2011 Tour de France Stage 18 - Pinerolo - Galibier Serre-Chevalier 200.5km

[Zoncolan]

I hope they don't neuter the stage.
Basso will be the guy who makes the race tomorrow. Szmyd to make Agnel a real torture.
Evans will lose time (amount depending on where the attacks start), probably not huge.
Tommy V. loses yellow and drops out of top 5 probably.

 

[jobiwan]

This is gonna be good!!! Andy and Contador harkening back to yesteryear.
Hopefully the Galibier is on, and we'll get an epic snowy ride!!

 

[Carl0880]

I hope they don't neuter the stage.
Basso will be the guy who makes the race tomorrow. Szmyd to make Agnel a real torture.
Evans will lose time (amount depending on where the attacks start), probably not huge.
Tommy V. loses yellow and drops out of top 5 probably.

This stage will determine where Tommy finishes. If they chop off any part of this stage, then that helps Tommy.

I think Alp D'Huez with it being a short stage he will be alright, not a several minuute loss. If he can somehow keep within striking distance, then I think he has a possibility of a podium or Top 5. I think winning is not possible, not with 1:20 gap. Now if he didn't lose the 27 seconds today, then I might have give him a 2-5 chance of winning, especially if they take out any part of tomorrow stage. Still an excellent Tour for him.

 

[LaFlorecita]

OK this is how I think/hope the GC top 6 will finish:
AC
AS +20"
SS +20"
FS +31"
CE +1'06"
TV +2'37"

Although I'd rather see Cadel and Samu finish higher than Andy, this would be better for my favorite.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Meteo

Stage 18 between Pinerolo and Galibier Serre-Chevalier. Sun and hot from the start in Pinerolo and the weather will the sun via the Col Agnel and Izoard. Next big lift from Briançon to the top of Galibier always in the sun. But we get to the Col du Galibier, where the clouds are just above the finish Winds : Departure to the "Sprint" no wind. Col Agnel: unfavorable northwest 30 km/h. Col d’Izoard: unfavorable northwest 30 km/h. Briançon to Lautaret: unfavorable 20 km/h. Col du Galibier: North 40 km/h.

Temperatures : Pinerolo: 25° Sprint Verzuolo: 28° Col Agnel: 5° (colder with the wind) Château-Ville-Vielle 20° Col d’Izoard: 10° Monetier-les-bains: 20° Col du Galibier: 6° (colder with the wind)

 

[ericthesportsman6]

OK this is how I think/hope the GC top 6 will finish:
AC
AS +20"
SS +20"
FS +31"
CE +1'06"
TV +2'37"

Although I'd rather see Cadel and Samu finish higher than Andy, this would be better for my favorite.

Basso? Tomorrow really suits his grinding style.

 

[jobiwan]

Tomorrow might be an all out alliance against Cadel Evans.

The early domestiques for Saxo, Leopard, Liqui, set a solid pace on the Agnel, early Izoard, then Fuglsang, Monfort, and CAS set a high tempo on the upper slopes of the Izoard.

Then come the bottom of the Galibier, Szmyd and Navarro go all out to whittle it down to just Evans, then Basso starts with his tempo.

With about 10 kms to go, Frank will attack.
Sanchador and Andy will follow.
Basso stops making tempo, and Evans kills himself to get back to the leaders.

Once Evans gets back, Andy will go, Sanchador follows.
Frank stays behind Evans, forcing him to relive Alpe d'Huez a day earlier than expected.

Andy and Sanchador decide to work together, and wait to settle the win on the Alpe.

Sanchez will have to let go with 2-3 kms left, but he'll be a very solid 3rd and in a position to podium.

Then either:

Contador will get restless near the end, and mock Andy's Plateau de Beille efforts, getting 2 seconds and the stage win. Andy complains about something, probably the snow on the edge of the roads.

OR

Andy and Contador ride up to the finish together, and Alberto thinks he has the win a la Mur de Bretagne, but Andy somehow hangs on. Andy goes crazy again, becomes a fist pumping fool, then Alberto will give him a gentle slap on the face to remind him of what he could have done.

Frank eventually drops Evans and rides to 4th.
Basso also grinds past Evans for 5th place.

AS/AC with 1-2 seconds between
Samu +20"
Frank +1'10"
Basso +1'25"
Evans +1'50"
Cunego, Tommy D, Uran +2'30"

Tommy V +3'30", but with a smile.

And in my calculations, that would put Frank in yellow by a smidge.

 

[Jux1893]

Contador for the win, Cadel for Yellow.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Basso? Tomorrow really suits his grinding style.

Mmm, I said Top 6 of GC

 

[il_pirata]

If things blow on the Izoard (which I feel they may due to Basso) then I think we could be left with Contador, Andy and Fraenk together like 09 and Colombiere/Romme. But with the finish uphill, those 3 split again.
Tbh, what the heck, I'd like Andy to win, and I'm completely biased, but I just want to see GC man vs man from 60km to go and have some good old fashioned racing!

 

[PedalCastro]

Does a break have any chance of staying away tomorrow or on Stage 19? I'm guessing not but if the GC men watch each other instead of riding hard..?

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Gesink wins the stage from a long breakaway. Mollema 2nd again and Ruijgh 3rd.

 

[il_pirata]

I'm guessing not but if the GC men watch each other instead of riding hard..?

