2011 TDF: Stage 19 - Modane - Alpe-dÂ’Huez

[Libertine Seguros]

Everything went according to plan, didnt it?

Yup, Prudhomme got his final week showdown, Cav got green, a GC man got polka, and the first two weeks were irrelevant in more or less every way other than a whole bunch of people crashed out.

But because it all went according to plan, we'll get future Tours designed like this, and because it finished with a bang, people will forget just how irrelevant stages 1-15 really were. Though admittedly the riders contributed to that on stages 12-14.

But we might just be having one of the best one-week stage races of the year.

 

[El Pistolero]

Isn't it nice that the GC battle has finally ignited?

Oh. The race finishes in two days.

I hate Christian Prudhomme.

It's not Prudhomme's fault the pussies didn't do anything on stage 12 and 14.

 

[BYOP88]

Tommy V and Evans, please don't let me down.

 

[xmoonx]

I don't think Evans will try to pull Frank back. Even if he's strong, I think he'll be perfectly happy riding a lesser pace to keep Frank at 1 minute as opposed to killing himself to bring him back. Looking at it from Evans' perspective, Having both Andy and Frank a minute up going into the ITT doesn't change things for him... he'd still have to beat Andy by a minute to win it. Frank's TT means he'd have to gain 2 minutes tomorrow to possibly threaten as much as Andy is right now.

Very true this; tomorrow is Cadels turn to sit on Voecklers wheel. What goes around comes around.

 

[Ramira]

Very true this; tomorrow is Cadels turn to sit on Voecklers wheel. What goes around comes around.

If he does that he might as well give the Schleck brothers the Yellow jersey right now, there's absolutely no way Voeckler will manage to stay with them if he has to do all the work.

 

[roundabout]

I think that the strongest today was Cadel, and he will be tomorrow as well. He took 2 mins out of Andy today on the last climb. Tomorrow he will mark andy and that should be enough???

Evans was very strong on the final climb and he is one of the more consistent riders in this Tour. But tomorrow is another day.

 

[jsem94]

I wonder how Conti will do

 

[musorowegudo]

Contadore will do what Sastra done a few years ago just hope Cadel can go with him All organised by Riis

AC is a spent horse! Gotta wait for 2012, or CAS recommendation, whatever is shorter! Dropped by Pierre Rolland!!?

 

[skidmark]

So many question marks. How does Andy feel after today? Cadel? Voeckler? Frank? Who the hell knows...

Obviously, if it's all together at the bottom of the Alpe, Frank goes on the attack ala Sastre 2008. But what will happen after that? Or what will happen before that? If ASchleck is wiped from his efforts, will LeOpard not whittle the peloton on the first 2 climbs like they have been? Will someone else attack? Will Contador have the will/legs to look for redemption via a stage win? Will a break be allowed to go because everyone's so tired?

I have no idea what's going to happen. And I'm so excited.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

What were the specifications of that avatar bet with ACF? You said Gesink would podium and beat Cadel by 3 minutes barring injuries.

Seems you are lucky Gesink had his crash. He wasnt going to beat Cadel by 3 minutes

You will never know that. I know it's unlikely but never say never. For all we know he had god awesome form and would destroy the rest in the mountains. You simply don't know.

For the same reason JvdB is shouting from the hospital he could have won the Tour. Saying he just 'felt it' etcetera...
Never say never, dangerous.

 

[luckyboy]

Obviously, if it's all together at the bottom of the Alpe, Frank goes on the attack ala Sastre 2008.

This will happen and Cadel will grind people off his wheel again, including Andy.

 

[panache]

I wonder how Conti will do

A relatively short, explosive stage against rivals that are also pretty tired. I think AC makes this interesting tomorrow, though the overall task is quite large to overcome. I predict he takes back 1:35 back from Andy and wins the stage.

 

[taiwan]

Not a good idea for Frank to attack. If he gets a minute and more, Evans could still jump both brothers in the chrono. it has to be Andy that goes.

