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107th Milano - Sanremo, 19th March 2016, 291 km, WT

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Bad parcours. There's a reason Nibali isn't riding. A bunch sprint finish is almost guaranteed.

Edit: I guess it's not confirmed he's not riding, although he doesn't want to as there's really no point with the current parcours:
“We all know it doesn’t suit me. It’s suited to the sprinters and Classics rider but I’ve often ridden and tried to attack on the Poggio,” he argued. “If Vegni put La Manie back in then maybe I’d think about it. Maybe the team will decide I have to ride it and so I would but if it remains the same course, there not much point in me riding it.
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
SafeBet said:
There aren't many strong teams interested in a sprint. Katusha is clearly weaker than the past two years without Paolini and Cofidis is not built to control a race of this caliber. Etixx could probably do it but I don't see them putting all the eggs in one basket. Orica will have to work a lot.

Despite the probable good weather and the absence of Le Manie, I think it's a good year for an attacker.

They won't though. They'll just tell Matthews to follow someone like Sagan or Cancellara whenever they attack - like he was told to do with Gilbert at Amstel Gold last year. He almost certainly wouldn't beat Kristoff or Bouhanni anyway if it came to a bunch sprint.
He beat Bouhanni here last year, why couldn't he this year?
 
Re: Re:

greenedge said:
DFA123 said:
SafeBet said:
There aren't many strong teams interested in a sprint. Katusha is clearly weaker than the past two years without Paolini and Cofidis is not built to control a race of this caliber. Etixx could probably do it but I don't see them putting all the eggs in one basket. Orica will have to work a lot.

Despite the probable good weather and the absence of Le Manie, I think it's a good year for an attacker.

They won't though. They'll just tell Matthews to follow someone like Sagan or Cancellara whenever they attack - like he was told to do with Gilbert at Amstel Gold last year. He almost certainly wouldn't beat Kristoff or Bouhanni anyway if it came to a bunch sprint.
He beat Bouhanni here last year, why couldn't he this year?
Because Bouhanni is on much better form this year.
 
Re: Re:

Mr.White said:
mr. tibbs said:
DFA123 said:
They won't though. They'll just tell Matthews to follow someone like Sagan or Cancellara whenever they attack - like he was told to do with Gilbert at Amstel Gold last year. He almost certainly wouldn't beat Kristoff or Bouhanni anyway if it came to a bunch sprint.

Etixx will be the key to whether or not a bunch finish is likely. I guess it depends whether or not they believe Stybar has more chance of winning from a small group, or Gaviria from a bunch sprint. Not an easy decision to make though.

I'd love it if a Matthews/Sagan/Van Avermaet move stuck over the Poggio.

But surely Katusha will be the "hold it all together" team, not Quick Step.

Good luck with that without Paolini...

I think they can still do that, Haller and Morkov are two strong riders with good experience and Bystrom is proving to be a very strong rider who could fill Paolini's cleats. He probably won't have the strength to reel back in an attack by Cancellara and Sagan etc though.
 
Kristoff didn't look that strong in the Paris-Nice sprints, but I expect he'll find his legs. Not sure if he'll win. Matthews, Bouhanni, Sagan, GVA, Canc and maybe even Bonifazio will do their best to prevent him. EBH might be good too. Don't think Gaviria has the legs just yet.
 
To state the obvious, GVA, Sagan, Matthews and Canc all have amazing form at the moment. At that distance you could throw a blanket over them if they're in a sprint - just depends on who has anything left in the legs at the end. You would never say this 4 years ago, but I reckon Canc could just about see the others off, and Sagan could just about be 4th.

MSR often throws in a complete surprise. Who's gonna be the Goss/Ciolek 2nd or 3rd tier sprinter who either gets bloody close or wins?
 
Re:

The Hegelian said:
To state the obvious, GVA, Sagan, Matthews and Canc all have amazing form at the moment. At that distance you could throw a blanket over them if they're in a sprint - just depends on who has anything left in the legs at the end. You would never say this 4 years ago, but I reckon Canc could just about see the others off, and Sagan could just about be 4th.

MSR often throws in a complete surprise. Who's gonna be the Goss/Ciolek 2nd or 3rd tier sprinter who either gets bloody close or wins?

Debusschere
 
Re: Re:

Jspear said:
The Hegelian said:
To state the obvious, GVA, Sagan, Matthews and Canc all have amazing form at the moment. At that distance you could throw a blanket over them if they're in a sprint - just depends on who has anything left in the legs at the end. You would never say this 4 years ago, but I reckon Canc could just about see the others off, and Sagan could just about be 4th.

MSR often throws in a complete surprise. Who's gonna be the Goss/Ciolek 2nd or 3rd tier sprinter who either gets bloody close or wins?

Debusschere

Isn't he hurt? Anyway, there are plenty 2nd-3rd tier sprinters with a shot this year, though many wouldn't be considered a complete surprise.

I'll go:

***** Matthews, Kristoff, Sagan
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Gaviria
*** Cavendish, EBH, GVA, Viviani, field
** Démare, Gallopin, Stybar
* Boonen, Howard, Modolo, Kwiatkowski, Felline
 
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Tinkov to put the hammer down on Cipressa and all hell to break lose on the Poggio.

