2011 Vuelta a Espana Stage 11: Verín - Estación de Montaña Manzaneda 167,0 km (31/8)

[Moncoutie]

Obviously want Moncoutie to win this, but as others have said he hates that kind of weather.

Can't see Anton winning this. Aside from his poor form I still don't think they'd let him get in the days break, even 8 mins down.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The long term forecast is not good for Moncoutié. Looks like the weather in Asturias, Cantabria and especially the Basque country is going to be pretty typical for the region - rain, and lots of it.

 

[cycladianpirate]

In an odd way, I think that Purito's deficit could work for him on stages such as this. Neither Nibs nor Wiggins will fancy going into the red here and will be content to concede some time. If he's up for it - an early attack could pay dividends.

Then rinse and repeat until he's back in contention.

Of course, this assumes that 9 was purely a blip.

 

[Moncoutie]

The long term forecast is not good for Moncoutié. Looks like the weather in Asturias, Cantabria and especially the Basque country is going to be pretty typical for the region - rain, and lots of it.

Thanks, that's brightened my day!

 

[canyonball]

The long term forecast is not good for Moncoutié. Looks like the weather in Asturias, Cantabria and especially the Basque country is going to be pretty typical for the region - rain, and lots of it.

That reminds me of Vuelta a Asturias. Terrible weather on the stage into Santuario del Acebo.

After La covatilla, I don't really know what to say. Only thing I believe is Rodriguez will perform much better. He has already two strikes (covatilla and ITT) so I don't rate him much for the top spot. But I still want him to deliver and animate the race. Scarponi too. He said before the Vuelta his goal was to focus on stage wins and take it day by day . Probably he didn't mean it at the time, but I guess now he most certainly does.I can see him trying something special on the following days.

Going into the second part of the race there's so many questions. I think D_T summed them up pretty well. I am specially waiting to see how sky will play their cards and how Mollema will go from now on.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That reminds me of Vuelta a Asturias. Terrible weather on the stage into Santuario del Acebo.

After La covatilla, I don't really know what to say. Only thing I believe is Rodriguez will perform much better. He has already two strikes (covatilla and ITT) so I don't rate him much for the top spot. But I still want him to deliver and animate the race. Scarponi too. He said before the Vuelta his goal was to focus on stage wins and take it day by day . Probably he didn't mean it at the time, but I guess now he most certainly does.I can see him trying something special on the following days.

Going into the second part of the race there's so many questions. I think D_T summed them up pretty well. I am specially waiting to see how sky will play their cards and how Mollema will go from now on.

In terms of racing, that day to Acebo is the 2nd best cycling stage of the year after the Giro stage to Rifugio Gardeccia.

Stages 4 & 20 will always be top though.

 

[Swede1]

Prediction:
Wiggins to stay with front group of GC riders and lose in the sprint.
JRod to do better than before but still lose a couple of seconds at the end.
Nibali to not attack into a headwind, and instead wait until the very end and attack.
Menchov to come in just behind the Wiggins group.
Mollema, Kessiakoff, Cobo, and Martin to come in together with Wiggins.
Nibbles to get the win by attacking at about the 1 k to go mark.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I think Froome cracks today.

Hoping for a good day racing.

 

[Sasquatch]

Even if it is cold Moncoutie's form is much better than the Tour de France so he should be fine.

He's 10 minutes down now so he will look for a break tonight.

 

[Swede1]

I think Froome cracks today.

Hoping for a good day racing.

I think he will lose some time also, but not a massive amount. Maybe close to a minute.

 

[stetre76]

i see all diesels including wiggo, nibs, froome, braj... to come under pressure from the little climbers like purito who lost loads of time in yesterday's itt.

my hunch is that one or two diesels will be broken tomorrow beyond a repair.

i doubt it will be nibs...possibly braj as he was visibly tiring in the conclusive part of the itt (btwn km 30 and 47).

btw, and so was wiggo who slowed down considerably in the last 17 km - guys like nimbs, menchov, kessiakoff, sanchez (and even monfort) beat him.

poor pacing by wiggo ? may be. but he also may be tiring...we'll see.

the problem the last riders in the TT had was that the wind turned and they had pretty strong head wind on the way back (from the 2nd intermediate to the finish line)- Martin and the others still had no wind or even tail wind on that section

of course, it might also be that Wiggins is starting to get tired, but it might also just have been the wind...

 

[Tank Engine]

the problem the last riders in the TT had was that the wind turned and they had pretty strong head wind on the way back (from the 2nd intermediate to the finish line)- Martin and the others still had no wind or even tail wind on that section

of course, it might also be that Wiggins is starting to get tired, but it might also just have been the wind...

The comparison with Martin might be due to the wind as he started way earlier, but Wiggins was slower in the final section than many riders who started at similar times (Froome, Monfort etc.) thus it looks like his pacing was wrong. If that means anything, we'll find out in the next few days which are crucial and are going to be tough for Wiggo.

