107th Milano - Sanremo, 19th March 2016, 291 km, WT

[SafeBet]

Re:

Is Guardini injured? Because it seems odd for him not to be in Astana's provisional team.

What's his best result in a classic?

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Is Guardini injured? Because it seems odd for him not to be in Astana's provisional team.

What's his best result in a classic?

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

 

[Gloin22]

Re: Re:

Is Guardini injured? Because it seems odd for him not to be in Astana's provisional team.

What's his best result in a classic?

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

So did EBH. Doesn't make him any good at MSR does it.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Yeah, Sky is really strong, but its very hard to envisage a scenario where any of their riders actually win. A Kwiatkowski / Thomas attack is surely a better bet though than a bunch sprint with Viviani/Swift.

I think Swift would try and sneak into the Poggio attackers' group, although at this point he's focused on climbing for so long that until that pretty good sprint in the first P-N sprint stage, I would have given him barely any advantage over the sprint of GVA, Stybar et al.

No doubt they will end up just relentlessly driving the peloton most of the day, hoovering up all breaks before running out of ideas in the last 10km.

Quoted for truth.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

Is Guardini injured? Because it seems odd for him not to be in Astana's provisional team.

What's his best result in a classic?

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

So did EBH. Doesn't make him any good at MSR does it.

Well, EBH is on the startlist.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

I count two in his whole career. A stage in Langkawi and a stage in Qinghai Lake.

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

I count two in his whole career. A stage in Langkawi and a stage in Qinghai Lake.

So twice as many as Kristoff had won before he won MSR.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Has anyone other than Cavendish ever won the first monument they rode as a pro in somewhat recent times?

Evgeni Berzin Liege 1994
Gabriele Colombo Milano-Sanremo 1996

I checked Hamilton (Liege 03) and Bobrik (Lombardia 94) but they rode it the year before

Quite a rare feat if Gaviria can do it. The distance is his main obstacle I guess, he should easily handle the climbs.

Where do you check those results? Cyclingarchives only has the top 30 for older MSRs.

I remembered those 2 odd wins, and I went to check on procyclingstats

Thanks! I'm using Procyclingstats a lot, but never realised their historical results database is that good.

But it seems like neither Berzin nor Colombo won their first ever monument. Berzin rode MSR, Lombarida and MSR again before he won Liege, and Colombo rode Paris-Roubaix in 1995. But maybe you were thinking about their first try in the specific monument they won.

I only know for sure Merckx and Cavendish have done this, but I reckon there has to be others in between.

I'm not sure - and I can't really find much statistics on it - but what about Hinault in Liege-Bastogne-Liege 1977?
Binda might be another one, but he's even harder to find data on.

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

I count two in his whole career. A stage in Langkawi and a stage in Qinghai Lake.

So twice as many as Kristoff had won before he won MSR.

Kristoff had many top 10's in big, long one day classics though. (3rd Olympics, 4th Vlaanderen, 8th in Roubaix)

 

[TMP402]

Re: Re:

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

I count two in his whole career. A stage in Langkawi and a stage in Qinghai Lake.

So twice as many as Kristoff had won before he won MSR.

Kristoff had many top 10's in big, long one day classics though. (3rd Olympics, 4th Vlaanderen, 8th in Roubaix)

I know, but I don't understand why people are so strongly opposed to Guardini getting a spot on Astana's team. Is he not liked for some reason?

 

[Ricco']

The problem with Guardini is not the 200km.

It's Cipressa and Poggio being ridden at full speed after 230 km.

Scheldeprijs is flat pancake on the other side.

 

[TMP402]

Re:

The problem with Guardini is not the 200km.

It's Cipressa and Poggio being ridden at full speed after 230 km.

Scheldeprijs is flat pancake on the other side.

He's not even worth a spot on the team?

 

[Gloin22]

Re: Re:

The problem with Guardini is not the 200km.

It's Cipressa and Poggio being ridden at full speed after 230 km.

Scheldeprijs is flat pancake on the other side.

He's not even worth a spot on the team?

The team and him may have different goals, no point sending their best sprinter to a race he will not get any decent place. Who would you replace him in that Astana MSR team anyway?

Literally, Nibali needs his Italian doms, and other riders are far better domestiques/opportunists than he is.

