2011 TDF: Stage 19 - Modane - Alpe-dÂ’Huez

[Sophistic]

As it seems, AS needs a proper "warm up" to perform well so LT should push already at the Telegraph.
When did he lose time to AC in the last 3 years?Either on climbs that had an easy run in: stage 16, Mende last year, Verbier 09 or TTs

 

[El Pistolero]

Vanendert will probably loose his polka dots

He should go in the breakaway and collect 30 points tomorrow. Then we'll see who wins on Alpe. If Andy or Samu wins or get second it's game over, otherwise he'll win.

 

[sulgpallur]

He should go in the breakaway and collect 30 points tomorrow. Then we'll see who wins on Alpe. If Andy or Samu wins or get second it's game over, otherwise he'll win.

and he could still go all the way to get some extra points on MTF

 

[hfer07]

I have a hard time believing that Cadel had an easier time than AS today... Only people that might have 'saved' some energy are Basso and FS. Basso is not a contender anymore and FS is no threat to AS.

which leads me to believe that Frank will be the one launching the attacks on Alpe d'huez & Andy will mark Cadel - ala 08- but this could back fire If neither of the brothers get more than 2 minutes ahead of Evas at the end of the stage....

 

[Christophe]

I think it boils down to who will pay the most for their efforts on the Galibier. Evans may have been more sheltered than Andy, but less than Frank. Moving Frank up by a minute or two still doesn't strengthen the case for one Schleck or the other in yellow at the end. It has to be Andy gaining more time on l'Alpe to accomplish that.

It looks like a very tight race is shaping up. Love the notion that this GC might be settled in a brawl in Paris!

 

[Sem Travões]

If i was there in the Alp d'huez road, I'lll be screaming

Go Paulinho
Go Costa (did he give up today?)
and
GO CADLE
The guy deserve it and he's a mountain biker just like me, so we fat wheelers gotta stick together

 

[jsem94]

SAMU for polka-dots. IMO he should do a Schleck, keep Euskaltel at front to eliminate breakaways - then attack with like a few KMs left to the top of Galibier. Do a dare-devil descent and end up a few minutes ahead of the peloton going into Alpe - then taking the stage. Would be epic.

If Cuddles can just limit his losses tomorrow, who knows what'll happen in the TT.

 

[kurtinsc]

I have a hard time believing that Cadel had an easier time than AS today... Only people that might have 'saved' some energy are Basso and FS. Basso is not a contender anymore and FS is no threat to AS.

Hard to say. Andy had 2 hours of tough effort to 30 minutes for Cadel. Cadel did complete the final climb quite a bit faster then Andy did... and he did it solo just like Andy.

Andy can gain time on Evans, but at this point in the tour I'm going to say that nobody is significanlty better then Evans in the mountains. He took the wind the entire way up the climb, dropped most of his opponents, gained time on Andy wore out everyone who went with him aside from Frank Schleck, who didn't put his nose in the wind until that last attack on Cadel riding out front for 15-20km.

Frank may take a minute tomorrow. But at this point, I actually think Evans has been the strongest or second strongest (to Frank) climber.

Cadel simply has looked better then everyone else so far.

 

[Gubby Allen]

Lot of money on Gesink, he's 5th favourite for the stage ahead of Basso, Sanchez, Cunego & TV.

 

[RedZone]

I have a hard time believing that Cadel had an easier time than AS today... Only people that might have 'saved' some energy are Basso and FS. Basso is not a contender anymore and FS is no threat to AS.

No way of really knowing until tomorrow. One thing Cadel might take solace in is the fact that Andy pretty much completely blew up in the last 500 meters, he lost almost 45 seconds in that last km.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lot of money on Gesink, he's 5th favourite for the stage ahead of Basso, Sanchez, Cunego & TV.

But how?

He says on twitter 21th was the best he can do at the moment.

Also a more serious insight re: his injuries. He said in an interview with Dutch TV this morning that yesterday was the first day they could touch (massage) his back since his fall. Before that it was too sensitive and too painful (!!).
It was also the first night he didn't wake up at one point because his ribs were still bruised.

He's been riding with all that for nearly 3 weeks. I think he has been in more pain than he ever let on. It would have been wiser to pull out. But ok, props for him.
He said tomorrow he is going full again and 'see where it ends'. Probably not much better than today but ok. At least he is trying

 

[goggalor]

But how?

He says on twitter 21th was the best he can do at the moment.

Also a more serious insight re: his injuries. He said in an interview with Dutch TV this morning that yesterday was the first day they could touch (massage) his back since his fall. Before that it was too sensitive and too painful (!!).
It was also the first night he didn't wake up at one point because his ribs were still bruised.

He's been riding with all that for nearly 3 weeks. I think he has been in more pain than he ever let on. It would have been wiser to pull out. But ok, props for him.
He said tomorrow he is going full again and 'see where it ends'. Probably not much better than today but ok. At least he is trying

He's tough that one, but is he being smart? Maybe someone should've told him to stop.

 

[The Hitch]

But how?

He says on twitter 21th was the best he can do at the moment.

Also a more serious insight re: his injuries. He said in an interview with Dutch TV this morning that yesterday was the first day they could touch (massage) his back since his fall. Before that it was too sensitive and too painful (!!).
It was also the first night he didn't wake up at one point because his ribs were still bruised.

He's been riding with all that for nearly 3 weeks. I think he has been in more pain than he ever let on. It would have been wiser to pull out. But ok, props for him.
He said tomorrow he is going full again and 'see where it ends'. Probably not much better than today but ok. At least he is trying

What were the specifications of that avatar bet with ACF? You said Gesink would podium and beat Cadel by 3 minutes barring injuries.

