100th Ronde Van Vlaanderen - April 3rd, 2016 - 255.9k

[liamito]

Surely Rowe has to be Sky leader over Thomas?

Kwiatkowski, no? Rowe's better suited to Roubaix, it strikes me, and Kwiat's my number one favourite: he's in form, he should have an excellent team behind him (who are racing with a tactical aptitude putting EQS to shame) and De Ronde seems to suit him. I know Thomas wanted to win this race, but I don't think he can, and his illness may well be a blessing in disguise if it means he doesn't demand leadership and instead works for Kwiat. The Lion of Essex could lead, I guess, but he hasn't raced much recently.

Kwiat number one favourite? Kwaremont is really hard for him and Paterberg will sunday also be a climb where you have to ride the cobbles.

 

[kareeem]

Re: Re:

IIRC riders first over the Patersberg have never been caught by the group behind, right?

In 2014, Van Avermaet was caught by Cancellara and Vanmarcke.
https://youtu.be/Fzt9JXT6EFE?t=1h3m15s

True but he basically waited for those three to join him after the downhill section. Anyway, I was thinking more of a bigger group chasing the breakaway rider(s) in last 12 kms after Paterberg. 2012 - Ballan, Pippo, Boonen went on Kwaremont, 2013 - Fabian drops Sagan and soloes to the finish line, 2015 - Kristoff and Terpstra on Kruijsberg. So I guess the answer is yes.

 

[Carols]

Fabu, one more time please! He is looking very strong this spring

 

[Cannibal72]

Surely Rowe has to be Sky leader over Thomas?

Kwiatkowski, no? Rowe's better suited to Roubaix, it strikes me, and Kwiat's my number one favourite: he's in form, he should have an excellent team behind him (who are racing with a tactical aptitude putting EQS to shame) and De Ronde seems to suit him. I know Thomas wanted to win this race, but I don't think he can, and his illness may well be a blessing in disguise if it means he doesn't demand leadership and instead works for Kwiat. The Lion of Essex could lead, I guess, but he hasn't raced much recently.

Kwiat number one favourite? Kwaremont is really hard for him and Paterberg will sunday also be a climb where you have to ride the cobbles.

I partially wrote that out of contrarianism, partially because I really like him, but I think he has more potential on cobbles than most people allow.

 

[PremierAndrew]

For all the talk about Sagan choking before GW, he's been mightily strong on the cobbled climbs - he's looked no weaker than Canc. The difference between Sagan and Canc comes on the flatter sections, where Canc's skills as a rouleur are far superior. But it's going to be difficult for Canc, because although I think he'll be able to do it, I'm not sure he can drop Sagan on a climb right now.

GVA has to be a top favourite for sure as well, he looked mightily strong before his illness, and even when ill on Sunday, he almost bridged to the leaders' group.

In terms of team strength, Sky are looking just as strong as Etixx in terms of numbers, with Stannard, Rowe, Thomas and Kwiat all confirmed to start. Can Thomas or Kwiat match Canc Sagan and GVA on the cobbled climbs though? Thomas has not peaked for RVV, whilst Kwiat, although impressive in E3, attacked on a tarmac climb, and was never really seriously attacked on the cobbles (good luck staying in Canc's wheel up the kwaremont)

***** Cancellara, Sagan
**** GVA
***Kwiat, Stybar, Terpstra, Vanmarcke, Thomas
**Kristoff, Roelandts, Benoot, Stannard, Boonen
*Stuyven, Boom, Trentin, Rowe, EBH, Oss

 

[Mr.White]

Sagan for me. But he has to be really smart this time, he most conserve energy as much as he can.

 

[Jspear]

***** Cancellara, Sagan
**** GVA, Vanmarcke
*** Kristoff, Terpstra, Stybar, Bonoot
** Kwiatkowski, Thomas, Roelandts
* Bonnen, Rowe, Boom, EBH

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

Stannard confirms that him and Rowe will play the role as super-doms for Kwiatkowski and Thomas in Flanders but will lead the team in Roubaix.

"Stannard came home three minutes down on Tuesday's opening stage of the Three Days of De Panne as he felt his way back into action. He will be expected to assume the mantle of leadership for Sky at Paris-Roubaix – "It's more the one that suits me, I guess" – and he will likely set out from Bruges on Sunday in a supporting role at the Tour of Flanders, where E3 Harelbeke winner Michal Kwiatkowski and Paris-Nice winner Geraint Thomas will top the bill for the British team.

"Kwiatkowski showed the other day what he can do on these climbs, which is awesome and gives us more strength. Geraint is coming in too and he really wants to go for Flanders, so we're going to have a good strong team to support those guys," he said. "Luke [Rowe] was up there on Sunday as well, so that bodes well for this weekend.""

What they need now is to replace Fenn or Viviani with Moscon

Moscon is riding along with Golas

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Moscon is riding along with Golas

That's great news. Absolutely deserved.

 

[jsem94]

Etixx will mess up again, might not even make the top 5, it will be embarrassing. Sprint from a small group in the end.

