Your Tour Predictions

[Galic Ho]

Nobody has started one to my knowledge and seeing how people like to speculate I thought I'd start one. Drop in your top 3, 5, 10, heck the entire finish list and any winners of stages you care to list. A nice documented record is in order seeing most people cannot recall the statements and predictions they make. Feel free to drop back here come after the Giro, Suisse and Dauphine when July hits and see who has changed their tune. Most will have.

In no particular order and without reason here is my top 10 if they race in July.

1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Alejandro Valverde
4. Samuel Sanchez
5. Dennis Menchov
6. Franck Schleck
7. Cadel Evans
8. Lance Armstrong
9. Vicenzo Nibali
10. Bradley Wiggins

Think you boy has the goods? Put his name down. I don't care if you want to rip this to shreds. Knock yourself out for all I care. However the top 6 will not change barring some bad blood bags, a crash or the AFLD scaring them off. CVV, plus the other Liquigas guys you are thinking about. Yeah they can make the top 10, but top 7 guys listed are the best in the business the last 3 years. Add in Sastre, who won't race the Tour because he will win the Giro, and the list is elite and a select few. Evans could go higher but he will come second to Sastre in Italy. Yes it will be very funny to watch. I think that 3 through to 6 will be very close come Paris. Very close. Everyone after that will be lucky not to be 10 minutes back.

Stage winners:

Gerrans, Gesink, Vinokourov, some French guy, some doped guy and Cavendish again and again. See, predictions really are simple.

In the unlikely case I am wrong, you have documentation. Not that I'll forget by July who I thought would win. Also the list and predictions stand till July 1st. Modify all you like till then.

Why did I start this thread? Well I dropped by the Paris-Nice thread and people had their lists for stage 4. I didn't see one that was close. Not that I think it is hard to see how a stage will unfold if you know the profile and existing time gaps and rider attitudes. Some had Valverde and Kreuziger ahead of AC! Funny guys, funny.

 

[taiwan]

First Draft:

Contador
Valverde
Sanchez S.
Schleck A.
Menchov
Evans
Basso
Nibali
Gesink
Wiggins

Credible?

 

[luckyboy]

1. A.Contador 87h17'12"
2. D.Menchov +02'57"
3. A.Schleck +04'16"
4. V.Nibali +04'49"
5. S.Sanchez +06'16"
6. Valv-Piti +09'02"
7. R.Kreuziger +09'53"
8. B.Wiggins +13'06"
9. R.Gesink +13'28"
10. F.Schleck +14'45"


F.Cancellara will wear the yellow jersey for a few stages after winning the prologue + the TT. Menchov will get the time he loses in the MTs back in the TT, putting him above Andy.

Sprints are gonna be harder to predict this year, but Cav for green sounds the best option at this stage.

A Frenchman will finish in polka-dots (maybe after winning the Pau stage from a break).

Euskaltel will win a stage (and hopefully the rider will be clean).

Team prize goes to Liquigas or Rabo.

 

[Moondance]

Well, I'll give it a go.

1. Alberto Contador
2. Andy Schleck
3. Denis Menchov
4. Alejandro Valverde
5. Samuel Sanchez
6. Lance Armstrong
7. Frank Schleck
8. Bradley Wiggins
9. Carlos Sastre
10. Vincenzo Nibali

It's a pretty old podium, granted, but I think the competetion will be too great for some of the younger GC pretenders like Martin, Kreuziger or Gesink, all of whom will have internal competition for the team leadership. Evans I leave out because a serious attempt to take the Giro would be too weakening against such a solid field, which is also why I don't expect too much from the Liquigas boys. If one of their 'Big Four' would get spared for the Giro, but promised full and undivided team backing for the Tour GC, he would obviously rocket up this list. Sastre could also be higher depending on how seriously he will attack the Giro.

Cav will win the Green, and Fedrigo will take the Polka Dots.

