107th Milano - Sanremo, 19th March 2016, 291 km, WT

[StryderHells]

Re:

My thoughts on who the favourites are- I hope Matthews can win.

***** Kristoff and Sagan. Kristoff should be up there and has the endurance needed to win, while Sagan has so many options available to him. He looks very strong too.
****.5 Cancellara and Matthews. They can both win from a sprint or small group, with Cancellara having the option of soloing as well. Both will have very strong teams too.
****Bouhanni, GVA and EBH. All have won this year and all are on good form.
***Here's where i'll just start to list heaps of riders. Bakelants, Clarke, Lutsenko, Colbrelli, Stybar, Brambilla, Gaviria, Cavendish, Modolo, Ulissi, Wellens, Gallopin, Debusschere, Bonifazio, Nizzolo, Kwiatowski and Swift.
** Gavazzi, Nibali, Gatto, Oss, Bennet, Navardauskas, Cummings, Trentin, Boonen, Simon, Demare, Vichot, Howard, Valverde, Lobato, Impey, Haller, Arndt, Geschke, Fedi, Vanmarcke, Thomas, Puccio, Kennaugh, Viviani and Felline.

I'm hoping teams like Cannondale and Lotto can animate the races over the closing 40km's, although they are not as strong as teams like BMC or Tinkoff in terms of whitling down the peleton for a leader they should just attack so as to have a chance at winning.

I don't think you picked enough riders in with a chance

 

[DFA123]

I wont know if I should cry or laugh if after all this discussions about riders attacking on the poggio the race will turn out to be completely boring and a rider like cav wins
But seriously, I hope you guys arent all too optimistic

To be honest, even someone making an attack stick on the Poggio won't make this a really exciting race. It's what? 6km from the finish. So there will be 285km and over 6 hours of very little until then.

I want to see at least a meaningful effort from a contender on the Cipressa.

 

[classicomano]

Re: Re:

I don't think you picked enough riders in with a chance

No kidding, where is Betancur in that list?

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

He's not confirmed to start. Besides, he has very little chance of being on the podium on this parcours. Top 15, likely.

Strange. I think he said multiple times he would do MSR. Is he doubting about his own form?

Who knows, but this is irrelevant. This course doesn't suit him period. Good form or bad form he isn't going to win this race.

But why bothering starting? He could do Catalunya, and potentially winning it, instead of riding a race he will not win anyway.

He'll race Dwars and E3 so he can't race Catalunya.

Seems like Valverde will be starting MSR cause he was out training with the MSR squad today

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

He'll race Dwars and E3 so he can't race Catalunya.

Seems like Valverde will be starting MSR cause he was out training with the MSR squad today

I think he's made the correct decision. Winning a stage or two in Catalunya - or even the overall GC - wouldn't add much to his palmares. Experiencing new races and testing himself on the cobbles is much more interesting. I wish more riders would try to diversify; it's a bit shameful that the likes of Contador, Froome and Quintana don't even bother trying in the Ardennes these days.

 

[DBotero]

Re: Re:

He'll race Dwars and E3 so he can't race Catalunya.

Seems like Valverde will be starting MSR cause he was out training with the MSR squad today

I think he's made the correct decision. Winning a stage or two in Catalunya - or even the overall GC - wouldn't add much to his palmares. Experiencing new races and testing himself on the cobbles is much more interesting. I wish more riders would try to diversify; it's a bit shameful that the likes of Contador, Froome and Quintana don't even bother trying in the Ardennes these days.

I don't like Valverde new approach but hopefully that gold medal is waiting for him,no mater his chosen schedule.
Froome actually started the Ardennes classics many times.Of course his results are pretty bad so why would he bother.Expect to see him riding Roubaix more likely in the future as it's stated as his favorite race

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Looking forward to actually watching on a TV now I have Chromecast - woohooo

Matthews FTW

Just cant see anyone else winning. . . . . ???

 

[Marco Pantani]

There seem to be more favourites each year.

So hard to get this one right. I think it will be one of Cancellara, Sagan and Gaviria.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

Looking forward to actually watching on a TV now I have Chromecast - woohooo

Matthews FTW

Just cant see anyone else winning. . . . . ???

How did you arrive at that conclusion, I must ask ?

 

[Fight.The.Power]

Re: Re:

Looking forward to actually watching on a TV now I have Chromecast - woohooo

Matthews FTW

Just cant see anyone else winning. . . . . ???

How did you arrive at that conclusion, I must ask ?

Hi Cance

Well there are lots of folk who are either not on form or have just not shown anything so far. I agree that Cancellera (who I suspect you are favouring) will podium but just wont beat Matthews in a sprint which it surely will be giving weather conditions of glorious sunshine

 

[classicomano]

Matthews will glue himself to the right wheel and come out in the last few meters. Just like his fellow Ozzies did to win MSR.

 

[del1962]

I think one of the unknowns in this race is Kritoff's form, he didn't really seem strong in P-N failing to win a stage and looking well off his form over the last two seasons, if it does come down to a sprint I see others like Bouhanni being better than him,

 

[Kwibus]

Re:

Matthews will glue himself to the right wheel and come out in the last few meters. Just like his fellow Ozzies did to win MSR.

