107th Milano - Sanremo, 19th March 2016, 291 km, WT

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

I actually think Gaviria has a better chance to finish with the peloton than Cav. I don't know if Gaviria is good on routes like this but I'm pretty sure Cavendish will have problems on the Cipressa and the Poggio and especially since he generally hasn't been that good this year I don't expect anything from him.

I don't think either of them are going to compete, but MSR is the longest race on the calendar, highly contested and, to me, picking a relative novice over a past winner who is still capable of competing is just crazy. I'd pick Cav to be the one there at the end if either of them is and if they are both there I'd still opt for Cav to finish higher.

Gaviria has won what, 7 races and really only one anyone might care about? He looks good sure, but he's certainly not a better pick in MSR than Cav yet.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

Hopefully for him the weather is nice.

If anything, a wet descent from the poggio would increase his chances massively if he does indeed attack

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

I actually think Gaviria has a better chance to finish with the peloton than Cav. I don't know if Gaviria is good on routes like this but I'm pretty sure Cavendish will have problems on the Cipressa and the Poggio and especially since he generally hasn't been that good this year I don't expect anything from him.

I don't think either of them are going to compete, but MSR is the longest race on the calendar, highly contested and, to me, picking a relative novice over a past winner who is still capable of competing is just crazy. I'd pick Cav to be the one there at the end if either of them is and if they are both there I'd still opt for Cav to finish higher.

Gaviria has won what, 7 races and really only one anyone might care about? He looks good sure, but he's certainly not a better pick in MSR than Cav yet.

Gaviria can definitely handle the hills, but even sitting in a bunch, 300k is really energy sapping, and he has no record whatsoever of handling distance yet

 

[Kwibus]

Re: Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

Hopefully for him the weather is nice.

It will most likely be nice. If there is a drop of water he will probably want the race to be cancelled.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

Hopefully for him the weather is nice.

It will most likely be nice. If there is a drop of water he will probably want the race to be cancelled.

Nah, the weather forecast is good and if they will cancel the race it will already be done one day earlier, so its rather unlikely.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

Agreed.

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

Cav himself is playing down his chances, saying EBH will likely lead the team. And he's only been in the front group once 2009.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Rebillin to go for it on the Poggio
just like 2000
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8aky_6k7QJI attack at 4m40s

 

[Arredondo]

Just give Gaviria some time. If he's there, he's there. But if he's dropped, so be it.

In 3 years time he will win it. But now?

 

[Arredondo]

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

He's not confirmed to start. Besides, he has very little chance of being on the podium on this parcours. Top 15, likely.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

Agreed.

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

Cav himself is playing down his chances, saying EBH will likely lead the team. And he's only been in the front group once 2009.

2014 too.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

He's not confirmed to start. Besides, he has very little chance of being on the podium on this parcours. Top 15, likely.

Strange. I think he said multiple times he would do MSR. Is he doubting about his own form?

 

[rghysens]

Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

If he participates (he isn't on the startlist).

Anyway, my predictions:

BMC, Tinkoff and Astana to drill it on the Cipressa, a group of +/- 40 survives, they storm to the Poggio, Nibali attacks and then it becomes quite hazy in my cristal ball.

Favourites:
5*: Cancellara, Matthews
4*: Kristoff, Sagan, GVA
3*: Bouhanni, Stybar, Kwiatkowski, Colbrelli
2*: Vanmarcke, Swift, Nibali, EBH, Thomas, Modolo
1*: Bennati, Bakelants, Trentin, Gallopin, Wellens, Démare

 

[Arredondo]

Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

No way, Martin is passed his prime.

 

[SafeBet]

Today Valverde was on the Dolomites for a recon of the Giro 14th stage. I presume he's headed to Milano tomorrow and will race MSR but not a sure thing.

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

Agreed.

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

Cav himself is playing down his chances, saying EBH will likely lead the team. And he's only been in the front group once 2009.

2014 too.

Oops, that was supposed to say "once since 2009."

 

[Brullnux]

That is one fun Astana team. I'm hoping for a crazy, crazy last 30km.

 

[DBotero]

Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

I don't think he'll ride.If he does i don't expect anything special.Anyway he was having fun today:

 

[robin440]

what the **** is wrong with german eurosport, instead of san remo they show women soccer and on eurosport 2 skijumping? is that a joke?

 

[afpm90]

Movistar maybe will work for Lobato, although he doesn't seem to be in great shape.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

He's not confirmed to start. Besides, he has very little chance of being on the podium on this parcours. Top 15, likely.

Strange. I think he said multiple times he would do MSR. Is he doubting about his own form?

Who knows, but this is irrelevant. This course doesn't suit him period. Good form or bad form he isn't going to win this race.

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

He's not confirmed to start. Besides, he has very little chance of being on the podium on this parcours. Top 15, likely.

Strange. I think he said multiple times he would do MSR. Is he doubting about his own form?

Who knows, but this is irrelevant. This course doesn't suit him period. Good form or bad form he isn't going to win this race.

But why bothering starting? He could do Catalunya, and potentially winning it, instead of riding a race he will not win anyway.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

Well, first of all I think he'll ride this for sure, and second he has a chance, although not much. If a small group (10 riders max) arrives at the finish I think he has a shot. I think his form is good, not excellent, but good. If there are splits at the Poggio he'll be in the front group, that's for sure, and after that.., well everything is possible. He's no slower than GVA, Cancellara or Kwiatkowski, on the contrary...

 

[jaylew]

Re: Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

He's not confirmed to start. Besides, he has very little chance of being on the podium on this parcours. Top 15, likely.

Strange. I think he said multiple times he would do MSR. Is he doubting about his own form?

Who knows, but this is irrelevant. This course doesn't suit him period. Good form or bad form he isn't going to win this race.

But why bothering starting? He could do Catalunya, and potentially winning it, instead of riding a race he will not win anyway.

Just part of the 2016 plan. More one days, and fewer stage races. With his heavy schedule, they're trying to cut his race days down in the early part of the season. Besides, he's got Dwars and E3 as prep for Flanders and they conflict with Catalunya.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

For the Valverde fans (Mr. White and Valv.Piti), what do you think of Bala's chances? Confident in a good result?

He's not being mentioned at all on this forum and other sites.

Well, first of all I think he'll ride this for sure, and second he has a chance, although not much. If a small group (10 riders max) arrives at the finish I think he has a shot. I think his form is good, not excellent, but good. If there are splits at the Poggio he'll be in the front group, that's for sure, and after that.., well everything is possible. He's no slower than GVA, Cancellara or Kwiatkowski, on the contrary...

I'd be delighted if Valverde could win here, but I don't think he's got any chance in a sprint against GVA or Canc on current form. Tbh, can't see any way that he can win, but you never know with Bala!