Your Tour Predictions

[Galic Ho]

So your going to tell me that nobody will have crashes and none of the teams will at least try something or put the hammer down?

You've heard me say similar things about the cobbles for months now. Nothing amongst the GC contendors will happen. I doubt anyone will fall. Maybe a tyre will need changing. As for a move. Why bother? HTC won't do it and on a flat stage there is really no point unless a crosswind section comes along. To make it stick would require HTC to pull like last year. No way the other teams like Saxo, Astana, Liquigas, Caisse and Euskatel get caught with their pants down.

I expect some French guy to win that stage from a breakaway no less. It will be a non event. Too short and too flat to make a difference. The weather will be the biggest tell and that relies upon a big if. Wind. A big IF, considering for a move to work you have a 17km section to make it stick. Contador and the Schlecks have enough allies to mitigate any damage. Basically numbers. Trouble section, extra cautious riders and defensive teams working together to stop aggressors.

Does anyone know how far from the finish the cobbles are? If it is a long way then that is another reason for the cobbles to be insignificant race standings against the clock.

 

[Publicus]

You've heard me say similar things about the cobbles for months now. Nothing amongst the GC contendors will happen. I doubt anyone will fall. Maybe a tyre will need changing. As for a move. Why bother? HTC won't do it and on a flat stage there is really no point unless a crosswind section comes along. To make it stick would require HTC to pull like last year. No way the other teams like Saxo, Astana, Liquigas, Caisse and Euskatel get caught with their pants down.

I expect some French guy to win that stage from a breakaway no less. It will be a non event. Too short and too flat to make a difference. The weather will be the biggest tell and that relies upon a big if. Wind. A big IF, considering for a move to work you have a 17km section to make it stick. Contador and the Schlecks have enough allies to mitigate any damage. Basically numbers. Trouble section, extra cautious riders and defensive teams working together to stop aggressors.

Does anyone know how far from the finish the cobbles are? If it is a long way then that is another reason for the cobbles to be insignificant race standings against the clock.

I think they are toward the end of the stage, with cobbles ending inside of 5KM. That's off the top of my head. I could be wrong.

 

[Galic Ho]

Indeed, there were cobbled sections in the early stages of last years Vuelta but with the exception of one domestique snapping his head set there were no major crashes or time gaps there. The crashes on those stages were all away from the cobbled sections.

Ouch. Snapping his head. Ouch! How long was he out for? I must have missed that and I can see why. It is giving me a headache just thinking of it.

I don't see him doing all three either, so good to know we're on the same page!
(and I was kidding about the 16 yr old as well. Also, I was pretty cranky re: dissertation work when I wrote that )

Now that the cobbles have been mentioned perhaps Quickstep might make a move for a solo on that stage. Get Boonen up in a break halfway through the stage and let him go. Would HTC let that happen? Is Boonen a threat for the Maillot Vert? I can see him as a fringe challenger like McEwen and Freire for the odd stage sprint. However in front of them I can see Farrar, Cicchi, Hushovd, half of HTC and then Cav himself. I really hope HTC let another rider on the team get a win. Cav winning between 4 & 6 stages again would suck viewing wise.

About the cobbles. I think I will wait till I see the specifics. Maybe there might be a move and a group form off the peloton but every GC rider will be in that group. It would require a miracle or turn of fate for something to transpire that affects someone on GC negatively on day 3.

French boys on GC. I like Casar and Le Mevel. Voeckler? I don't think so. He should go for a stage win like the previous 3 years. Moncoutie? Cofidis don't have the support to put him up there but KOM is a solid option. Didn't he pick up the KOM in the Vuelta last year? Can the FDJ boys make the top 10. Not without a nice breakaway in the first two weeks. They can top 20 no problem but to challenge for top 10 this year without bonus time from a break would require a miracle for a Frenchman. I shouldn't need to explain why.

Rogers. I will zip my lips shut on this year, but comment on past years. I noticed after last years prologue, Rogers was up to the old aussie trick. Use the excuse book. "I threw my chain twice on the first hill." No you didn't Michael, but all the fans bought it. It is not a good precedent when after the first short stage you are making excuses. Then for good measure he almost removed Haussler from the race coming into Barcelona. I saw a connection between his riding in the first week and the prologue. Should I expect better this year? I will answer with another question. Is there any prior evidence to suggest so? That isn't a rhetorical question. The answer is no. Not even the hypothetical and hugely speculative virtual leadership in 2007. The Chicken was about to smoke Rogers as he did everyone else. Rogers would have played his hand as he always has and been found wanting. No offence there, but when you try and your best is not enough, admitting as much is the best policy. Bases on this you can tell how I see this year going for Rogers. Good luck to anyone other than Cav on HTC nabbing a win.