 

[Galic Ho]

First Draft:

Contador
Valverde
Sanchez S.
Schleck A.
Menchov
Evans
Basso
Nibali
Gesink
Wiggins

Credible?

Very good list. I want to see an all Spanish podium but I am pretty sure Andy Schleck can put enough time into Samu and Valverde on the hills to make second his. Don't know about Gesink but I like it. Hopefully he can stay on his bike this year in the GTs. He broke his arm in the Tour and fell in the final week of the Vuelta last year. Evans and BMC aren't guaranteed a spot. Might be a good thing for Gesink seeing Cadel will probably cut his head off if Gesink blocks him ever again in a sprint. I have no clue about Basso. He is the only rider I cannot figure out. I don't think he is as good as he is made out to be. That being said, he will probably be the top Liquigas rider. The Giro will reveal more about Liquigas. Kreuziger and Nibali are almost interchangeable. They are confusing as well often swapping performances.

 

[Galic Ho]

It's a pretty old podium, granted, but I think the competetion will be too great for some of the younger GC pretenders like Martin, Kreuziger or Gesink, all of whom will have internal competition for the team leadership. Evans I leave out because a serious attempt to take the Giro would be too weakening against such a solid field, which is also why I don't expect too much from the Liquigas boys. If one of their 'Big Four' would get spared for the Giro, but promised full and undivided team backing for the Tour GC, he would obviously rocket up this list. Sastre could also be higher depending on how seriously he will attack the Giro.

Cav will win the Green, and Fedrigo will take the Polka Dots.

Good list. You rate Menchov and Samu. Glad to see I am not the only one as everyone who posted so far thinks they will top 5. I think Franck is down a little to low. Also I have a feeling Sastre will race the Giro and Vuelta and skip the Tour.

Liquigas update. Basso and Pellizotti are riding the Tour and Giro double. The younger boys, Nibali and Kreuziger are put down for the Tour and Vuelta double. Liquigas announced it a few months back.

Pellizotti should be the leader for the Giro and Basso for the Tour with the youngsters given the Vuelta. However despite me believing that will occur at the Giro, for the Tour I suspect Basso will not be as strong as one of the youngsters who will go up the road regardless. Nibali is my pick but he and Kreuziger are interchangeable. There won't be a team order to slow down at Liquigas like there will be at the Shack if the captain blows out. Basso has to find another two gears on last seasons form to make the top 5. Ivan was good in the Giro and Vuelta but lost serious time to Menchov, Valverde and Samu. Add the Schlecks and Contador to that list and he is in serious trouble if he is the team captain in France.

 

[Moondance]

1. A.Contador 87h17'12"
2. A.Schleck +01'16"
3. S.Sanchez +01'28"
4. V.Nibali +01'53"
5. Valv-Piti +02'15"
6. D.Menchov +03'11"
7. R.Kreuziger +05'24"
8. B.Wiggins +07'48"
9. R.Gesink +07'57"
10. F.Schleck +09'31"

ZOMG..... Most exciting Tour EVAR!!!



Would be nice to see such a close race, but highly unrealistic. I doubt anyone can stay within three minutes of an in-form Contador, let alone 5 guys..... But a man can dream

 

[Galic Ho]

1. A.Contador 87h17'12"
2. A.Schleck +01'16"
3. S.Sanchez +01'28"
4. V.Nibali +01'53"
5. Valv-Piti +02'15"
6. D.Menchov +03'11"
7. R.Kreuziger +05'24"
8. B.Wiggins +07'48"
9. R.Gesink +07'57"
10. F.Schleck +09'31"


F.Cancellara will wear the yellow jersey for a few stages after winning the prologue. He will also win the TT.

Sprints are gonna be harder to predict this year, but Cav for green sounds the best option at this stage.

A Frenchman will finish in polka-dots (maybe after winning the Pau stage from a break).

Euskaltel will win a stage (and hopefully the rider will be clean).

