2011 TDF: Stage 19 - Modane - Alpe-dÂ’Huez

[ehm.li]

I use the tool from http://tour.xplova.com and plan TDF-2011 Stage 19 according to the waypoints that posted in TDF, http://tour.xplova.com/routeDetail/?GUID=9A998680-FD67-3598-5DB2-2F9E4C3928CC&callbackURI=routes%3Forderby%3DcreateDatetime%26order%3DDESC%26maxlimit%3D100%26diff%3D1-4%26dis%3D0-200%26focusRoute%3D911%26subPage%3Drecent%26 , you can zoom in to see and analyze the details of distance v.s. elevation profile, you can also click the play button to activate the google earth route simulation. Looks like a new and useful tool.

 

[Ninety5rpm]

andy needs at least a little time on cadel to feel more comfortable (unless his itt is suddenly clinic-supplemented).

frank needs way more time.

cadel needs to mark andy only. let frank go. frank is less explosive and i doubt he will be able to gain that much.

Let's say Cadel lets Frank go. Andy won't chase, of course. Voeckler probably can't. Unless a miracle occurs, Contador is not a factor. If a miracle does occur, he's already up the road.

So Frank gets a gap and no one closes. 10 seconds. Who's riding up front? 20 seconds. Tommy says "sorry' and Cadel doesn't even bother to look to Andy for help. 30 seconds. Suddenly Cunego (or Basso) attacks and Cadel can't follow that acceleration. 40 seconds.

By the time Frank has 60 seconds Cunego and he are working together, Frank to get yellow, Cunego to get on the podium. Now Cadel finally starts working to contain the damage, but Frank and Cunego are working together and are relatively fresh considering they sucked wheel all day Thursday while Evans worked, and the gap keeps increasing. At 5k from the top Andy goes and by the end of the day both Schlecks have over 2 minutes on Evans and Cunego has knocked him off the podium to boot (and that's assuming Evans can shake Voeckler; if he can't he's 5th).

Something like that is too big a risk to let Frank go.

 

[thehog]

Problem Cadel's got is he's in defending mode & he doesn't even have the jersey. I think Cadel has to try something himself. It's not going to be fun chasing down attacks all day. But I'm not sure he can.

After O'Grady & Voigt do their thing I'd send Frank up the road very early on & make Tommy V & Cadel chase. Then I'd get Andy to attack & chase. That would smash Cadel.

Let's say Cadel lets Frank go. Andy won't chase, of course. Voeckler probably can't. Unless a miracle occurs, Contador is not a factor. If a miracle does occur, he's already up the road.

So Frank gets a gap and no one closes. 10 seconds. Who's riding up front? 20 seconds. Tommy says "sorry' and Cadel doesn't even bother to look to Andy for help. 30 seconds. Suddenly Cunego (or Basso) attacks and Cadel can't follow that acceleration. 40 seconds.

By the time Frank has 60 seconds Cunego and he are working together, Frank to get yellow, Cunego to get on the podium. Now Cadel finally starts working to contain the damage, but Frank and Cunego are working together and are relatively fresh considering they sucked wheel all day Thursday while Evans worked, and the gap keeps increasing. At 5k from the top Andy goes and by the end of the day both Schlecks have over 2 minutes on Evans and Cunego has knocked him off the podium to boot (and that's assuming Evans can shake Voeckler; if he can't he's 5th).

Something like that is too big a risk to let Frank go.

 

[patswana]

Agree with the idea that Leopard have to try again with Frank attacking early on the Alpe today. I can't imagine that Cadel or Europcar would let Frank get away if he tried to attack earlier like Andy did. The big question is how well Andy will recover for this stage.

 

[2wheels]

I agree with much of 95 RPM's analysis above. Knowing that long attacks have often worked out well for Cunego, I could see a convenient alliance that has Frank (or Andy) working with him. Schleck benefits by getting precious time, Cunego benefits by getting the stage win and a podium place in TDF. Plus he and Frank ride well together-- in fact they ride Alpe d'Huez well together, as I recall.

If Frank and Cunego are up the road, I would expect an immediate Basso-Evans-Voeckler alliance to form-- with a grinning Scleck coasting along on their shoulders.

 

[patswana]

Will this be the second of three consecutive Leopard stage wins with Frank again winning on the Alpe? (Assume that Cancellara will win the ITT.)

 

[cineteq]

Will this be the second of three consecutive Leopard stage wins with Frank again winning on the Alpe? (Assume that Cancellara will win the ITT.)

Great, that will give Cadel his first TdF. Andy is the one who needs to put out time on Cadel, not Frank

 

[cineteq]

Let's say Cadel lets Frank go. Andy won't chase, of course. Voeckler probably can't. Unless a miracle occurs, Contador is not a factor. If a miracle does occur, he's already up the road.