@Publicus. The last 5 or 6 kms seems to be the talk. Various sections and one ending about 5 clics from the finish. If anyone falls then they aren't safe. Another reason for every GC supporting team to be wary. Might work for Quickstep though. I really hope HTC do not win that stage unless they rip the finish apart. Winning has to look spectacular on stage 3!

 

[Sasquatch]

I'll call it now.

IF Valverde is riding in July, him and Contador will come first and second. Naturally, Contador will be first.

Schleck will be third.

You saw it here first.

Enjoy!!

 

[Cerberus]

Virtual after a couple of cat 1 and HC climbs if I remember right.

This was a few years ago after he had spent a few years hauling Virenque's *** up mountains and into contention.

I am not saying he is a genuine GC winner guy or ever was.

I am saying in that particular break and not crashing he would have gained a few minutes lead in the yellow by the end of the stage. His time trialling ability would have helped possibly gain or at least maintain the gap and would give him a fighting chance at yellow that year.

Remember he has finished in the top 20 a couple of times, I believe once in the top 10. This isn't some average hack. We have seen him ride up the HC cat climbs with the lead group in the past (especially when he was with Quick Step but he was the domestique for Richard which meant we have never really seen just how good he was/is).

I truly believe he was at his peak when he crashed, I also believe no one thought he was a top 5 threat and he was a darkhorse. he gains a few minutes then shocks everyone by holding on to Paris.

It is a hypothetical, but I don't think it is an unbelievable one.

Yes, it is an unbelievable one, starting with him gaining the lead by several minutes. To do that he'd have to keep up with Rasmussen and given how convincingly Rasmussen out climbed significantly better riders than Rogers there's no way that would have happened. Even if it did, Rogers couldn't defends a lead of a few minutes. His best result in the Tour is number 9 in 2006, 14 minutes down on the winner. Sure the yellow jersey might motivate him to do better, but not 12 minutes worth of better. He'd need 5-10 minutes at least to win, and even if he had kept pace with Rasmussen he wouldn't get that.

 

[tgsgirl]

The impact of the cobbles very much depends on the behaviour of the peloton. If they let some 'unimportant' riders get away and think "yeah, you win the stage and we'll all just ride slowly and safely to the finishline" then it'll be a dud. If, however, they arrive at the cobbles in a pack - more or less - and someone like Cancellara says "Andy, boy, get into my wheel, we're going to rip it up", and Hincapie does the same for Evans, Hushovd for Sastre, Flecha for Wiggo, and so on... and guys like Samu or Contador are left behind going "aaaaaargh, COBBLES!" then who knows.

 

[staubsauger]

never ever valverde will be in a top 10 of the tdf. sanchez also won't be in a top 5, he has some problems in the high mountains. we have seen that in last years vuelta.

contador is the man, but the big question is if he has the team to win it. i always remember how poor popovych cracked at the giro 04 against cunego, because landbouwkrediet hasn't got the team to defend the maglia rosa.

menchov has a big chance this year. if he's at the form of his giro win and nothing stupid will happen to him again - like it always have been in the past years - , he could beat contador if he get problems because of bad team support.

a. schleck will lose time to conta and menchov in the tt normally and will normally not win enuough in the mountains to beat them.

wiggings might be get disaffected this year.

gesink. i don't know why he didn't ride the giro. he could win there against pellizotti. the tour isn't specific to him, because of his tt skills.

liquigas maybe would get a problem, because there's no clear leader. but nibali will get a top 10 placement normally.

lance is a showbag, but he will definetly finish in the top 10, so as levi.

i'm not sure if pellizotti has got the power to win the polka dots again, after that brutal hard giro. maybe felliu? maybe someone from euskatel? maybe even gesink? or a small pure climber nobody knows yet, like soler 07? moncoutie not, the TdF is to hard for him,and he have already said he won't ride it this year. he wants to do the triple at the vuelta before his retirement.

will be an intresting tdf this year, even if conta dominate it all again. after him there's a abundance of gc contenders. 1 day could could make lose it all or win it all.

