2011 Tour de France Stage 18 - Pinerolo - Galibier Serre-Chevalier 200.5km

[VeloCity]

8 riders within 3:49 of each other, 4 of whom (imo) have a realistic shot at winning the Tour, the others more of long shots but still within striking distance and who knows what can happen. I expect the fireworks might start early, as Contador, Andy, Frank, Sanchez, Basso and Cunego all need to gain some time to have any shot at winning the Tour. Evans and Voekler will just be trying to keep up or minimize their losses.

Gonna be fun to watch.

 

[Cobrinha]

Just a quick betting related question here. Although personally I believe it's a stage for the GC favourites is there any chance a breakaway or an outsider can take the stage or at least finish top three? Here are some odds on some guys I have taken a look at.

Uran 66/1
Gesink 66/1
Kreuziger 50/1
Ten Dam 100/1
Mollema 100/1

And a raft of outsiders like Egoi Martinez, Verdugo, Karpets and Luis Leon Sanchez are at 200/1. Uran and Gesink look best for me as it will need an excellent climber to win this and they are both top climbers. Do they have the form though? All odds at bet365 if anyone is interested.

 

[hrotha]

I doubt the breakaway will make it tomorrow, but if it does, I doubt Urán will be in it. Gesink doesn't seem to have recovered enough, Mollema got in the break today so he'll be tired (but then again, EBH got in the break yesterday), and Ten Dam has been struggling ever since he crashed. If there's a breakaway, Kreuziger could be a decent bet. If you want to go with one of those outsiders, I'd choose Verdugo, although he's more consistent than brilliant. Definitely not Karpets or Luis León.

 

[jsem94]

Just a quick betting related question here. Although personally I believe it's a stage for the GC favourites is there any chance a breakaway or an outsider can take the stage or at least finish top three? Here are some odds on some guys I have taken a look at.

Uran 66/1
Gesink 66/1
Kreuziger 50/1
Ten Dam 100/1
Mollema 100/1

And a raft of outsiders like Egoi Martinez, Verdugo, Karpets and Luis Leon Sanchez are at 200/1. Uran and Gesink look best for me as it will need an excellent climber to win this and they are both top climbers. Do they have the form though? All odds at bet365 if anyone is interested.

I don't think we'll find Uran in the break, he's too close in GC - plus other riders like Taaramae will make sure he gets chased down if so.

 

[search]

Gesink doesn't seem to have recovered enough, Mollema got in the break today so he'll be tired, and Ten Dam has been struggling ever since he crashed.

+ la montagne des Hollandais finally arrives on friday

 

[Gubby Allen]

Just seen the thick snow, how it looks at the finish of this 24 hours earlier.

What's the chances of a good climber who was dropped himself way out of GC contention being let clear to win?

Leipheimer & Gesink are the obvious two. Maybe Kreuziger (over 2 hrs down now) Egoi or either of the Garmin pair.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Whew, that took longer than I thought.

I wanted to this, and I can only do it today before I'm away from computer.

Hope I did you justice Hitch. Knowing the luck these build ups have, it'll be snowing and it'll end in Briancon.

Thanks too I should add to many of the sites that have information on these climbs, hope I haven't ripped too much of your work.

Well done, sir.

 

[auscyclefan94]

If Evans holds on tonight, he'll win the tour. Might be a big call though I think that is the case but tonight will be very tough. He'll have to be on a good day tonight!

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

If Evans holds on tonight, he'll win the tour. Might be a big call though I think that is the case but tonight will be very tough. He'll have to be on a good day tonight!

Please don't talk in your funny time zones when the race is in France.

 

[Cimber]

If Evans holds on tonight, he'll win the tour. Might be a big call though I think that is the case but tonight will be very tough. He'll have to be on a good day tonight!

There is still Alpe D'huez which he usually doent like. But ye if he can hold on tomorrow he will get a huge moral boost + yellow (probably) so that he can outperform himself friday

 

[auscyclefan94]

If he can stay with them on the Galibier, he can stay with them on the stage to the Alpe. He said he prefers AlepD'Huez this year because he'll be going to the climb less tired.