Seems you are lucky Gesink had his crash. He wasnt going to beat Cadel by 3 minutes

 

[cineteq]

Hard to say. Andy had 2 hours of tough effort to 30 minutes for Cadel. Cadel did complete the final climb quite a bit faster then Andy did... and he did it solo just like Andy.

The thing is that Andy was in red today, he lost 1 minute or so in the last 1.5km. I wouldn't be surprise if he bonks tomorrow. Today, Cadel was to follow Alberto, and tomorrow will be Andy, and no one else. If Frank goes he'll allow 1 minute or so before charging...

Actually Cadel was unlucky today that Alberto was tired, I'm pretty sure he was counting on him to close the gap even more in the last kms.

 

[Goldberger]

But how?

He says on twitter 21th was the best he can do at the moment.

Also a more serious insight re: his injuries. He said in an interview with Dutch TV this morning that yesterday was the first day they could touch (massage) his back since his fall. Before that it was too sensitive and too painful (!!).
It was also the first night he didn't wake up at one point because his ribs were still bruised.

He's been riding with all that for nearly 3 weeks. I think he has been in more pain than he ever let on. It would have been wiser to pull out. But ok, props for him.
He said tomorrow he is going full again and 'see where it ends'. Probably not much better than today but ok. At least he is trying

I realise that the tour means alot to the riders, but if Gesink is in so much pain wouldn't it be better for him to pull out and focus on the Vuelta wich he can actually win? Especially after Sanchez won a stage and salvaged the tour for Rabobank.

Seems a bit stupid....

 

[brollebol]

First of all, great intro in what could be a nice final battle for the overall.

I've got a feeling that, because it is quite a short stage, if the fireworks do not start on the Galibier and they soft-pedal their way up there many people will be able to hang on on Alpe d'Huez.

Since this is just a stupid feeling I have, and I have no historical recollection of rides like tomorrows stage, or any scientific information, I'm wondering what you guys think.

If it all does explode on Alpe d'Huez will some people be able to hang on that normally should have been dropped, after a long stage? (Guys like Vino come to mind that can grind the big gear with loads of willpower for a long time)

I'm asking because I'm afraid the favorites won't be able to drop each other on account of being too 'fresh'.

Excuses for any difficulties following my story, it's been a long day...

 

[brollebol]

I realise that the tour means alot to the riders, but if Gesink is in so much pain wouldn't it be better for him to pull out and focus on the Vuelta wich he can actually win? Especially after Sanchez won a stage and salvaged the tour for Rabobank.

Seems a bit stupid....

That was what most people here thought as well (I did anyways).

But on the other hand I understand that it's hard for him, he has prepared for this race all year, his teammates have prepared for this race all year to help him in the race. LuLu's stage victory definitely hasn't salvaged this race, he decided to stay and maybe win a stage himself, but I definitely think if it wasn't for his teammates he would have left.

Stupid? -Maybe
Classy? -Definitely

 

[momomomo]

I think that the strongest today was Cadel, and he will be tomorrow as well. He took 2 mins out of Andy today on the last climb. Tomorrow he will mark andy and that should be enough???

 

[thehog]

Contador can't win but with nothing to lose he might make others make a mistake or follow. Will be interesting.

First of all, great intro in what could be a nice final battle for the overall.

I've got a feeling that, because it is quite a short stage, if the fireworks do not start on the Galibier and they soft-pedal their way up there many people will be able to hang on on Alpe d'Huez.

Since this is just a stupid feeling I have, and I have no historical recollection of rides like tomorrows stage, or any scientific information, I'm wondering what you guys think.

If it all does explode on Alpe d'Huez will some people be able to hang on that normally should have been dropped, after a long stage? (Guys like Vino come to mind that can grind the big gear with loads of willpower for a long time)

I'm asking because I'm afraid the favorites won't be able to drop each other on account of being too 'fresh'.

Excuses for any difficulties following my story, it's been a long day...

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I think the Schleck's best chance is to let Fränk do what Andy did today: attack from far out. Fränk should be the most fresh of the bunch and they should take advantage of that. Fränk can't get enough time on Evans to be a threat to him by just attacking on Alpe d'Huez and I don't think Andy is able to put enough time into Cadel on the Alpe either with todays stage in mind.

They probably won't send Fränk on a mission on Galibier though. They'll probably wait untill the Alpe and let Fränk attack very early, hoping that Evans will chase and then Andy can counter - if he's got anything left, that is.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Isn't it nice that the GC battle has finally ignited?

Oh. The race finishes in two days.

I hate Christian Prudhomme.

 

[No_Balls]

I think the Schleck's best chance is to let Fränk do what Andy did today: attack from far out. Fränk should be the most fresh of the bunch and they should take advantage of that. Fränk can't get enough time on Evans to be a threat to him by just attacking on Alpe d'Huez and I don't think Andy is able to put enough time into Cadel on the Alpe either with todays stage in mind.

They probably won't send Fränk on a mission on Galibier though. They'll probably wait untill the Alpe and let Fränk attack very early, hoping that Evans will chase and then Andy can counter - if he's got anything left, that is.

Doubt they will let any Schleck down the road from now on. Any early attack from LT-riders will be marked by each henchman and while it is the last mountain-stage, everyone will pay a much closer attention. They cant do this mistake again.

This (i think) will be wrapped up by a gathered bunch.

 

[TimChristy]

Ricco to sneak out from behind a house again and steamroll everyone on the Alpe

 

[jobiwan]

I really doubt any of the Top 7 are going to get away, Leopard won't let them.

I still haven't decided if Frank is going to go up the road on the Alpe, or try to simply wear Cadel down.

 

[No_Balls]

Isn't it nice that the GC battle has finally ignited?

Oh. The race finishes in two days.

I hate Christian Prudhomme.

Everything went according to plan, didnt it?