 

[Sasquatch]

never ever valverde will be in a top 10 of the tdf. sanchez also won't be in a top 5, he has some problems in the high mountains. we have seen that in last years vuelta.

contador is the man, but the big question is if he has the team to win it. i always remember how poor popovych cracked at the giro 04 against cunego, because landbouwkrediet hasn't got the team to defend the maglia rosa.

menchov has a big chance this year. if he's at the form of his giro win and nothing stupid will happen to him again - like it always have been in the past years - , he could beat contador if he get problems because of bad team support.

a. schleck will lose time to conta and menchov in the tt normally and will normally not win enuough in the mountains to beat them.

wiggings might be get disaffected this year.

gesink. i don't know why he didn't ride the giro. he could win there against pellizotti. the tour isn't specific to him, because of his tt skills.

liquigas maybe would get a problem, because there's no clear leader. but nibali will get a top 10 placement normally.

lance is a showbag, but he will definetly finish in the top 10, so as levi.

i'm not sure if pellizotti has got the power to win the polka dots again, after that brutal hard giro. maybe felliu? maybe someone from euskatel? maybe even gesink? or a small pure climber nobody knows yet, like soler 07? moncoutie not, the TdF is to hard for him,and he have already said he won't ride it this year. he wants to do the triple at the vuelta before his retirement.

will be an intresting tdf this year, even if conta dominate it all again. after him there's a abundance of gc contenders. 1 day could could make lose it all or win it all.

I'll wager $100 with you that Valverde comes in the top 10 if he rides the TDF this year.

 

[Lucky1]

Predictions:

In the unlikely event that all the following take part, are in good shape, haven’t exhausted themselves in the Giro, avoid injury/crashes/bans other random mishaps, tentative prediction for the top three is as follows:

1. A Schleck (assuming he manages to improve his TT he could do it)
2. Contador
3. Wiggo (though he could have done with an extra TT stage and a super-domestique for the mountain stages)

Beyond that it is much more difficult to predict the exact order but the rest of the top 15 will be between the following in very rough order:

Lance
Frank Schleck
Levi
Vandevelde
Gesink (a dark horse for a higher place)
Menchov (could do better if he manages to avoid his customary TdF blowup)
Samuel Sanchez
Basso
Kloeden
Nibali
Evans
Sastre

Green Jersey: Cav

KOM: Franco (assuming he goes for the Maglia Rosa in the Giro which would make sense)

The tougher prediction to make is whether the penny will drop for Prudhomme and persuade him to design a decent course for 2011 - MORE MOUNTAIN FINISHES PLEASE AND DON'T NEUTRALISE EITHER OF THE PYRANEES OR THE ALPES.

 

[Angliru]

The impact of the cobbles very much depends on the behaviour of the peloton. If they let some 'unimportant' riders get away and think "yeah, you win the stage and we'll all just ride slowly and safely to the finishline" then it'll be a dud. If, however, they arrive at the cobbles in a pack - more or less - and someone like Cancellara says "Andy, boy, get into my wheel, we're going to rip it up", and Hincapie does the same for Evans, Hushovd for Sastre, Flecha for Wiggo, and so on... and guys like Samu or Contador are left behind going "aaaaaargh, COBBLES!" then who knows.

That is my worst case, nightmarish scenario. Thanks for guaranteeing me a night of bad dreams!

 

[Angliru]

Why not? He was in virtual yellow and building on his lead. He was a solid climber who could defend the jersey and his time trialling back then was fantastic.

He was a climber that would lose up to a minute or more on the real contenders in the mountains and his ITT performances in the Tour always pailed significantly when compared to his WC efforts. The reason he would've be in yellow and would've be allowed the race lead was because he wasn't seen as a viable threat.

 

[DavidVilla7]

I have a feeling that contador might not win the tour

 

[luckyboy]

I don't see how he won't, unless he crashes. I don't think Menchov will take enough time out of him in the TT to make up for what he loses in the mountains. Btw, Menchov is the only guy I can see really challenging him. I'll wait and see how Schleck TTs before the Tour as well though.

 

[markene2]

1: Contador
2: Menchov
3: Armstrong
4: A.Schleck
5: Basso
6: Sanchez
7: F.Schleck
8: Nibali
9: Wiggins
10: Gesink

Green:
1: Petachi
2: Hushovd
3: Cavendish

Polka:
1: Vinokourov
2: Pellizoti
3: Le Mevel

Team:
1: Liquegas
2: RadioShack
3: Astana

Stage Winers: Contador, Cancelara, Vinokourov, Pettachi, Cavendish, Hunter. Voeckler

 

[Bicicleta]

My Asturian homies Rubiera and Noval discuss TdF: LA vs. AC.