Sagan, Stybar, Fabian, Eddie and bunch of others won't be waiting for the sprint, it should be fun to watch

outside bet ... the peloton will mismanage the breakaway and some no name baroudeur will take it :eek:
 
Guardini should've signed for Lampre instead of Astana actually. If you see how a mediocre sprinter like Modolo performs with them, Guardini would've had decent support and opportunities in Italian races at Lampre. He was a better sprinter than Modolo after all.
 
Re: Re:

Jspear said:
The Hegelian said:
To state the obvious, GVA, Sagan, Matthews and Canc all have amazing form at the moment. At that distance you could throw a blanket over them if they're in a sprint - just depends on who has anything left in the legs at the end. You would never say this 4 years ago, but I reckon Canc could just about see the others off, and Sagan could just about be 4th.

MSR often throws in a complete surprise. Who's gonna be the Goss/Ciolek 2nd or 3rd tier sprinter who either gets bloody close or wins?

Debusschere
Ladys and Gentlemen: Ben Swift! :cool: :p
 
My attempt of categorizing the riders. It's pretty hard actually, and I must admit that I don't really know the parcours this year. Anyway:

***** Sagan, Kristoff, Matthews
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Van Avermaet
*** Gaviria, Hagen, Cavendish
** Kwiatkowski, Greipel, Stybar, Gallopin
* Swift, Bonifazio, Nibali, Nizzolo, Modolo, lots of others
 
Re: Re:

DFA123 said:
greenedge said:
DFA123 said:
SafeBet said:
There aren't many strong teams interested in a sprint. Katusha is clearly weaker than the past two years without Paolini and Cofidis is not built to control a race of this caliber. Etixx could probably do it but I don't see them putting all the eggs in one basket. Orica will have to work a lot.

Despite the probable good weather and the absence of Le Manie, I think it's a good year for an attacker.

They won't though. They'll just tell Matthews to follow someone like Sagan or Cancellara whenever they attack - like he was told to do with Gilbert at Amstel Gold last year. He almost certainly wouldn't beat Kristoff or Bouhanni anyway if it came to a bunch sprint.
He beat Bouhanni here last year, why couldn't he this year?
Because Bouhanni is on much better form this year.

That's true, but Matthews seems to be flying- he even beat Dumoulin in a prologue.
 
Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
My attempt of categorizing the riders. It's pretty hard actually, and I must admit that I don't really know the parcours this year. Anyway:

***** Sagan, Kristoff, Matthews
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Van Avermaet
*** Gaviria, Hagen, Cavendish
** Kwiatkowski, Greipel, Stybar, Gallopin
* Swift, Bonifazio, Nibali, Nizzolo, Modolo, lots of others

6sg9ZAa.jpg
 
Re: Re:

staubsauger said:
Jspear said:
The Hegelian said:
To state the obvious, GVA, Sagan, Matthews and Canc all have amazing form at the moment. At that distance you could throw a blanket over them if they're in a sprint - just depends on who has anything left in the legs at the end. You would never say this 4 years ago, but I reckon Canc could just about see the others off, and Sagan could just about be 4th.

MSR often throws in a complete surprise. Who's gonna be the Goss/Ciolek 2nd or 3rd tier sprinter who either gets bloody close or wins?

Debusschere
Ladys and Gentlemen: Ben Swift! :cool: :p

Good call. Although he podiumed 2014 didn't he? Wouldn't be that much of a surprise to see him thereabouts.
 
Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
My attempt of categorizing the riders. It's pretty hard actually, and I must admit that I don't really know the parcours this year. Anyway:

***** Sagan, Kristoff, Matthews
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Van Avermaet
*** Gaviria, Hagen, Cavendish
** Kwiatkowski, Greipel, Stybar, Gallopin
* Swift, Bonifazio, Nibali, Nizzolo, Modolo, lots of others

Good list. I'd take Sagan and Matthews off the five star and bring in Cancellara. Kristoff and he are both in good nick, and both have proven legs at the end of a super long/hard monument. That counts for a lot in a lottery. Sagan still has a big question mark on that front, and Matthews has yet to prove he can win sprints at the business end of a proper hard race. Both definitely four stars though.

Also not sure about Gaviria and Cav at three stars.
 
Re: Re:

The Hegelian said:
Hugo Koblet said:
My attempt of categorizing the riders. It's pretty hard actually, and I must admit that I don't really know the parcours this year. Anyway:

***** Sagan, Kristoff, Matthews
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Van Avermaet
*** Gaviria, Hagen, Cavendish
** Kwiatkowski, Greipel, Stybar, Gallopin
* Swift, Bonifazio, Nibali, Nizzolo, Modolo, lots of others

Good list. I'd take Sagan and Matthews off the five star and bring in Cancellara. Kristoff and he are both in good nick, and both have proven legs at the end of a super long/hard monument. That counts for a lot in a lottery. Sagan still has a big question mark on that front, and Matthews has yet to prove he can win sprints at the business end of a proper hard race. Both definitely four stars though.

Also not sure about Gaviria and Cav at three stars.
I know MSR is a longer race, but Matthews did win the sprint for 2nd in the Worlds Road Race... I'm afraid he will take it the win, unless an attack succeeds from one of the 3 strongest classics riders, Cance, Sagan and GVA.