114th Il Lombardia (1.UWT) // 15th of August 2020

[tobydawq]

Pinot was flying that fall, while Nibali was scrambling to regain form.

Fuglsang was the clear favorite based on Alaphilippe barely beating him on the Mur despite being way, way more explosive.

Exactly.

Pinot had ruled the final week of the Vuelta, the World(s) (except for unlucky team tactics) and been unstoppable on the Superga climb in Milano-Torino just days before and was clearly the rider to beat.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Hm, kind of I guess. But one-day-races are always a gamble. Even if there's an overwhelming favourite, like Cancellara in some Flanders/Roubaix, I'd usually take the field over him in a bet.

Like others have said, if you beat Fuglsang, Nibali, Carapaz... here, it's likely because you are better. In spring classics it's much harder for a favorite to win and chances of an outsider to win are much bigger, due to an early break, team tactics etc. Domestiques can play a much more important role later in the final, or even win. The favorite can miss the decisive break, puncture a few times or get outplayed tactically. In a race like Lombardia, with everyone at their limit, tactics are a luxury.

 

[BlueRoads]

Actually we did. In Pologne Evenepoel humiliated Fuglsang in the queen stage... 1m48 the difference

Yes, I do now know. Don't rub salt into my wound, please.

 

[Blanco]

Pinot was flying that fall, while Nibali was scrambling to regain form.

Fuglsang was the clear favorite based on Alaphilippe barely beating him on the Mur despite being way, way more explosive.

Some of us believed that, but for example oddschecker odds were: Alaphilippe 9/4, Fuglsang 4/1.
And yes Pinot was flying, but we became aware of that only after Lombardia. He was no clear cut favorite also. Valverde, Nibali, Bardet, Moscon, Uran were all among the favorites.

 

[Rollthedice]

Some of us believed that, but for example oddschecker odds were: Alaphilippe 9/4, Fuglsang 4/1.
And yes Pinot was flying, but we became aware of that only after Lombardia. He was no clear cut favorite also. Valverde, Nibali, Bardet, Moscon, Uran were all among the favorites.

I am pretty sure that when Nibali attacked on Muro di Sormano, the last rider he wanted to join him was Pino.

 

[fuiers]

Too bad. Matthews out with hand injury. I was expecting to see him race. Podium in MSR and I was gonna root for him.

 

[Red Rick]

I am pretty sure that when Nibali attacked on Muro di Sormano, the last rider he wanted to join him was Pino.

Tbh if he goes alone there he swims to shallow waters together with Roglic.

 

[Alexandre B.]

That’s quite a depressing startlist, to be honest.

 

[jaylew]

Nibali, Mollema, Fuglsang, Woods, Carapaz, Aru and Majka is still a very solid list of contenders, and about right for Lombardia. Unless you're talking overall field depth?

I don't even know what to say to that. Suffice it to say, I don't agree.

 

[KZD]

Too bad. Matthews out with hand injury. I was expecting to see him race. Podium in MSR and I was gonna root for him.

Lombardia is way too hard for him

 

[jaylew]

I didn't see anyone complain when Fuglsang won last year's LBL. "Oh, no Bernal, no Roglic, no Mollema, no Buchmann... so it doesn't really count!"

I haven't seen one person in this thread say that. Several of us have pointed out the field is super weak, that's it. I get why that is but it's still a shame. It's obviously a strange year and we might see some strange or different racing and results but I haven't seen anyone say a win this year won't count.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Il Lombardia is probably the hilly classic I am most looking forward to this year because of the field. Usually I find it to be a rather depressing race to watch, with big super stars often only riding it for showing off the jersey and not really in form. In this edition everyone will be as motivated as ever to win the race.

But to each their own.

 

[Leinster]

Il Lombardia is probably the hilly classic I am most looking forward to this year because of the field. Usually I find it to be a rather depressing race to watch, with big super stars often only riding it for showing off the jersey and not really in form. In this edition everyone will be as motivated as ever to win the race.

But to each their own.

I think it's perfectly reasonable that, to pick one aspect, a lot of people would wish that a few more of the still-active former winners of the race (Gilbert, Martin, Pinot, Chaves) would show up, instead of the riders that those teams have sent instead (Wellens, Hermans, Brunel(?), Nieve), Mollema for Nibali being the only fair substitution there.

Also, that some riders, like Formolo, Yates, Lopez, Benoot, etc are riding the Dauphine as at best a team-building exercise to help them push for a possible stage win or anonymous top10 in Paris, when there might be something big to be had in Como.