Sorry - working don't have time to translate. Very good article though.

http://www.lne.es/deportes/2010/03/22/duelo-contador-armstrong/889995.html

Google translate will kill this - try Traduca http://tradukka.com/

 

[Hotbrakes]

For those that have Wiggins in your top 10 and not Evans....." your having a laugh". If Evans gets to go to the Tour, he will finish in front of Wiggins.
And anyone that has EBH in their top 10...." stop smoking crack".

 

[Moondance]

For those that have Wiggins in your top 10 and not Evans....." your having a laugh". If Evans gets to go to the Tour, he will finish in front of Wiggins.
And anyone that has EBH in their top 10...." stop smoking crack".

Just like last year, right

 

[Delicato]

Google translate will kill this - try Traduca http://tradukka.com/

Yeah, it's great, but actually works on basis of Google translate The same thing.

 

[Frosty]

The impact of the cobbles very much depends on the behaviour of the peloton. If they let some 'unimportant' riders get away and think "yeah, you win the stage and we'll all just ride slowly and safely to the finishline" then it'll be a dud. If, however, they arrive at the cobbles in a pack - more or less - and someone like Cancellara says "Andy, boy, get into my wheel, we're going to rip it up", and Hincapie does the same for Evans, Hushovd for Sastre, Flecha for Wiggo, and so on... and guys like Samu or Contador are left behind going "aaaaaargh, COBBLES!" then who knows.

This stage offers some people the opportunity to get time on others. Seeing as Contador is perhaps both the best tter and best climber of the leading contenders but hasnt much of a history on cobbles, it would be natural for at least one team to be targetting this stage as one where they can gain some time on him. I hope Contador loses a lot of time, nothing personal but watching him try to get it back would liven up the race.

 

[Frosty]

French boys on GC. I like Casar and Le Mevel. Voeckler? I don't think so. He should go for a stage win like the previous 3 years. Moncoutie? Cofidis don't have the support to put him up there but KOM is a solid option. Didn't he pick up the KOM in the Vuelta last year? Can the FDJ boys make the top 10. Not without a nice breakaway in the first two weeks. They can top 20 no problem but to challenge for top 10 this year without bonus time from a break would require a miracle for a Frenchman. I shouldn't need to explain why.

Yeah difficult to make a strong case for anyone in the top 10 other than from a breakaway that gains a lot of time. Peraud is perhaps the wildcard, he did ok in Paris-Nice but i have no idea how he will cope with a three week tour or the high mountains. In terms of the younger guys, Brice Feillu (if vancansoleil ride) could perhaps take be in the 10-20 range and Pierre Rolland could too. Moncoutie has taken the last two polka dots in the Vuelta but not done well in the tour at all - he was even talking about not doing it this year although i dont know if this is realistic or not.

 

[Colm.Murphy]

Very early, times are blind guesses past the podium.


1. A. Contador
2. C. Evans +2:30
3. A. Schleck +3:30
4. R. Gesink +4:15
5. S. Sanchez +4:45
6. V. Nibali +6:00
7. A. Kloeden +7:00
8. L. Leipheimer +8:00
9. C. Vandevelde +10:00
10. V. Karpets +11:00

 

[Hotbrakes]

Just like last year, right

It is possible for a small wager on the event? It would be easier than the podium competition.

 

[blaxland]

1st=Contador margin 5mins+
2nd=Schleck
3rd=Kreuziger or Pellizotti
This TDF is Contadors to loose and to win by how much?Every one else is racing for 2nd......................

 

[flicker]

1 Lance Armstrong
2 Bradley Wiggins
3 Andreas Kloeden
4 Popovich
5 Dennis Mechov
6 Sammy Sanchez
7 Andy Schleck
8 Robert Gesink
9 Vinokurov with 2 stage wins
10 Nibali
11 Alberto Contador
12 Pelozoti
Note at finish of Tour Valv-Piti shall be in 5th week of 2 year suspension

 

[auscyclefan94]

I'm hoping for a closer tour... Don't want to have a tour like last year. And what I mean by a close tour is 3 or 4 guys being all able to be up there and fight it out. Am I being greedy asking for that?