uphillstruggle said:
I just don't see Nibbles not taking 11 seconds out of Wiggins on the Angrilu. Nibali is pretty dam good on steep stuff - not exiting, but pretty effective. He was only behind Mosqeura on Bola del Mundo last year. Wiggins suffers when its steep.
When have we really seen Wiggins when it's steep? Taking only races after his 2009 Tour breakthrough showing (where the steepest climb was Ventoux, which is a totally different type of climb to what we're talking about next weekend), we have:
11th (in the group at 2'25") Giro 2010 stage 14 (Grappa)
104th (at 25'32") Giro 2010 stage 15 (Zoncolán)
67th (at 4'51") Giro 2010 stage 16 (Kronplatz)
131st (in the autobus at 35'17") Giro 2010 stage 19 (Mortirolo-Aprica)
14th (at 31") Tour 2010 stage 12 (Mende)
6th (at 54") Dauphiné 2011 stage 6 (Le Collet d'Allevard)
How many of those do you think he was on form for? We know he didn't approach the Giro 2010 in form. Le Collet d'Allevard is quite steep (ave. 8,4%) but it's not crazy hard like Anglirú. Mende is the right kind of steepness, but is far shorter. And in reality, he acquitted himself fairly well on those latter two, but unlike the Giro climbs they aren't really representative of the length and extreme difficulty of the Asturian behemoth.
So while I feel that he will struggle, it's not really a certainty because we've never really seen him performing at peak form on climbs like this, and remember that last time out Levi Leipheimer was 4th on Angliru, only a minute down, while back in 2000 Jan Hruska somehow managed to come 2nd.