2011 Tour de France, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden, 209 km

[warmfuzzies]

Parrulo suggests Ullrich and Armstrong's output numbers were enhanced. Parrulo implies everyone's output numbers this year are not enhanced. I'd prefer to look at objective outputs rather than question the validity of character assumptions.

 

[El Pistolero]

To be honest, I was completely satisfied at the fact that Andy lost no time today. I had been quite worried.

The fact that Frank successfully attacked and Andy gained on Contador was a bonus.

So for me it was a good stage.

Still, it would be nice to see Andy, Basso, or Contador (if he has the legs) attack 8 or 9 km from the finish, to liven things up a bit.

Andy's too much of a girl for that I'm afraid. He made the same mistake as last year at Morzine.

 

[Parrulo]

Parrulo suggests Ullrich and Armstrong's output numbers were enhanced. Parrulo implies everyone's output numbers this year are not enhanced. I'd prefer to look at objective outputs rather than question the validity of character assumptions.

where did i suggest that? anyway no more discussion about this for me on this forum

sorry mods

 

[The Hitch]

Its been 10 years since Laseika and 20 years to the day since Indurain won on Luz.

Every 10 years a Basque rider (of sorts) wins.

In the case of the other 2 it was their only mountain TDF stage win and I feel Samu may go in the same direction.

 

[Bala Verde]

hard as nails:

thejensie Jens Voigt
ah,and just that my day gets not all perfect a bee decided to sting me,what was she thinking?! trying to stopp me???happened after tourmalet

 

[maltiv]

Hmm. With an interview with Sky David Brailsford said he was quite confident that Wiggins would've kept up with the best today. Looking at the watt output, he could be right. The approximately 5.8-6.0 w/kg that the best put out is actually less than what Wiggins did in the Dauphine. He would probably have cracked at some point though but if they keep riding like this we might end up discussing whether or not Wiggins could have won the TDF...

So really, I think that pretty much none of the favourites are in their top shape, not even the Schlecks. Only one who seems to be at his absolute best is Evans, and they desperately need to distance him before the TT...

 

[thehog]

So really, I think that pretty much none of the favourites are in their top shape, not even the Schlecks. Only one who seems to be at his absolute best is Evans, and they desperately need to distance him before the TT...

Top shape? I think you mean they can't prepare to be in top like they used to.

 

[auscyclefan94]

The last time Luz was ridden was by an adrenaline crazed Armstrong @ 1740 VAM.

Yeah, lets call it 'adrenaline crazed'

Why would Samu need 2 minutes on the tt? He can take 2 minutes from Schlecks on the tt and is about the same as Evans.

I don't agree with either of your statements above.

this is the first Mountain stage, there is still little testing going on, to see who really has the legs. After nobody stands out to chase Frank, Basso then decided to take the responsibility.

Basso took over after Voeckler sent Charteau (i think) to the front to chase of which everything stopped and Frank opened upa gap. Basso did a little bit but for most of the last km's he just sucked Evans' wheel.

 

[rata de sentina]

1574 meters ascension VAM

not impressed...why everyone so slow?

In 2003, Ullrich rode the Tourmalet at 1700 VAM
Armstrong Luz Ardiden @ 1740 in 35 minutes and change.

Just saying

Wrong forum.

 

[rata de sentina]

Agree, I think Wiggo would for sure have been with Evans and Basso, and who knows, maybe better.

But if Horner AND Wiggo were theer, they wouldnt have allowed the Schlecks to control the race. Everyone WAS so freeking scared of Contador in the past that there was a fair amount of watching.

I think Horner would have ridden over the top of one of the first two attacks and gone away with or without the Schlecks.

Wrong planet.

 

[rata de sentina]

I am sure we all saw that Frank looked really strong and smooth climbing and as usual Evans looked like a dogs breakfast all over the bike as he wrestled it up the mountain. Yet despite Frank trying to get the win Evans rode that last km faster that Frank, curious.

This is shaping up to get quite interesting because if they have trouble getting time on Evans, Basso and the new fallible Contador then the Shleck temperament might come in to play.

 

[Galic Ho]

On the stage 4 thread, I said I thought Frank would win the Tour.

Dekker_Tifosi said: Fränk is a second tier climber who will LOSE time to the pre-mentioned names.
Fränk Schleck is simply not one of the top contenders. You'll see
We'll see who's right at the end of the Tour, but Fränk will not finish top 5, I tell you now.

jobiwan said: Top 5 at best for Brother Frank.

Galic Ho also gave a good reply.

I think you guys know more than me. I only watch five monuments and three Tours every year.

