2011 Tour de France Stage 18 - Pinerolo - Galibier Serre-Chevalier 200.5km

[Alpe d'Huez]

Samu and Alberto does a dig on the Izoard. With them go Evans and the Schlecks. The Schlecks cracks (not the spanish word) on the descent and lose a minute there. Evans will falter when half of the Galibier is done after some massive efforts from AC, Samu has been sent up the road.

Ha! I don't see that. The Galibier is way too long to stay out like that. But if you're right, you did call it first!

I see a select group over the Izoard, no serious attacks on the descent, and some 40 riders heading up the Galibier at the start. Several riders getting slowly shelled out the back, with the serious attacks not coming until 10k or so from the finish.

I like Contador for the stage. Evans and Basso not far behind. The Schlecks are a question mark at this point.

 

[Dedelou]

Voeckler in an interview after today's stage said he is expecting Contador to attack on the Agnel already. Not sure how serious that was, but if that really happens, we will get a great race to watch.

In keeping with this Tour I expect something we did not expect at all to happen that will require each contender to do something different than what they planned.. Look at yesterday.. a crash at the bottom of the last climb changed contador's plans forcing him to attack in the descent.

 

[its like that]

Evans to finish the stage with Contador today and everyone who continue to doubt how good a form he is in this tour to look more stupid than they already are.

 

[warmfuzzies]

For teams so inclined, tomorrow's stage will be difficult to get their climbing trains set up at the base of Galibier. I wouldn't be surprised to see BMC and Leopard burn their climbing helpers on the slopes of Izoard. A few might be able to catch up on the descent before Galibier, but I'll shoot myself is the whole peloton is together that late in what should be an epic stage.

 

[UpTheRoad]

Evans to finish the stage with Contador today and everyone who continue to doubt how good a form he is in this tour to look more stupid than they already are.

If that happens, he'd probably have to give all the credit in the world to Ivan Basso. If Cadel gets dropped at any point, he'll look for a wheel and Basso is a perfect one to take for a climber like Evans. Two diesels motoring up steady and consistent.

His form would not really be in question if a woman had actually been watching the race while standing in the road on stage 1.

 

[Dedelou]

Vanendert should go in the break today. Would lock up the KOM.

Do you think Euskatel will make it easy for him to do so?

 

[Dedelou]

Interested in peoples' thoughts on Vanendert.

Will he get in the early break, risking that if it gets caught (which seems likely) then he won't get any KOTM double points at the finish, or ride with the lead group and count on no one having any reason to follow him if he attacks on the final climb?

And does Sanchez care enough about KOTM to mark Vanendert? Or has he got greater things to worry about, like the possibility of a podium and helping Contador to a win?

samu is after a podium and the KoM jersey . Helping contador happens when it helps his own goals. But weather Vanendert is allowed the break will be decided by a few teams , including of course Euskatel

 

[More Strides than Rides]

I'm going in to work at 8:30 in the morning. Stages usually end around 11:00-11:30 a.m. East coast N America time. I'm not coming back from work until 6:30 Friday afternoon. Thats all I'm going to talk about that.

Berto has shown he's ready for the alps. Schlecks have shown a crack in their Armour, but they will be strong enough on a stage to roll over that vulnerability. Evans is the only real question, like many have pointed to already. I think he'll fight like the dog he is, but will lose out to an understandably superior Contador, but with enough time to stay ahead. Probably finish around the Schlecks, maybe not with them exactly, but for all intensive purposes.

 

[Dedelou]

Not anymore. That was long time ago.

Not so if you count the fans and the beer bottles on the road side. EVen in the Germain era, Dutch fans ruled and Bourg d'oisans was renamed in Dutch: "H %^&* hamm "

 

[mewmewmew13]

First of all, TUARTS this is one of the best thread starts I have ever seen! VERY nice work!!

I can't wait for this stage...wow.
I'm still predicting that Samu might end up on the 3rd step of the podium.

As for winner tomorrow...??? who has the most strength and mental fortitude left?! I don't see Andy doing this...
I'll bet Cadel and Basso do a great job and Alberto is a good pick too.

but there may be a surprise stage winner!?!

 

[Dedelou]

Contador sez the Galibier stage is the stage tomorrow where the race is won or lost because of its length and because of 3 HC mountains. He says the Alpe will be fast but not long enough to tire people.

The last 8 or km from Lauteret up the Galibier are not super steep but probably steep enough to tire down riders. Especially after the two previous ascents. And the altitude will be more of a factor. It is pretty thin air at 2500 meters.

He also mentioned that it depends on the wind. Having ridden this beast (galibeir) I can assure you he is right. It is very very exposed throughout and if the wind is strong it will discourage attacks and make it very hard to get separation.

I make it a "must " to religiously climb the Galibier sucking ladies wheels only.. wind no longer matter in those circumstances and it leaves me with enough reserve at the top to be able to cheer the real climbers when they arrive .. later on.

( for clarity since my english can be curious at times: I start way ahead of the pack , LOL )

 

[Dedelou]

Do you work at a desk? Or do you have to actually do stuff at your job? Happily, I've got myself a cubicle job, so I have the Tour streaming on one of my monitors every day. Productivity drops off faster than a Frenchman in an Alpine parking lot when the ticker gets down to 10km, but it's definitely worth it.

If you don't have access to a computer the whole time, you might find a well-timed lunch break to be the right medicine. Sorry I couldn't be more help.

