luckyboy said:
If Wiggins can hold on for the win, I don't expect to see a lot from him in July.
Dauphine win and 3rd at PN would be a great season anyway.
Having read bits of this thread today, I can't help but feel that whilst Brad isn't a 4th in the TDF level guy, he's being written off a bit too much, especially considering the level of competition at the race this year, which is frankly pathetic.
To win he needs to hold off Vino, Evans, Jani & VDB (if Jurgen tries - which I do not expect). I don't expect any of them to top 5 the tour this year (with the exception of perhaps VDB, but by no means certain), so the level of competition here is pretty weak, despite all the creepy pseudo fanboyism for old man Vino.
A large part of Brad's perceived crap climbing has been mental - since he stuffed the tour up last year, he's given up very easily, if indeed he even tries to begin with. He now seems to be moving past that, and certainly has something to hold on to here, so I expect him to be relatively solid, especially with a strong team around him. He might not win, but he equally, he might, and it would not be the shock several people seem to suggest.
All in all, I'd say anything longer than 3-1 for him to win from here would be an excellent value bet.