So Frank gets a gap and no one closes. 10 seconds. Who's riding up front? 20 seconds. Tommy says "sorry' and Cadel doesn't even bother to look to Andy for help. 30 seconds. Suddenly Cunego (or Basso) attacks and Cadel can't follow that acceleration. 40 seconds.

By the time Frank has 60 seconds Cunego and he are working together, Frank to get yellow, Cunego to get on the podium. Now Cadel finally starts working to contain the damage, but Frank and Cunego are working together and are relatively fresh considering they sucked wheel all day Thursday while Evans worked, and the gap keeps increasing. At 5k from the top Andy goes and by the end of the day both Schlecks have over 2 minutes on Evans and Cunego has knocked him off the podium to boot (and that's assuming Evans can shake Voeckler; if he can't he's 5th).

Something like that is too big a risk to let Frank go.

It's simple than that. Cadel will be glued to Andy's wheel, and let others chase Frank. That's his best chance.

 

[Dedelou]

Contadore will do what Sastra done a few years ago just hope Cadel can go with him All organised by Riis

My heart would like to agree with you but I think Alberto is not up to something great this time. It finally piled up and stage 18 was the nail in the coffin. I am hurting for him but I had to admire Andy for once

 

[Ramira]

It's simple than that. Cadel will to be glued to Andy's wheel, and let others chase Frank.

The only one that Andy would care about is Voeckler and he won't be able or willing to. Even if a Contador or Basso where to counter Andy would never drag Cadel back to their wheel. So in your scenario Fränk would take 2+ minutes easy and win this tour. Cadel will have to chase Fränk because there is no-one else that will.

Heck if you're totally right and Cadel will truly only sit on Andy's wheel he could just drop a gap let Fränk get away with some others who are no threat to him or Fränk and watch Cadel lose the tour in his wheel.

 

[Bennyl]

I know that he put in a big effort yesterday, but Cadel has yet to show any weakness to any of the other climbers. Will Frank ride away from Cadel that easily? And even then, Cadels pace yesterday was so hard, no-one could follow him except for Frank, who will have to do it by himself tonight if he's to attack.

 

[indurain666]

Its interesting to see what Cadel is going to do tomorrow.

I think Andy Schleck is way too egocentric to let his brother gain too much time and win the race this might help Cadel a bit, he can't chase these two guys all day long so perhaps he should choose Andy's wheel.

Lets not forget when he put the hammer down he cut down almost two minutes to Schlek on 6 kms

 

[Ramira]

Its interesting to see what Cadel is going to do tomorrow.

I think Andy Schleck is way too egocentric to let his brother gain too much time and win the race this might help Cadel a bit, he can't chase these two guys all day long so perhaps he should choose Andy's wheel.

Lets not forget when he put the hammer down he cut down almost two minutes to Schlek on 6 kms

Andy Schleck way to egocentric? He committed what he thought was a suicide attack yesterday in order to allow Fränk to attack when caught and win this years tour. There's no evidence whatsoever to indicate he's to egocentric to let Fränk win this tour.

 

[rides like a girl]

Just wondering a couple things out loud...

Can the Schlecks put back to back stages together? They haven't seemingly been able to do it so far? Frank had a good day in the Pyrenees, only to fail the next test. One seems to be good on one day and then the next day not so much. Will they show consistency?

Could other teams with eyes on different prizes as side effect help Cadel/Tommy V while working towards their non yellow prize. I am talking about Garmin working for Tommy D and Team Classification, Sky for young rider, Sammy for polka dots.

Will Tommy V live again? "Experts" have explained how he would lose the jersey everyday, yet he hasn't.

I hope something unexpected happens so we are still guessing and figuring time needed on Saturday's time trial. Is it time for another stage win by Norway?

 

[jobiwan]

OH I CAN'T WAIT FOR THIS STAGE!!!!!!! At least it's not as early a start. 7 AM instead of 6 AM, but our West Coast brethren still have some work to do!

My pick:

I don't think Frank goes up the road, it's just too risky in my opinion.

I think Leopard puts it all behind Andy. Andy's got the gap over Evans, but needs more. Frank will destroy himself for Andy, and he'll get 20 seconds over Evans.

Break wins, Sanchez.

See ya'll in the morning!

 

[rides like a girl]

OH I CAN'T WAIT FOR THIS STAGE!!!!!!! At least it's not as early a start. 7 AM instead of 6 AM, but our West Coast brethren still have some work to do!

My pick:

I don't think Frank goes up the road, it's just too risky in my opinion.

I think Leopard puts it all behind Andy. Andy's got the gap over Evans, but needs more. Frank will destroy himself for Andy, and he'll get 20 seconds over Evans.

Break wins, Sanchez.

See ya'll in the morning!

I am use to the 5 a.m. starts on the West Coast. That extra hour will help. I will actually be coherent. The 4 a.m. wake up on a work day do hurt a bit.

 

[luckyboy]

There's no evidence whatsoever to indicate he's to egocentric to let Fränk win this tour.

Let's hope not.

