107th Milano - Sanremo, 19th March 2016, 291 km, WT

[The Barb]

Re: Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

No way, Martin is passed his prime.

Are you for real or trolling?

 

[robin440]

Re: Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

No way, Martin is passed his prime.

Are you for real or trolling?

Definitely trolling

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

No way, Martin is passed his prime.

Are you for real or trolling?

Don't knw if he is past his prime, but last season and this season he isn't dominating ITT's as before

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

same reason Canc stopped dominating ITT's: it's boring as ***.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Re: Re:

(...) but I'm pretty sure Cavendish will have problems on the Cipressa and the Poggio and especially since he generally hasn't been that good this year I don't expect anything from him.

Don't know if you noticed, but he already won a world champions jersey this year. But he indeed did not prepare for the sanremo hills this season: I would be very surprised if he sprints for the first place.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

Agreed.

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

Cav himself is playing down his chances, saying EBH will likely lead the team. And he's only been in the front group once 2009.

As I said in a later post, I'm not saying either of them is going to win it, I'm just saying that it's crazy to rate Gaviria above Cav in this race considering the distance and how hard fought it's going to be. He's a complete unknown in this kind of competition and picking him over a past winner who can still beat the best sprinters in the world on his day is crazy. Gaviria looks like a future winner and possibly a future dominant sprinter (although Caleb Ewan might have something to say on that) but this is Milano-Sanremo. It's Fabians last go at it. Sagan wants a Monument. Thomas, Kwiatkowski, GVA, Boom, EBH, Valverde (if he rides) and plenty others are going to want to make it very hard over the Poggio. All this is likely to see a novice sprinter fired out the back of the group.

 

[Alexandre B.]

Cannondale : Breschel, Clarke, Koren, Langeveld, Moser, Navardauskas, Slagter, van Baarle.

Trek-Segafredo : Alafaci, Cancellara, Nizzolo, Bonifazio, Felline, Rast, Popovych, Coledan.

 

[Fernandez]

Re: Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

Well, first of all I think he'll ride this for sure, and second he has a chance, although not much. If a small group (10 riders max) arrives at the finish I think he has a shot. I think his form is good, not excellent, but good. If there are splits at the Poggio he'll be in the front group, that's for sure, and after that.., well everything is possible. He's no slower than GVA, Cancellara or Kwiatkowski, on the contrary...

Knowing Alejandro, he will miss that split for whatever reason.

 

[cellardoor]

It seems to me that most of the top-tier sprinters are not in particularly good form or at least their form is suspect. I'd like to see Sagan win to make up for all the second places, but it just doesn't seem logical for him to win as he tends to lose sprints from small groups at the end of a hard race. He'd have to go solo to win I think. I think Matthews is the obvious choice, he seems in great form and there has been a pattern of recent editions tending to be won by that type of rider (2nd tier sprinter who handles the lumpy stuff well). I'd much rather see Cancellara, Sagan or Nibali win, but i just can't see it being hard enough.

 

[May0maniac]

Mighty Lutsenko will win by attacking on the Poggio.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

Agreed.

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

Cav himself is playing down his chances, saying EBH will likely lead the team. And he's only been in the front group once 2009.

As I said in a later post, I'm not saying either of them is going to win it, I'm just saying that it's crazy to rate Gaviria above Cav in this race considering the distance and how hard fought it's going to be. He's a complete unknown in this kind of competition and picking him over a past winner who can still beat the best sprinters in the world on his day is crazy. Gaviria looks like a future winner and possibly a future dominant sprinter (although Caleb Ewan might have something to say on that) but this is Milano-Sanremo. It's Fabians last go at it. Sagan wants a Monument. Thomas, Kwiatkowski, GVA, Boom, EBH, Valverde (if he rides) and plenty others are going to want to make it very hard over the Poggio. All this is likely to see a novice sprinter fired out the back of the group.

I would say that is the precise reason to pick Gaviria over Cavendish. Cav has shown in the last five years that he can't get over the final climb in a decent position. If he does hang on to the group, he's generally at the back and has to use up too much energy to get into a decent position, and then lacks power for the sprint.

Gaviria, meanwhile is an unknown quantity. He might really struggle, or he might not - we really don't know at this stage. It could turn out being the perfect race for him - the unknown factor makes him a more likely winner imo. With Cav, on the other hand, we know it is touch and go if he will make it in the lead group over the Poggio and, if he does, we know that he we really struggle to be in a position to sprint and challenge the likes of Kristoff.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

same reason Canc stopped dominating ITT's: it's boring as ****.

