101st Liège–Bastogne–Liège - 2015 Fourth Monument - 253k

[Panda Claws]

Wish: Gilbert to be back with a vengeance after his crash. Valverde not being in position to respond to his acceleration immediately and he goes solo to the finish.
Reality: Dull edition where Gilbert'll try but someone'll jump on his wheel immediately. Anyone but Gilbert wins the bunch sprint.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: 2015 Fourth Monument: 101st Liège–Bastogne–Liège - 253k

I don't think that the new finish will change much. Its nice that they try to make the race more interesting but last year the problem wasn't that the riders didn't have the chance to attack. the problem was that they weren't brave enough

 

[Flamin]

Can't see any other winner than Valverde or Kwiatek. The only reason for them to not simply cover attacks and sit on, isn't in top shape (Gerrans), so yeah.. And especially Kwiatek has a strong team here with Alaphilippe and Stybar.

Only other scenario is a move from 2nd tier riders that might stick, like Caruso-Pozzovivo last year.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Good to see the revised route, not so far between the last few climbs anymore; also Rosier and Maquisand returning toughens up the route.

I do think that they should have kept Colonster between Roche-aux-Faucons and Saint-Nicolas though - it's a relatively easy climb, sure, but straight off the back of Roche-aux-Faucons it would make it much harder for things to come back together between RAF and SN though as many domestiques and seconds-in-command would be despatched leaving riders fending for themselves for longer.

 

[DFA123]

Could the weather give us a real race?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/be/liege/29306/daily-weather-forecast/29306?day=4

Possible thunderstorms and potentially strong tailwind on the second half of the race. Fingers crossed.

 

[BigMac]

In all seriousness,

Rui Costa will win this.

 

[lemon cheese cake]

Re:

Could the weather give us a real race?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/be/liege/29306/daily-weather-forecast/29306?day=4

Possible thunderstorms and potentially strong tailwind on the second half of the race. Fingers crossed.

Mine are too, looking at that forcast. 50% chance of rain? Bring it on!!

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Could the weather give us a real race?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/be/liege/29306/daily-weather-forecast/29306?day=4

Possible thunderstorms and potentially strong tailwind on the second half of the race. Fingers crossed.

Sounds good as long as it is tailwind and not headwind.

Heavy rain could make the race very exciting. I don't know how Kwiatkowski is in wet weather, but it appears to be Valverde's Achilles heel (and only real weakness).

But such weather conditions could be good for Nibali, Costa, Fuglsang and Purito. A more chaotic and disorganized race like in Gent-Wevelgem would be cool.

 

[rghysens]

Predicted winds are S-SW, so that's tailwind.

 

[Dedelou]

Saxo has not won a single thing since Tinkov was playing havoc with the team management.. Let me wish for a Kreuziger win. To put the jersey on a podium and give something to cheer to Saxo-Tinkov fans

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Saxo has not won a single thing since Tinkov was playing havoc with the team management.. Let me wish for a Kreuziger win. To put the jersey on a podium and give something to cheer to Saxo-Tinkov fans

A podium is not unlikely for Roman K. He appears to be in good shape and Liege Bastogne Liege is technically the race that favours him most. Valgren will be exciting to follow aswell. But long range attacking is required from Tinkoff-Saxo no matter what.

 

[Jspear]

Usually I would have Valverde as the favorite for 2nd but with Kwiatkowski looking a little weak and Martin hurt I'd say he's guaranteed to win.

 

[Bushman]

Re:

Usually I would have Valverde as the favorite for 2nd but with Kwiatkowski looking a little weak and Martin hurt I'd say he's guaranteed to win.

Guaranteed? Nothing is guaranteed in a race like LBL. I have seen way bigger favourites not win races many times before.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Can't see any other winner than Valverde or Kwiatek. The only reason for them to not simply cover attacks and sit on, isn't in top shape (Gerrans), so yeah.. And especially Kwiatek has a strong team here with Alaphilippe and Stybar.

Only other scenario is a move from 2nd tier riders that might stick, like Caruso-Pozzovivo last year.

I don't expect much from Kwiatkowski after wednesday. I think he was a bit lucky to win AGR and is not in the same shape as last year or the shape that won him the worlds.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Don't forget Scarponi. He looked very good in FW and has always delivered in LBL. Astana sure has plenty of weapons to try and tear this race apart, and probably is the only team with the right mindset to do it.

Yes. Scarponi did a great job for Nibali last year in Italian National RR championship. Astana have a strong team at hand and the only way they can win is by tearing the race apart.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Usually I would have Valverde as the favorite for 2nd but with Kwiatkowski looking a little weak and Martin hurt I'd say he's guaranteed to win.

Guaranteed? Nothing is guaranteed in a race like LBL. I have seen way bigger favourites not win races many times before.

Ya you're right guaranteed is a little to much. But let's not kid ourselves; it is highly probable that everyone will ride conservatively, the break will be reeled in, and the favorites will all come to the end together, and in that scenario Valverde is the fav imo. I would love it if things happened differently, I just find it hard to believe that they will.

 

[hrotha]

In that scenario, someone puts in a super late Dan Martin-style attack, everybody stares at Valverde and Valverde stares right back at them.

 

[eljimberino]

Albasini was a demon at Fleche. He has a decent sprint and the team should back him. Even though Gerro is apparently unfit the team should be able to deliver one of their riders into the selection.

 

[Pippo_San]

Nibbles to fly solo from the Redoute.
Winning with 5+ mins on the bunch led home by Balaverde.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

Albasini was a demon at Fleche. He has a decent sprint and the team should back him. Even though Gerro is apparently unfit the team should be able to deliver one of their riders into the selection.

Albasini has often been very good in FW but he has never performed in LBL. He has never even top 50'ed. It's just way too hard for him I guess. OGE will ride for Gerrans and Yates.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Can't see any other winner than Valverde or Kwiatek. The only reason for them to not simply cover attacks and sit on, isn't in top shape (Gerrans), so yeah.. And especially Kwiatek has a strong team here with Alaphilippe and Stybar.

Only other scenario is a move from 2nd tier riders that might stick, like Caruso-Pozzovivo last year.

I don't expect much from Kwiatkowski after wednesday. I think he was a bit lucky to win AGR and is not in the same shape as last year or the shape that won him the worlds.

He might not be, but neither are others. Dan Martin, Purito, Gilbert etc. I still fancy Valverde more though.

 

[Bushman]

Re: Re:

Usually I would have Valverde as the favorite for 2nd but with Kwiatkowski looking a little weak and Martin hurt I'd say he's guaranteed to win.

Guaranteed? Nothing is guaranteed in a race like LBL. I have seen way bigger favourites not win races many times before.

Ya you're right guaranteed is a little to much. But let's not kid ourselves; it is highly probable that everyone will ride conservatively, the break will be reeled in, and the favorites will all come to the end together, and in that scenario Valverde is the fav imo. I would love it if things happened differently, I just find it hard to believe that they will.

Dan Martin looked the strongest before he crashed last year. Also I dont think Kwiat is strong enough this year.

 

[Jagartrott]

Gilbert doubtful for Sunday.
Has knee-problems after his crash Wednesday.

 

[Oliver]

I hope it won't be a sprint and we have a real hard race with attacks in the final, witch will include Astana & AG2R for example, it must be possible no? Nibali/Scarponi/Fuglsang & Pozzovivo/Vuillermoz/Bardet. I'm hoping Nibali or Purito will win.

After his fall I don't think Martin will be good.

 

[Der Effe]

Rolland is gonna surprise some people here