108th Liège-Bastogne-Liège: 24 April, 2022

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Read that Woods didn't expect an attack anymore, that he thought an attack at La Redoute would be done at the bottom and so (he claims) was caught off-guard and was already dropping back. I guess his team, other than Fuglsang (who knew first hand) must not have considered Evenepoel at all, because it's become something of a trademark of his. He did it in Poland (actually on the flat after the climb), he did it in Denmark, he did it in Valencia, and in Itzulia. I could be forgetting some.

Literally was an article a while back of, I don't remember who, but also an ex classics specialist. Who said the big moves are made on top of a climb, not on the climb. Because at the top everyone is near their limit and tries to recover. The ones who can attack there are super strong.

 

[AlfaLum]

Literally was an article a while back of, I don't remember who, but also an ex classics specialist. Who said the big moves are made on top of a climb, not on the climb. Because at the top everyone is near their limit and tries to recover. The ones who can attack there are super strong.

I think many riders did not expect an attack on the top of the Redoute, it is the only explanation for the absence of all the good finishers in the first positions at the top there.

The reasoning must be that every year every attacker just kills himself between the Redoute and Roche Aux Faucons and they are caught automatically when running out of gas.

However with Remco in the race this is a very stupid way of thinking because the guy doesn’t run out of gas when in his best days. So while on the one hand I can understand the way the favorites were thinking it is on the other hand just plain stupid to not realize that Evenepoel is an exception to the rule.

Especially for teams with multiple options (Yes, Bahrain looking at you) I just don’t understand how you do not have at least one guy trying to cover Remco’s wheel on the redoute.

 

[Escarabajo]

When exactly he would attack wasn't telegraphed by his position, unless you believe it was imminent for the whole climb. But no one thought he would attack in the first half of the climb, despite having the same position then.

That he would attack over the top was expected, but that was independent on having ridden the whole climb in 2nd position.

I'll be honest but it was telegraphed from the start on the race. I have heard so many ex-riders and news media that the probability of Remco attacking on La Redoute was very big. If you ask me there was a very high probability, knowing him and his type of riding, that he would attack there. When Ala crashed that probability went even higher. There was practically no other option for him. Like many experts said shame on everyone for not being ready. Or maybe they were but played their cards accordingly. Wrong. Attacking in the last climb was just too late and would have been very hard to make a gap, especially on that steep climb.

100% telegraphed.

 

[gunara]

So many family commitment lately and missed the whole riot.
I concede it's a spectacular win, and will bring him the pieces of confidence he had probably been missing since the injury. Which as a non fan of the hype really bothers me
Yes the peloton should have known better, but there's hardly ever been such thing as smart chaser in every big solo win, no matter who are there, there'll always be element to mess things up. The ability to put others in such stupid no win position is a victory in itself, so there's not enough excuse to diminish the win, and only select few can do that after all. Remco surely can.

 

[Extinction]

When exactly he would attack wasn't telegraphed by his position, unless you believe it was imminent for the whole climb. But no one thought he would attack in the first half of the climb, despite having the same position then.

That he would attack over the top was expected, but that was independent on having ridden the whole climb in 2nd position.

Not the whole climb, but with Ala out and Vansevenant (?) taking the charge with Evenepoel on his wheel at that point in the race, you'd have to be a complete moron not to detect the sent of sulphur in the air as the prelude to imminent explosion.

 

[Sciatic]

Read that Woods didn't expect an attack anymore, that he thought an attack at La Redoute would be done at the bottom and so (he claims) was caught off-guard and was already dropping back. I guess his team, other than Fuglsang (who knew first hand) must not have considered Evenepoel at all, because it's become something of a trademark of his. He did it in Poland (actually on the flat after the climb), he did it in Denmark, he did it in Valencia, and in Itzulia. I could be forgetting some.

Woods should have been reading this forum and he would have been better prepared to anticipate the attack!

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

Woods should have been reading this forum and he would have been better prepared to anticipate the attack!

Nah, pre race he would have read that Remco had no chance and the experts reckoned it was van Aert's race after Pog dropped out.

 

[Oldermanish]

I'll be honest but it was telegraphed from the start on the race. I have heard so many ex-riders and news media that the probability of Remco attacking on La Redoute was very big. If you ask me there was a very high probability, knowing him and his type of riding, that he would attack there. When Ala crashed that probability went even higher. There was practically no other option for him. Like many experts said shame on everyone for not being ready. Or maybe they were but played their cards accordingly. Wrong. Attacking in the last climb was just too late and would have been very hard to make a gap, especially on that steep climb.