Team prize goes to Liquigas/Saxo/Rabo.

Oh, and AC will win the stage to Mende - 24 seconds ahead of Piti, 25 to Kreuziger, 28 to Sanchez..

Confident? I like it. You even put the time gaps. Contador to win by 3 minutes as I see it. Third 5 minutes from Contador. In the event you are even remotely close on those times, I will be joining you next time you time travel, so be warned!

Igor Anton to pick up a stage for Euskatel. I'd love to see Freire win a stage in his last season. Unless Fuglsang gets in the top 20 for Saxo, then I see the team race being won by Shack or Liquigas who should both put a rider in the top 10 and another 2 in the top 20.

 

[theswordsman]

1. A.Contador 87h17'12"
2. A.Schleck +01'16"
3. S.Sanchez +01'28"
4. V.Nibali +01'53"
5. Valv-Piti +02'15"
6. D.Menchov +03'11"
7. R.Kreuziger +05'24"
8. B.Wiggins +07'48"
9. R.Gesink +07'57"
10. F.Schleck +09'31"


F.Cancellara will wear the yellow jersey for a few stages after winning the prologue. He will also win the TT.

Sprints are gonna be harder to predict this year, but Cav for green sounds the best option at this stage.

A Frenchman will finish in polka-dots (maybe after winning the Pau stage from a break).

Euskaltel will win a stage (and hopefully the rider will be clean).

Team prize goes to Liquigas/Saxo/Rabo.

Oh, and AC will win the stage to Mende - 24 seconds ahead of Piti, 25 to Kreuziger, 28 to Sanchez..

Could you be a bit more specific, please?

For myself, Contador for the win is my carved in stone selection. I'd like to see Basso in the top five, but need to see him race first. Sastre will be top ten if he rides.

I should have just waited to post until after the Giro

 

[Moondance]

Good list. You rate Menchov and Samu. Glad to see I am not the only one as everyone who posted so far thinks they will top 5. I think Franck is down a little to low. Also I have a feeling Sastre will race the Giro and Vuelta and skip the Tour.

Liquigas update. Basso and Pellizotti are riding the Tour and Giro double. The younger boys, Nibali and Kreuziger are put down for the Tour and Vuelta double. Liquigas announced it a few months back.

Pellizotti should be the leader for the Giro and Basso for the Tour with the youngsters given the Vuelta. However despite me believing that will occur at the Giro, for the Tour I suspect Basso will not be as strong as one of the youngsters who will go up the road regardless. Nibali is my pick but he and Kreuziger are interchangeable. There won't be a team order to slow down at Liquigas like there will be at the Shack if the captain blows out. Basso has to find another two gears on last seasons form to make the top 5. Ivan was good in the Giro and Vuelta but lost serious time to Menchov, Valverde and Samu. Add the Schlecks and Contador to that list and he is in serious trouble if he is the team captain in France.

Well, I rate Menchov highly because the dude is second only to Contador and St. Lance in actual Grand Tour victories in the current peleton. His victory in the Giro last year was great and he beat some impressive guys (a high on CERA Di Luca, Pellizotti, Sastre, Basso). Also he's a well balanced in terms of time-trialing and climbing, also he might be able to count on the services of Gesink to do some of his dirty work in the climbs. I like Sanchez because he seems to be continuously improving his consistency in the high mountains, and a couple of the 'mountain' stages will feature descents to the actual finish, which will allow him a chance to get back even if he gets dropped on the climb proper.

I'm still bearish on Liquigas though. Bringing all four of their GC men there, without any clear direction on who is the #1 man, is asking for trouble.

 

[luckyboy]

What I posted was very unrealistic, but fun

Also, unless Andy improves on TTing, I can see him not getting 2nd. Didn't want to put Menchov that high either, but if he's on form, he will be higher than that. Also the Liquigas thing - I'm not even sure who will be at the Tour for them. I've seen all 4 GT riders might go (?!), but that was what might happen without Basso and Franco (I think at least Franco will go for the Giro anyway). Sastre and Cadel aren't there because of the Giro too. Well, Cadel might not be there at all because hopefully Vacansoleil will be. I was thinking maybe Kloden on the fringes, but not if he's gonna be dragging LA's sorry carcass around France.