Question is: are the Schlecks too egocentric to let Evans win this Tour?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Finally someone saying how it really is.
All this best tour ever just because we had 1 really great stage.

And thanks to Contador the past few stages were good too (because otherwise they would be unused!!)

The first 2 weeks however were pure misery and we lost 70% of the guys that could have made this Tour a lot better.
This is nothing great.

And they kept the tension, by having no great stages until now. Wow, no miracle. Next year please a mountain in week 1. Or at least a 40km/50km TT in week 1.

That will sort contenders from pretenders much earlier.

indeed.
if this has been the best tour in years, it says more about the tour in general then the greatness of this edition.

 

[Ramira]

Let's hope not.

Question is: are the Schlecks too egocentric to let Evans win this Tour?

Maybe not, if he asks really nicely

 

[FabulousCandelabra]

Cadel will crack, Andy will fly to victory... This goes out to all the haters. Andy and I were soooo sick of the endless piles of Schleck hating.. time to eat your words!!

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Cadel will crack, Andy will fly to victory... This goes out to all the haters. Andy and I were soooo sick of the endless piles of Schleck hating.. time to eat your words!!

 

[hughmoore]

Cadel will crack, Andy will fly to victory... This goes out to all the haters. Andy and I were soooo sick of the endless piles of Schleck hating.. time to eat your words!!

As usual, your seem to be wrong, the world doesnt hate the Shreks, only the horse head Shrek.


Look forward to tonight.



Hugh

 

[Ninety5rpm]

It's simple than that. Cadel will be glued to Andy's wheel, and let others chase Frank. That's his best chance.

Absurd. As soon as Frank goes, Andy sits.

Andy is willing to give up yellow and even the podium for his bro to get yellow, and Cadel knows it.

The idea of Cadel sitting on Andy's wheel waiting for "others" (who? TV? ) to chase an up-the-road Frank is absurd. Thehog is absolutely right about the problem Cadel has is having to defend even though he's not in the jersey (or even in top-3). I think he's also right about having to attack.

But I don't think he can. I presume he went as fast as he could today to limit time loss to Andy, and yet couldn't drop Tommy, Basso, Frank or Cunego.

He's in a tough, tough situation.

 

[Dedelou]

Disagree also. Conta cracked, but I don't think you can really put it down to Evans. Lots of other factors. There were still like a half-dozen guys having no problem following Evans at that point. Tomorrow's outcome will be decided by how everyone recovers tonight-- and that's a total crapshoot, especially after a stage like this, and at this altitude. My recollection is that Andy typically hits his peak just about at the end of the Tour and recovers pretty well after mountain stages-- but we'll see.

Contador cracking sounds like a "bad" day.. I think we may see a "different Aberto" tomorrow. I don't believe he can " make up for his deficit in time but I do believe he can make some people hurt or even loose tomorrow.

 

[Big Doopie]

Let's say Cadel lets Frank go. Andy won't chase, of course. Voeckler probably can't. Unless a miracle occurs, Contador is not a factor. If a miracle does occur, he's already up the road.

So Frank gets a gap and no one closes. 10 seconds. Who's riding up front? 20 seconds. Tommy says "sorry' and Cadel doesn't even bother to look to Andy for help. 30 seconds. Suddenly Cunego (or Basso) attacks and Cadel can't follow that acceleration. 40 seconds.

By the time Frank has 60 seconds Cunego and he are working together, Frank to get yellow, Cunego to get on the podium. Now Cadel finally starts working to contain the damage, but Frank and Cunego are working together and are relatively fresh considering they sucked wheel all day Thursday while Evans worked, and the gap keeps increasing. At 5k from the top Andy goes and by the end of the day both Schlecks have over 2 minutes on Evans and Cunego has knocked him off the podium to boot (and that's assuming Evans can shake Voeckler; if he can't he's 5th).

Something like that is too big a risk to let Frank go.

interesting scenerio. possible.

however, i don't think either cunego nor basso could ever shake evans -- at least they haven't all tour. so there your scenario falls apart. because as fuentes frank goes away -- and he doesn't go as fast as andy -- basso (who can still hope to pass frank in the final itt) isn't going to just sit there and unless there is something awfully wrong with cadel, he certainly won't drop him. if cunego and basso can drop cadel -- game's over anyway.

i agree, cadel is in a pickle. but he shouldn't chase fuentes frank. he can probably lose 2 minutes to fuentes frank and still have a chance. better that than losing another minute to andy.

i still think the key is voeckler. andy and frank have to drop him and quite a bit. voeckler in the itt is unknown particularly in relation to the (normally) tt-allergic schlecks. voeckler can stand to remain on par with evans and still have hope. he cannot, however, lose too much time on the schlecks. i would not be surprised to see rolland pulling for voeckler behind fuentes frank.

if voeckler loses just a handful of seconds to the schlecks there is no telling what he might do in the itt.

my 2 cents.