2011 Tour de France Stage 18 - Pinerolo - Galibier Serre-Chevalier 200.5km

[Grayguard]

From Evans perspective, how should he play this?

He has to ride defensively... but how?

If I were him, I'd just mark Andy and Alberto. I'd let Frank, Basso, Cunego and even Voeckler go if they attack.

He's not going to be able to chase every attack if he tries he's dead. But if he sticks with Andy and Alberto, they'll have to work to bring back those other riders as well.

Now I'm not saying Evans is capable of wheelsucking those two the whole way. But if he could, then would they force him to chase those others?

All of the other riders would present more of a problem for Andy and Alberto at a smaller gap then they would for Evans. Andy wouldn't chase Frank... but Contador would need to before Evans would. His leads on both along with his ITT advantage over Andy seem to not put the same pressure on him to chase attacks from everyone.

He could still fail obviously, but I'd think it would be more from lack of strength in general, not because he'd be required to chase everything down. Heck, he may JUST mark Contador (which would be a very wimpy way to ride in some ways), and force Contador to mark the attacks from both Schlecks or lose the tour. I don't think Contador would throw away his chance to win simply because Evans won't work to chase Andy down.

I believe you'll see a Contador on the attack, not on the defence... So from the view of Cadel, it's mostly a matter of following Contador as close as he can.

Now, if one of Schlecks makes a *real* attack, and actually manage to get away, thats another matter... One I would like to see I hope it will happen, but I am afraid we will have to settle for Contador making this race thrilling

 

[just some guy]

it is on unless it Snows I guess - http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/prudhomme-confirms-tour-de-france-queen-stage-on-galibier

 

[Tank Engine]

If Andy and Alberto will be ahead (with a 1 or 2 minutes lead) then I don't think Frank will risk an attack, because it will be a possible way for Evans to limit his losses to go after/with him.

Point taken. I had in mind the idea that Frank would attack when and if the others weaken (a la Armstrong vs Wiggins from a couple of years ago), but clearly did not write that.

Re the wind: That headwind is definitely going to be a factor on the Galibier. I said that a break would have no chance, but it is likely be of crucial significance. I can't see where Contador could successfully attack from the top of the Izoard to about 4-5km from the top of the Galibier and he wants to take more time than that would allow. The GC contenders will be looking to link up with teamates on the last descent. With the conditions as they are, an attack might go pear shape, but AC is going to attack, full stop.

 

[Grayguard]

So honestly - what does everyone think will happen on this stage?

I believe we'll see more attacks from Contador, he will drop some of the GC contenders, and likely be content with that. Then work with the remaining towards gaining time. (It depends who he ends out with ofc.)

 

[khardung la]

For me it is about what Contador will do. I think SB has reserved 2-3 riders for this stage, while Leopard has few guns remaining.

Contador may attack in the Izoard to get rid of some GT riders and then he needs a group of +15 riders to make the flat part and the first part of Galibier with guarantees that they can maintain the lead. So probably they will like to have those 2-3 guys scaped in the middle part of Izoard so Contador can join them. I know that is a classic strategy, but sometimes the more obvious strategies are the ones working better.

 

[jsem94]

I'm calling it now: Jelle Vanendert to attack halfway through the climb, Contador to catch him further up the climb and Vanendert to stay on his wheel til finish. It'll be an Etna reprise, Vanendert being Rujano and AS trying to bridge and failing like Scarponi.

Frank will be pulling Andy and another 5 riders or so. Samu Sanchez to finish 3rd on the stage together with Ivan, having dropped the Schlecket group.

I think we'll see this:

AC, Vanendert +0
Samu, Ivan +30
Cuddles, AS, FS, TV +1.10
Rolland, Cunego, Uran, Tommy D +1.30

Unless Vanendert goes for the break of course, which is very likely.

 

[cineteq]

From Evans perspective, how should he play this?

He has to ride defensively... but how?

If I were him, I'd just mark Andy and Alberto. I'd let Frank, Basso, Cunego and even Voeckler go if they attack.

Contador is the only guy Evans should worry about, unless, of course, Contador bonks...

 

[ericthesportsman6]

Vanendert should go in the break today. Would lock up the KOM.

 

[Publicus]

From Evans perspective, how should he play this?

He has to ride defensively... but how?

If I were him, I'd just mark Andy and Alberto. I'd let Frank, Basso, Cunego and even Voeckler go if they attack.

He's not going to be able to chase every attack if he tries he's dead. But if he sticks with Andy and Alberto, they'll have to work to bring back those other riders as well.

Now I'm not saying Evans is capable of wheelsucking those two the whole way. But if he could, then would they force him to chase those others?

All of the other riders would present more of a problem for Andy and Alberto at a smaller gap then they would for Evans. Andy wouldn't chase Frank... but Contador would need to before Evans would. His leads on both along with his ITT advantage over Andy seem to not put the same pressure on him to chase attacks from everyone.

He could still fail obviously, but I'd think it would be more from lack of strength in general, not because he'd be required to chase everything down. Heck, he may JUST mark Contador (which would be a very wimpy way to ride in some ways), and force Contador to mark the attacks from both Schlecks or lose the tour. I don't think Contador would throw away his chance to win simply because Evans won't work to chase Andy down.