 

[Escarabajo]

If Evans holds on tonight, he'll win the tour. Might be a big call though I think that is the case but tonight will be very tough. He'll have to be on a good day tonight!

Do they race at night?

That is very dangerous. I think I am going to change my vote on the "Dangerous Descents Thread"

 

[Escarabajo]

+ la montagne des Hollandais finally arrives on friday

Not anymore. That was long time ago.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Looks like no Galibier

the galibie rwill be in

oh god, how many times do I have to tell you snow doesn't matter as long as they don't do it in downhil and even then they will wipe it clean, it isn't snowing anymore

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

any chance contador will attack on first climb?? he can't wait till galibier as it's not steep enough and too risky and late in the final. man I expect a big show

 

[alberto.legstrong]

gonna be good, i can't actually watch any of it tomorrow, are there any re-caps online in the evening?

versus is just beyond insufferable these days but it's so much more pleasant to watch it in hd than a cruddy 'net feed

 

[The Barb]

Do they race at night?

That is very dangerous. I think I am going to change my vote on the "Dangerous Descents Thread"

Ha! Very good.

I often find myself saying "tonight" on these threads.

Here in New Zealand the stages usually finish around 3:30am. I have to get up for work at 7:30am. By the end of three weeks I reckon I'm just about as wrecked as some of the riders. I'd be lying if I said I stayed up for every flat stage but I'd say I've watched all but 3 or 4 of the stages live to the finish.

Next year I'm hoping to do what one of my friends did this year - go to Phuket (Thailand) for a couple of weeks. The timing is perfect (stages begin at about 6pm) and you get a winter holiday on the beach.

Anyway ... I'm getting off topic.

 

[Tuarts]

Updated the times in the OPs. Didn't want to play around with sorting them out, I will if I get to a computer before stage starts.

Some info is probably redundant now. Basso seems to have lost himself huge amount of time and Voeckler doesn't have his 2min buffer anymore, so increasingly unlikely (even more) of him winning now.

"Famous Five"

Suprised no one has posted about the groan-worthy song reference I slipped in somewhere too.

 

[BYOP88]

Epic OP, thanks Tuarts. I hope the riders make the stage epic too.

 

[royalpig180]

gonna be good, i can't actually watch any of it tomorrow, are there any re-caps online in the evening?

versus is just beyond insufferable these days but it's so much more pleasant to watch it in hd than a cruddy 'net feed

Versus only shows the stage like 4 times throughout the course of the day and night...

 

[FrankDay]

He'll have to be on a good day tonight!

The English language, combined with the world-wide internet connectiveness (is that a word, the spell checker says no), leads to such implausible speech.

 

[Ragerod]

I expect them to take it easy over the Agnel, Leopard to set the pace up the Izoard thinning the peloton to 50-60 riders, Szmyd to get to the front on the Galibier and the GC guys to attack in the last 5km.

 

[davestoller]

Contador sez the Galibier stage is the stage tomorrow where the race is won or lost because of its length and because of 3 HC mountains. He says the Alpe will be fast but not long enough to tire people.

The last 8 or km from Lauteret up the Galibier are not super steep but probably steep enough to tire down riders. Especially after the two previous ascents. And the altitude will be more of a factor. It is pretty thin air at 2500 meters.

He also mentioned that it depends on the wind. Having ridden this beast (galibeir) I can assure you he is right. It is very very exposed throughout and if the wind is strong it will discourage attacks and make it very hard to get separation.

 

[Lupetto]

any chance contador will attack on first climb?? he can't wait till galibier as it's not steep enough and too risky and late in the final. man I expect a big show

At the 2007 Giro Riccò and Piepoli ripped the peloton in pieces on the Agnello, was a great stage with lots of attacks later on Izoard and on the steep ramps in Briancon. Agnello is too difficult to waste it and not get rid of a lot of helpers. Maybe Saxo can put two guys in the break for that part between Briancon and Lautaret. Unfortunately there is this section of 30 km. Granon instead of Galibier would have been great. I hate these "flats" between passes.

 

[jsem94]

I hate these "flats" between passes.

QFT

Without the flats, we'd see fireworks already on the Agnello.