 

[Billie]

Re: Re:

4th Scheldeprijs 2013. And if your insinuation is he can't win over 200km, he has, several times.

I count two in his whole career. A stage in Langkawi and a stage in Qinghai Lake.

So twice as many as Kristoff had won before he won MSR.

Kristoff had many top 10's in big, long one day classics though. (3rd Olympics, 4th Vlaanderen, 8th in Roubaix)

I know, but I don't understand why people are so strongly opposed to Guardini getting a spot on Astana's team. Is he not liked for some reason?

I like Guardini and think he's an underrated sprinter but he doesn't add much apart from his sprint. If you would take him with you he'd have to accept a role as a domestique from the start and isn't it better to use a real domestique for that and let Guardini focus on a race that he can actually compete for a win in.

 

[More Strides than Rides]

Meteorology could play an importante role this year.

Any news on what to expect? How reliable are forecasts for the area 5 days out?

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Literally, Nibali needs his Italian doms, and other riders are far better domestiques/opportunists than he is.

Nibbles is not confirmed to ride it but I agree anyway. Guardini is not worth a spot, he will never challenge for the win in a race like this and he's not a useful dom.

 

[Mr.White]

I'm going 100% with Sagan, justice must be served

Guardini? He has nothing for San Remo! This one is going to be between attackers...

 

[roundabout]

Re: Re:

The problem with Guardini is not the 200km.

It's Cipressa and Poggio being ridden at full speed after 230 km.

Scheldeprijs is flat pancake on the other side.

He's not even worth a spot on the team?

A rider with his characteristics is worth a spot if he can get to the finish in the main group on a normal day.

There is little indication that he has shown enough progress from a rider who DNFed and finished in the last big group in his 2 attempts.

 

[mr. tibbs]

Re: Re:

They won't though. They'll just tell Matthews to follow someone like Sagan or Cancellara whenever they attack - like he was told to do with Gilbert at Amstel Gold last year. He almost certainly wouldn't beat Kristoff or Bouhanni anyway if it came to a bunch sprint.

Etixx will be the key to whether or not a bunch finish is likely. I guess it depends whether or not they believe Stybar has more chance of winning from a small group, or Gaviria from a bunch sprint. Not an easy decision to make though.

I'd love it if a Matthews/Sagan/Van Avermaet move stuck over the Poggio.

But surely Katusha will be the "hold it all together" team, not Quick Step.

 

[Mr.White]

Re: Re:

They won't though. They'll just tell Matthews to follow someone like Sagan or Cancellara whenever they attack - like he was told to do with Gilbert at Amstel Gold last year. He almost certainly wouldn't beat Kristoff or Bouhanni anyway if it came to a bunch sprint.

Etixx will be the key to whether or not a bunch finish is likely. I guess it depends whether or not they believe Stybar has more chance of winning from a small group, or Gaviria from a bunch sprint. Not an easy decision to make though.

I'd love it if a Matthews/Sagan/Van Avermaet move stuck over the Poggio.

But surely Katusha will be the "hold it all together" team, not Quick Step.

Good luck with that without Paolini...

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

They won't though. They'll just tell Matthews to follow someone like Sagan or Cancellara whenever they attack - like he was told to do with Gilbert at Amstel Gold last year. He almost certainly wouldn't beat Kristoff or Bouhanni anyway if it came to a bunch sprint.

Etixx will be the key to whether or not a bunch finish is likely. I guess it depends whether or not they believe Stybar has more chance of winning from a small group, or Gaviria from a bunch sprint. Not an easy decision to make though.

I'd love it if a Matthews/Sagan/Van Avermaet move stuck over the Poggio.

But surely Katusha will be the "hold it all together" team, not Quick Step.

Julien Simon (Cofidis) will do that.

 

[Flamin]

Sagan vs Matthews. Cancellara 3rd.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

Sagan vs Matthews. Cancellara 3rd.

If Sagan and Cancellara are up there, then GVA will be right there as well. He's managed to beat Sagan twice in a sprint just recently.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Sagan vs Matthews. Cancellara 3rd.

If Sagan and Cancellara are up there, then GVA will be right there as well. He's managed to beat Sagan twice in a sprint just recently.

Yes, Greg will finish 4th him beating Sagan twice isn't really representative for Sunday though. He stands very little chance.

 

[jens_attacks]

1. Pippo
2. Sagan
3. Cancellara