107th Milano - Sanremo, 19th March 2016, 291 km, WT

[Gloin22]

Re:

My attempt of categorizing the riders. It's pretty hard actually, and I must admit that I don't really know the parcours this year. Anyway:

***** Sagan, Kristoff, Matthews
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Van Avermaet
*** Gaviria, Hagen, Cavendish
** Kwiatkowski, Greipel, Stybar, Gallopin
* Swift, Bonifazio, Nibali, Nizzolo, Modolo, lots of others

Seems harsh to rate Swift as only one star, he's inifnitely better than EBH or Gallopin, at least in MSR. 3rd place to boot and he is looking his best shape ever this year. At least coming close in sprints.

 

[jaylew]

Re:

My attempt of categorizing the riders. It's pretty hard actually, and I must admit that I don't really know the parcours this year. Anyway:

***** Sagan, Kristoff, Matthews
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Van Avermaet
*** Gaviria, Hagen, Cavendish
** Kwiatkowski, Greipel, Stybar, Gallopin
* Swift, Bonifazio, Nibali, Nizzolo, Modolo, lots of others

Greipel isn't riding. Still too injured.

 

[Buffalo Soldier]

**** Canc, GVA, Sagan, Kristoff
***Matthews, EBH, Gavira
**Bouhanni, Kwiat, Stybar, Swift
*Galoppin, Boonen, Viviani, ...

This is how it will go:
Sagan attacks immediately on poggio, GVA counters, canc tries to follow, GVA starts descend with 8 sec on both Sagan and Cand, they easily catch up in descent, GVA wins sprint.

 

[DBotero]

Kristoff
EBH
Swift
Cavendish might ride for EBH judging by his yesterday comments.

 

[DFA123]

Kristoff
EBH
Swift
Cavendish might ride for EBH judging by his yesterday comments.

It's difficult to imagine a scenario where Cavendish could actually help EBH. If he is in a position to lead-out for a final sprint, he might as well be doing the sprint himself!

 

[DBotero]

Kristoff
EBH
Swift
Cavendish might ride for EBH judging by his yesterday comments.

It's difficult to imagine a scenario where Cavendish could actually help EBH. If he is in a position to lead-out for a final sprint, he might as well be doing the sprint himself!

Fetching bottles

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

My attempt of categorizing the riders. It's pretty hard actually, and I must admit that I don't really know the parcours this year. Anyway:

***** Sagan, Kristoff, Matthews
**** Cancellara, Bouhanni, Van Avermaet
*** Gaviria, Hagen, Cavendish
** Kwiatkowski, Greipel, Stybar, Gallopin
* Swift, Bonifazio, Nibali, Nizzolo, Modolo, lots of others

Seems harsh to rate Swift as only one star, he's inifnitely better than EBH or Gallopin, at least in MSR. 3rd place to boot and he is looking his best shape ever this year. At least coming close in sprints.

It might seem harsh, yes. However, the way I categorize the riders is how likely I think they are to win - not how likely they are to finish in a good position. And even though I have my scepticism towards Hagen with a 10th place being his best ever result in MSR, I think that he's more likely to win the race than Swift - even though the latter might, on average, finish in a better position.

That said, I just made the rankings very quickly, and if I had another go at it I might categorize the riders differently. For instance, I'm not really sure that Stybar actually deserves two stars (over, say, Swift).

 

[pedromiguelmartins]

I just don't see how Saga could win this. If he tries to go out on the flat or descents, there's no way in hell he could escape Fabian. If he doesn't escape, then someone is going to beat him in a group sprint (kristoff, Greg, Tom, someone else). In fact, if it is him Vs Fabian, or him Vs stybar, him Vs Greg...

I don't see Peter wining this.

 

[Kwibus]

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

I'm hoping for Sagan, but it will be hard.
Poggio isn't steep enough for him to unleash a burst like he did at the worlds and in a sprint with the other sprinters he'll end somewhere between 2nd and 7th.
Also if he manages to get away on the Poggio he won't be alone and then the people with him won't work.

