105th Ronde van Vlaanderen: April 4th, 2021

[Spine Concept]

idk, might as well been VdP throwing sand.

Like WvA said, I've rarely seen him ride 2 races in a row where he was absolute dogshit. He might not be Strade Bianchi good anymore. But for sure he will fight for the win

When has Mathieu ever “thrown sand” though. Like he said himself, he’s not one to hide, and his performances in the past fall pretty much in line with that. It’s not like him to “play-act”, if he’s good it shows in the race and he always tries to win.

This narrative that he put on a show at DVV is kinda farfetched imo. I guess we’ll see on Sunday.

 

[Leinster]

I also think Wout is the biggest favourite after having seen Mathieu the last couple of races. And I will put Asgreen second, actually. But with Stybar out it may be a bit more difficult for Deceuninck to play the numbers game.

Are DQS allowed bring in a replacement for Stybar this close to the start? They still have a strong lineup; Asgreen, Lampaert and Senechal were all in the 2nd group sprinting behind the big 2 last year.

 

[tobydawq]

Are DQS allowed bring in a replacement for Stybar this close to the start? They still have a strong lineup; Asgreen, Lampaert and Senechal were all in the 2nd group sprinting behind the big 2 last year.

Yes, of course, they hadn't even announced their team yet.

 

[SafeBet]

When has Mathieu ever “thrown sand” though. Like he said himself, he’s not one to hide, and his performances in the past fall pretty much in line with that. It’s not like him to “play-act”, if he’s good it shows in the race and he always tries to win.

This narrative that he put on a show at DVV is kinda farfetched imo. I guess we’ll see on Sunday.

During the race I said he was bluffing. And I was wrong. He was suffering like a dog.
But you don't go from being arguably the strongest rider in E3 (stronger than Wout) to be pack fodder in DDV because of fatigue. Heat played a role. Or possibly it was just a bad day.

I just don't believe his shape has degraded as much as other people think (based on a single performance). And at the same time it wouldn't surprise me if he's using that performance to downplay his chances a bit.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Are DQS allowed bring in a replacement for Stybar this close to the start? They still have a strong lineup; Asgreen, Lampaert and Senechal were all in the 2nd group sprinting behind the big 2 last year.

Even if the team had been announced with Stybar in it, they would still have two reserves who can take his place.
Ballerini's form was said to be in a downward spiral, so maybe Van Lerberghe will get the chance.

 

[Spine Concept]

During the race I said he was bluffing. And I was wrong. He was suffering like a dog.
But you don't go from being arguably the strongest rider in E3 (stronger than Wout) to be pack fodder in DDV because of fatigue. Heat played a role. Or possibly it was just a bad day.

I just don't believe his shape has degraded as much as other people think (based on a single performance). And at the same time it wouldn't surprise me if he's using that performance to downplay his chances a bit.

I’m not saying he has no chance, I’m just saying that based on GW, DVV and Mathieu’s post-race comments it seems that Wout’s chances have improved drastically as he just seems in fairly better shape.

 

[MartinGT]

My stars. I think it the men's race will be between the Big Three and DQSt as a team - which gives Alaphilippe two chances to win: as a strong individual or as part of a team strategy. The women's race will probably get another Dutch winner.

Men:
****Van Aert, Van der Poel
***Alaphilippe, Asgreen
**Stuyven, Pedersen, Lampaert, Stybar
*Sagan, Matthews, Van Avermaet, Naesen, Van Baarle, Pidcock, Trentin, Küng

Women:
****Van der Breggen, VDB-Blaak
***Vos, Van Vleuten
**Bastianelli, Kopecky, Brown
*Deignan, Longo Borghini, Niewiadoma, Uttrup, D'hoore, Pieters

Men - GVA - It's his year
Women - Kopecky

Belgie double. God bless the Holy Land.

 

[topcat]

Wout will try to hang on for a sprint.
MVP will try to drop everyone and blow up.
Ala will drop everyone, sayonara baby.

 

[topcat]

Other thread: chamber of horrors.

 

[Keram]

If Sagan would have better shape Anyway MVDP and Wout are clear favorites but they dont seems interstellar so it is quite open. My memory is fooling me Ala crashed before last Kwaremont? I dont think it will suit him. But he probably attacked on second to last Kwaremont I really dont remember

 

[tobydawq]

If Sagan would have better shape Anyway MVDP and Wout are clear favorites but they dont seems interstellar so it is quite open. My memory is fooling me Ala crashed before last Kwaremont? I dont think it will suit him. But he probably attacked on second to last Kwaremont I really dont remember

He crashed on the stretch between the Taaienberg and the Kruisberg with around 35 kms to go. He had attacked on the Steenbeekdries before the Taaienberg.

 

[Red Rick]

During the race I said he was bluffing. And I was wrong. He was suffering like a dog.
But you don't go from being arguably the strongest rider in E3 (stronger than Wout) to be pack fodder in DDV because of fatigue. Heat played a role. Or possibly it was just a bad day.

I just don't believe his shape has degraded as much as other people think (based on a single performance). And at the same time it wouldn't surprise me if he's using that performance to downplay his chances a bit.

The main reason for this narrative is simply Van der Poel was hotter in Strade Bianche and in that spectacle stage in Tirreno. So it's easier to think his orm is going down.

 

[Spine Concept]

The main reason for this narrative is simply Van der Poel was hotter in Strade Bianche and in that spectacle stage in Tirreno. So it's easier to think his orm is going down.