No more hiding, no more watching, it has to explode tomorrow

 

[PedalCastro]

No more hiding, no more watching, it has to explode tomorrow

I'm sure the Schlecks would like to do a bit more watching before one of them launches an "attack" which gains them a couple of metres

 

[washoezephyr1]

Good post. The little climb in Galibier is the one they finished on in 2007, quite a narrow path? On the profile it looks like there is a ramp at the same point of Briancon so they should be doing it. Although 2007 they came off Galibier the way they go up this year.

I hope Contador has the legs, that way he can light Izoard up like he did the Giau (although to be fair, it was Rujano and Rodriguez who kicked that off?).

Just for clarification, in order to finish at 2,645 meters, is this trail from the google image, the finish? photo not loading, see google and a small trail to the west near the final switchback from the south).

 

[Dutchsmurf]

Voeckler in an interview after today's stage said he is expecting Contador to attack on the Agnel already. Not sure how serious that was, but if that really happens, we will get a great race to watch.

 

[sulgpallur]

Voeckler in an interview after today's stage said he is expecting Contador to attack on the Agnel already. Not sure how serious that was, but if that really happens, we will get a great race to watch.

i would say its to early to attack on first climb if he doesn't want to solo breakaway Second climb is more likely.

 

[Parrulo]

contador and samu should send 2 mans up the road each and attack on the second climb and try to leave evans behind while taking at least 1 schleck with them and if possible basso too. but having at least 1 schleck would be the most important part. if they can do that the logical pace setter behind would be bmc who has no proper mountain domestiques. that way they could gain some serious time

ofc its easier said then done

 

[Tank Engine]

i would say its to early to attack on first climb if he doesn't want to solo breakaway Second climb is more likely.

Agree. This is where the race starts. A break has no chance tomorrow. AC is going to win this race or almost collapse in trying to. I think he'll go when the Izoard gets steep, TV will be out of it before the top. I think Andy will keep close to AC, but there's no way that Bertie will gift him the stage win (not having won anything yet). Sanchez, Basso and Evans will be trying to limit their losses, with Frank attacking them when the Galibier gets steep (if he's not on a bad day). Hope Cadel's diesel engine is turbocharged and, the race comes down to the Alpe and the TT

 

[vcampbell]

i would say its to early to attack on first climb if he doesn't want to solo breakaway Second climb is more likely.

Actually attack with the team seems possible for me. Riding tempo first with the weaker ones (Nicki Sörensen, Vandborg, Porte), and from 10 km to the top of Angel goes Hernandez, Navarro and CAS. Those 3 survives Angel, and they go full gas on Izoard, Contador attacks here Samu, Andrew and Frank goes with him, they go a killer descent, working together for at least 10-15 km on Galibier, then the two spaniard attacks, and there they are

 

[dgodave]

If they have to climb INTO a significant wind, bunches of the favorites will finish together.
.

 

[vcampbell]

Agree. This is where the race starts. A break has no chance tomorrow. AC is going to win this race or almost collapse in trying to. I think he'll go when the Izoard gets steep, TV will be out of it before the top. I think Andy will keep close to AC, but there's no way that Bertie will gift him the stage win (not having won anything yet). Sanchez, Basso and Evans will be trying to limit their losses, with Frank attacking them when the Galibier gets steep (if he's not on a bad day). Hope Cadel's diesel engine is turbocharged and, the race comes down to the Alpe and the TT

If Andy and Alberto will be ahead (with a 1 or 2 minutes lead) then I don't think Frank will risk an attack, because it will be a possible way for Evans to limit his losses to go after/with him.

 

[jsem94]

If they have to climb INTO a significant wind, bunches of the favorites will finish together.
.

Well, we're gonna have an Etna situation again. But the question is, will Contador be able to go like that again - and who will be the Rujano to follow him.

 

[SirLes]

I don't like making predictions because it tends to jinx things. ( I come from a family that had not one but two Allegros AND a Betamax!)

Anyway the run from Briancon is very long, wide, open and could not be worse for an individual or small group IMO. Similarly the ascent from the Lautaret is open not very steep for the most part. I see things staying together until pretty near the top. None of the leaders will want to be isolated after the izoard so I see a big group sticking together over that and then driving hard up the valley to the Lautaret and even before. The last km from the summit it gets super steep and gaps will open up then but it will still be close between maybe four riders by the end.

The following day I don't see killer attacks on the galibier as the descent to alp d'huez is just too long. You will want to be part of a big group. When Pantani went the next climb was Les Duex alps which starts about half way from Lautaret to Bourg and shortly after the end of the steeper section.

Now I have said all this it's bound to turn out completely differently.

 

[kurtinsc]

From Evans perspective, how should he play this?

He has to ride defensively... but how?

If I were him, I'd just mark Andy and Alberto. I'd let Frank, Basso, Cunego and even Voeckler go if they attack.

He's not going to be able to chase every attack if he tries he's dead. But if he sticks with Andy and Alberto, they'll have to work to bring back those other riders as well.

Now I'm not saying Evans is capable of wheelsucking those two the whole way. But if he could, then would they force him to chase those others?

All of the other riders would present more of a problem for Andy and Alberto at a smaller gap then they would for Evans. Andy wouldn't chase Frank... but Contador would need to before Evans would. His leads on both along with his ITT advantage over Andy seem to not put the same pressure on him to chase attacks from everyone.

He could still fail obviously, but I'd think it would be more from lack of strength in general, not because he'd be required to chase everything down. Heck, he may JUST mark Contador (which would be a very wimpy way to ride in some ways), and force Contador to mark the attacks from both Schlecks or lose the tour. I don't think Contador would throw away his chance to win simply because Evans won't work to chase Andy down.