100% telegraphed.

Agreed. It is as likely that knowledge contributed to the stale, late response since every rider felt they could follow the expected chase. It took a little while for them to realize they couldn't and Remco was in locked down mode by that time. Roglic did that in a Tour stage to all of the GC contenders on a downhill.
A break like that is a simple calculation, too. Remco only had to gauge his effort to meet or exceed the predictable effort of one or two riders in a tired field. If he could maintain their pace, (and I'm sure his DS and everyone is charting the gap) he would respond with an increased tempo as soon as the parcours allowed a serious increase in his advantage. Sometimes the greatest increase in breakaway separation comes from short efforts where the chasers' efforts would be more conservative so no one would be dropped. Nothings worse than powering a short climb and have a group dump you before your reach the top....end of day!
The closer he got to the finish; the less sustained effort the chasers applied as no team had excess riders to sacrifice. Remco knew that was the case and that would make him very, very happy in committing to an all out effort. That had to feel super-good.

 

[Big Doopie]

rewatched.

some observations:

1. Vansavanant was great but won't be enough in the future.
2. Bahrain had a minimum of five riders in the chase after Redoute. FIVE. However, clearly, some needed to recover before they could contribute.
3. Movistar had at least three. But ditto.

conclusions:

1. It is my belief that Remco is one of only two riders in today's peloton who could complete such an attack (the other being Pog). That's one of the reasons he is so exciting. I seriously doubt any other rider can TT in a headwind and hold off a chasing pack with support riders for 30 km. Not Ala, not VdP, not Rog, not WvA.

2. He will need a team that can wear down more of the other team's support riders. If he can get away when it's nothing but other team leaders or maybe one lieutenant left, that will improve his chances in these types of raids.

my 2 cents.

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

rewatched.

some observations:

1. Vansavanant was great but won't be enough in the future.
2. Bahrain had a minimum of five riders in the chase after Redoute. FIVE. However, clearly, some needed to recover before they could contribute.
3. Moviestar had at least three. But ditto.

conclusions:

1. It is my belief that Remco is one of only two riders in today's peloton who could complete such an attack (the other being Pog). That's one of the reasons he is so exciting. I seriously doubt any other rider can TT in a headwind and hold off a chasing pack with support riders for 30 km. Not Ala, not VdP, not Rog, not WvA.

2. He will need a team that can wear down more of the other team's support riders. If he can get away when it's nothing but other team leaders or maybe one lieutenant left, that will improve his chances in these types of raids.

my 2 cents.

Vervaeke and Vansevanant looked good but the pace of the peloton was quite restrained on La Redoubte as the head of the race increased his lead on that climb.
Maybe Van Vilder would be good in that role but I haven't seen enough of him to know but @Logic-is-your-friend would.....

 

[Bonimenier]

Vervaeke and Vansevanant looked good but the pace of the peloton was quite restrained on La Redoubte as the head of the race increased his lead on that climb.
Maybe Van Vilder would be good in that role but I haven't seen enough of him to know but @Logic-is-your-friend would.....

Forget Van Wilder. Masnada would tear the group apart and ride away with Remco.

 

[Flurk1982]

Forget Van Wilder. Masnada would tear the group apart and ride away with Remco.

Don't underestimate Van Wilder. Only 21 years old and in their junior period the best rider after Remco.

 

[AlfaLum]

Don't underestimate Van Wilder. Only 21 years old and in their junior period the best rider after Remco.

I think that statement is very debatable. Evenepoel was multiple levels above everybody else including van Wilder.

But van Wilder was not really better than his competitors back then.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think that statement is very debatable. Evenepoel was multiple levels above everybody else including van Wilder.

But van Wilder was not really better than his competitors back then.

He was, overall. But indeed, a level below Evenepoel.

He was 2nd in season points behind Evenepoel, with a total that would put him on top in many other years. Then think about the extra points he would have had without Evenepoel taking top spot, and without him having to work for Evenepoel in nation cup races.

But it's easier to remember Vacek, because he actually beat Evenepoel two or three times. To be completely MIA in most other races.

Iirc, Van Wilder also had much better results than others born in 2000, in their first junior year.