His post-race comments pretty much confirm that thought though. Unless he’s milking a bad day of course. Sunday we’ll know enough.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Obviously there's a lot of talk about battle of two Vans but Quick-Step's strength will be a big factor. Can they pull a Devolder tomorrow? Asgreen would love it.

 

[tomorrow]

Well, actually, being so clear favourite might not go so well for WVA. There are multiple teams, actually more than usual, with ability to strike from distance. Quickstep obviously with whomever you choose from their squad, ag2r with naesen and GVA, bora with Politt and Sagan. It will be very difficult to cover it all by JV to cover it from kapelmuur to taaienberg and for WVA from there.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I’ll believe that MVDP is off the boil when and if I see him crack and not a moment before. Same would go for WVA if he’d sucked at some warm up race and started hamming up his tiredness. Those guys are freaks.

 

[KZD]

Van Aert is the biggest favourite for me but Deceuninck looks like the team with a higher chance of winning the race.
Sagan will probably use Kristoff's strategy and wait for a regrouping and a sprint in a reduced group.

 

[Velolover2]

It's hard to tell how good Alaphillipe is at this moment. But he would benefit from having Asgreen, Senechal and/or Lampaert in an earlier move.

Free ride on the flats and hanging on to WVA on the climbs.

 

[tomorrow]

Van Aert is the biggest favourite for me but Deceuninck looks like the team with a higher chance of winning the race.
Sagan will probably use Kristoff's strategy and wait for a regrouping and a sprint in a reduced group.

Are you sure that's Kristoff's strategy for Flanders. Didn't he attack quite soon, I think somewhere around Kruisberg only to be caught by Terpstra who could get rid of him neither on Kwaaremont nor on Patterberg and towed him to the finish line? Because if you mean this one, than it is very similar to what might actually work for him this year.

 

[Spine Concept]

Obviously there's a lot of talk about battle of two Vans but Quick-Step's strength will be a big factor. Can they pull a Devolder tomorrow? Asgreen would love it.

It ought to, but as GW and DVV have shown, they can also totally bomb.

 

[Red Rick]

I also think Wout is the biggest favourite after having seen Mathieu the last couple of races. And I will put Asgreen second, actually. But with Stybar out it may be a bit more difficult for Deceuninck to play the numbers game.

I don't see it.

He could win, but 2nd favorite?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I also think Wout is the biggest favourite after having seen Mathieu the last couple of races. And I will put Asgreen second, actually. But with Stybar out it may be a bit more difficult for Deceuninck to play the numbers game.

I think they should do well enough playing the numbers game, deep into the final. Sénéchal, Alaphilippe, Asgreen, Lampaert, Ballerini... none of those are guys you'd be happy to see in a leading group. Let alone two or three of them, while Alaphilippe is in your wheel. Obviously, with Styby there, they'd be an even bigger force, but still.

I don't know if Asgreen is 2nd favorite, but from what i've seen the past two weeks, i'd put him alongside van der Poel and Alaphilippe. He's actually impressed me more, but on the other hand, winning isn't second nature to him.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The race will finish in Oudenaarde for the tenth time. I was sceptical when they changed it, but the new course (with the more recent improvements) has proved to work well.

We can expect a traditional early break with enthusiastic riders who can't win, but who want to show the shirt colors of the smaller teams.

The first important zone comes at 95 to 70 km before the finish, starting with the Berendries. Especially the Kanarieberg is a chance to make a first selection. It comes too early for an individual attack, but you have to be in the first rows of the bunch already. DQSt will probably try to thin the group down and be well represented in numbers. After that they might let someone attack on the flat, e.g. Sénéchal, to put the other teams under pressure.

After 15 km of flat they reach the toughest part of the race: 55 to 37 km from the finish, a swift succession of climbs and cobbles from the second Kwaremont to the Taaienberg. For a strong collective it's the ideal zone to isolate some of their opponents. A favorite with an aggresive attitude can launch an attack here already.

Then comes the tactical part: 20 km with only one climb. A team with more than one iron left in the fire can send their second man up the road here, and block the attempts at an organized pursuit. It's really dangerous to let anyone go here.

Then come the final two climbs. The strongest individual can decide the race here - if he's still in a position to win. Someone who's strong enough to drop the others usually has enough left in the tank to continue solo to the finish, because everyone is tired at this point. If there's still a group together nerves and tactics will be decisive, with a late attack or a strong sprint.

Then it's time for the post-race analysis, when everyone who's not in the winning team can come up with a good excuse and commentators explain what he should have done instead.

 

[Red Rick]

Are you sure that's Kristoff's strategy for Flanders. Didn't he attack quite soon, I think somewhere around Kruisberg only to be caught by Terpstra who could get rid of him neither on Kwaaremont nor on Patterberg and towed him to the finish line? Because if you mean this one, than it is very similar to what might actually work for him this year.

There has been 1 year that Kristoff didn't win the sprint from the 2nd group and that was when he won the sprint for the win.

Sprinting vs Kristoff is a losing proposition for all of them.

 

[tomorrow]

There has been 1 year that Kristoff didn't win the sprint from the 2nd group and that was when he won the sprint for the win.

Sprinting vs Kristoff is a losing proposition for all of them.

I either lost in your post or I don't understand. The only year when Kristoff won Tour of Flanders was in 2015, that was when he was in leading duo with Terpstra and GvA and Sagan duo was chasing them.

Maybe you mean Kristoff's MSR win?