 

[Bennyl]

Cadel personally dragged back 2:10 on Andy in the final climb last night... does that mean he is the number 1 climber in the tour? Does that mean he's climbing better than Andy?

Obviously not as AS spent 60 kms with no more than 4 other guys during that time, however, I doubt that he could've dropped Cadel last night if they were together. And yes, Andy cracked in the last km, whilst Cadel was still putting in efforts. Really looking forward to tonights stage.

 

[icefire]

Yup, Prudhomme got his final week showdown, Cav got green, a GC man got polka, and the first two weeks were irrelevant in more or less every way other than a whole bunch of people crashed out.

But because it all went according to plan, we'll get future Tours designed like this, and because it finished with a bang, people will forget just how irrelevant stages 1-15 really were. Though admittedly the riders contributed to that on stages 12-14.

But we might just be having one of the best one-week stage races of the year.

Yeah, this just shows that UCI is right and GT's should be shorter

Wait, GT's other than the Tour

 

[Tuarts]

Yup, Prudhomme got his final week showdown, Cav got green, a GC man got polka, and the first two weeks were irrelevant in more or less every way other than a whole bunch of people crashed out.

But because it all went according to plan, we'll get future Tours designed like this, and because it finished with a bang, people will forget just how irrelevant stages 1-15 really were. Though admittedly the riders contributed to that on stages 12-14.

But we might just be having one of the best one-week stage races of the year.

Perfect parcours but as you say, nothing to 12-14 is epic fail. Stage 7/8 needed to be at least a mountain stage ala 16/17. Oh and a prologue

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yup, Prudhomme got his final week showdown, Cav got green, a GC man got polka, and the first two weeks were irrelevant in more or less every way other than a whole bunch of people crashed out.

But because it all went according to plan, we'll get future Tours designed like this, and because it finished with a bang, people will forget just how irrelevant stages 1-15 really were. Though admittedly the riders contributed to that on stages 12-14.

But we might just be having one of the best one-week stage races of the year.

Finally someone saying how it really is.
All this best tour ever just because we had 1 really great stage.

And thanks to Contador the past few stages were good too (because otherwise they would be unused!!)

The first 2 weeks however were pure misery and we lost 70% of the guys that could have made this Tour a lot better.
This is nothing great.

And they kept the tension, by having no great stages until now. Wow, no miracle. Next year please a mountain in week 1. Or at least a 40km/50km TT in week 1.

That will sort contenders from pretenders much earlier.

 

[Bennyl]

so just clarifying - you are saying the Tour hasn't been great because of the nature of riding from the GT contenders???

I think for those who like the Tour for the many different facets and contests it provides, it has been good. Its an event. Not a 3 week uphill race.

We've had Thor, Gilbert, Cav, Eddy fighting for points, wins. Breakaways have won, and apart from the Pyrenees which were disappointing due to the the everyone wondering about the real condition of Alberto (and he is that good that riders should be cautious) and the Schlecks employing poor tactics, I haven't minded the battle for overall.

I will say though, Wiggans, Van Den Broek, Gesink and Radioshack would've made it even more exciting - especially yesterday as it would not have been a battle between 2 riders only.

 

[BYOP88]

so just clarifying - you are saying the Tour hasn't been great because of the nature of riding from the GT contenders???


I think for those who like the Tour for the many different facets and contests it provides, it has been good. Its an event. Not a 3 week uphill race.

We've had Thor, Gilbert, Cav, Eddy fighting for points, wins. Breakaways have won, and apart from the Pyrenees which were disappointing due to the the everyone wondering about the real condition of Alberto (and he is that good that riders should be cautious) and the Schlecks employing poor tactics, I haven't minded the battle for overall.

I will say though, Wiggans, Van Den Broek, Gesink and Radioshack would've made it even more exciting - especially yesterday as it would not have been a battle between 2 riders only.

Yes, put in a 60km ITT before the 1st mountain stage and that means some GC guys would have to make up time, which would make a more interesting race, surely?

