2011 Vuelta a Espana Stage 11: Verín - Estación de Montaña Manzaneda 167,0 km (31/8)

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hoolaparara

Mar 15, 2009
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I think anybody 2 minute down is already out of it.. For reasons not discussable here it just seems impossible to take much time on climbs anymore.. I mean look at rodriguez, how bad he looked from early in stage 9 and yet he only lost 50 seconds.

Post-restday here I think menchov will drop another minute here and nibbles and wigans will probably ride together. For the rest of the race I think one of nibbles or wigans will gradually eat time out of the other on the climbs, with other guys trying to do something but failing and froome just dropping a little time every stage. This stage looks another long slog favouring the two tt guys so it will not have much effect.


The only chance for anybody to make serious time would be a most unlikely event of rodriguez realising he is done and he and anton going stage hunting ending up together not dropping the guy in with a chance and then being willing to carry him up the hill. Trouble is with so many guys so close.. there will be no lack of people willing to close any gaps that people try to make.
 
Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

Jun 7, 2011
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hoolaparara said:
I think anybody 2 minute down is already out of it.. For reasons not discussable here it just seems impossible to take much time on climbs anymore.. I mean look at rodriguez, how bad he looked from early in stage 9 and yet he only lost 50 seconds.

Post-restday here I think menchov will drop another minute here and nibbles and wigans will probably ride together. For the rest of the race I think one of nibbles or wigans will gradually eat time out of the other on the climbs, with other guys trying to do something but failing and froome just dropping a little time every stage. This stage looks another long slog favouring the two tt guys so it will not have much effect.


The only chance for anybody to make serious time would be a most unlikely event of rodriguez realising he is done and he and anton going stage hunting ending up together not dropping the guy in with a chance and then being willing to carry him up the hill. Trouble is with so many guys so close.. there will be no lack of people willing to close any gaps that people try to make.
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There is certainly some truth to that. Yet some GC guys still seem to think they live in the 70's where time lost in a TT could be made up in half a climb. Those days are over, but not everybody seems to realise it. Mind you, it is possible to make huge timegaps, but usually it's not time gained by the attacker, but time lost by those going out the back door.

Although, 2 minutes down isn't game over, if you can only take 25 seconds on your opponents every mountain stage and win one of those stages as well (time bonus). It's not beyond the realm of possibility, but it would need a consistent rider. Just winning the group sprint could earn you close to 30 seconds total compared to those not sprinting in the final 200 meters.
 
Tuarts

Tuarts

May 25, 2010
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Zinoviev Letter said:
I tend to think that someone completely unthreatening will get away on the climb, or the break of the day may be let hang on. If a small group of big names are contesting the win at the end, Martin would be a very likely winner.
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I agree, either someone from 30th-40th on GC will get away on the climb or they'll let the break stay away.
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

Mar 13, 2009
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Sasquatch said:
Mollema
Fuglsang
Monfort
Roche

etc should all drop like flies towards the end of the week. I suppose it's still possible they could be in fine condition if they all peaked for the Tour. See Kruijswijk in Switzerland after the Giro. Surely those 4 are near the end and can't keep riding with the best?
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Mollema actually needs a lot of races to get into form, always been that way. And a large part of the Tour he took it easy because he didn't have to ride for his own GC, and Gesinks GC was over pretty soon.
In that aspect, the Tour was just a nice 3-week preparation race.

Menchov rode the Tour-Vuelta double a couple of times and won the Vuelta one of those times. Others like Sastre and Evans rode top 5...
 
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theyoungest

Jan 11, 2010
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Mollema actually needs a lot of races to get into form, always been that way. And a large part of the Tour he took it easy because he didn't have to ride for his own GC, and Gesinks GC was over pretty soon.
In that aspect, the Tour was just a nice 3-week preparation race.

Menchov rode the Tour-Vuelta double a couple of times and won the Vuelta one of those times. Others like Sastre and Evans rode top 5...
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Not really, he just got sick (as usual). It's actually pretty impressive how he went from being the worst rider in the race (his own words) to getting second on that stage behind EBH.
 
Dekker_Tifosi

Dekker_Tifosi

Mar 13, 2009
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theyoungest said:
Not really, he just got sick (as usual). It's actually pretty impressive how he went from being the worst rider in the race (his own words) to getting second on that stage behind EBH.
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These are his own words also.. he took it easy in the early stages (when he lost time) because he didn't have to ride for the gc. He did get sick but after that even there he took it easy in the stages where he didn't have a chance anyway
 
Climbing

Climbing

Jun 8, 2010
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Getting back into the stage... maybe a break could stay away, considering I don't know which team whould chase.
Probably Sky and Liquigas are not interested in bonuses, not sure about that.
The last climb is long with changing gradients, not a clear powerclimb like someone said... it's not clear it would favour the diesels.

I'll try a prediction and say (if the break doesn't stay away) Nibali is gonna win and almost close the matters, and some guys are gonna lose ground.
 
manafana

manafana

May 15, 2011
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zubeldia's been climbing well think 180 for stage win is worth small wager should be 50-60 in my view
 
DJ Sprtsch

DJ Sprtsch

May 14, 2009
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Barredo, Aaen Jorgensen and Frank try to jump straight away.
edit / seems like they didnt get away after all.
 
Z

Zinoviev Letter

Aug 18, 2010
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auscyclefan94 said:
BMC are too stupid to work out that if they don't go in breaks they won't win.:rolleyes:
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They seem to be trying to get into the break today, but you are right that their strategy so far seems... odd. Have they actually explained what their goals are, because I can't really tell what they've been hoping to achieve from their performance. On the face of it, looking at their squad they should be riding like a French team at the TDF, getting into the break at every opportunity.
 
Woody22

Woody22

May 23, 2010
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Was wondering if Frank was going to try something. He impressed me somewhat in the Tour de Suisse and thought he may try and target a top 20 in GC here.
Have found him (and the whole BMC team) pretty average so far.
 
auscyclefan94

auscyclefan94

Jun 16, 2009
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theyoungest said:
On the attack as we speak: Mathias Frank.
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Good. Has been dissapointing so far especially after his performances in Suisse. Same with santambrogio after his performance in Austria and Van Avermaet's performances over the past month.

Zinoviev Letter said:
They seem to be trying to get into the break today, but you are right that their strategy so far seems... odd. Have they actually explained what their goals are, because I can't really tell what they've been hoping to achieve from their performance. On the face of it, looking at their squad they should be riding like a French team at the TDF, getting into the break at every opportunity.
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Their goals were to win stages though for Greg to win the points jersey and get some stage wins. Guys like Santaromita, Tschopp and Frank were suppose to attack in the mountain stages and for a good gc ride and the others probably to go in the break and/or help guys like Greg in stages.

Wasn't so sure on Frank doing a good gc. He rode his first GT this year which was the Giro and then rode Tour de Suisse and then to Vuelta. A heavy load if you ask me.
 
jens_attacks

jens_attacks

Sep 8, 2009
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does anybody really think that wiggins will be dropped in the mountains?and i mean really...
wiggins is not joking when he's talking about his form,he never did.
“When I push 450 watts like I did on Sunday in such a difficult climb, who in the world can do more? Only Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck but they aren’t here"

When I took the lead of the front group three kilometres away from the top, I rode fast despite the headwind. I’m pretty good at guessing when my adversaries aren’t well. For three kilometres, I’ve ridden like Miguel Indurain! I had never done that before.

i just don't see who will drop wiggins.just an insanely good purito on angliru and that's it.
 
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