 

[Tuarts]

Just some info for people but I've gone over the times for the top riders on the 4 main climbing stages so far and added their times up to see who's done the "best". Its only one statistic so you can't read too much into but I think it shows at least who's been consistent:

Time from Winner / Name / Current place on GC

26 Mollema (RAB) - 7th
45 Kessiakoff (AST) - 5th
46 Van den Broeck (OLO) - 12th
49 Menchov (GEO) - 13th
50 Zubeldia (RSH) - 10th
54 J.J. Cobo (GEO) - 8th
55 Martin (GRM) -24th
55 Wiggins (SKY) - 3rd
58 Froome (SKY) - 1st
60 W. Poels (VCD) - 23rd
61 Joa. Rodríguez (KAT) - 14th
65 Nibali (LIQ) - 4th
70 Seeldraeyers (QST) 21st
75 D. Moreno (KAT) - 19th
80 Fuglsang (LEO) - 2nd
83 Nieve (EUS) - 25th
92 C. Sørensen (SBS) - 20th
92 Monfort (LEO) - 6th
101 Kruijswijk (RAB) - 18th
101 Pardilla (MOV) - 15th
101 Bruseghin (MOV) - 11th
120 Roche (ALM) - 17th
130 Duarte (GEO) - 29th
135 S. Lagutin (VCD) - 27th
137 Scarponi (LAM) - 22nd
138 Brajkovic (RSH) - 9th
156 Zaugg (LEO) - 41st
211 Moncoutié (COF) - 34th
280 I. Antón (EUS) - 32nd

***

Anton is just there for reference

 

[LukeSchmid]

hmmmmmmmm..... it looks like TGBM is going to win.

 

[Sasquatch]

Mollema
Fuglsang
Monfort
Roche

etc should all drop like flies towards the end of the week. I suppose it's still possible they could be in fine condition if they all peaked for the Tour. See Kruijswijk in Switzerland after the Giro. Surely those 4 are near the end and can't keep riding with the best?

 

[Tuarts]

Except Fuglsang. He had NO form at the Tour, he was downright **** for a good portion of it. Maybe he's built it up compared to the others so he should be able to maintain whatever he's got.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Mollema
Fuglsang
Monfort
Roche

etc should all drop like flies towards the end of the week. I suppose it's still possible they could be in fine condition if they all peaked for the Tour. See Kruijswijk in Switzerland after the Giro. Surely those 4 are near the end and can't keep riding with the best?

I think Kruiswijk may start getting better though He's lost a fair bit of time already.Fuglsang will continue to go well imo. Monfort may drop off a bit. Mollema may crack big time or he may continue climbing very strongy.

 

[jens_attacks]

scarponi and the euskaltel guys will attack early on the climb,i don't think froome or wiggins will crack not even close.only purito can drop them but he doesn't seem in his best shape.

 

[jonjungel]

Except Fuglsang. He had NO form at the Tour, he was downright **** for a good portion of it. Maybe he's built it up compared to the others so he should be able to maintain whatever he's got.

During the TdF, commentators on Norwegian TV said he had some problems with his hip, which made it impossible for him to get all his power to the pedals. This also gave him some back problems.

My guess is that both Fuglsang and Montfort intended to peak for the tour, and see how far they could go in the vuelta. It didn't quite go as planned in the tour.

 

[Sasquatch]

I think Kruiswijk may start getting better though He's lost a fair bit of time already.Fuglsang will continue to go well imo. Monfort may drop off a bit. Mollema may crack big time or he may continue climbing very strongy.

I didn't word that right. I was making an example of Kruijswijk's performance how he was still fine after the Giro.

I expect Kruijswijk will ride himself into the top 10. He'll get better as the tour goes on. Mollema should crack but with what is happening thus far in the Vuelta, he probably won't.

 

[manafana]

A few names i think can go well and may spread my bets around:

Cobo 28.0
Brajkovic 160
kessiakoff 130
Van Den Broeck 30

 

[Mellow Velo]

Nobody think Dan Martin can't hang in there and out sprint them ftw, again?

 

[stetre76]

probably not today - Dan Martin emptied himself at the TT, so I think today's stage might be a bit too early!

also, i think that the even steeper climbs suit him better.

 

[Lexman]

Sky could even let a break win this, will eliminate bonus seconds for mountain sprinters and the team can conserve energy for when really needed.

That's indeed what they're supposed to do, at least in theory... and set up a good pace on the climb to prevent a discountious rhythm by attacks from Rodriguez, Nibali...

If it's bad weather that will influence the race as well and this after a resting day...

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Nobody think Dan Martin can't hang in there and out sprint them ftw, again?

I tend to think that someone completely unthreatening will get away on the climb, or the break of the day may be let hang on. If a small group of big names are contesting the win at the end, Martin would be a very likely winner.