Changed mine! Menchov higher up, less of what I want to happen and more realism (though Nibali still high up).

 

[Willy_Voet]

You all are so racist, I don't see a single Frenchman on those lists.

 

[Willy_Voet]

First Draft:

Contador
Valverde
Sanchez S.
Schleck A.
Menchov
Evans
Basso
Nibali
Gesink
Wiggins

Credible?

Well, 9/10 are by last count...only Basso has done time. Valv-Piti is in legal limbo, so I'll give him a pass.

 

[taiwan]

You all are so racist, I don't see a single Frenchman on those lists.

Was about to do a top 20, and put Christophe Le Mevel in it. He got a random top ten last year, and this year he's climbing very well already. David Moncoutié? Fedrigo? Don't think so.

Well, 9/10 are by last count...only Basso has done time. Valv-Piti is in legal limbo, so I'll give him a pass.

Generous!

 

[Kingsley A]

Why did I start this thread? Well I dropped by the Paris-Nice thread and people had their lists for stage 4. I didn't see one that was close. Not that I think it is hard to see how a stage will unfold if you know the profile and existing time gaps and rider attitudes. Some had Valverde and Kreuziger ahead of AC! Funny guys, funny.

I hold my hands up to this insanity! If only I'd listened to my head, been sensible, forgotten about Kreuziger and put AC where he should have been, I may have gotten away with having Samu and Valverde in the wrong order but ho hum.

So now for some more picks that will also likely be horribly wrong and are also partly based on wishful thinking and gut instinct rather than cold, hard, informed analysis...

GC:
1) Contador
2) A. Schleck
3) Nibali
4) S. Sanchez
5) Menchov
6) F. Schleck
7) Valverde
8) Sastre
9) Vandevelde
10) Wiggins


Green:
1) Cavendish
2) Boasson Hagen
3) Hushovd


KOM:
1) Moncoutié
2) Pellizotti
3) B. Feillu

White:
1) A. Schleck
2) Gesink
3) Kreuziger

Team:
1) Liquigas
2) Saxobank
3) Radioshack

Combativity:
Hoogerland



Obviously, part of my wishful thinking is that it will be Vacansoleil that gets the nod over BMC otherwise Feillu and Hoogerland are out and I have to find room for Evens at the lower end of the top ten on GC. Similarly, if Valv.piti's CAS cases go against him, he disappears and L.L. Sanchez should appear on the list. Armstrong isn't there because I don't want him there but if I was more objective he could easily replace either Wiggo or CVV.

Also, I may have my understanding of the Young Rider category slightly wrong and Nibali may still qualify or Sclecklett may be out, in which case that is ballsed up too!

On the stage prediction front, I am willing to make two: Cancellara for the Prologue and Contador for the MTF on the Tourmalet.


Now watch me be wrong!

 

[Andrichuk]

Tom Boonen will win the Prologue, top 3 in ITT and one sprinting stage.

 

[Jancouver]

GC:
1) Contador
2) A. Schleck
3) Kloden
4) Menchov
5) Van Den Broeck
6) Armstrong
7) Valverde
8) Roman Kreuziger
9) Cadel Evans
10) S. Sanchez
11) Levi L.
12) Vandevelde
13) Gesink
14) Tony Martin
15) Nibali
16) Boasson Hagen
17) Sastre
18) F. Schleck
19) Basso
20) Sandy Casar


Green:
1) Cavendish
2) T. Boonen
3) Hushovd


KOM:
1) Pellizotti
2) Contador
3) A. Schleck

White:
1) A. Schleck
2) Kreuziger
3) Boasson Hagen

Team:
1) Radioshack
2) Liquigas
3) Saxobank

 

[mr. tibbs]

CVV, plus the other Liquigas guys you are thinking about. Yeah they can make the top 10, but top 7 guys listed are the best in the business the last 3 years.