 

[tomorrow]

Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

I'm hoping for Sagan, but it will be hard.
Poggio isn't steep enough for him to unleash a burst like he did at the worlds and in a sprint with the other sprinters he'll end somewhere between 2nd and 7th.
Also if he manages to get away on the Poggio he won't be alone and then the people with him won't work.

Oh, I think GVA will definitely work with him.

 

[Vasilis]

Re: Re:

First of all: THIS RACE MUST HAVE LA MANIE BACK!

I'm hoping for Sagan, but it will be hard.
Poggio isn't steep enough for him to unleash a burst like he did at the worlds and in a sprint with the other sprinters he'll end somewhere between 2nd and 7th.
Also if he manages to get away on the Poggio he won't be alone and then the people with him won't work.

Oh, I think GVA will definitely work with him.

Just like on stage 6 of TA.

 

[SafeBet]

Sky: Kennaugh, Rowe, Stannard, Puccio, Thomas, Viviani, Kwiatkowski, Swift.

Astana: Boom, Nibali, Lutsenko, Agnoli, Capecchi, Smukulis, Grivko, LL Sanchez.

 

[swissfr]

***** kristoff, Bouhanni
****Matthews, Gaviria
*** Cancellara, Van Avermaet, Sagan
**Kwitatko, Stybar, Thomas
*Swift, Démare, Viviani, Modolo,...

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

**** Canc, GVA, Sagan, Kristoff
***Matthews, EBH, Gavira
**Bouhanni, Kwiat, Stybar, Swift
*Galoppin, Boonen, Viviani, ...

This is how it will go:
Sagan attacks immediately on poggio, GVA counters, canc tries to follow, GVA starts descend with 8 sec on both Sagan and Cand, they easily catch up in descent, GVA wins sprint.

I think GVA will not win another sprint against Sagan

 

[Alexandre B.]

I don't think that the flat finish suits Van Avermaet well in comparison to the other favorites.

Has to isolate himself with an average finisher.

 

[del1962]

Will Gerrans be working for Matthews?

 

[slosada]

Very enlightening that last comment. Thanks.

Can we discuss cycling in this forum?

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re:

Sky: Kennaugh, Rowe, Stannard, Puccio, Thomas, Viviani, Kwiatkowski, Swift.

Astana: Boom, Nibali, Lutsenko, Agnoli, Capecchi, Smukulis, Grivko, LL Sanchez.

LottoNL-Jumbo : Van Asbroeck, Battaglin, van Emden, Hofland, Leezer, Martens, Tjallingii, Vanmarcke.

Katusha : Bystrøm, Haller, Guarnieri, Kristoff, Lagutin, Mørkøv, Špilak, Vicioso.

Cofidis : Bouhanni, Cousin, Jeannesson, Laporte, Lemoine, Maté, Simon, Soupe.

Giant-Alpecin : Arndt, Curvers, Dumoulin, Geschke, de Kort, Stamsnijder, Timmer, Waeytens.

 

[BeagRigh]

The only thing I know is Tjallingii will be in the break!

 

[Rollthedice]

Nibali will race after all, he's in shape and angry, there's good chances the race will be blown appart in the final stages so we can avoid a massive sprint finish. Sagan, Canc and GVA are the obvious choices for the podium.

 

[King Boonen]

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Gaviria being rated a better chance than Cav? This place is nearly as crazy as the clinic!

I actually think Gaviria has a better chance to finish with the peloton than Cav. I don't know if Gaviria is good on routes like this but I'm pretty sure Cavendish will have problems on the Cipressa and the Poggio and especially since he generally hasn't been that good this year I don't expect anything from him.

 

[yaco]

Re:

Will Gerrans be working for Matthews?

I suggest you research before you post - Gerrans is riding Catalunya, not MSR.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

 

[Maaaaaaaarten]

Re:

Surprised that nobody's mentioned Panzerwagon. Now that Etixx don't have a clear favourite (no Cav or Boonen to protect, Gaviria not enough of a favourite to dedicate a team to yet), Martin and co will be allowed to race, and we all know what a monster he is on the descents and the flat. Surely he's got to be an outsider for the win

Hopefully for him the weather is nice.