 

[meandmygitane]

Finally someone saying how it really is.
All this best tour ever just because we had 1 really great stage.

And thanks to Contador the past few stages were good too (because otherwise they would be unused!!)

The first 2 weeks however were pure misery and we lost 70% of the guys that could have made this Tour a lot better.
This is nothing great.

And they kept the tension, by having no great stages until now. Wow, no miracle. Next year please a mountain in week 1. Or at least a 40km/50km TT in week 1.

That will sort contenders from pretenders much earlier.

Whole heartedly agree.

After the stage 1 and 4 I thought that this tour was going to be the best for years and years, with GC-riders really trying to get something (like a victory or a few seconds on their rivals) on each stage.

But what a snoozefest it became, thanks Europcar and the rest for not even trying to chase the breakaways.
Andy, Evans and Samuel Sanchez are the only one who have done something for the racing, Contador might have if he weren't exhausted from the Giro.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

so just clarifying - you are saying the Tour hasn't been great because of the nature of riding from the GT contenders???

No. I (we, including Ruben) am (are) saying that the Tour hasn't been great because for 11 stages the only thing even remotely GC-relevant was a TTT short enough that it didn't open up gaps, and crashes. And then, when we finally got to the GC-relevant stages, the GT contenders rode defensively and timidly.

The latter part is the fault of the riders. But 11 days of next-to-nothing is the fault of the organisers. And because you had 11 days of next-to-nothing, everybody still had something to lose, so everybody wanted to be at the front, so you got all those crashes and carnage that removed half the GC field. And for what? We got a couple of pretty interesting short finishes on stages 4 and 8, and that's about it. The rest was just crashing.

There needed to be something GC-relevant earlier in the race. Everybody has interpreted this as me saying "there must be more MTFs". That's nonsense. I know I'm known as sprint hater #1 and a massive mountains person, but a 25-30km ITT like the Cholet one in 2008 would have been vastly superior to the TTT or one of the flat stages in terms of sorting out the field so it was calmer and fewer people crashed out as the péloton wouldn't be so nervous.

We have had some interesting but ultimately irrelevant racing for 2 weeks. Well, actually we haven't. Some of it's been interesting (stages 4, 5, 8, 13) but some of it's been pretty boring. It's been paced horribly (stage 15 on a weekend, whereas we only see the TT and Plateau de Beille, then every other weekend stage is irrelevant to the GC?), even though the same stages in a different order could have produced a historic race.

The thing is, because of the hot finish, people will forget the dullness, because what's freshest in our memory is what we take home from it.

 

[Big Doopie]

andy needs at least a little time on cadel to feel more comfortable (unless his itt is suddenly clinic-supplemented).

frank needs way more time.

cadel needs to mark andy only. let frank go. frank is less explosive and i doubt he will be able to gain that much. andy would also have to be willing to lose the tour to his brother after all the efforts he put forth today. cadel stays on andy and lets basso, smyzd, cunego, etc. do some work hoping for podium. they can't let frank go either.

so cadel needs to mark only andy. if he goes after frank, he will lose the tour. (of course if andy is dropped, then sure, go, go!)

the flip side of that is if frank does not attack it means that andy is not feeling great. they would never risk frank dragging cadel away from andy. if frank doesn't go, cadel should attack andy. ride him off his wheel as he did two stages ago -- and did to most of the peloton today.

the key here is also voeckler. who knows what voeckler can do? can he really be worse than the schlecks at TT-ing? so andy and frank need to take time out of voeckler. frank particularly, if he wants to podium.

voeckler -- needs to stay close to both to stay in contention for the win or podium. so -- unlike today -- voeckler will put rolland to work and should help evans chase.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

There is no telling what will happen tomorrow.

Voeckler - He lost 2:20 to Andy today, but we can't write him off when he can stay with Cadel on the final climb even when Cadel is riding at a pace that is taking time out of Andy. Yes, he went really deep to stay in yellow, but he did that in Pyrenees too, and that didn't cause him to blow up the next day. For whatever reason, he's recovering well. If he finds the right wheel again, and Andy is sufficiently weakened from today's effort, he might be able to keep some of that 15 second lead on Andy and the one minute+ he has on each of Cadel and Frank to hang on to that precious jersey by a yellow thread.