Matthews has the ability to follow any attack and then sit on the wheel.
The chance that an attack succeeds is so small. Only sagan, cance and gva when they attack could work together. If for example Stybar or EBH manage to follow then they will sit on their wheels saying they got a sprinter waiting behind them.

The only way I can see no sprint is if a team like Astana or another really strong team pulls really hard on the Turchino (very unlikely) or go full throttle up the cipressa putting max. Pressure on the sprinters. This won't get rid of riders like Matthews.
Thing is I havent seen this happening in a long while. Sure they ride up in a decent pace, but it's usually a controlled pace by a sprintersteam and then some climber makes a useless attack.
The Cipressa must raced brutally hard. No other choice.
Same for the Poggio ofcourse, from the bottom a team of an attacker must really crush the climb as fast as possible. Don't let the sprinter teams control it.

 

[jaylew]

I'm also predicting Matthews for the win.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Matthews will glue himself to the right wheel and come out in the last few meters. Just like his fellow Ozzies did to win MSR.

Matthews has the ability to follow any attack and then sit on the wheel.
The chance that an attack succeeds is so small. Only sagan, cance and gva when they attack could work together. If for example Stybar or EBH manage to follow then they will sit on their wheels saying they got a sprinter waiting behind them.

The only way I can see no sprint is if a team like Astana or another really strong team pulls really hard on the Turchino (very unlikely) or go full throttle up the cipressa putting max. Pressure on the sprinters. This won't get rid of riders like Matthews.
Thing is I havent seen this happening in a long while. Sure they ride up in a decent pace, but it's usually a controlled pace by a sprintersteam and then some climber makes a useless attack.
The Cipressa must raced brutally hard. No other choice.
Same for the Poggio ofcourse, from the bottom a team of an attacker must really crush the climb as fast as possible. Don't let the sprinter teams control it.

In that scenario, someone under the radar could get away on the Poggio and stay away. Especially if Kristoff has been dropped by then, Canc, Sagan, Matthews, GVA etc.. might all mark each other. The onus would probably be on Orica to chase - as Matthews is nominally the finisher - but they won't.

A decent descender like Kwiatkowski or Nibali could take it.

 

[42x16ss]

I can see Matthews, GVA, EBH, Sagan or even Stybar winning a race like the version Goss won in 2011, with a very similar ride. Cance will be anxious to get another big classic and will probably be aggressive and split the group with the help of others like Nibali.

The form of the riders I mentioned should be good enough for at least one of them to be able to stay with any attacks.

 

[Tank Engine]

Astana will definitely try to light it up. However, I can't see that they will be able to break it up on this course. Bling, Sagan and Spartacus are the most likely to gain from a hard race. I'll go with Bling. TGAK might have a chance normally, but he will miss Paolini.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

Matthews will glue himself to the right wheel and come out in the last few meters. Just like his fellow Ozzies did to win MSR.

And that's how it's usually done in MSR. The best way. Remember Freire, Zabel...

 

[postmanhat]

Cannondale's only real hope is an attack on or before the Cipressa you'd think? Should help liven things up a bit as well

 

[Kwibus]

But really is Le Manie still not safe? Why isn't it back yet?
No pompeiana? Sure I understand that, but Le Manie was far from the finish, but did make the race harder... More of a lottery between sprinters and attackers.
Now it's most of all for the sprinters with a tiny chance for the the attackers.

 

[staubsauger]

If one has got the quality to attack on Poggio without being marked and the sheer power to stay away it's Pete Kennaugh.

He's gonna get wasted as a domestique without any need though.

 

[arvc40]

Steve Cummings FTW.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

If one has got the quality to attack on Poggio without being marked and the sheer power to stay away it's Pete Kennaugh.

He's gonna get wasted as a domestique without any need though.

You could say the same about Lutsenko, but he could be a marked man.
Edit: I just saw that he's no longer on the startlist.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re: Re:

He'll race Dwars and E3 so he can't race Catalunya.

Seems like Valverde will be starting MSR cause he was out training with the MSR squad today

I think he's made the correct decision. Winning a stage or two in Catalunya - or even the overall GC - wouldn't add much to his palmares. Experiencing new races and testing himself on the cobbles is much more interesting. I wish more riders would try to diversify; it's a bit shameful that the likes of Contador, Froome and Quintana don't even bother trying in the Ardennes these days.

I don't like Valverde new approach but hopefully that gold medal is waiting for him,no mater his chosen schedule.
Froome actually started the Ardennes classics many times.Of course his results are pretty bad so why would he bother.Expect to see him riding Roubaix more likely in the future as it's stated as his favorite race

What is behind Valverde's new approach? Did he get a taste for the cobbles last year? I can't find any interviews with him about it.

 

[greenedge]

Re:

If one has got the quality to attack on Poggio without being marked and the sheer power to stay away it's Pete Kennaugh.

He's gonna get wasted as a domestique without any need though.

I agree, his wins in Australia were very impressive (albeit with less WT teams).