: your favourite.

[Pricey_sky]

Amazingly for this forum, I think Sagan is being underrated. He alone gives Slovakia at least the fourth best chance of winning the race.

Sure, he doesn't have the team support to cover every attack, but if it's any sort of a bunch finish he's plainly the one to beat.

+1 he's the only class sprinter that could be there in a small bunch finish. I still think it will be Gilbert though.

 

[maltiv]

Amazingly for this forum, I think Sagan is being underrated. He alone gives Slovakia at least the fourth best chance of winning the race.

Sure, he doesn't have the team support to cover every attack, but if it's any sort of a bunch finish he's plainly the one to beat.

Meh. He didn't show particularly promising form in Plouay, Quebec or Montreal. If he's not at his best, he can't keep up on this course.

Even Sagan's trainer said in an interview that he's not in top shape.

 

[Afrank]

Sagan's trainer said he is not at his best but is still a threat (http://velonews.competitor.com/2012...still-a-threat-for-worlds-says-trainer_238620). Sagan has already peaked this year so I don't expect him to win, at best he might be able to get on the podium or in the top 5. I don't think he will be able to match Gilbert, Purito, and Valverde on the Cauberg though.

 

[The Barb]

Thanks for linking to that article, which I hadn't seen.

I'm still wary of reading too much into those kind of comments, however. It makes sense for Sagan and his entourage to have others believe he is off his best. If he were known to be in his Tour form then other teams might collaborate to eliminate him from the lead group and/or force him to chase down attacks.

 

[Pippo_San]

Meh. He didn't show particularly promising form in Plouay, Quebec or Montreal. If he's not at his best, he can't keep up on this course.

Even Sagan's trainer said in an interview that he's not in top shape.

You've not been very careful in following Montreal...he was there with the very best in the last 4 kms just before the Nordhaug split, and he took some pulls at the front too.

He'll be ready.
Unfortunately for him, there's JTL.

 

[CobbleStoner]

With this course, I'm quite certain that we'll have a good selection on the last ascent of Cauberg. However, I have a feeling that no one will get a big enough gap to continue over the top, as there as so many puncheurs who are at about the same level (Gilbert, Rodriguez, Valverde etc marking each other out). Things kinda stop up at the top as no one wants to work, so a group of 10-15 is soon together on the flat.

Then the most random guy in the group attacks (while the favourites watch each other) and takes the victory.

For example: Albasini, Nordhaug, Costa, Wegmann, Voeckler etc.

I don't believe this will happen, it is too short and fast to the finish, never really any flat to regroup on. the Cauberg isn't really that defined at the top (the steep section is in the middle), so you are in a pretty big gear going fast by the time you hit the actual top, and after that it is a bit downhill, one slight rise, then a straight, very slight downhill to the line, seemed very quick when I rode it, so I don't see a big gap being bridged in the last 1.5k

If Spain works as a team with a couple of sacrafices (and utilizes the early aggressive small teams) it is Valverde's. If they don't, Gilbert or Sagan will be in the jersey

I voted Spain out of common sense, but of course, will be cheering on the home team which, I think, stands a better chance than the poll indicates. Horner has shown that he can go the distance in Ardennes classics and make the final group, but lacks a good finish. I think he could make a good pilot fish for Van Garderen. It all comes down to making it to the final circuit in the front group as I imagine a good deal of selection will have happen before that, but still a sizable group, with a break up the road going as they enter the final 10 laps. Most of the US riders have chosen to remain at altitude which is an advantage to a point, but a few race back on these roads would have helped.

Farrar is questionable and actually Talansky would be a better choice anyway. I don't see any sprinters hanging on to the finish so Farrar as choice was a puzzle to me. The final ten laps will be become more brutal each time up the up the Cauberg at that distance.

Netherlands is the home team, and although they will do better than the USA, they will not be in the hunt for a podium. TJVG is the only one that has the ability to be there in the end, but he has already peaked and had a long hard season for such a young rider. he will get good crowd support from being on Rabbobank development team and family here.

here is a pic of the finish line from Saturday's TTT practise

 

[No_Balls]

The spanish have too many top dogs though and that could be a problem if whom you going to drive for is not sorted out early. The belgians wont have the same problem.

 

[rainman]

I dont know Cancellara's current form or Albasini but seems strange to exclude Switzerland from the poll.

 

[nogav1ca]

Cancellara is not riding.

 

[Sylvester]

I dont know Cancellara's current form or Albasini but seems strange to exclude Switzerland from the poll.

Cancellara is injured and ended his season.

Albasini is lacking form.

I wonder whether Betancur will be able to surprise the top riders. I can't see him outfox the likes of Sagan and Gilbert, but he's Colombia's best chance on this parcours for sure.

 

[Angliru]

Maybe in 2011 mode,but with form they have nowadays I dont think sf course it depends on tactics.Both are excelent in tactics,but who is better?

btw.is there slightly uphill finish or what?About 3% or more?

Gilbert is the more likely of the 2 to initiate the sprint. Valverde will, if in position, mark Gilbert's wheel and attempt to come around him at the line. Valverde isn't likely to try to drag race with Gilbert.

 

[ILovecycling]

Gilbert is the more likely of the 2 to initiate the sprint. Valverde will, if in position, mark Gilbert's wheel and attempt to come around him at the line. Valverde isn't likely to try to drag race with Gilbert.

Thank you for the opinion,I agree

 

[J-King]

I voted Belgium! Spain No2 -----gap------ Slovenia, Australia, ...

Not only because I am blinded by my own national pride, but also because I prefer having the top favorite & outsider over 1 lesser favorite (Valverde) and 4 outsiders. Especially if those outsiders have names like Rodriguez and Contador. Insert something with cycling being a team sport. Too bad Belgium generally isn't too strong on the tactical side (see Gilbert in the Olympics).

 

[Andre.J]

Holland is no place for Spain. Belgium will win. They only have to keep an eye on Italy.

 

[nogav1ca]

I voted Belgium! Spain No2 -----gap------ Slovenia, Australia, ...

Not only because I am blinded by my own national pride, but also because I prefer having the top favorite & outsider over 1 lesser favorite (Valverde) and 4 outsiders. Especially if those outsiders have names like Rodriguez and Contador. Insert something with cycling being a team sport. Too bad Belgium generally isn't too strong on the tactical side (see Gilbert in the Olympics).

Bozic FTW! Yeah, he will be leading Slovenian team.

Sagan is racing for Slovakia.

 

[Netserk]

For me the three biggest favourites are Gilbert, Valverde and Gerrans.

 

[pdluz7]

Here, Spain Team. <http://www.marca.com/2012/09/21/ciclismo/1348244004.html>, "Menos duro de lo previsto".