Do you still think Frank can't win or maybe today has changed your mind. A Podium at least?

In 2009 I thought the Schlecks would both get on the podium. They goofed up too much. Without a doubt Franck is stronger than Andy. Is this significant? Not really. I saw many things on the climb last night. They are:

Evans at this moment is my favourite to win. He did more work than Basso and Andy's accelerations were weaker than Francks. He held on and his chrono is the strongest barring Contadors. AC has a few question marks next to him.

Samu is in fine form. Too bad his TTT blew, but Euskatel did the same thing in the Giro. Hitch knows this yet he's upset. Blow your nose dude and be greatful they let him go out the front. Samu's win also isn't Euskatel biggest of the year. Anton's was in the Giro. Far better win than this, not that Samu didn't deserve a win. Why someone would expect Samu, who was minutes down at stage start, to focus on GC given his team this year have been resolute in their resolve and advertising that stage wins are what they want, is beyond me. Your a fan but don't give a frig about his hopes and dreams? Dude, he doesn't ride for you to get your jollies. Even ACF94 knows this about Cadel, so why upset? Samu has another year left Hitch. He's over a year younger than Evans. I'd expect Contador and Samu to form a loose alliance after today because they are close on GC and they are Spanish. Spanish affections work together often.

Leopard Trek are not too bright. If Franck hadn't gone, all their work would have been for nothing. Franck saved the day. Andy's ego will NEVER allow Franck to win unless he has a crash or loses big time. Andy is a petulant and selfish child at the best of times. Franck is just the bluff like in 2008...even though I think he is in far better shape than Andy. Evans won't fall for it again.

Basso will help Evans if he has to, because he is a minute back on Cadel and the Schlecks and though he has a better chrono than the Schlecks, he doesn't trump Evans. He needs a hand if the brothers try and double punch the opposition. Someone to share the load. AC and Evans come in there. Sure Evans did a bit more work bridging Franck last night, but Szymd was the strongest super domestique. Basso will IMO only get better. Franck needs close to three minutes over Evans before the chrono to be safe. About two minutes to Basso (just floating ideas here). He doesn't have that yet. Franck always gets weaker on the last few climbs of a GC. If Basso gets stronger, Franck is in big trouble, because the time deficit will drop. I think Leopard Trek form may reverse by stage 18/19, with Andy the stronger. Franck needs time by then to podium.

Podium right now IMO is Evans, Andy and Basso. But who knows? Samu has a bit of time to catch, Leopard have the dilemma of Franck being better but Andy's sense of self entitlement will challenge that. Andy had to work for Franck at last years Vuelta and he chose to party. Great guy! I'm thinking Andy will catch up to Franck time wise by Alpe or after it and on current form Cadel should be safe to beat at least one of them in the chrono. The telling thing is that Andy never attacked Contador but Evans and Basso did.

Team strength right now is relatively even.

Cunego is in great shape. Best of the rest. He's also ahead of Samu. I'm guessing he'll finish in 6th. Tommy D is not bad either. Far superior to CVV and Hesjedal. Garmin's GC guy is him. Uran was great, but that leech on his wheel was depressing. The Shack are done and my fantasy team is in trouble again...thanks Andreas, though it really isn't your fault.

Gesink should leave the race and focus on the Vuelta. Immediately. Sky and Rabo still have decent options in the race. There is still a lot of room for people to make the top 10. Even those over 10 minutes back can turn around their woes.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Good analysis as usual Galic Ho. I guess one positive from a disastrous day for rabobank is that Ten Dam is looking quite strong.

Cunego surprised me as I kinda gave up hope on him but if he rides strongly through the Pyrenees and the Alps then he could definetly top 5. Basso looks quite good to me. He has an interesting style for a climber as he doesn't really have a big acceleration but more just a continual high turn of pace on the climbs. He's one of the contenders who doesn't mind setting the tempo on the front.

Evans and basso need to realise that the Schlecks are going to tag team them therefore they need to wake up to that and almost work together in a way.

One thing I must say, Sassi would of loved to of seen both basso and Evans both looking strong duking it out with the big boys.

The Schleck's obsession with Contador was really annoying.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Why would Samu need that much time? You've put him in the same bracket as Cunego. Samu is a good ITT rider, in fact he out-TTed Evans around Spain in 2009, and though he lost 3rd in the ITT last year, not only was he injured but Menchov was the only GC man to put in a good ITT in that stage.

As I like underdogs, you know what would be real freaking outstanding is if Cadel can't win it, that someone like Samu or Basso (who are not what I'd call big underdogs, more slight udogs) would come back and win the whole enchilada.

