1st rest day poll: who will win the Tour?

[SafeBet]

We're 9 days into the race and plenty of riders are still within 2-3 minutes from the yellow jersey.
Richie Porte is the only contender who has abandoned the race.

So who do you think will win the Tour? (I ranked the options according to the bookies, I'll add the others option later).

 

[AlexNYC]

If this is indeed ordered according to the bookies, Adam Yates is a really good bet right now (although I don't think he'll win).

 

[SafeBet]

Re:

If this is indeed ordered according to the bookies, Adam Yates is a really good bet right now (although I don't think he'll win).

I believe there are even better odds, Zakarin for instance. Or Jungels.

 

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

If this is indeed ordered according to the bookies, Adam Yates is a really good bet right now (although I don't think he'll win).

I believe there are even better odds, Zakarin for instance. Or Jungels.

Hmm. The problem with those two is that I can't fathom any scenario under which either of them would actually win. Yates, on the other hand, is a dark horse for the final win right now, in my opinion.

Also, Roglic!

 

[Escarabajo]

Is this one of those cases of the bookies completely missing it with Thomas?
I just can't imagine him winning.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Is this one of those cases of the bookies completely missing it with Thomas?
I just can't imagine him winning.

He has a minute advantage on almost everyone relevant and most importantly on Froome. Froome has to drop Thomas big time at least once cause Froome might be the leader but Thomas won't drop on purpose. I'd say if Thomas climbs like in the dauphine for three weeks Froome is the only one capable of beating him and even that would be difficult

 

[Jspear]

Wow still a lot of faith in Froome. My heart says Nibbes, my head says Quintana.

 

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

Is this one of those cases of the bookies completely missing it with Thomas?
I just can't imagine him winning.

He has a minute advantage on almost everyone relevant and most importantly on Froome. Froome has to drop Thomas big time at least once cause Froome might be the leader but Thomas won't drop on purpose. I'd say if Thomas climbs like in the dauphine for three weeks Froome is the only one capable of beating him and even that would be difficult

I don't know about that. He has become adept at limiting his losses in mountain stages, but he'll start leaking time to the likes of Quintana, Bardet, Landa, and others beginning Tuesday.

I predict Thomas won't even podium if Froome is still around by the end of this Tour.

 

[GuyIncognito]

Re:

Is this one of those cases of the bookies completely missing it with Thomas?
I just can't imagine him winning.

It's not their job to give good odds. It' their job to give odds that they think people will bet motivated to bet on and lose.

 

[dacooley]

Yes, betting on froome with odds of 1.95:1 motivates so much.

 

[spalco]

Re:

Yes, betting on froome with odds of 1.95:1 motivates so much.

Apparently.
Bookies don't give a *** who wins, the goal is to make money regardless of the outcome. If fewer people put money on Froome, his odds would be higher.

Betters are often wrong though, and bet money emotionally. I'm sure for example England's betting odds of winning the World Cup were significantly different from the actual probability.

 

[Laplaz]

The great Primoz Roglic of course.

 

[Red Rick]

Primoz Roglic

 

[Summoned]

Froome's only losses thus far are to a very soft crash, a slight loss in TTT to teams who no longer have serious threats to the overall win (I can see Jungels making the podium only under unusual circumstances), and a few seconds on an uphill finish. I think he is coming in undercooked both as strategy and necessity, and will be ready to finish off the field in the third week.

 

[Sandisfan]

UGH... The BORG, um I mean SKY

 

[SafeBet]

I'm still backing Quintana here but an outsider could steal this Tour. Zakarin is in prime position after surviving the first week without losing much. Remember how strong he was in last year's Giro and Vuelta third weeks. He just needs to stay on his bike.

 

[bambino]

Re:

I'm still backing Quintana here but an outsider could steal this Tour. Zakarin is in prime position after surviving the first week without losing much. Remember how strong he was in last year's Giro and Vuelta third weeks. He just needs to stay on his bike.

Zakarin wasn't even close the strongest rider in last week of either Giro or Vuelta last year.

 

[hfer07]

who else than THE MAGIC KENYAN?

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

There has been basically no meaningful new information about the contenders from the first week.

 

[Koronin]

My heart says Valverde, however my head says he'll get his usual, normal GC top 10 regardless of rather Movistar's ideas and tactics actually work or not.

 

[The Hegelian]

Quintana. I believe in the Giro-fade. Nibali to be the closest challenger.

 

[jfazendeiro]

Re:

If this is indeed ordered according to the bookies, Adam Yates is a really good bet right now (although I don't think he'll win).

I consulted the Tour de France odds since the beggining of the year. At least till May he had more than a 1/70 reward. I didn't place any bet but considered him a favourite at the start. After the Arras-Roubaix stage, I see him able to gain more time in the mountains than he will lose in the time-trial to Froome. To N.Quintana he has an advantage of 1:08 and about 10-20 seconds more in the time-trial trial, which might be enough.

 

[Red Rick]

Really at this point it looks like the best climber in the race will take it.

Froome has ridden the Giro

If Quintana can't burn him now, he will never win the Tour de France.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Nairo Quintana is my favourite to win the race now despite the lost time. What I have seen from him this race has been brilliant - lets wait and see if he deceived us like in 2016 where his form should have been formidable, but in reality super disappointing.

An outsider can win and there's literally 5-10 of them: Roglic, Fuglsang, Valverde, Yates...

 

[AlexNYC]

Re:

Really at this point it looks like the best climber in the race will take it.

Froome has ridden the Giro

If Quintana can't burn him now, he will never win the Tour de France.

In my opinion, Quintana's biggest obstacle won't be Froome, but the likes of Yates and Landa who are really good climbers and already have a lot of time on him.

I didn't think Landa would be a challenge for Nairo at the beginning of the Tour, but the fact that he got through the first 9 stages relatively unscathed gives him a huge advantage.