I honestly think BMC is going to be overwhelmed from the start tomorrow. Smart riding would be to eliminate ALL of Cadel's support. It is in almost every GC contenders best interest to put time into Voekler and Evans. So it is in their collective interest to dispatch him early.

 

[Cimber]

Facts:

-Higehst altitude finish ever in the history of Tour the France (Tour history is written here)
-It wont be snowy, but it will be very cold and extremely windy
-Bertie is back and both him and the bros need to attack Evans, which means there will be alot of attacks. Real ones.
-They will pass 3 HC climbs, all above 2k meters.


=This stage will be EPIC.

 

[jobiwan]

Just an idea, Tuarts. Do you think you could edit the times of the GC riders? Since I think they've changed since you originally made the preview!

 

[just some guy]

I honestly think BMC is going to be overwhelmed from the start tomorrow. Smart riding would be to eliminate ALL of Cadel's support. It is in almost every GC contenders best interest to put time into Voekler and Evans. So it is in their collective interest to dispatch him early.

And the only way BMC will be able to counter some of this will be to get guys in the break - but in may not help much.

I also think Contador will hope that Lepo do this so he can shelter some of his guys as well.

 

[iZnoGouD]

just an idea, tuarts. Do you think you could edit the times of the gc riders? Since i think they've changed since you originally made the preview!

+1 +1 +1 +1 +1

 

[RdBiker]

So honestly - what does everyone think will happen on this stage?

I believe we'll see more attacks from Contador, he will drop some of the GC contenders, and likely be content with that. Then work with the remaining towards gaining time. (It depends who he ends out with ofc.)

I'm afraid we'll see a big group reaching the foot of the Galibier and then attacks from the favourites just 10K from the finish

I'd like to see the fireworks much earlier but I think the transition part before Galibier will make the stage much duller than it seems.

 

[Cimber]

WE will see firework on this stage cos there are so many favorties that desperately need time on Evans and Tommy V and time is running out.

 

[Grayguard]

I honestly think BMC is going to be overwhelmed from the start tomorrow. Smart riding would be to eliminate ALL of Cadel's support. It is in almost every GC contenders best interest to put time into Voekler and Evans. So it is in their collective interest to dispatch him early.

I agree that Leopard-Trek could put the hurt on from the start... they have a really strong team after all. But will they risk it? From what they have shown so far, I wont hold my breath. It could be the making of an epic stage though

 

[Descender]

The first 15kms after Briançon effectively turn this stage into the climb to Galibier feat. Agnello and Izoard.

Not even the best Pantani in 1994 could hold his 1:30 lead at the top of the Izoard on that infamous road. He had to give up and let himself be caught again by the group.

 

[Captain_Obvious]

What a nice startpost. Its going to be epic tomorrow.

 

[dgodave]

The first 15kms after Briançon effectively turn this stage into the climb to Galibier feat. Agnello and Izoard.

Not even the best Pantani in 1994 could hold his 1:30 lead at the top of the Izoard on that infamous road. He had to give up and let himself be caught again by the group.

What about 3 riders? Enough of a group to manage the transition btwn climbs?
.

 

[Sophistic]

i think a lot of people are gonna be disappointed tomorrow, i dont expect fireworks, in the end the Galibier is simply not a good climb for attacks even after two tough mountains.

 

[Mellow Velo]

What about 3 riders? Enough of a group to manage the transition btwn climbs?
.

Doubtful.
It's not just the 20km descent off the Izoard, but the first 20kms after Briancon.
The gradient favours the big diesels, until they get to the top of the Lauteret.

I actually don't think BMC will have a problem running a train side-by-side with LEOTARD, until the last 10kms.

This is the stage where the war of attrition really bites, but we may have to wait until Friday to witness the full effect.

 

[Magnus]

The first 15kms after Briançon effectively turn this stage into the climb to Galibier feat. Agnello and Izoard.

Not even the best Pantani in 1994 could hold his 1:30 lead at the top of the Izoard on that infamous road. He had to give up and let himself be caught again by the group.

Izoard wasn't in the TdF '94

 

[knewcleardaze]

Call me a pessimist, but I don't have high hopes for an epic battle on this stage. I think there will be more riders trying to hold their position than to actually go for the KO.
I don't know what's with the Schleck brothers?
Contador may be a bit tired from the Giro.
Evans really needs a quality effort.
I think this Tour is still open to any of the top 8 guys in GC.
I'd like to see Voeckler hang in there.
Hopefully it will be an entertaining stage.
My uninformed selection.

1) Samu
2) Voeckler
3) Evans

 

[The Barb]

Interested in peoples' thoughts on Vanendert.

Will he get in the early break, risking that if it gets caught (which seems likely) then he won't get any KOTM double points at the finish, or ride with the lead group and count on no one having any reason to follow him if he attacks on the final climb?

And does Sanchez care enough about KOTM to mark Vanendert? Or has he got greater things to worry about, like the possibility of a podium and helping Contador to a win?

 

[jsem94]

If Vanendert goes for the break, Samu won't care. But he will try to pick up points on the HC mtns if possible, when the peloton passes just move up to the front and catch the leftover points.