 

[Maxiton]

Nice race read, Galic Ho. I think our man Contador may have been holding fire a bit, and may have something to show us on Saturday. (Or not. If he really is on his last legs, Saturday may be his last stage in this year's Tour.)

As I like underdogs, you know what would be real freaking outstanding is if Cadel can't win it, that someone like Samu or Basso (who are not what I'd call big underdogs, more slight udogs) would come back and win the whole enchilada.

May very well happen if Conti can't come through with something. I was also impressed by Cunego, who looks like he could place highly..

 

[richwagmn]

I don't think Andy was able to attack - iirc he put in one little dig a few kms from the finish but it was a pretty weak effort, and then he just sat on the rest of the climb. Frank definitely seems to be in better form of the two at the moment.

Frank looked almost Contadoresque today. Seem totally in control. We all know he's a terrible TT rider though. Will need a good cushion to win it.

Evans look good too though he appears to suffer so much it's hard to tell at times.

Andy looked not much better than AC. Was letting some gaps open and just following wheels.

Basso doesn't look like he has any pop. Good tempo but can he drop anyone in an attack?

Not such a bad day for AC. Was the only rider actually covering some of the early attacks on the final climbs. I'd still be worried if I was a contender. I guess we'll see if he can recover from his knee and just how tired he is from the giro.

 

[luckyboy]

I seem to remember Frank time trialing quite well compared to normal somewhere this year. Either Pais Vasco or Paris-Nice - he was close to Andy's time anyway.

Does anyone think Frank could actually beat Andy on GC? If he thinks his form is better than Andy's will he just step aside and work for him? He probably will do that, but it'd be cool/funny if he ended up beating him.


Anyone but Andy

 

[bridgeman]

Nice race read, Galic Ho. I think our man Contador may have been holding fire a bit, and may have something to show us on Saturday. (Or not. If he really is on his last legs, Saturday may be his last stage in this year's Tour.)



May very well happen if Conti can't come through with something. I was also impressed by Cunego, who looks like he could place highly..

I've studied the end of stage 12 several times and was always struck by how stressed Contador was looking. I don't see anything that makes me think he is holding back. He looks genuinely cooked to me.

 

[sultanofhyd]

I've studied the end of stage 12 several times and was always struck by how stressed Contador was looking. I don't see anything that makes me think he is holding back. He looks genuinely cooked to me.

I don't know how he managed to look that awful all the way and still held on all the way up the Tourmalet and till the last km of Ardiden.

 

[karlboss]

I don't know how he managed to look that awful all the way and still held on all the way up the Tourmalet and till the last km of Ardiden.

Faking and biding time. The climb looked too slow and comfortable for the favourites. Basso looked composed, as did Evans. Even allowing for a tough Giro and crashes, I don't think contador is that far out of form. Nor do I believ it of Andy Schleck.

 

[sublimit]

Once I arrived at your post I've read 3 more posts of sublimit and I am starting to understand what D_T and you are saying

Pure trolling indeed.

I didn't set out to troll but I must admit it does end up looking like that. My original post was about Feillu and then TLR starts going on about Cav being reckless etc etc and the usual garbage.

So I mocked Gesink in return knowing a certain couple of Dutch posters wouldn't be able to handle it and I wasn't disappointed - 2 satisfied customers.

BTW i have Gesink in my Velogames fantasy team so I recognize he can ride when he's on form. Anyway lets move on.

 

[gatete]

I don't know why I feel like this is a Giro 08 all over again, Andy is the Ricco, Frank, the killer, Cadel as Gibo, it just feel weird to not know what to expect of AC, for some other riders is easier to spot wether they cracked or not, with him is just hard to see if he actually lost the Tour, that's the way I felt 3 years ago in May.

 

[Arnout]

Euskaltel won three stages in the Tour de France. Laiseka attacking from the bottom of Luz Ardiden, Mayo attacking 7-8km from the finishing line of l'Alpe and Sanchez attacking from the bottom of Luz Ardiden.

Seems they have to do it the hard way. Makes it all the more beautiful though.

 

[Arnout]

I don't know why I feel like this is a Giro 08 all over again, Andy is the Ricco, Frank, the killer, Cadel as Gibo, it just feel weird to not know what to expect of AC, for some other riders is easier to spot wether they cracked or not, with him is just hard to see if he actually lost the Tour, that's the way I felt 3 years ago in May.

This is blasphemy. I am not gonna compare Cipollini and Farrar either, do I?

 

[dlwssonic]

LOL when harmon said there will be hands over heads at rabo when gesink dropped. In the starting of the last km evans was driving it on and he dropped contador like LOL. who would have thought that.