2011 TDF: Stage 19 - Modane - Alpe-dÂ’Huez

[dlwssonic]

COME ON EVANS!!! Its now or never!!! this is your best chance chance to win the tour. dig deep!

 

[sulgpallur]

So will saxobank finally send somebody (Navarro, Porte, CAS) to break to fight for stage victory, now as contador is unlikely to win and get something out of this TDF?

 

[Archibald]

have not read through the 20 pages thus far, but is it worth Cuddles trying to gap the schlecks on the descent of Galibier? gain over a minute (perhaps) and then hope that when the schelcks reach him on l'Alpe it'll be pretty much the finish and can hang on to lose no more time?

 

[cyclingfanatik]

He'd always be compromising his chances in some way, because Andy could have a bad day or even a crash on the TT, but yes, under normal circumstances we'd expect Frank to lose more time in the TT than Andy.

There is no way Andy beats Franck in the TT. Not gonna happen. No chance.

 

[Cerberus]

There is no way Andy beats Franck in the TT. Not gonna happen. No chance.

Say what? I feel like I'm missing some sort of joke.

 

[sulgpallur]

There is no way Andy beats Franck in the TT. Not gonna happen. No chance.

I think also that Andy is better TTer than Frank, so why its not gonna happen?

 

[flappingdinglehatch]

will cadel be happy if contador attacks and the schleks are forced to chase so he he doesnt have to worry about the brothers attacking constantly?

 

[roundabout]

have not read through the 20 pages thus far, but is it worth Cuddles trying to gap the schlecks on the descent of Galibier? gain over a minute (perhaps) and then hope that when the schelcks reach him on l'Alpe it'll be pretty much the finish and can hang on to lose no more time?

That's a bit optimistic.

 

[Winterfold]

Finally someone saying how it really is.
All this best tour ever just because we had 1 really great stage.

And thanks to Contador the past few stages were good too (because otherwise they would be unused!!)

The first 2 weeks however were pure misery and we lost 70% of the guys that could have made this Tour a lot better.
This is nothing great.

And they kept the tension, by having no great stages until now. Wow, no miracle. Next year please a mountain in week 1. Or at least a 40km/50km TT in week 1.

That will sort contenders from pretenders much earlier.

This (and what Libertine said)

 

[El Pistolero]

Cuddles should indeed try to pressure them on the descend.

 

[Cerberus]

will cadel be happy if contador attacks and the schleks are forced to chase so he he doesnt have to worry about the brothers attacking constantly?

Why would they chase? They've got a comfortable margin to Contador, and if they can bridge to him they can work together by giving Contador the stage and Schleck the GC. I think a contador attack is more likely to favour the Schlecks than Evans.

 

[khardung la]

If Frank or Andy attack I can imagine Contador will help Cadel Evans in the chase, since Contador may like to win the stage. I do not think Contador will attack before the Schlecks. If he attacks before then Cadel is alone, maybe TV will come to reason, but I doubt it.

 

[sulgpallur]

If Frank or Andy attack I can imagine Contador will help Cadel Evans in the chase, since Contador may like to win the stage. I do not think Contador will attack before the Schlecks. If he attacks before then Cadel is alone, maybe TV will come to reason, but I doubt it.

he isn't gonna be cadel's babysitter. If schleks attack he will try to go with them if he has any thought about stage victory

 

[mickkk]

Robbie McEwan fired up it seems from his twitter

"I might throw out some comments from the peanut gallery this arvo during tdf stage if in front of tv & have internet. we'll see"

Hope he posts here.

 

[khardung la]

he isn't gonna be cadel's babysitter. If schleks attack he will try to go with them if he has any thought about stage victory

...or be smart and collaborate with Evans et al. while the Schleck that attacks is alone. I was talking about a long distance attack from a Schleck, not a race situation with 5-6 km to go.

 

[LaFleur]

Expecting Uran to be in a breakaway today, what do you think, will they let him get away? Uran said he will try to do something about the white jersey today.., don't think he meant that he will try to attack others on the Alpe d'Huez and win 4 minutes over the other youngsters..

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

On the dutch NOS.nl site there are images of Alpe d'Huez in past years.

If you watch Alpe d'Huez 1997 you realise how boring and sucky cycling is nowadays. A stage like yesterday is the only thing that comes close to those times.

 

[AussieGoddess]

frank will attack hard on galibier,andy will attack even harder on alpe.it will be probably a leopard 1-2.cadel will lose more than a minute i fear.
i still think that alberto might attack on galibier just for the fun.

yeah pretty much this

I actually think that Alberto may try and help Samu today - if Samu wins the stage he will get KOM ....

 

[LeakyBoat]

If Frank attcks earlier Cadle should not go after him only one of the brothers can win and the best to do it is now Andy, Cadle should stick to Andy like glue.

