2011 Vuelta a Espana Stage 5: Sierra Nevada - Valdepenas de Jaen, 186km (24/8)

[Libertine Seguros]

Haven't noticed that JRo has the Rojas disease. As well as Burgos, there was the Dauphine. I think he'll take this one, but Danny Boy will do well on this finish.

He LOVES coming 2nd in the Ardennes recently though.

Amstel Gold 2011
Flèche Wallonne 2011
Flèche Wallonne 2010
Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2009...

 

[Swede1]

Scarponi has been doing well on these steep hills like in Tirreno. I think he will go top 3 on the stage. Rodriguez and Martin on paper should also be good on this finish. Nibali will also be right up there.

If Wiggins and Brajkovic are within 10 seconds of Nibali and Jrod, I think they will be real threats for the Vuelta overall.

 

[Tank Engine]

Wonder who Rodriguez will come second to on this?

OK, JRo has come second to Phil and in Phil country pretty often. But as Hrotha says, taken overall, he wins some, loses some, like most of the top riders, while Phil (and Cav) is a sort of anti-Zabel (very rarely comes second).

 

[Euskaltel!]

Since Antón is clearly off colour, at least for the first part of this Vuelta, I'll go for Nieve instead. Although I guess he's waiting for Angliru anyway...

 

[the asian]

Purito surely must win this! Danny boy for 2nd. Pity Anton is not in form.

 

[Mellow Velo]

I'm surprised no one has yet mentioned Greg van Avermaet as a possible protagonist.
Having been touted for 2 stage wins on profiles that weren't quite his gig, I'd say today was more up his street.
I think perhaps one or two riders who took their foot off the gas yesterday, might hang around today.

Of course, if Purito has the condition, he will be hard to beat.

 

[Ferminal]

Greg will get dropped on Alto de Valdepenas

 

[dlwssonic]

does GVA have a slight chance at all today of doing anything, looks a bit steep to me.

 

[LandEscape]

does GVA have a slight chance at all today of doing anything, looks a bit steep to me.

Maybe with a long range attack...
A possible scenario is this: catching a break in this kind of stages is very hard for any team, so if the bunch gets at the foot of the penultimate hill ( valdepenas) with a little gap to the escapers, and there aren't teams capable to set the tempo, guys like Poels may try to anticipate and attack early.

 

[LaFleur]

Today the neutralized part is a 24km descent! How sick is that!

 

[theyoungest]

Kruijswijk says it's hard to gauge the form of the other riders, but he mentions one guy who is going particularly well, in his opinion: Bradley Wiggins.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Today the neutralized part is a 24km descent! How sick is that!

Seems to me to be a pretty pointless case of doing something just because they can not because it is a good idea.

 

[LukeSchmid]

Kriuswijk to win this one, although they might not catch the break, so he might just win the climb amoungst the favourites group.

 

[Mellow Velo]

does GVA have a slight chance at all today of doing anything, looks a bit steep to me.

I was thinking about Fleche Wallone. Huy is just as hard. He's riding better now, than in April.
Taking out those not at the Vuelta:

2. Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:03
5. Igor Anton Hernandez (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, at 0:06
8. Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:09
9. Christophe Le Mevel (F), Garmin-Cervélo, at 0:12
10. Paul Martens (G), Rabobank Cycling Team, at 0:12
12. Michael Albasini (Swi), HTC-Highroad, at 0:17
16. Greg Van Avermaet (B), BMC Racing Team, at 0:20
17. Jurgen Van Den Broeck (B), Omega Pharma-Lotto, at 0:23
20. Benat Intxausti Elorriaga (Sp), Movistar, at 0:28

Anton hasn't got the legs, so..........I guess Martens and Albasini come into the frame, too.

 

[DamonAlbarn]

From the Saxo's page

CAS had no problems with Moreno's defensive riding:

http://www.saxobanksungard.com/ny_news.asp?n_id=3362

Good lad, never whining.

 

[dlwssonic]

I was thinking about Fleche Wallone. Huy is just as hard. He's riding better now, than in April.
Taking out those not at the Vuelta:

2. Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:03
5. Igor Anton Hernandez (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, at 0:06
8. Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:09
9. Christophe Le Mevel (F), Garmin-Cervélo, at 0:12
10. Paul Martens (G), Rabobank Cycling Team, at 0:12
12. Michael Albasini (Swi), HTC-Highroad, at 0:17
16. Greg Van Avermaet (B), BMC Racing Team, at 0:20
17. Jurgen Van Den Broeck (B), Omega Pharma-Lotto, at 0:23
20. Benat Intxausti Elorriaga (Sp), Movistar, at 0:28

Anton hasn't got the legs, so..........I guess Martens and Albasini come into the frame, too.

Yea remembered that too and he was positioned badly before the mur, so IF he has good position on the foot of todays hill he might have somewhat a chance.

