2011 TDF: Stage 19 - Modane - Alpe-dÂ’Huez

[Ninety5rpm]

interesting scenerio. possible.

however, i don't think either cunego nor basso could ever shake evans -- at least they haven't all tour. so there your scenario falls apart. because as fuentes frank goes away -- and he doesn't go as fast as andy -- basso (who can still hope to pass frank in the final itt) isn't going to just sit there and unless there is something awfully wrong with cadel, he certainly won't drop him. if cunego and basso can drop cadel -- game's over anyway.

i agree, cadel is in a pickle. but he shouldn't chase fuentes frank. he can probably lose 2 minutes to fuentes frank and still have a chance. better that than losing another minute to andy.

my 2 cents.

Good point.

So what about this.... Frank attacks near the bottom of the Alpe, Cadel doesn't react. Frank gets ahead one maybe two minutes, and Cadel holds him there for 10k, letting Cadel drag him up the mountain. Remember, with Frank up the road no way is Andy doing any work.

After doing all that work, now Andy attacks, viciously. I think that's too big a risk.

On the other hand, if he follows Frank, or at least slowly reels him back each time, he forces Andy to try to go, and he follows him too.

I think his best bet is chase down both of them each time, but not too quickly. I think he can do that because he is stronger.

The status quo is on Cadel's side because he can take the minute out of everyone ahead of him on the TT. So he doesn't need to attack himself.

Yeah, that's his best strategy, just follow wheels, and reel back, at his tempo, any attacks from either Schleck or TV.

 

[LongSprint]

One man alone

AC and SS have been working together.
The Schleks always work together (obviously).
Any French rider will work for TV to keep the MJ.
Basso and Cunego could work together (yeah, I know that's a long shot).

That leaves Cadel to race on his own. It will be an almighty effort if he takes this one.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

A respite - interview with Emily Batty at CAN MTB Nationals

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghEY1KAoZF4&feature=player_embedded

 

[AussieGoddess]

yeah I agree - the Schlecks finally have used the tactical advantage they have of 2 GC contenders.

Now Cadel cant afford to let Frank go. And he cant afford to have Andy attacking either.


I think that

- Frank will go early

- Cadel will have to chase, keep him at a gap of less than a minute but try not to actually bring him back or Andy will attack straight away

- if Frank doesnt go - its because Andy is feeling bad .... so Cadel needs to attack/ride him off his wheel

Cadel can do it if hes good enough. But he will have to be very very good !!!!

 

[mickkk]

It looked obvious to me that Contador was not well yesterday, looked white as a sheet early on, riding without glasses to get the wind on his face to freshen him up a bit. He rarely rides with them off.

When the action starts, Evans must follow every attack and then time trial to the top.

 

[luckyboy]

Here is my official prediction for the day's events. Hope to be referring to this at the stage's end


I think it will be Frank attacking on the Alpe tomorrow. Cadel wouldn't have to work too hard to keep him in check as he is a dismal time trialist. Maybe someone will help him today too.
I don't think Andy will have too much left in the tank to go up the road, and he won't attack his own brother. Probably jump away for a couple of seconds towards the end if he can. Voeckler will either hang on and lose a few seconds at the end or crack.

End of tomorrow I can see Frank in yellow, Voeckler +0.10/crack, Andy +0.20~, Cadel +1.20~


Or maybe Frank will go early and all is lost.

 

[Maxiton]

Dang, just read the whole thread.

Andy or Frank to win. Cuddles to lose all hope for the yellow jersey. Voeckler to finally crack. And then I'll be a sad panda

Can't believe I'm actually wanting Cuddles to win now!

Sounds like a likely scenario.

If he does that [sit on Voeckler's wheel] he might as well give the Schleck brothers the Yellow jersey right now, there's absolutely no way Voeckler will manage to stay with them if he has to do all the work.

True.

A relatively short, explosive stage against rivals that are also pretty tired. I think AC makes this interesting tomorrow, though the overall task is quite large to overcome. I predict he takes back 1:35 back from Andy and wins the stage.

AC could be the spoiler in tomorrow's stage. Lord knows one is needed. But I don't think we - or more to the point, Evans - can count on that by any means.

There is no telling what will happen tomorrow.

Voeckler - He lost 2:20 to Andy today, but we can't write him off when he can stay with Cadel on the final climb even when Cadel is riding at a pace that is taking time out of Andy. Yes, he went really deep to stay in yellow, but he did that in Pyrenees too, and that didn't cause him to blow up the next day. For whatever reason, he's recovering well. If he finds the right wheel again, and Andy is sufficiently weakened from today's effort, he might be able to keep some of that 15 second lead on Andy and the one minute+ he has on each of Cadel and Frank to hang on to that precious jersey by a yellow thread.

