2011 Giro di Lombardia

[El Pistolero]

4km long.


And last year's race had the Ghisallo + short descent + Colma di Sormano, then 32km flat to Como with the short San Fermo climb first. That is not much easier than this.

People are expecting a 32km solo from Nibali and Jrod it seems

These guys already struggle with a 2km solo lol.

 

[Descender]

Don't get me wrong, if the best climbers in the world came here and climbed the Colma dir Sormano or the Valcava a bloc and had the balls to do it and ride till the end, Gilbert would have zero chances. But that is not going to be the case any time soon.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

People are expecting a 32km solo from Nibali and Jrod it seems

These guys already struggle with a 2km solo lol.

32km solo might be a bit much, but I think you're a bit unfair on the Shark's TT there.

There is no way on earth it's in the same calibre of hilarious dreadfulness as Rodríguez'.

 

[Parrulo]

People are expecting a 32km solo from Nibali and Jrod it seems

These guys already struggle with a 2km solo lol.

if you actually took some time to read my post i never mentioned a solo attack. i said the stronger climbers may attack and drop gilbert and then form a GROUP that stays away on the flat.

funny enough gilbert isn't exactly the master of solo efforts either is he?

 

[Duartista]

Don't get me wrong, if the best climbers in the world came here and climbed the Colma dir Sormano or the Valcava a bloc and had the balls to do it and ride till the end, Gilbert would have zero chances. But that is not going to be the case any time soon.

Aren't Euskaltel planning to bring Sanchez, Anton and Nieve as they bid to get some vital WT points? If so, them and Liquigas with Basso and Nibali, plus Lampre with Cunego and Scarponi, would present at the very least a sizeable obstacle to Gilbert's chances of bridging a gap on the descent/flat.

 

[El Pistolero]

if you actually took some time to read my post i never mentioned a solo attack. i said the stronger climbers may attack and drop gilbert and then form a GROUP that stays away on the flat.

funny enough gilbert isn't exactly the master of solo efforts either is he?

Tell me one person who had more solo wins this year than Gilbert

If you compare Gilbert to Cancellara in solo efforts than he's a nobody
Compare him to anyone else and you won't see many people who can do it better

Phil has plenty of solo wins already by the way

Omloop het Volk 2006 and 2008
Clasica San Sebastian
Giro di Lombardia 2010 was mostly a solo ride and a solo finish
Queen stage at the Eneco Tour this year
Queen stage at the Tour of Belgium this year everyone was sitting on his wheel and Phil still won the final sprint
Amstel Gold Race 2010: everyone was sitting on his wheel in the final waiting for him to reel Andy Schleck back in and guess what? He still outkicked them on the Cauberg
National time trial championships: not the best of competition, but still beat Monfort, De Gendt and Cornu
He also has multiple top tens in long time trials at the Vuelta
At the Tour de France this year he stayed ahead of a hunting peloton in the stage Thor Hushovd won

 

[El Pistolero]

Aren't Euskaltel planning to bring Sanchez, Anton and Nieve as they bid to get some vital WT points? If so, them and Liquigas with Basso and Nibali, plus Lampre with Cunego and Scarponi, would present at the very least a sizeable obstacle to Gilbert's chances of bridging a gap on the descent/flat.

Yeah, but they're also doing Tour of Beijing, so that may tire them out a bit.

 

[roundabout]

It's not impossible that there can be a 2005/2006-like edition where the small elite group is formed quite early and cooperates very well so that the rest have little chance but I don't believe that it's likely.

 

[Havetts]

With that climb possibly being in it makes me cry even more Gesink is so darn unlucky .

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Tell me one person who had more solo wins this year than Gilbert

I don't know whether he matches up to Gilbert, but a lot of Mahdi Sohrabi's wins have been either solo or in small groups.

And was the peloton REALLY hunting on the stage Hushovd won into Lourdes? That ride really didn't show that much other than that Gilbert was still interested in the maillot vert.