As Ninety5rpm put it to someone who said the same:

Absurd. As soon as Frank goes, Andy sits.

Andy is willing to give up yellow and even the podium for his bro to get yellow, and Cadel knows it.

The idea of Cadel sitting on Andy's wheel waiting for "others" (who? TV? ) to chase an up-the-road Frank is absurd. Thehog is absolutely right about the problem Cadel has is having to defend even though he's not in the jersey (or even in top-3). I think he's also right about having to attack.

But I don't think he can. I presume he went as fast as he could today to limit time loss to Andy, and yet couldn't drop Tommy, Basso, Frank or Cunego.

He's in a tough, tough situation.

 

[seldon71]

Prognosis for today : F.Schleck goes for a rampage and may be joined by some stage-hunter like Jeannesson, Uran (if he recovers) or possibly given a big hand by Arroyo (who could work to eliminate/further penalize Cav).

Others who may feel brave are Contador (stage win would salvage a bit), Samu, Vanendert (KoM race + stage honours). Basso and Cunego are in unfortunate situation of not really contending overall anymore, but still too close to be let go...

My feeling is that after totally knackering themselves yesterday and with a long TT looming, the trio of AS, Cadel & TV will ride defensively. The latter two don't want to let Fränky-boy to win the Tour today, but neither will any of them want to risk the legs for TT for a small gain.

Voeckler MAY crack completely, but we have been waiting for that for a week already... Besides, he has the best domestique in his service.

So, Maillot Jeune to finally change shoulders today to Fränk Schleck, but overall title only to be decided in TT.

GC after Stage 19 :
Fränk Schleck
Thomas Voeckler +37
Andy Schleck +44
Cadel Evans + 1.41
Ivan Basso + 3.55
Alberto Contador +4.11
Damiano Cunego +4.19

The rest (including S.Sanchez) upto 7 minutes down.

 

[rata de sentina]

So will saxobank finally send somebody (Navarro, Porte, CAS) to break to fight for stage victory, now as contador is unlikely to win and get something out of this TDF?

The saxo domestiques have been a bit absent this year, I thought maybe they were saving them for the Alps but that is obviously rubbish. In fact overall the domestiques have been a bit useless at the pointy end of the mountains apart from Rolland of course. BMC and LT did OK yesterday to get a couple in the break but the usual saxo and liqui fleet were seriously absent. Didn't really expect much from BMC but Saxo is a bit of a surprise as Navarro at least was really good last year.

 

[spalco]

have not read through the 20 pages thus far, but is it worth Cuddles trying to gap the schlecks on the descent of Galibier? gain over a minute (perhaps) and then hope that when the schelcks reach him on l'Alpe it'll be pretty much the finish and can hang on to lose no more time?

If he feels really, really good, maybe. But if I was Evans' DS my strategy would be to be super-conservative and -defensive. No attacks, no bridging gaps unless absolutely crucial, no riding in the wind if someone else is willing, and just to ride his own tempo up Alpe d'Huez at a speed as constant as possible. Spend no energy unless the race is on the line.

 

[MartinGT]

The saxo domestiques have been a bit absent this year, I thought maybe they were saving them for the Alps but that is obviously rubbish. In fact overall the domestiques have been a bit useless at the pointy end of the mountains apart from Rolland of course. BMC and LT did OK yesterday to get a couple in the break but the usual saxo and liqui fleet were seriously absent. Didn't really expect much from BMC but Saxo is a bit of a surprise as Navarro at least was really good last year.

Navarro was an animal last year and grafted like hell for Bertie, so when he went to Saxo I wasnt suprised to see Navarro go with him.

How many of the domestiques went to the Giro with him? Could that be a factor?

 

[search]

Problem Cadel's got is he's in defending mode & he doesn't even have the jersey. I think Cadel has to try something himself. It's not going to be fun chasing down attacks all day. But I'm not sure he can.

I think he doesn't have to, he can afford to lose time to everyone except Andy (and Voeckler of course, but that's quite unlikely to happen anyway) so he is in a quite comfortable position. Just driving his own pace up to Alpe d'Huez should be enough to maintain his good position to win the overall.

I'm just not sure he is mentaly able to ride like this

 

[anubis]

I don't think Frank will go at all today, If he makes a move and Cadel follows and there is a gap between Cadel and Andy of 5 or 6 or seconds it may give Cadel the impetus to keep on going and Frank will have opened the gap.

Imo Cadel is better off in this position than he would be if he was 10 seconds in front or behind Andy, instead of a all out attack by both to beat Cadel i think once again the brothers will be watching each other more than trying to destroy Cadel.

If Cadel can bring it back to 40 seconds to Andy i think he will win it in the TT, he has never looked this strong before at this point.