Andy - Given how much time he lost on the final climb today, most of the gain has to be attributed to smart (lucky?) tactics, not necessarily being the strongest. It was great racing, but I just don't think he has another performance like that in him. But tactics could work again, this time using Frank to go ahead and make Cadel pull Andy, until Cadel is sufficiently tired so that Andy can launch a successful attack and take more time out of him.

Frank - He might very well have the most left in the tank to be the strongest for tomorrow. However, to concern Cadel, he has to attack and build significantly on his 4 second lead. But that's also probably the best plan to force Cadel to again do the work tomorrow, only this time pull Andy up the Alpe, leaving Andy with enough fuel to take another minute or more out of Cadel by the finish. But the attack on Cadel could work, leaving Frank ahead, perhaps enough to win the stage, and maybe even pass his brother and Tommy and get the yellow.

Cadel - Pulled everyone today, and made time on Andy while doing it indicating he's the strongest and the best bet, but there's simply no telling how his effort today will affect his performance tomorrow. Plus having to respond to Schleck attacks on both flanks will be extra exhausting. He's in 4th now, the pressure is on just to get back on the podium, much less into yellow.

Contador - Okay, it looks like he's out and if it was just about anyone else he would definitely be, but this is Contador. Maybe he forgot to eat his Wheaties this morning if you know what I mean, and will have a midnight snack tonight to make up for it. I'm also suspicious about the lengthy chat he and Sanchez had at the base of the final climb today, and his sudden decision to back off. Was this tactics to force Cadel to burn out and save for tomorrow? Could that, including the 90 seconds he lost to Cadel at the end, have all been a ruse? I don't expect, but won't be surprised, if he does something special on tomorrow's stage. If he is feeling better, it's not at all inconceivable that he takes out 3:46 on Voeckler, and that will be enough if Tommy also retains his :15 on Andy and minute+ on the others.

Let's say Cadel lets Frank go. Andy won't chase, of course. Voeckler probably can't. Unless a miracle occurs, Contador is not a factor. If a miracle does occur, he's already up the road.

So Frank gets a gap and no one closes. 10 seconds. Who's riding up front? 20 seconds. Tommy says "sorry' and Cadel doesn't even bother to look to Andy for help. 30 seconds. Suddenly Cunego (or Basso) attacks and Cadel can't follow that acceleration. 40 seconds.

By the time Frank has 60 seconds Cunego and he are working together, Frank to get yellow, Cunego to get on the podium. Now Cadel finally starts working to contain the damage, but Frank and Cunego are working together and are relatively fresh considering they sucked wheel all day Thursday while Evans worked, and the gap keeps increasing. At 5k from the top Andy goes and by the end of the day both Schlecks have over 2 minutes on Evans and Cunego has knocked him off the podium to boot (and that's assuming Evans can shake Voeckler; if he can't he's 5th).

Something like that is too big a risk to let Frank go.

OH I CAN'T WAIT FOR THIS STAGE!!!!!!! At least it's not as early a start. 7 AM instead of 6 AM, but our West Coast brethren still have some work to do!

My pick:

I don't think Frank goes up the road, it's just too risky in my opinion.

I think Leopard puts it all behind Andy. Andy's got the gap over Evans, but needs more. Frank will destroy himself for Andy, and he'll get 20 seconds over Evans.

Break wins, Sanchez.

See ya'll in the morning!

Absurd. As soon as Frank goes, Andy sits.

Andy is willing to give up yellow and even the podium for his bro to get yellow, and Cadel knows it.

The idea of Cadel sitting on Andy's wheel waiting for "others" (who? TV? ) to chase an up-the-road Frank is absurd. Thehog is absolutely right about the problem Cadel has is having to defend even though he's not in the jersey (or even in top-3). I think he's also right about having to attack.

But I don't think he can. I presume he went as fast as he could today to limit time loss to Andy, and yet couldn't drop Tommy, Basso, Frank or Cunego.

He's in a tough, tough situation.

Good point.

So what about this.... Frank attacks near the bottom of the Alpe, Cadel doesn't react. Frank gets ahead one maybe two minutes, and Cadel holds him there for 10k, letting Cadel drag him up the mountain. Remember, with Frank up the road no way is Andy doing any work.

After doing all that work, now Andy attacks, viciously. I think that's too big a risk.

On the other hand, if he follows Frank, or at least slowly reels him back each time, he forces Andy to try to go, and he follows him too.

I think his best bet is chase down both of them each time, but not too quickly. I think he can do that because he is stronger.

The status quo is on Cadel's side because he can take the minute out of everyone ahead of him on the TT. So he doesn't need to attack himself.

Yeah, that's his best strategy, just follow wheels, and reel back, at his tempo, any attacks from either Schleck or TV.