 

[Savant12]

The positioning and chase behind Remco was weak. Enric Mas/Jack Haig pulling on the flat? Come on?!
They were never going to catch Remco after their poor showing on Roche Aux Faucons.
It was a good attack but all the other "hitters" in the race were idiots for not being closer to the front.

 

[Big Doopie]

The positioning and chase behind Remco was weak. Enric Mas/Jack Haig pulling on the flat? Come on?!
They were never going to catch Remco after their poor showing on Roche Aux Faucons.
It was a good attack but all the other "hitters" in the race were idiots for not being closer to the front.

that was a downright hysterical post. you funny! thank you.

literally, every single pro rider who was in the race said it was an amazing ride. but somehow you know they were idiots and weak. hysterical. oh my, thank you so much.

all the other "hitters" couldn't follow on Redoute, then rested behind their teammates for 16 km while Remco rode alone into a headwind. and when they finally went, they went into the red after pulling back about 12 seconds.

these guys got it pretty spot on:

View: https://youtu.be/rkoLgGXSDAw

 

[Savant12]

I'm sorry if my opinion is too much for the Remco fanboys to handle.

I'm sorry that I'm not agreeing that his attack and win is the greatest since the invention of the bicycle.

You guys are too much!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The positioning and chase behind Remco was weak. Enric Mas/Jack Haig pulling on the flat? Come on?!
They were never going to catch Remco after their poor showing on Roche Aux Faucons.
It was a good attack but all the other "hitters" in the race were idiots for not being closer to the front.

In the video i posted where you see Evenepoel attack and then Martinez getting a mechanical, you can see Teuns next to Fuglsang just a few meters behind Powless who was actually next to Evenepoel when he attacked. Just a few meters further back you have Van Aert and other big names. Not everybody can be in the wheel of every other contender especially on a narrow road. Had they all been in Evenepoel's wheel and it were Mohoric who attacked i'm sure you'd call them idiots for letting Mohoric go.

Exactly who would you have liked to see chase on the flat? You're right, they weren't going to catch Evenepoel. Nobody was, regardless of who was doing the chase. There were no real teams left, only a few half-cooked domestiques like Poels, Haig, and some co-leaders, who could possibly have stood up to Evenepoel. Basically the only two guys with enough of an engine to reel him back in from that group, where Van Aert and Mohoric. Van Aert had no teammates left and had zero reason to start doing the work, especially considering others had teammates, Van Aert has a sprint, and Roche aux Faucons was still to come. While Mohoric blew up before Roche aux Faucons. So whom exactly of these ''idiots'' should have closed the gap down on the flat? You think they all should have worked together to get Evenepoel back, not to forget into a severe headwind and roll out the red carpet for Van Aert?

I'm sorry if my opinion is too much for the Remco fanboys to handle.

I'm sorry that I'm not agreeing that his attack and win is the greatest since the invention of the bicycle.

You guys are too much!

Well, you post some stupid theory you obviously didn't think through, calling people idiots. You could expect to get some flak.

 

[Savant12]

I called the riders idiots, as did others on this thread.

Theory? No, it was an opinion which when it seems to counter something to the Remco fanboys is met with contempt and ridicule. And childish "Haha" of posts.

Again, you guys are too much!

 

[AlfaLum]

He was, overall. But indeed, a level below Evenepoel.

He was 2nd in season points behind Evenepoel, with a total that would put him on top in many other years. Then think about the extra points he would have had without Evenepoel taking top spot, and without him having to work for Evenepoel in nation cup races.

But it's easier to remember Vacek, because he actually beat Evenepoel two or three times. To be completely MIA in most other races.

Iirc, Van Wilder also had much better results than others born in 2000, in their first junior year.

It is a very difficult discussion for me. Points is one thing, but it doesn’t totally reflect quality there. For example for me Carlos Rodriguez had also shown a lot already that year as a junior, but the Spanish guys just race a lot on home soil, with less points.

In the few races he raced Ghirmay also made a very good impression, when beating Evenepoel in his first race in Europe.

Skjelmose Jensen also had good result, but also raced for less than Van Wilder that season. So while I would say that van Wilder definitely was one of the best that year, I don’t think he really proved that he was at another level from some of the other guys, even though the ranking would show that.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Literally was an article a while back of, I don't remember who, but also an ex classics specialist. Who said the big moves are made on top of a climb, not on the climb. Because at the top everyone is near their limit and tries to recover. The ones who can attack there are super strong.

