100th Ronde Van Vlaanderen - April 3rd, 2016 - 255.9k

[pedromiguelmartins]

No, he is stronger. Not a single rider has been able to match Sagan on those muurs.

Fabian has been beating everybody on TTs and having great performances. It's just that Sagan is better, right now.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Has G's lack of cobbled races this year meant that he is not got a chance?

I think he's got no chance. He never lasted the distance in RVV even when really focusing on the race, so I don't see how that would change now he's lost weight and tried to turn himself into a climber.

Surely after E3, Sky have to back Kwiatkowski as their number one horse; Thomas could certainly be a useful domestique for him.

I think they should attack with Thomas relatively early in the race. But he can't do it all alone. Riding along with a rider like Terpsta or Vanmacke in a break would be perfect for him.

Kwiatkowski who can rely on his fast sprint should be focusing on being in the group of favorites such as Cancellara and Sagan without doing any attacks. He can beat them both in a sprint after a long race.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

No, he is stronger. Not a single rider has been able to match Sagan on those muurs.

Fabian has been beating everybody on TTs and having great performances. It's just that Sagan is better, right now.

Sagan is probably the best in the world on the hellingen when relatively fresh. What is he like on the Kwaremont and Paterberg after 240km and with 2000m+ of explosive, cobbled climbing in his legs. That is the unknown question right now. We know Cancellara will probably remain super strong throughout the race, has Sagan improved enough this year to match his endurance?

 

[tomorrow]

Re: Re:

Sagan to win solo after dropping Fabian on the Patenberg

I can image Sagan dropping Fabian on Patenberg, but Fabian should be able to catch him on the flat ... only to be outsprinted by Sagan at the end.

Actually, though a little bit altered, it could be a really nice tactics from Fabian to beat Sagan. If Fabian feels he can't drop sagan on paterberg, then actually act a little, let sagan to get some small gap, and then pursue him without closing the gap to the point(but still be able to do it whenever he wants), so that Sagan wouldn't have enough time to rest before sprint. Because if Sagan learnt something this sunday, it's that after the pace is easy in the final km, he's able to outsprint fabian. An if he can hold onto him until the last hill, he won't have to work at all the final 3 kms. I think they will have built more than enough gap by that time. Actually, I think it will be clear, than nobody but these two can fight for the win after they climb Paterberg. The only question is, if Sagan is on Fabians wheel there or no.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Has G's lack of cobbled races this year meant that he is not got a chance?

I think he's got no chance. He never lasted the distance in RVV even when really focusing on the race, so I don't see how that would change now he's lost weight and tried to turn himself into a climber.

Surely after E3, Sky have to back Kwiatkowski as their number one horse; Thomas could certainly be a useful domestique for him.

I think they should attack with Thomas relatively early in the race. But he can't do it all alone. Riding along with a rider like Terpsta or Vanmacke in a break would be perfect for him.

Kwiatkowski who can rely on his fast sprint should be focusing on being in the group of favorites such as Cancellara and Sagan without doing any attacks. He can beat them both in a sprint after a long race.

Strong second group (GVA, Kwiatko,Terpstra, Boonen, Thomas ...) after Paterberg will perfectly helps Cance. Duo will have to work perfectly to the end to keep distance and Sagan will probably burn himself. No chance for last km cat mouse game)
I pray to be mistaken again.

 

[King Boonen]

I would love to see someone like Vanmarcke take advantage of the focus on Sagan Vs. Cancellara (and possibly Boonen) or even an unknown, but it doesn't seem likely.

 

[Volderke]

It still seems very likely, like I said, that Vanmarcke is the one that attacks on Kwaremont / Paterberg and drops e.g. Cancellara.
Just re-watch 2014 or 2013 Roubaix or 2016 GW where he had to lead the chase after the wind broke up the peloton into two pieces.

I won't say Vanmarcke will win this, but in this race he can for sure match any accelleration by Sagan / Cancellara and continue his effort until the end.

 

[Txrt]

I would like to see Vanmarcke win thi, I really would.

But I doubt he has enough to drop both Cancellara and Sagan right at this moment, and I don't think he can beat them if they get to the finish together. I believe he'll be with Cancellara until the end, but unfortunately don't see him winning.

 

[robin440]

I hope Kwiatkowski has what it takes to stay with the best up the last hellingen

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I would like to see Vanmarcke win thi, I really would.

But I doubt he has enough to drop both Cancellara and Sagan right at this moment, and I don't think he can beat them if they get to the finish together. I believe he'll be with Cancellara until the end, but unfortunately don't see him winning.

Agree with this. Vanmarcke could easily get to the end in the front group, but he doesn't have the weapon to finish off a race. His TTing / pursuiting isn't good enough to get away from the likes of Canc/Sagan/Kwiatk and he can't outsprint them either. And he is also too well marked and seen as too dangerous to use some clever tactics in the last few km to win solo.

The exception to this may be if somehow Kristoff can make it into the final group after the Paterberg. Then anything could happen, because everyone will try to attack him before the line, and he will struggle to bring back all attacks. Can't see him being there on current form though.

 

[trucido]

Sagan to get 3rd as needs more of them to balance out his podiums.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

I would like to see Vanmarcke win thi, I really would.

But I doubt he has enough to drop both Cancellara and Sagan right at this moment, and I don't think he can beat them if they get to the finish together. I believe he'll be with Cancellara until the end, but unfortunately don't see him winning.