I agree with much of the above. Cadel is in a lose-lose, tough situation. I agree it will be easy for the Schlecks (notice, they're Necks no longer) to isolate him, and since the brothers are 2 and 3 on GC, it really doesn't matter which one attacks first; Cadell can't let either of them go up the road. On the other hand, if he covers every attack, he won't podium at all, he's toast.

And then there's the question of that little bit of Gaullic gristle, Voeckler, who has the bit between his teeth and sits, unbelievably, still, in the Maillot Jaune going into Stage 19. I think he is cunning and intends to wear that jersey into Paris if at all possible. That being the case he can't leave it to Evans to chase or sit on his wheel like he did today. Nor can he cover every attack, or expend Rolland to cover them.

What Evans and TV have in common is the two man enemy of the Schlecks. They should work together when a Schleck goes up the road, but neither of them is reliable for the other.

I'm thinking if I were Ochowicsz, or Cadell's DS, I'd be on the phone with Riis. If Evan's can enlist the support of Saxo Bank, that would be - *could* be - huge. Why would they help? As someone mentioned above: for revenge. Plus whatever else they might want.

Also, there is the issue of Samu, who has his own ambitions, and of Cunego. If I were Evans I'd be forming an alliance with one or both: a stage win for some help in covering attacks. I just hope Cadell doesn't try to go this alone, because if he does he is doomed (EDIT: Unless maybe he can find a fast wheel to follow).

Whatever happens it promises to be a hairy, scary day in the Alps, and, as touted, the stage where this Tour is won.

 

[Preemo]

Do you get the impression that Cadel has no friends in the peleton?

 

[bicing]

In a short stage, despite Contador's knee and his drop yesterday, will be able to attak and win the stage. He won't go anonymous in the TDF. He won't be followed by any GC favourites, maybe just Sanchez and/or Vanendert for mountains classement points. It will be an attack from shortly before the foot of the climb.

Andy will attack again at one of the steep parts mid-way up the climb. After all, he is their leader. Voeckler and Cadel will follow, Frank on their wheels. Frank and Andy will show that last Saturday's stage was practice for Alpe, and inflict attack after attack on Cadel and Volecker until a Schleck gets free, in which that brother will race his life out to gain as much time as he can. Whichever Schleck will break free will gain max 1 minutes on Cadel and Voeckler. Voeckler will hang on.

After the race, everyone will be wondering what on Earth they're going to do about Voeckler. He'd been with them in bright yellow this whole time and nobody every saw him.

 

[offbyone]

amazing racing

I expect fireworks tomorrow. Andy needs way more time on Cadel. Lucky for him cadel did as much work as him today. That time trial is about 1 hour, I think schleck needs at least 3 minutes, right?

The short stage should definitely create some odd tactics, i expect some guys that aren't top notch climbers to hang with the big boys for a lot of the race.

 

[sublimit]

amazing racing

I expect fireworks tomorrow. Andy needs way more time on Cadel. Lucky for him cadel did as much work as him today. That time trial is about 1 hour, I think schleck needs at least 3 minutes, right?

The short stage should definitely create some odd tactics, i expect some guys that aren't top notch climbers to hang with the big boys for a lot of the race.

Tony Martin did it in 55 minutes or so at the Dauphine for the win, Evans was 1minute 20 down on that one.

Anything over a 1.30 gap will be tough for Evans I reckon.

 

[Galic Ho]

I hope for the love of all things sacred to viewers Evans isn't the only GC rider racing apart from the Schlecks. I'd like to see Basso help out a bit. He can still dislodge Franck from the podium. Contador and Sanchez alas cannot foreseably make the podium.

The strength and fatigue of Andy will reveal more about how the Schlecks race. BMC need all their riders to bury themselves today. Cadel cannot be left isolated again. He is the strongest rider this race but cannot be expected to pull 20 plus men up another MTF from the bottom. I understand why nobody helped him last night, they couldn't but still not happy. AC and Samu tanked big time. Garmin could have catapulted a few spots along with AG2R riders...but they lacked the incentive to go. They had multiple riders getting a tow. Same with Sky. Grow some nads gentlemen. Andy did, or he borrowed the Uniballers only one. Why not you? Aren't you not racing for positions or is it only Cadel? Uran lost white last night Sky, so why not pull and make it hard for Taaramae?

The early crashes have ruined this race. Not because they happened, but because of whom was eliminated. Had Wigans and Jurgen been there last night, Sky would have pulled and Vanender would have set pace. Andy would not have gained two minutes on the flat part after the Izoard and Evans ascent of the Galibier would have drawn Andy back in. But that didn't happen. Because of this the strength of BMC as a team will reveal more about how tonights stage transpires. Evans needs IMO, two to three team mates with him at the bottom of Alpe d'Huez. They need to stay with him a significant way up the climb, at least half way.