 

[just some guy]

Yea remembered that too and he was positioned badly before the mur, so IF he has good position on the foot of todays hill he might have somewhat a chance.

Have you seen GVA looks like the heat is killing him.

 

[Kwibus]

They didnt go cause of it 'wasnt steep enough'. It was just a 5% climb with the steeper parts at the bottom of the climb.

Not steep enough and a strong headwind. Plenty of reason not to attack if you want a good GC.
Kruiswijk attacked btw, but when he went the cameras decided to show something else. Once they turned back to Kruijswijk he was with Nibali who apparently closed the gap to him.

 

[theyoungest]

I was thinking about Fleche Wallone. Huy is just as hard. He's riding better now, than in April.
Taking out those not at the Vuelta:

2. Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:03
5. Igor Anton Hernandez (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, at 0:06
8. Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:09
9. Christophe Le Mevel (F), Garmin-Cervélo, at 0:12
10. Paul Martens (G), Rabobank Cycling Team, at 0:12
12. Michael Albasini (Swi), HTC-Highroad, at 0:17
16. Greg Van Avermaet (B), BMC Racing Team, at 0:20
17. Jurgen Van Den Broeck (B), Omega Pharma-Lotto, at 0:23
20. Benat Intxausti Elorriaga (Sp), Movistar, at 0:28

Anton hasn't got the legs, so..........I guess Martens and Albasini come into the frame, too.

Is GVA riding better now than in April? A 7th place in LBL suggests that he was going pretty well.

Martens and maybe Albasini could be up there, but against Rodriguez or Martin they don't stand a chance.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

CAS had no problems with Moreno's defensive riding:

http://www.saxobanksungard.com/ny_news.asp?n_id=3362

Good lad, never whining.

Yeah he's always in a good mood, making jokes etc. Funny guy actually.

As for the stage, I mentioned Madrazo earlier and I actually think he can do well here. Remember his attack in Tirreno-Adriatico?

I think Martin or Rodriguez will win though.

 

[just some guy]

I have a feeling the break will go all the way again.

 

[Kwibus]

Scarponi has been doing well on these steep hills like in Tirreno. I think he will go top 3 on the stage. Rodriguez and Martin on paper should also be good on this finish. Nibali will also be right up there.

If Wiggins and Brajkovic are within 10 seconds of Nibali and Jrod, I think they will be real threats for the Vuelta overall.

I don't think it will mean anything if they are within 10 seconds. With the more harder climbs still to come there is still a lot possible. I can see both losing massive time on the Angliru for example.
I won't mind it if they surprised me though.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Have you seen GVA looks like the heat is killing him.

Is GVA riding better now than in April? A 7th place in LBL suggests that he was going pretty well.

Martens and maybe Albasini could be up there, but against Rodriguez or Martin they don't stand a chance.

Well, he was, up to 3 weeks ago, I would say.
However, the heat factor changes everything. I still haven't a clue as to who is suffering and who isn't.
Clearly, there has been a mood swing away from Peter Sagan, given he appears to not like it hot and where he has been finishing.
Martin, on the other hand, appears to like the Irish weather they have in Spain, at this time of the year.

Perhaps Nibali can lumber into the frame, like last year?

 

[Michielveedeebee]

I'm surprised no one has yet mentioned Greg van Avermaet as a possible protagonist.
Having been touted for 2 stage wins on profiles that weren't quite his gig, I'd say today was more up his street.
I think perhaps one or two riders who took their foot off the gas yesterday, might hang around today.

Of course, if Purito has the condition, he will be hard to beat.

Slightly too hard for Greg imo

 

[Captain_Cavman]

I was thinking about Fleche Wallone. Huy is just as hard. He's riding better now, than in April.
Taking out those not at the Vuelta:

2. Joaquin Rodriguez Oliver (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:03
5. Igor Anton Hernandez (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, at 0:06
8. Daniel Moreno Fernandez (Sp), Team Katusha, at 0:09
9. Christophe Le Mevel (F), Garmin-Cervélo, at 0:12
10. Paul Martens (G), Rabobank Cycling Team, at 0:12
12. Michael Albasini (Swi), HTC-Highroad, at 0:17
16. Greg Van Avermaet (B), BMC Racing Team, at 0:20
17. Jurgen Van Den Broeck (B), Omega Pharma-Lotto, at 0:23
20. Benat Intxausti Elorriaga (Sp), Movistar, at 0:28

Anton hasn't got the legs, so..........I guess Martens and Albasini come into the frame, too.

Van Den Broeck was working for Gilbert of course. He's one of those who will look at the TdF podium and think that but for the grace of God...

On the other hand I can't believe he can compete given the extent of his injuries.


The other one to consider is Nibali who I'd liken to Evans in terms of strengths. And we all know who pipped J Rodriguez Oliver in the 2010 FW.