Hey.. I believe there was a sign there in big bold letters in french that said : ENTREE" the rest of the pack went left but those dutiful french riders could not resist following the invite

 

[karlboss]

Maybe my enthusiasm was dented by the pyrenees. To me Contador is realistically 2 min behind evans. One minute each MTF and it comes to a TT most would back him to win (play with the times as you want). Doesn't scream penultimate climb attack to me. Voekler and Evans to hang tough. Attacks should come from Basso and Leopard earlier than the final climb, but won't. Would dearly love something on agnel from some folk in the top 20-30, Vanendert would per perfect.

From the favourites there'll be an attack shortly before the top of the izoard (Contador/Sanchez) and a decent to see if anyone is shaken loose, it will come back together on the decent (everyone who matters anyway). Relatively slow tempo riding for most of Galibier and then attacks only in the last 5km of the stage. No big time gaps. Contador to win from Andy +5 both of whom come over Jelle +12 who was allowed to go early. Frank, Basso, Sanchez, Evans to finish 30 seconds down. Voekler at 60+ seconds with Rolland (who has been super impressive)

 

[The Hitch]

From the favourites there'll be an attack shortly before the top of the izoard (Contador/Sanchez) and a decent to see if anyone is shaken loose, it will come back together on the decent (everyone who matters anyway). Relatively slow tempo riding for most of Galibier and then attacks only in the last 5km of the stage. No big time gaps. Contador to win from Andy +5 both of whom come over Jelle +12 who was allowed to go early. Frank, Basso, Sanchez, Evans to finish 30 seconds down. Voekler at 60+ seconds with Rolland (who has been super impressive)

The bit between Iozard and Galibier is too flat for Contador and Sanchez. 4k was too much today. 20k on their own against the evil alliance (Schlecks+ Evans+ others) has no chance tomorow

 

[LaFleur]

The bit between Iozard and Galibier is too flat for Contador and Sanchez. 4k was too much today. 20k on their own against the evil alliance (Schlecks+ Evans+ others) has no chance tomorow

+ I can't see Sanchez and Contador shaking everybody off on the climb, Schlecks and Evans will defo be trailing 'em coming into the descent.

 

[karlboss]

The bit between Iozard and Galibier is too flat for Contador and Sanchez. 4k was too much today. 20k on their own against the evil alliance (Schlecks+ Evans+ others) has no chance tomorow

Sanchez I think has to try, if he's going for the win or even the podium, over Evans for instance I rate his TT on a par and he climbs a little better, over Andy Shleck he climbs worse and TTs better. Where can he make time he needs? The one advantage over the others is going downhill. He would be foolish to give it everything as you point out 20 km is too far, but i think he would be foolish not to nudge it a little and see what happens.

If even one favourite misses the cut he's gained something. Even if it is only one favourite off the back having to drag himself with little help over that flat 20km to catch up again, it's something. That is surely worth 500m of uphill effort and short push at the top of the decent.

 

[No_Balls]

Ha! I don't see that. The Galibier is way too long to stay out like that. But if you're right, you did call it first!

It was half joke-half serious (expect some serious fire works during Izoard). But i realized how long this beast of a climb is so you are probably right.

I see a select group over the Izoard, no serious attacks on the descent, and some 40 riders heading up the Galibier at the start. Several riders getting slowly shelled out the back, with the serious attacks not coming until 10k or so from the finish.

40 riders? Thats way too many. I have a gut feeling that this is not the Jens Voigt/Gerdemann or even Canc kind of stage, but i really think that Saxobanks will be active, Hernandez/Navarro/maybe CAS, setting a furious pace over Izoard. That will mean damage for BMC and LT.

I like Contador for the stage. Evans and Basso not far behind. The Schlecks are a question mark at this point.

Cadel/Basso will be one minute after. No more, no less

 

[ggusta]

Evans to finish the stage with Contador today and everyone who continue to doubt how good a form he is in this tour to look more stupid than they already are.

How do you know how stupid I look?? :::looking all around...did he hack my webcam???:::

 

[ggusta]

Weather report? Wind direction and wind speed as they approach the final climb? It's going to be crucial for Alberto (the wind).

 

[ggusta]

Weather report? Wind direction and wind speed as they approach the final climb? It's going to be crucial for Alberto (the wind).

 

[jobiwan]

Boy I hope this race is good.
If they can dislodge Evans out of the running, I think I'll be happy, even if Andy loses a little time. (Not that I think he will of course )

 

[sashimono]

Boy I hope this race is good...

Me too. But I'm really worried the Schlecks are going to figure out a way to make it boring.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I really, really, really hate to say this, but Cadel is going to lose big time in tomorow's stage 18. The reason: Phil Liggett picked Cadel to do well over AC and AS. And we all know how well Phil picks 'em.

 

[kurtinsc]

If the flat between the last two climbs is too much for anyone to attack earlier, I fail to see how Evans should lose big time on this stage. The first two climbs seem to be more the type that would put him in difficulty, the last one doesn't have real steep stuff until the last 4km.

If Contador/Schleck don't make real moves until then, Evans should be able to handle them until the last few km, and even then there are some less steep parts where he may be able to claw back some seconds he lost on the steeper stuff.

If they race it that way and he doesn't chase down every break... it looks more like a stage where he loses 30 seconds, not 1:30.

 

[Ferminal]

2 MTFs so far, and both have been business as usual for the Tour. I don't know why I let myself get excited over days like this, knowing that I will probably be let down.

If only Contador sent his men to the front for Agnello and Izoard. No other teams will be interested in doing it, apart from Leopard pretending to work by sending O'Grady to the front. Unfortunately I'm not sure Bjarne will let Saxo hit the first two climbs hard. If they did I'm sure they could reduce the main group to 10-15.

Coverage starts at 1330, according to Steephill. That is perfect, just in time for the actual categorised climbing of Agnello to begin.