I hope Ineos allow Kwiatkowski to go all-in for Liege after the Tour. And give him the support to do it, too.

 

[tobydawq]

Why the hell is Simon Yates off the start list now?

 

[BlueRoads]

I think it's perfectly reasonable that, to pick one aspect, a lot of people would wish that a few more of the still-active former winners of the race (Gilbert, Martin, Pinot, Chaves) would show up, instead of the riders that those teams have sent instead (Wellens, Hermans, Brunel(?), Nieve), Mollema for Nibali being the only fair substitution there.

Also, that some riders, like Formolo, Yates, Lopez, Benoot, etc are riding the Dauphine as at best a team-building exercise to help them push for a possible stage win or anonymous top10 in Paris, when there might be something big to be had in Como.



I hope Ineos allow Kwiatkowski to go all-in for Liege after the Tour. And give him the support to do it, too.

Honestly I hope we will see a race in which teams come up with some strategies how to deal with Evenepoel. Otherwise I would really say - why would they desperately want to go to a race where only second is to be gained?

In LBL Evenepoel won't be there, right? But I don't think Kwiatkowski has much of a chance there, these days, either...

 

[Dazed and Confused]

Il Lombardia is probably the hilly classic I am most looking forward to this year because of the field. Usually I find it to be a rather depressing race to watch, with big super stars often only riding it for showing off the jersey and not really in form. In this edition everyone will be as motivated as ever to win the race.

But to each their own.

I absolutely agree. Racing will be much more intense than usual. Higher level.

Now if Mollema can go two for two.....

 

[tobydawq]

I absolutely agree. Racing will be much more intense than usual. Higher level.

Now if Mollema can go two for two.....

Yeah, more intense and higher level doesn't make sense here but alright...

Edit: Oh, it's you... Sorry to have wasted your time by interacting with you.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah, more intense and higher level doesn't make sense here but alright...

Edit: Oh, it's you... Sorry to have wasted your time by interacting with you.

The big guys riding Il Lombardia are (except for Mollema) not riding the Tour. These are the guys taking the Giro route, the one with fewer season goals. No Dauphiné, no Tour, no spring classics, no Vuelta. With the Worlds also getting axed and the Olympics gone, that doesn't leave much else. Motivation will be skyhigh, even if the field could have been higher quality, the riders that will be there will certainly go for it. Teams need the exposure as well. And, they'll all be fresh. Season has just started unlike other years, where you get a peloton of cycling corpses. No other big goal in sight, so we could very well see some guys take some chances they might otherwise not take. Who knows, we could see an early breakaway with van der Poel, Ulissi, Schachmann and some guys like that. With DQS not strong enough to respond to every attack, we could see interesting scenario's unfold. As such, you could argue that the level of the race might actually not be worse, i think this is what they mean.

Well, we'll know in a few hours. It could be one of the most entertaining, open Lombardia's in a while. But it could be complete *** as well, if one guy toys with the rest because there is not enough opposition.

 

[BlueRoads]

I need a great Lombardia to get over this evening.

 

[tobydawq]

I need a great Lombardia to get over this evening.

I h8-2 break it to you, but it will just be an Evenepoel procession

 

[BlueRoads]

I h8-2 break it to you, but it will just be an Evenepoel procession

 

[search]

I think it's perfectly reasonable that, to pick one aspect, a lot of people would wish that a few more of the still-active former winners of the race (Gilbert, Martin, Pinot, Chaves) would show up, instead of the riders that those teams have sent instead (Wellens, Hermans, Brunel(?), Nieve)

Nieve for example has a far better record than any Yates brother though, having finished 6th, 7th and 8th in Lombardia. And Groupama is going for Molard (10th last year), who could very well finish Top 5 as well.

Sure, they are unlikely to win, but it's not that bad

 

[Leinster]

In LBL Evenepoel won't be there, right? But I don't think Kwiatkowski has much of a chance there, these days, either...

LBL clashes with the Giro, so Remco can't be there.

I see no reason why Kwiatkowski can't win Liege. He's been on the podium before (twice), the new finish arguably suits him better, he won Strade Bianche and MSR as a Sky rider so his GT domestique duties haven't harmed his classics ambitions. A lot will depend on who rides it this year.

 

[red_flanders]

Personally, I'm going to wait until the race starts to start griping about it. Who's in?!

 

[Gigs_98]

It would be kinda nice to see a winner from Spain or the UK btw, as those were the countries in Europe hit hardest by this seemingly unstoppable force.

That unstoppable force being FC Bayern obvsly.