Andy - Given how much time he lost on the final climb today, most of the gain has to be attributed to smart (lucky?) tactics, not necessarily being the strongest. It was great racing, but I just don't think he has another performance like that in him. But tactics could work again, this time using Frank to go ahead and make Cadel pull Andy, until Cadel is sufficiently tired so that Andy can launch a successful attack and take more time out of him.

Frank - He might very well have the most left in the tank to be the strongest for tomorrow. However, to concern Cadel, he has to attack and build significantly on his 4 second lead. But that's also probably the best plan to force Cadel to again do the work tomorrow, only this time pull Andy up the Alpe, leaving Andy with enough fuel to take another minute or more out of Cadel by the finish. But the attack on Cadel could work, leaving Frank ahead, perhaps enough to win the stage, and maybe even pass his brother and Tommy and get the yellow.

Cadel - Pulled everyone today, and made time on Andy while doing it indicating he's the strongest and the best bet, but there's simply no telling how his effort today will affect his performance tomorrow. Plus having to respond to Schleck attacks on both flanks will be extra exhausting. He's in 4th now, the pressure is on just to get back on the podium, much less into yellow.

Contador - Okay, it looks like he's out and if it was just about anyone else he would definitely be, but this is Contador. Maybe he forgot to eat his Wheaties this morning if you know what I mean, and will have a midnight snack tonight to make up for it. I'm also suspicious about the lengthy chat he and Sanchez had at the base of the final climb today, and his sudden decision to back off. Was this tactics to force Cadel to burn out and save for tomorrow? Could that, including the 90 seconds he lost to Cadel at the end, have all been a ruse? I don't expect, but won't be surprised, if he does something special on tomorrow's stage. If he is feeling better, it's not at all inconceivable that he takes out 3:46 on Voeckler, and that will be enough if Tommy also retains his :15 on Andy and minute+ on the others.

 

[davestoller]

so just clarifying - you are saying the Tour hasn't been great because of the nature of riding from the GT contenders???

I think for those who like the Tour for the many different facets and contests it provides, it has been good. Its an event. Not a 3 week uphill race.

We've had Thor, Gilbert, Cav, Eddy fighting for points, wins. Breakaways have won, and apart from the Pyrenees which were disappointing due to the the everyone wondering about the real condition of Alberto (and he is that good that riders should be cautious) and the Schlecks employing poor tactics, I haven't minded the battle for overall.

I will say though, Wiggans, Van Den Broek, Gesink and Radioshack would've made it even more exciting - especially yesterday as it would not have been a battle between 2 riders only.

Yes, I agree.
Exactly.

The GC riders have been a bunch of ***, with HUGE negative riding and waiting and looking.

If Wiggins, Horner, Levi, Kloden were still here, NONE OF THIS BS would have happened.
Contador would be 8 minutes down.
THe Winklevoss twins would have HAD to follow wheels when Horner and Wiggins flipped out in the Pyrenees and dropped everybody.

THere would have been no cute-we planned this all along--BS attack on the Izoard. Because Ten guys would have followed and Andy and Frank would NOT HAVE DROPPED HORNER AND WIGGINS.

 

[woodie]

Yes, I agree.
Exactly.

The GC riders have been a bunch of ***, with HUGE negative riding and waiting and looking.

If Wiggins, Horner, Levi, Kloden were still here, NONE OF THIS BS would have happened.
Contador would be 8 minutes down.
THe Winklevoss twins would have HAD to follow wheels when Horner and Wiggins flipped out in the Pyrenees and dropped everybody.

THere would have been no cute-we planned this all along--BS attack on the Izoard. Because Ten guys would have followed and Andy and Frank would NOT HAVE DROPPED HORNER AND WIGGINS.

Thats a lot of if's.