But I could be wrong ofc. Hoping Stybar can show something.

 

[pedromiguelmartins]

Guys, no one can accuse me of being a fanboy, here. RVV and PR are my 2 favorite races and Fabian and Peter are my 2 favorite riders. Having said that...

Sagan was never as strong as he is now. You can say what you want, but I think that I wasn't blind every time I saw Peter a) Matching Fabian in each climb, sometimes the only one doing it; b) Creating the winning move in every race, sometimes leaving Fabian behind; c) Putting the hurt in Cancellara in the last cobbled climb at GW, before matching him on the flat and annihilating him in the final.

Strade was the last race where Sagan was an weaker rider than Cancellara, in my humble opinion. Every misstep in those finals after that were about problems in his head.

 

[Lexman]

Kwiatowski said somewhere that will try RVV but since it's longer and the hills are tougher than in E3 he still prefer the Ardens..

Thomas : he rode especially some small stage races like PN, Catalunya, did he ride this year already on cobbles?

As long as the riders make it a great race I don't mind ho wins.

What about the weather? it seems it will be nice temperature, around 16 degrees C but maybe rainy?

 

[rehy90]

I think it will be a similar race to the 2013 edition, with the final fight between Cancellara and Sagan on the Paterberg. Ettix should try the same thing as last year with Terpstra to have a chance for the win, they have no rider to match Fabian's acceleration in the end of the Paterberg. There are two overwhelming favorites for this race, lets just hope they wont rule themselves out by watching each other.

 

[Bushman]

My biggest concern is that Cancellara and Sagan will cancel each other out and let a weaker rider slip away with the victory. I really would love to see Cancellara one last time blowing the race apart and riding away from everyone. On the other hand I feel Sagan is stronger than ever and his time has come. If one of those two win I'm happy, though I would prefer Cancellara.

Cant really see anyone but GVA and Vanmarcke realistically following them on Kwaremont and Paterberg and I wouldnt be surprised to see Cancellara and Sagan a level above everyone else.

I dont think Cancellara has the explosivity anymore to get rid of Sagan on Paterberg, so he has to ride hard on Kwaremont and then attack again at Paterberg and over the top and hope that the continuous tough efforts will crack Sagan in the end.

Will be a great race.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

My biggest concern is that Cancellara and Sagan will cancel each other out and let a weaker rider slip away with the victory. I really would love to see Cancellara one last time blowing the race apart and riding away from everyone. On the other hand I feel Sagan is stronger than ever and his time has come. If one of those two win I'm happy, though I would prefer Cancellara.

Cant really see anyone but GVA and Vanmarcke realistically following them on Kwaremont and Paterberg and I wouldnt be surprised to see Cancellara and Sagan a level above everyone else.

I dont think Cancellara has the explosivity anymore to get rid of Sagan on Paterberg, so he has to ride hard on Kwaremont and then attack again at Paterberg and over the top and hope that the continuous tough efforts will crack Sagan in the end.

Will be a great race.

I don't really expect this to happen. If they two are in front after the Paterberg they surely wont look at each other, because they know they both have an almost equal chance.
Edit: And on the Kwaremont/Paterberg itself, they will give everything anyway because otherwise you can't distance the majority of the favorites.

 

[sir fly]

Even without Degenkolb this is the most impressive line up in years.
Kristoff's form is encouraging after worrying E3 and GW.

I have my favourites, but, above all, I wish to see a race without mishaps and accidents.

 

[hfer07]

Cancellara to summon his 2010 powers and demolish the competition with no remorse





BTW Etixx QS to screw up the win yet again after having 4 men in the final K

 

[May0maniac]

Heart says Boonen, but I think that it's going to be GVA.

 

[Velolover2]

If it comes down to a sprint (and Kristoff is dropped), I'd back Kwiatkowski.

 

[Gigs_98]

I honestly think Kwiat is overrated. He didnt look really good on the Kwaremont and only was good on paterberg because he could ride on the side of the cobbles.

 

[May0maniac]

The weather should be nice, so Pippo Pozzato could actually do well.

 

[Billie]

Re:

The weather should be nice, so Pippo Pozzato could actually do well.

It's expected to be upto 17°C so weather is as good as it'll get for him. With Beletti and Fedi back to help him he should be a good bet to show something

 

[rghysens]

I'll state the obvious too:

5*) Sagan, Cancellara
4*) GVA, Vanmarcke, Kwiatkowski
3*) Stannard, Thomas, Terpstra, Stybar, Kristoff
2*) Boonen, Benoot, Stuyven, Trentin
1*) Vandenbergh, Rowe, Pozzato, Boom,

 

[liamito]

Re: Re:

The weather should be nice, so Pippo Pozzato could actually do well.

It's expected to be upto 17°C so weather is as good as it'll get for him. With Beletti and Fedi back to help him he should be a good bet to show something

They are both out injured I guess.

 

[portugal11]

I would love to see a attack on koppenberg by sagan or cancellara