Why? If Franck is fine and Andy isn't considerably weakened after yesterday, Franck will have a go. He needs to in order to make the podium. Such a move and whatever the response will dictate whether Andy can do a counterpunch. If Evans has team mates to bury themselves setting a strong tempo, he'll save perhaps enough energy that only Franck can get some time. With the time gaps as they are, Franck needs serious time on Cadel. Andy himself isn't safe or a shoe-in for the win. Cadel just needs to hold on and save as much energy for the ITT as possible.

Voeckler...please help tonight. You too Ivan.

 

[offbyone]

Tony Martin did it in 55 minutes or so at the Dauphine for the win, Evans was 1minute 20 down on that one.

Anything over a 1.30 gap will be tough for Evans I reckon.

Interesting. I guess I was overestimating. Maybe Frank needs 3mins though.

 

[UlleGigo]

Do you get the impression that Cadel has no friends in the peleton?

I have been wondering this for years. He always seems to be the first rider to get isolated and its not always in circumstances where you would expect him to be the odd man out.

Contador and Sanchez won't work with him.

Voeckler et al won't work with him.

Basso and Cunego won't work with him.

It always seems to be Cadel single handedly chasing CSC/Saxobank/Leopard.

Contador should give Porte some of his el Steako and let him help his compatriot.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Tony Martin did it in 55 minutes or so at the Dauphine for the win, Evans was 1minute 20 down on that one.

Anything over a 1.30 gap will be tough for Evans I reckon.

indeed.
And he was 1.20 - 1.30 better then the likes of vdb and gesink who are maybe a fair comparison. However andy Generally is stronger in the 3rd week, and Evans less good.

Anything over 1.30 is game over for cuddles. I have a hunch 1 minute would just be enough for andy tho.

 

[MartinGT]

Morning all *waves*

Another massive day in a great Tour.

I expect to see FS attack and break Evans.

 

[MartinGT]

Do you get the impression that Cadel has no friends in the peleton?

I think its because of his girls voice.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Do you get the impression that Cadel has no friends in the peleton?

Well the only two I was surprised that didn't chase were Basso and Voeckler. Voeckler can win the tour and his reluctancy to do any work stunned me.


BMC need to go all out today. Just ride it hard the whole day till the bottom of the AlpeD'Huez. Can they do it is a big question?

 

[Descender]

Well the only two I was surprised that didn't chase were Basso and Voeckler. Voeckler can win the tour and his reluctancy to do any work stunned me.


BMC need to go all out today. Just ride it hard the whole day till the bottom of the AlpeD'Huez. Can they do it is a big question?

No they can't is the answer.

 

[jens_attacks]

frank will attack hard on galibier,andy will attack even harder on alpe.it will be probably a leopard 1-2.cadel will lose more than a minute i fear.
i still think that alberto might attack on galibier just for the fun.

 

[MartinGT]

No they can't is the answer.

Thats my feeling too

 

[spalco]

To me frank should attack early, evans chases him, Andy sits on evans wheel and attacks him when is best and trys to gain more time on him, and TV, well he has hanged on to evans on every big climb so far. I just cant make me mind up about it. P.S., the contador that evans cracked today was a well below conti, you know this wouldnt happen if conti was at even 90%.

I'm not sure Evans does chase Frank in this scenario. Unless you figure Frank to TT better than Andy Evans can afford to give up a minute to Frank without compromising his chances to win the Tour in any way.

 

[Cerberus]

I'm not sure Evans does chase Frank in this scenario. Unless you figure Frank to TT better than Andy Evans can afford to give up a minute to Frank without compromising his chances to win the Tour in any way.

He'd always be compromising his chances in some way, because Andy could have a bad day or even a crash on the TT, but yes, under normal circumstances we'd expect Frank to lose more time in the TT than Andy.

 

[Sem Travões]

If Frank attcks earlier Cadle should not go after him only one of the brothers can win and the best to do it is now Andy, Cadle should stick to Andy like glue.
TV will try to follow anyone at the front, I thinking the wheel for him might be Basso, but now after of waht I've seen maybe the other ay around, in case I believe he can't do more, Basso may want to finish in the top three, but I don't know if can do it.
So Cadle will be on his own tomorrow again, but hey the man comes from MTB, so he's used to ride alone, and his team at least was precious in the TTT, so if he wins the Tour it started all there. My doubt today is on Leopard working aswell as yesterday, will they have the legs after all the work they have done stage, or will they use Leopard 2 sorry Quick Step to do the job.

 

[Cycling the Alps]

Climbs of today

Col du Télégraphe (1566m)
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Col du Galibier (2645m)
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Alpe D'Huez (1860m)
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