108th Liège-Bastogne-Liège: 24 April, 2022

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That's a good description of this kind of situation.

Still, I sometimes don't understand the riders there. Assume you have one guy in front and four people behind. Then each of them is afraid of putting too much effort into chasing the leading guy, fearing that the others could profit from his work and then distance him later or win a sprint against him. But still, doing the work increases the chance of a) pulling back the leader and b) distancing riders behind you to at least secure the fifth place. Instead, everyone is looking at each other, so in 9 of 10 cases the first place is gone, but also a lot of people are allowed to come back, and you may end up getting 10th in a sprint.

But that's not to take anything away from Remco's performance. Of course, the rider attacking has to have the legs to create a sufficient gap to create this situation and then to profit from it. Remco is very good at that and he played it perfectly today.

But then other factors come into play. Am i the fastest of this group? If not, and we divide all the work equally, i'm still not winning the sprint. I'm not riding for 5th place, and i may never get this opportunity again, so i'll just try and do my pulls at 90% instead of a 100%. Or maybe i am the fastest of the group, but the worst climber, and we still have to get over the Roche Aux Faucons, so i'll just keep quiet in the back and hope nobody notices me. Everybody has their story. Only when you are absolutely certain you can win the race and have energy to spare, will you commit fully.

 

[Fantastico]

But then other factors come into play. Am i the fastest of this group? If not, and we divide all the work equally, i'm still not winning the sprint. I'm not riding for 5th place, and i may never get this opportunity again, so i'll just try and do my pulls at 90% instead of a 100%. Or maybe i am the fastest of the group, but the worst climber, and we still have to get over the Roche Aux Faucons, so i'll just keep quiet in the back and hope nobody notices me. Everybody has their story. Only when you are absolutely certain you can win the race and have energy to spare, will you commit fully.

I get all your points and I understand that everyone has their own interests. But the "I'm not riding for 5th place, and i may never get this opportunity again, so i'll just try and do my pulls at 90% instead of a 100%" often appears to be a fallacy, because if you do only 90% pulls, and the others think the same way, this usually implies that you will eventually be riding for 5th place.

It would be actually interesting if there's some study where this has been analyzed from a game theoretical perspective - even though you probably have to make a lot of simplifications because in a cycling race way too many different factors may be relevant.

 

[Netserk]

Disagree on small hills after Redoute versus Colonster after RaF. Firstly Forges isn't that much easier, secondly Redoute won't open up equally big gaps in that position and therefore wouldn't dominate the race as much, and finally a Redoute finale has more flat and rolling terrain than a RaF finale after the final big climb so more places where a move can be made. And setting race dynamics aside, Redoute has a lot more history in the race.

You can add more hills after RaF if you want.

I think skipping RaF with only Les Forges after Redoute has too much risk of being raced poorly for it to be a viable option for ASO. They either want a great race or a strong winner, mostly high profile winners and contenders, so they will favour a hard finale. A non-steep climb after RaF should allow for both.

 

[Escarabajo]

This has been the scenario on many occasions since the dawn of time. As soon as one guy gets a gap, the chasers start looking at each other because nobody wants to do all the work so somebody else can profit of that. If one of the favorites in the chase still has domestiques, everybody will look at those guys to do the work. Obviously those guys are not better than their leader, and their leader already wasn't good enough to follow the guy who attacked to begin with. So basically the entire chasing group is counting on guys who are nowhere near the level of the guy in the lead, in order to close the gap. So then you get a few halfhearted attempts to close the gap, but as soon as somebody sees others in his wheel, they stop because again, they don't want to drag others to the finish while doing all the work. And then there is a guy like Van Aert who under normal conditions will win the sprint, so nobody feels inclined to work even more because they'd just be working for Van Aert in that case.

It almost always work. If rider X feel strong try to do one strong attack that will create "some" separation. After that it becomes history because everyone behind, for all the reasons you mention, start behaving like knuckleheads.

In the past Valverde used to be the chasers killer, now is Wout. LOL.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Chapeau Remco. Chapeau also to Bardet. And finally also to Quinten Hermans.

I think we probably need an Intermarche - Wanty team thread at this point. What an incredible classics season they’ve had. Wins at Gent Wevelgem and Scheldeprijs, second at Liege, fourth at Roubaix, fifth at E3. And those results have come from four different riders.

They presumably won’t be as strong in the big stage races as they were in spring but they are legitimately a mid pack World Tour team and are way too good to be at any risk of getting relegated.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I get all your points and I understand that everyone has their own interests. But the "I'm not riding for 5th place, and i may never get this opportunity again, so i'll just try and do my pulls at 90% instead of a 100%" often appears to be a fallacy, because if you do only 90% pulls, and the others think the same way, this usually implies that you will eventually be riding for 5th place.

It would be actually interesting if there's some study where this has been analyzed from a game theoretical perspective - even though you probably have to make a lot of simplifications because in a cycling race way too many different factors may be relevant.

Well, that's the thing. If you do 100% pulls the others will be laughing behind your back because they'll be doing 90% pulls and they'll be dividing the podium. So everybody will be doing those 90% pulls, hoping there is one idiot who does 100% pulls.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Well, that's the thing. If you do 100% pulls the others will be laughing behind your back because they'll be doing 90% pulls and they'll be dividing the podium. So everybody will be doing those 90% pulls, hoping there is one idiot who does 100% pulls.

His name is Benoot

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

His name is Benoot

Indeed.