Yeah but Canc had classics to target, Martin has what? Twitter..?

 

[Breh]

Hes riding some classics this year. Cancellara has been in outstanding form this year which kinda explains the defeats in Algarve and Tirreno. Both very short time trials aswell. 2015 has not been uo to standards when it comes to TT'ing but there is no reason to believe he can't deliver like before.

 

[SafeBet]

Valverde is confirmed.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

Re: Re:

same reason Canc stopped dominating ITT's: it's boring as ****.

Yeah but Canc had classics to target, Martin has what? Twitter..?

which is why he is trying to transform into a classics rider. Meaning less focus on ITT training, more on explosivity.

 

[Pentacycle]

Re: Re:

same reason Canc stopped dominating ITT's: it's boring as ****.

Yeah but Canc had classics to target, Martin has what? Twitter..?

which is why he is trying to transform into a classics rider. Meaning less focus on ITT training, more on explosivity.

I still don't get that. Martin just isn't that type of rider. He has an amazing engine for rides around or under 200k, but he's never done anything above. And now that his training is aimed at this transformation to longer distances, his explosivity and TT only seem worse.

 

[TourOfTexas]

Etixx backing Gaviria. He can't race that far. He dropped out of the breakaway before the finish in T-A.

 

[carolina]

Re: Re:

same reason Canc stopped dominating ITT's: it's boring as ****.

Yeah but Canc had classics to target, Martin has what? Twitter..?

in the last 2-3 years he won several stages that weren't time trials. I wouldn't say he passed his prime, he's just changing his focus.

 

[Vroome.exe]

Etixx backing Gaviria. He can't race that far. He dropped out of the breakaway before the finish in T-A.

Maybe thats because they raced flat out over the hills in small group? Even trentin was dropped who has amazing stamina.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

Agreed.

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

Cav himself is playing down his chances, saying EBH will likely lead the team. And he's only been in the front group once 2009.

As I said in a later post, I'm not saying either of them is going to win it, I'm just saying that it's crazy to rate Gaviria above Cav in this race considering the distance and how hard fought it's going to be. He's a complete unknown in this kind of competition and picking him over a past winner who can still beat the best sprinters in the world on his day is crazy. Gaviria looks like a future winner and possibly a future dominant sprinter (although Caleb Ewan might have something to say on that) but this is Milano-Sanremo. It's Fabians last go at it. Sagan wants a Monument. Thomas, Kwiatkowski, GVA, Boom, EBH, Valverde (if he rides) and plenty others are going to want to make it very hard over the Poggio. All this is likely to see a novice sprinter fired out the back of the group.

I hear what you're saying but I absolutely disagree. I hope you're right and we get a hard race that drops some of the sprinters. That said, anything that drops Gav is also going to drop Cav and I believe Cav would be dropped first. The fact that he himself doesn't like his chances and is prepared to work for EBH tells me he has very little chance. Who knows, maybe the distance will prove too long, but special riders defy conventional wisdom all the time and I believe Gaviria is a special rider.

In any case, your assertion that "this place is crazy" for giving Gav a better shot at winning doesn't hold water. Have you taken a look at any betting odds? Gav is generally around 10-1 while Cav is at 25-1

 

[Brullnux]

As someone has already said, it's not the Poggio at high pace that Gaviria is likely to struggle on. He can get over that fine. It's the Poggio after 280km that Gaviria is likely to struggle on.

However, I do not know if Gaviria has the stamina or not. The fact he has never does this plays two ways: we can assume he'll be dropped, or he could be amazing for all we know.

 

[KyoGrey]

I do not intend to be cruel, but the talk should be about the moves that classics riders such as Cance, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar etc are going to make in order to avoid Kristoff or Matthews winning the sprint.

Gaviria is too young. He doesnt have fondo.

 

[May0maniac]

The startlist:
http://www.milanosanremo.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Iscritti-MISA16-al-13-3.pdf

 

[SafeBet]

I do not intend to be cruel, but the talk should be about the moves that classics riders such as Cance, Sagan, Van Avermaet, Stybar etc are going to make in order to avoid Kristoff or Matthews winning the sprint.

Gaviria is too young. He doesnt have fondo.

Bonifazio was 5th in his first MSR. He was as old as Gaviria is now.

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

The startlist:
http://www.milanosanremo.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Iscritti-MISA16-al-13-3.pdf

It's not updated. Dumoulin still in despite confirming earlier on Twitter that he's too sick to ride it. There are other mistakes too (Betancur, Brambilla missing).