That was great. I actually lol'd cuz I really was wondering where the Green Guys were.

Here're mine:

! - Contador
@ - a Schleck (the younger one)
# - TBA
$ - Somebody in green
% - TBA
^ - Kloden; (But only if Leipheimer gets hurt/abandons)
&c.

 

[Ferminal]

Contador
Valverde
Schleck
Sanchez
Kloden
Armstrong
Wiggins
Frank
Vandevelde
Kreuziger

I don't think BMC get an invite, but if they do I'd put Evans somewhere in the 5-8 group.

Edit: What about Vino

 

[BroDeal]

Should not we be making Giro predictions before Tour predictions? Or is the Giro too unimportant to bother with?

 

[msjett]

Should we not be making Giro predictions before Tour predictions? Or is the Giro too unimportant to bother with?

Very True BroDeal....you could always start the thread?

Not much point saying your predictions for the tour until we find out who is going, and even then I wouldn't make a prediction till the night before cause you never know who won't make it to the start.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

GC:
1) Contador
2) A. Schleck
3) Kloden
4) Menchov
5) Van Den Broeck
6) Armstrong
7) Valverde
8) Roman Kreuziger
9) Cadel Evans
10) S. Sanchez
11) Levi L.
12) Vandevelde
13) Gesink
14) Tony Martin
15) Nibali
16) Boasson Hagen
17) Sastre
18) F. Schleck
19) Basso
20) Sandy Casar

Don't be offended, but IMO this is insane. EBH is not a mountain man. Not yet anyway (IMO he will never contend a GT), and hasn't indicated any thing in the mountains.. ever. Him beating the likes of sastre, schleck and basso blows my mind. EBH has never ever (IMO of course) shown something in the mountains that would suggest he's gonna be up there in the GTs. Green jersey is a possibility, but he wont be up there with the big GC men. no way. [/RANT] EBH IMO is starting to be overrated by some on this forum.

My list to come..

 

[Inner Peace]

1. Alberto Contador (1st in Vuelta, after)
2. Cadel Evans (2nd in Giro)
3. Andy Schleck
4. Levi Leipheimer
5. Lance Armstrong
6. Frank Schleck
7. Ivan Basso (5th in Giro)
8. Bradley Wiggins (10th in Giro)
9. Christian Vande Velde
10. Alejandro Valverde
11. Carlos Sastre (1st in Giro)
12. Robert Gesink
13. Lady Gaga
14. Samuel Sanchez
15. Andreas Kloden
16. Vincenzo Nibali
17. Roman Kreuziger
18. Denis Menchov
19. Chris Horner
20. Fabian Cancellara

Pretty sure this will be changed many times up till July

Since everyone is doing stages too, i'll add some:

Prologue: Cancellara
Tourmalet: Contador
ITT: Leipheimer

Boasson Hagen for at least one breakaway stage win
Cavendish won't get green - likely Hushovd again, or even Boasson Hagen. Cav to maybe only get 3 stages...

 

[WonderLance]

Cool, a le tour thread we all know its the only race that counts. I was getting sick of thinking about Roubaix, Flanders Amstel and the Giro when Lance isn’t even racing in these events they're just full of greasy foreigners who can’t even speak English and are all charging.

My Predictions

1. Lance
2. Some foreigner (+15.00)
3. Some other foreigner (+16.00)


57. Bertie Beatle

All stages, jerseys and teams classification won by RadioPalace.

 

[ak-zaaf]

1. Contador
2. Aschleck
3. Nibali
4. Gesink
5. Kloden
6. Menchov
7. Kreuziger
8. Wiggins
9. Ssanchez
10. Fschleck

jeeeeeeeeeee