 

[Fantastico]

Well, that's the thing. If you do 100% pulls the others will be laughing behind your back because they'll be doing 90% pulls and they'll be dividing the podium. So everybody will be doing those 90% pulls, hoping there is one idiot who does 100% pulls.

Yes, but that's exactly the dilemma. They would be better off if everyone would do 100% pulls. If you simplify it, it's similar to the Prisoner's dilemma. Each one has an incentive to pull 90%, so that's the Nash equilibrium and the usual come out. But the (Pareto-)optimal decision would be for everyone to cooperate and do 100% pulls.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow, congrats to Remco, just way too strong. Good to see him shake off any effects from his crash. Nice to see Jack Haig in the also rans chasing group but he seems to be becoming the ninja of Australian cycling.

 

[Leinster]

Chapeau Remco. Chapeau also to Bardet. And finally also to Quinten Hermans.

I think we probably need an Intermarche - Wanty team thread at this point. What an incredible classics season they’ve had. Wins at Gent Wevelgem and Scheldeprijs, second at Liege, fourth at Roubaix, fifth at E3. And those results have come from four different riders.

They presumably won’t be as strong in the big stage races as they were in spring but they are legitimately a mid pack World Tour team and are way too good to be at any risk of getting relegated.

I don’t know how the points all work out, but if Wanty go the whole summer with no GT stage wins, while the likes of Ewan, Cort, Bennett etc all go nuts in every race, then this could all look very different come August.

I have to say it’s unlikely that Wanty go the whole summer without a few stage wins.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Most teams except Bahrain lost many domestiques in the crash. That should suit an early Remco attack. Especially if the other top riders starts looking at Wout.

Good call.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Just when there seems to be a slight chance for the small group of chasers behind, Valverde is there and it's doomed.

Forum gold.

Or should that be silver?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Roglic is way overrated ...

Nah.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

I don’t know how the points all work out, but if Wanty go the whole summer with no GT stage wins, while the likes of Ewan, Cort, Bennett etc all go nuts in every race, then this could all look very different come August.

I have to say it’s unlikely that Wanty go the whole summer without a few stage wins.

Taco time!

A stage win in TdF gets 100 points; Hermans got 400 today. Also don't Intermarche race some of those those one day .1 French races which give 125 for a win?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congratulations to Remco Evenepoel for winning Liège-Bastogne-Liège and doing that in his own style.

When Evenepoel attacked his bike was like i was not made for this. It was a nice race to watch. Bahrain had a strong team but in the end they needed to sacrifice Moho early and in general they didn't get much from this race. I was impressed by Martínez. Valverde inspirational as always. Nice to see Hirschi in top 10 again on such race. Too bad for such severe crashes. Hope all involved get well soon.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Who did a stupid move against the 4 main teams still with domestiques (Bahrein, Movistar, Ineos, Jumbo) and a strong headwind.

Can’t be that stupid if he won.

 

[Danskebjerge]

But still, doing the work increases the chance of a) pulling back the leader and b) distancing riders behind you to at least secure the fifth place.

Yes, and that's why it's a problem for cycling if it gets too dominated by a small group of riders. They may only go for the wins, so that makes two scenarios more probable: 1.) They will not spend energy on a chase if it means that other riders will profit from it, and 2.) if they are sitting in a breakaway with another big name, they would rather get caught from behind than have a feeling of playing the win into the hands of the other guy. (We've seen scenario 2 with Alaphilippe/Fuglsang and Pogacar/van der Poel.)

 

[SHAD0W93]

Like a bullet? A lot of guys here must be feeling like Bon Jovi now.

Shot through the heart.

Even more if they know their actual titled “Shot Through the Heart” song as that’s more fitting. Heck even “Bullet” would be fitting for how they feel after this.

 

[VeloMaster]

The flat run-in was not the problem today.

Once again, a substantial run-in -- flat or rolling -- proves its worth. It favours the brave and prevents the top contenders from playing chicken.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Pulling:

I am sure that most of us forum nerds would happily take someone else doing 10% of our pulling for us.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Even more if they know their actual titled “Shot Through the Heart” song as that’s more fitting. Heck even “Bullet” would be fitting for how they feel after this.

Nah, the song title for this forum is; "And you're to blame!"

 

[Escarabajo]

Nah.

You isolated my sentence. This year for the Tour. And for this race for that matter as well. He is having some issues and that's no secret.

 

[CyclistAbi]

You isolated my sentence. This year for the Tour. And for this race for that matter as well. He is having some issues and that's no secret.

It's just not the right word. I feel it's safe to say Rogla was never ever overrated.

P.S. Even if i would agree he had some issues this year. He still won PN, beaten future LBL winner in an ITT and has blow up Ineos on Krabelin while being injured.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Nah, the song title for this forum is; "And you're to blame!"

For us fans saying to them maybe but the riders will be in their bed tonight thinking:
“And I am
Shot through the heart as I lay there alone
In the dark through the heart”
And:
“What is the distance between a bullet and a gun
God are you listening
Or have you just given up
We need forgiveness”

While Remco and Quickstep will be taking a page out of the NE Patriots book and blasting:
“This is our time
This is our night
Are you alive?
Get up, get up, get up, get up, time to fly
Are we gonna raise the roof? (oh yeah)
Are we gonna touch the sky? (hell yeah)
Everybody with me let me hear you now
Yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah
This is our house
These are my people, listen, this is my town
This is our house
Ain't nobody know we're gonna knock it down
(Oh whoa oh oh oh oh oh)
This is our house
(Oh whoa oh oh oh oh oh)”

At the parties tonight