 

[zapata]

Tell me one person who had more solo wins this year than Gilbert

If you compare Gilbert to Cancellara in solo efforts than he's a nobody
Compare him to anyone else and you won't see many people who can do it better

Phil has plenty of solo wins already by the way

Omloop het Volk 2006 and 2008
Clasica San Sebastian
Giro di Lombardia 2010 was mostly a solo ride and a solo finish
Queen stage at the Eneco Tour this year
Queen stage at the Tour of Belgium this year everyone was sitting on his wheel and Phil still won the final sprint
Amstel Gold Race 2010: everyone was sitting on his wheel in the final waiting for him to reel Andy Schleck back in and guess what? He still outkicked them on the Cauberg
National time trial championships: not the best of competition, but still beat Monfort, De Gendt and Cornu
He also has multiple top tens in long time trials at the Vuelta
At the Tour de France this year he stayed ahead of a hunting peloton in the stage Thor Hushovd won

Het Volk 2008 was awesome. I'd like to see more races won like that. Also, I'd really like to see someone other than Gilbert win Lombardia..If the rumours about Valcava are true, and the real climbers dare to do something on it, it might be very interesting racing. Even if Flip does come back and wins it, it should be more exciting than him just sprinting up a short hill in the end.

Edit: also, I'll be rooting for Nibali. I assume he's riding?

 

[El Pistolero]

I don't know whether he matches up to Gilbert, but a lot of Mahdi Sohrabi's wins have been either solo or in small groups.

And was the peloton REALLY hunting on the stage Hushovd won into Lourdes? That ride really didn't show that much other than that Gilbert was still interested in the maillot vert.

Movistar was hunting.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Movistar was hunting.

When was the last time an Abarcá Sports hunt for the sprint in a major race was successful? Catalunya?

 

[El Pistolero]

When was the last time an Abarcá Sports hunt for the sprint in a major race was successful? Catalunya?

Well, that's contradictive.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Well, that's contradictive.

Probably, yes. But it's also illustrative. It's the nearest thing to a big race they've managed to do that successfully at since the days when they were setting up Valverde (and even then it sometimes went awry).

 

[veganrob]

Whereas in past editions Gilbert was a danger. Now he is a marked man. He is on everyones mind. Riders will work together now just to beat him.

 

[El Pistolero]

Whereas in past editions Gilbert was a danger. Now he is a marked man. He is on everyones mind. Riders will work together now just to beat him.

That worked well in the Amstel Gold Race, Liége-Bastogne-Liége, Clasica San Sebastian and the GP Québec.

 

[AussieGoddess]

even if the climb is super hard .... I still think Phil is in with a chance to defend.

He is looking to finish off his season - and why wouldnt he. Its not like he is going to have a season like this every year, make the most of the super form and win everything you can.

BUT ... climbs that hard will still be ok for him I think. He just needs to stay with them on the climb. He wont be doing any work, just trying to hang in there - and in the Pyrenees this year he managed quite ok on some of the harder climbs so they arent beyond him.

 

[Ferminal]

if that climb is in the race gilbert surely won't win if the front guys are organized.

I was adamant that Gilbert would struggle last year with the Sormano (a genuine Cat 1) but it played right into Gilbert's hands as none of the big guns pushed the pace.

 

[veganrob]

That worked well in the Amstel Gold Race, Liége-Bastogne-Liége, Clasica San Sebastian and the GP Québec.

Don't think the other riders were actively riding against him in the earlier races. He has now however reached Canc like status, and you know what happened to him in the Classics. We shall see. Anyways it should be a great race.

 

[The Hitch]

I hope Gilbert finally gets the Cancellara treatment from other riders and teams.

 

[Parrulo]

I was adamant that Gilbert would struggle last year with the Sormano (a genuine Cat 1) but it played right into Gilbert's hands as none of the big guns pushed the pace.

thats true but last year gilbert wasn't the dominant force he is this year so riders like nibali, scarponi and basso will know that they can't beat him on the hills so they will have to attack on the bigger climbs.

i am just trying to find an alternative to the obvious "gilbert will win" prediction

 

[Lupetto]

 

[Duartista]

Oh. Looks like Gilbert will win with few problems after all.

 

[Eshnar]

Gilbert has this in the bag...