2011 Tour de France Stage 16 (18/7/2011): Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux - Gap, 162.5km

[Sem Travões]

Perfect day for a break to win (like last year). My guess is that apart from the usual French teams the "they can fill a cab now" Radioshack team will be betting all for a stage win.
If not in this stage I really can't see where they can win one (the TT perhaps but even so its a long shot), I hope Paulinho goes for it he's been saving his legs lately, with litle or nothing left to do so.

 

[The Hitch]

Voeckler entering into alliance with Gilbert, giving him the stage in return for time on the yellow?

What does Gilbert get from that alliance?

 

[LaFlorecita]

What does Gilbert get from that alliance?

A stage win.

 

[LaFlorecita]

then that's where evans, frank and basso could lose (serious) time

Is Evans such a bad descender? I've always thought Andy was worse than Cadel.

 

[The Hitch]

A stage win.

Hes going to get the stage win anyway. Slowing down to help Voeckler can only harm not aid his chances of getting the stage.

Is Evans such a bad descender? I've always thought Andy was worse than Cadel.

Evans is a good descender IMO.

 

[Delicato]

Evans is actually quite an able descender. Better than Contador, I think.

 

[Sem Travões]

Hes going to get the stage win anyway. Slowing down to help Voeckler can only harm not aid his chances of getting the stage.




Evans is a good descender IMO.

Hummm I don't think any of them, and other GC contenders aswell (apart from Voeckler and Samu)will take risks at the descend, they didn't take any going up, why taking it going down

 

[LaFlorecita]

Hes going to get the stage win anyway. Slowing down to help Voeckler can only harm not aid his chances of getting the stage.


Evans is a good descender IMO.

Yeah, I only stated the obvious.
Posted by nomendil:

Voeckler entering into alliance with Gilbert, giving him the stage in return for time on the yellow?

About Cadel:That's exactly what I thought.

 

[Dedelou]

climb is not steep enough. Very easy.

This is the third week there are not easy stage any more . The climbs are not steep , this is true , but the racing is what make hard at this point and after the rest day expect some interesting happening. The sprinters team will work "hard" to prevent the likes of Rojas and Gilbert to attack.. The rider who descend well will go for the stage win and the mountain jersey race is tight so so hungry guy (Roy type ) will make some moves for the points at cat 2 summit

 

[LaFlorecita]

Evans is a good descender IMO.

Evans is actually quite an able descender. Better than Contador, I think.

So I was right; Andy is worse than Cadel

 

[Jamsque]

HTC are going to chase down any move Gilbert gets in to defend green, I don't think he'll win unless his team brings the race back together by the final climb.

 

[hfer07]

I foresee a move from:
Voeckler to shake things up, followed by Gilbert, & perhaps Chavanel could have a go too.
even if the gradient isn't enough to make differences between the GC riders, It could be entertaining on the Green Jersey competition, so the pace will be high before & during the climb to ensure no one dares to attack, but the names above have the capacity to take off and do a dare devil descend.....

 

[dlwssonic]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yISN7pgfCtY

evans is actually a really good descender if he wants to do it.
This comes from his MTB skills.
However im not sure if he is willing to take the risk and he may end up descending safely down with the favorites.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I foresee a move from:
Voeckler to shake things up, followed by Gilbert, & perhaps Chavanel could have a go too.
even if the gradient isn't enough to make differences between the GC riders, It could be entertaining on the Green Jersey competition, so the pace will be high before & during the climb to ensure no one dares to attack, but the names above have the capacity to take off and do a dare devil descend.....

He will be a marked man. If he goes, there will be GC men following. But someone could miss the boat, I'm hoping for a Schleck...

 

[maltiv]

Movistar will do all in their power to make it into a bunch sprint in which Rojas could be there but Cavendish definitely won't be. Why wouldn't they? It's their best and only chance to get the green jersey.

 

[labratty]

He will be a marked man. If he goes, there will be GC men following. But someone could miss the boat, I'm hoping for a Schleck...

+1
I do still think he will go. As I said earlier the decent is small and *should* not create gaps but over the next two days Tommy has one huge weapon on his side. The GC guys are very very nervous, scared to lose rather than chasing the win, and that could lead to mistakes. One mistake and Tommy perhaps sneaks away with this. One thing I am pretty sure about is that if he sits back as well somebody else will take it off him.

 

[El Pistolero]

HTC are going to chase down any move Gilbert gets in to defend green, I don't think he'll win unless his team brings the race back together by the final climb.

And who will chase down Gilbert if he attacks on the climb and/or descend? HTC have no one to close that gap.

Besides, by now they should have realized it's impossible for Gilbert to win green through collecting points.

 

[just some guy]

Tommy V and Sammy will be marked to death from now on.

There will be no chance to get away unless someone is asleep at the wheel. Hopefully fränk will be cause Andy will not know what to do.

 

[dlwssonic]

Tommy V and Sammy will be marked to death from now on.

There will be no chance to get away unless someone is asleep at the wheel. Hopefully fränk will be cause Andy will not know what to do.

exactly what i was thinking. they will either be followed or chased down by the gc contenders teams.

 

[benpounder]

If a suitable break gets away, I suspect they will not be challenged. The finishing climb is a difficult big ring ride, and the downhill into Gap is treacherous - I don’t think the GC candidates will want to press things.

Someone threatening to another's overall ambitions in the lead could lead to carnage in the last 8km.

 

[Parrulo]

what about the same guy as last year?

 

[VeloCity]

Can't see any point in Voeckler trying to shake things up - I think at this point he'll be sitting back and taking it easy, saving as much as possible for the Alps. I doubt he believes yet that he can actually win the Tour, but after his ride through the Pyrenees, he must feel confident that he's got a shot at finishing pretty high up on GC. His job now is to try to keep yellow for as long as possible through the Alps, which means most likely he'll be riding defensively from here on, at least until he loses yellow. No point in expending energy in these transition stages unless he absolutely has to.

 

[luckyboy]

Gilbert/Sanchez/breakaway for the win

 

[jobiwan]

I think we could see Hesjedal in a break in the next two stages, I'd think 16 would be a better bet.

Hesjedal FTW!

 

[therhodeo]

I can't imagine Sammy not pushing that descent.