I think Vanmarcke can drop Sagan but not Cancellara. If that's the case it would come down to whether Cancellara is willing to follow his wheel and drag Sagan with him or sit back and risk losing. I'd say if Vanmarcke wants the best chance of that happening he needs to go earlier, possibly the Taaienberg, although I'm unsure if it's steep enough. If he goes on the 2nd Kwaremont/Paterberg, Cancellara and Sagan will be there and Cancellara will drag Sagan to the line rather than let Vanmarcke go. However, if that happens I think Kristoff could also be there which would make the finish interesting.

 

[phanatic]

Re: Re:

Has G's lack of cobbled races this year meant that he is not got a chance?

If by G you mean Geraint Thomas i think he's one of the top five strongest riders, but he has no weapon to finish it. He can't sprint, so he would have to arrive solo. That leaves the question how he can drop Cancellara and co. I think his only chance is if he gets away before the Kwaremont and others think it's too early and start watching each other.

By the way, what do you call the spot where you can find Geraint Thomas?

The podium.

 

[meat puppet]

Anyone but cancellara, sagan or kristoff suits me. yet I think one of them will win. So just hoping a surprise lowkey darkhorse to do well.

However, this is the fifth edition on the new course. And it's still pale in comparison to the one with muur and bosberg, dammit. Yeah the hill combo with kwaremont and paterberg is nice and all, but no match to the suspense of the old finale. Usually route changes do not bother me, but this one seems to do so.

 

[King Boonen]

Kristoff back being a contender...

 

[Akuryo]

I know he will be an outsider but I really hope for Kwiatkowski to take the victory. He showed promise in this race earlier in his carreer and was strong last week at E3. Maybe with a bit of luck he can make one of his attacks stick. He is always entertaining to watch.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Sagan to win solo after dropping Fabian on the Patenberg

I can image Sagan dropping Fabian on Patenberg, but Fabian should be able to catch him on the flat ... only to be outsprinted by Sagan at the end.

Actually, though a little bit altered, it could be a really nice tactics from Fabian to beat Sagan. If Fabian feels he can't drop sagan on paterberg, then actually act a little, let sagan to get some small gap, and then pursue him without closing the gap to the point(but still be able to do it whenever he wants), so that Sagan wouldn't have enough time to rest before sprint. Because if Sagan learnt something this sunday, it's that after the pace is easy in the final km, he's able to outsprint fabian. An if he can hold onto him until the last hill, he won't have to work at all the final 3 kms. I think they will have built more than enough gap by that time. Actually, I think it will be clear, than nobody but these two can fight for the win after they climb Paterberg. The only question is, if Sagan is on Fabians wheel there or no.

I thought about exactly the same
However while your tactic seems to be very risky (Fabian can't know if Sagan doesnt maybe hold something back so he cannot catch him on the final kilometers) I think it would definitely make sense for Sagan, if he is the strongest on the Paterberg, to not try an attack because he would be caught anyway. The difference in TT ability is generally the main reason why I think Fabian is the favorite. I wouldnt even say Cancellara will be the strongest on the climbs, I think Sagan matches him, but if Cancellara drops everyone on the Paterberg its game over, however if Sagan drops Cancellara, he will be caught again, and in a sprint I give them almost equal chances. Don't forget, Cance now knows that he must not let Sagan rest, so he wont make it as easy for him as in Gent-Wevelgem.

 

[DBotero]

Hoping for a Thomas win.I'm curious how will Kristoff perform as he seems to get back into shape just in time.Waiting for EBH to show more than on MSR/GW.

 

[JackRabbitSlims]

On current racing form its very hard to go past the two main favourites.
My heart says Spartacus & my head says Sagan - I'd be happy with either of those two taking the win.

Would love to see Eddy the Boss up there having a crack as well.
Not a fan of GVA at all but surely Kristoff has good from right now and should be a serious contender??

Really looking forward to this race.

 

[ILovecycling]

I voted Ettix just for fun
I want Sagan or VanMarcke ftw, I mean, thatbguy really needs a morale boost

 

[RedheadDane]

Would be rather funny if someone else than Cancellara from Trek took this. So everyone voting 'Trek' will be right, but also wrong because they probably voted Trek with Cancellara in mind.
Not very likely I know. Spartacus would probably need to break his back again for Trek to decide to ride for someone else.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

I have the strange feeling that Cancellara won't be able to win the Ronde, I trust my gut feeling, so if someone is interested in an Avatar bet, please let me know.

You're on!

Cancellara will win RVV. Do you have a certain rider in mind for the win? Or are you just betting on Cancellara losing? Either way I'll take the avatar bet. Loser has avatar of the winners choosing till the Giro?

No, just Cancellara loosing, so if I win you have the avatar that I choose till the start of the Giro, if you win I'll have the avatar that you choose till the end of the Giro, ok?

 

[WheelofGear]

1. Cancellara
2. Sagan
3. Kwiatkowski

 

[Arredondo]

The problem with Eddy is: fine when it's a 1.1 or 1.HC race. But when it's WT, and especially a big classic, the level is too high for him to really fight for the win.

Same story for Flanders next sunday.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

I have the strange feeling that Cancellara won't be able to win the Ronde, I trust my gut feeling, so if someone is interested in an Avatar bet, please let me know.

You're on!

Cancellara will win RVV. Do you have a certain rider in mind for the win? Or are you just betting on Cancellara losing? Either way I'll take the avatar bet. Loser has avatar of the winners choosing till the Giro?

No, just Cancellara loosing, so if I win you have the avatar that I choose till the start of the Giro, if you win I'll have the avatar that you choose till the end of the Giro, ok?

Sure thing! I've got to go find an epic photo.