It was Museeuw.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Not the whole climb, but with Ala out and Vansevenant (?) taking the charge with Evenepoel on his wheel at that point in the race, you'd have to be a complete moron not to detect the sent of sulphur in the air as the prelude to imminent explosion.

I agree, beautiful "imagery" you wrote down.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Liege nowadays is all about Roche aux faucons. That's why I don't see WVA or Remco winning. WVA can not follow the most explosive attacks there, and remoc will be dropped.


I also don't see Alaphilippe, in 3 days, suddenly gaining the legs to drop the best climbers there. Valverde also probably won't decide the selection.

So it probably comes down to whether Alaphilippe or Valverde can follow the strongest attacks on that climb .

If I had a really strong climber in my team, I would focus on bringing him into the Faucons as fresh as possible. Ineos have Martinez. Bora have Vlasov. Bahrain has cards here with Teuns, Poels and Landa. Vingegaard also could do something. All those riders have the chance of going solo.

My prediction: Romain Bardet attacks from the chaos over Roche aux Faucons and win solo. Valverde sprints to 2nd behind ahead of Valsov

I think you should go back to the primary cycling school. "Nowadays is all about Roche aux faucons". "I don't see Remco winning.. "and Remco will be dropped".

For sure, predict a race is not that easy. But not attribute any chance to someone (Evenepoel), while that race is made for him, shows little cycling knowledge.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

A Remco solo win from La Redoute is imminent

Tribute to the good forecaster !

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It is a very difficult discussion for me. Points is one thing, but it doesn’t totally reflect quality there. For example for me Carlos Rodriguez had also shown a lot already that year as a junior, but the Spanish guys just race a lot on home soil, with less points.

In the few races he raced Ghirmay also made a very good impression, when beating Evenepoel in his first race in Europe.

Skjelmose Jensen also had good result, but also raced for less than Van Wilder that season. So while I would say that van Wilder definitely was one of the best that year, I don’t think he really proved that he was at another level from some of the other guys, even though the ranking would show that.

I would agree he wasn't on another level, but he proved to consistently throughout his 2 junior years be among the best. Which is something none of the others were able to do. There is a reason Skjelmose didn't race any more than he did, but that's a discussion for another part of the forum. Rodriguez is a year younger so he wouldn't have been a factor. Then in his first U23 year, he already was racking up top 5's in GC against riders 2 or 3 years older. He was third in Avenir (while a mechanical had him lose time on two accounts), with the winner being 3 years older. Before joining DSM, he consistently was one of the top performers for the past 3 years.

I called the riders idiots, as did others on this thread.

Theory? No, it was an opinion which when it seems to counter something to the Remco fanboys is met with contempt and ridicule. And childish "Haha" of posts.

Again, you guys are too much!

Ok. So who would you have liked to see closing the gap? The fact that the bunch was large until they started Roche aux Faucons, where there were no attacks early on, yet 2/3rds (just guessing) of the bunch dropped regardless, shows that those guys were out of gas. At that point they were 240km into the race. Mohoric, among contenders in previous editions, winner of MSR and very possibly the only guy better than Van Baarle in Roubaix, was dead. The bunch was constantly stretched, they weren't softpedaling, but those who could sacrifice themselves didn't have the legs, and those aiming to go all the way needed to save their energy for Roche aux Faucons, which showed to be not enough. According to Strava they closed 19s on that climb. Had the domestiques been able to reduce the gap to 20-25 seconds before RaF, they might have been able to bridge. But if the guys who needed to jump on RaF would have done the work on the flat, then they wouldn't have been able to climb RaF 19 seconds faster either. Bottom line, it wasn't going to happen because he was too strong that late in the race, and the others lacked the domestiques to reel him back in.

People forget there was a headwind and that none in the chase are as aero as Evenepoel. People forget the race at the point of the attack had been going on for 230k. Riders like Woods and Van Aert have said in post-race interviews the pace was set very high in the chase. The only point of valid criticism is that nobody was in his wheel, well apart from Powless who couldn't follow longer than a few seconds. But the road was narrow, and the other guys really weren't that far when you check all the footage. Nobody could or nobody wanted to close him down immediately as energy management is crucial that late in the race. Powless tried, Fuglsang tried. The chase got organized (Bahrain) very quickly. We're talking about maybe 10 seconds after his attack.