2012 Speculation (and confirmation) thread - rider schedules and parcours

[The Hitch]

That and being, by some distance, the fastest human ever.

Pff. When Maurice Greene. was the fastest human ever no one cared. Same with Tim Montgomery. Same with Asafa Powell who was also by some margin the fastest man ever. If Tyson Gay posted that time there wouldn't be as much fanfare.

No one knows who Pudzianowski is - the strongest man ever, and strength has always been more important for humans than speed
Dont noone dare suggest that Savickas is stronger

Agreed. But Thomas would get a bigger pay check for winning an Olympic gold than he would for winning P-R or RVV next year. We love the Olympics and gold medal winners are pretty much overnight millionaires.

Well you get 30 000 for winning the gold, and 1 or 2 of them like Ennis and Hoy get a sponsorship deal or 2, but for the rest, I dont see where the other 970 000 is going to come from.

 

[The Hitch]

That was a hyperbole Hitch Just saying not a lot of non-Anglophone teams would be happy with it.

You can get an accident everywhere. He can get one in June and then people
will say how stupid it was to only focus on one thing next season.

Well the classics are more dangerous. Way more dangerous.

Its about weighing up your options. If you had to get across a crocodile infested river, would you choose the newly constructed bridge 200m away, or would you jump in and take your chances with the crocs

 

[El Pistolero]

Well the classics are more dangerous. Way more dangerous.

Its about weighing up your options. If you had to get across a crocodile infested river, would you choose the newly constructed bridge 200m away, or would you jump in and take your chances with the crocs

But aren't you more cautiousness in dangerous parts of a race than in safe parts? Where did all the crashes happen in the Giro or Tour? In safe parts of a race you focus a lot less and crashes happen more frequently when you least expect it IMO.

 

[The Hitch]

But aren't you more cautiousness in dangerous parts of a race than in safe parts? Where did all the crashes happen in the Giro or Tour? In safe parts of a race you focus a lot less and crashes happen more frequently when you least expect it IMO.

Track also has hidden dangers like big splinters that can go through your leg. But generally if you fall on the track, it aint going to **** you up like if you fall on the cobbles.

 

[El Pistolero]

Track also has hidden dangers like big splinters that can go through your leg. But generally if you fall on the track, it aint going to **** you up like if you fall on the cobbles.

I actually meant on training rides and stuff. I'm no expert in track cycling, but these guys don't train on the Veledrome all day, right?

 

[Matthijs]

The difference being that speedskating has been massively popular in Holland for years now. It's not a sport that we jumped on to get some medals.

For years? Painters ages ago show us masses on the ice! It's our traditional winter sport and even way in the low part of the country (yes, everything is low but some parts are even lower) for transport in winter times.

Risks are everywhere, GT is just a *****. He is right doing the Olympics, but no classics because of the risks??? armstrong and the schlecks all over again.

I don't think you can just say he have 10 times to compete. He probably is 2 years injured, 3 years not in his best form at that time, 1 year which is decided from a 70k out break, 2 years which are decided on a bunch sprint. Unless he bacomes a Cancellara, he probably gets in 7 years with great form 1 or 2 times maybe a real shot. And besides, Cancellara is a great cyclist, but still has won it only ones!

 

[theyoungest]

For years? Painters ages ago show us masses on the ice! It's our traditional winter sport and even way in the low part of the country (yes, everything is low but some parts are even lower) for transport in winter times.

Yes, skating has been done for ages, but actual speedskating wasn't really our strength until the times of Ard and Keessie.

 

[Tank Engine]

For years? Painters ages ago show us masses on the ice! It's our traditional winter sport and even way in the low part of the country (yes, everything is low but some parts are even lower) for transport in winter times.

Risks are everywhere, GT is just a *****. He is right doing the Olympics, but no classics because of the risks??? armstrong and the schlecks all over again.

I don't think you can just say he have 10 times to compete. He probably is 2 years injured, 3 years not in his best form at that time, 1 year which is decided from a 70k out break, 2 years which are decided on a bunch sprint. Unless he bacomes a Cancellara, he probably gets in 7 years with great form 1 or 2 times maybe a real shot. And besides, Cancellara is a great cyclist, but still has won it only ones!

I agree with the argument, but not the sentiment: a) GT's programme hasn't been decided yet and b) the reasoning behind such a (as yet unmade) decision is unclear. So let's just see.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Yes, but when (once again) even Armstrong is allowed to ride Suisse as Tour prep, Bruyneel probably isn't too steadfast in this belief. And Schleck's form curve seems to work quite differently from Armstrong's and Contador's, so the comparison is useless anyway.

Disagree about Bruyneel not being too steadfast in his belief. After 2001 when Armstrong tried it for the first time, Bruyneel only raced it once with his #1 GC guy (in his mind, anyway) and that was most likely because Armstrong was horribly off form, because of crashes and whatnot. Very unusual.

Not too sure about Andy Schleck's form curve being much different than Armstrong's. More that he lacks the balls to really suffer in training like other GC favorites, despite his talent. If Schleck has his usual build up towards the TDF, then yes, Switzerland would be the preferred prep race, but Bruyneel wasn't happy with Schleck's program and is going to make adjustments.

 

[El Pistolero]

For years? Painters ages ago show us masses on the ice! It's our traditional winter sport and even way in the low part of the country (yes, everything is low but some parts are even lower) for transport in winter times.

Risks are everywhere, GT is just a *****. He is right doing the Olympics, but no classics because of the risks??? armstrong and the schlecks all over again.

I don't think you can just say he have 10 times to compete. He probably is 2 years injured, 3 years not in his best form at that time, 1 year which is decided from a 70k out break, 2 years which are decided on a bunch sprint. Unless he bacomes a Cancellara, he probably gets in 7 years with great form 1 or 2 times maybe a real shot. And besides, Cancellara is a great cyclist, but still has won it only ones!

Actually, the Republic used to hate ice. They relied on the many rivers and water lines as their main defense line against the French and the Spanish. In cold winters everyone had to help smash the ice and keep the water running. If their water lines were frozen Spanish or French soldiers could have easily lied siege to some important cities.

As far as transportation goes, the main transportation for persons used to be a channel system which linked all the important cities to each other. Best not frozen either as it relied on horses for movement.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

That was a hyperbole Hitch Just saying not a lot of non-Anglophone teams would be happy with it.

You can get an accident everywhere. He can get one in June and then people will say how stupid it was to only focus on one thing next season. What I do notice is that people like Cancellara, Hushovd, Gilbert, Valverde, etc hardly ever crash. All of them classics specialists. It's mostly sprinters and GT Contenders that seem to crash during a season.

That's probably because in the Classics there's less bunch riding, especially in the cobbled ones where natural selection has taken place often 100km out and you're left with a group that can mostly self-police because there is enough room for them. Sprinters crash a lot because they don't have that luxury - rarely if ever as even if you have a nice, wide straight run-in you have the fight for the right wheels and everybody playing chicken with each other in the lead-out, and GC contenders because you often have very nervous pélotons in high-profile races, and also because there's always a couple of GC contenders who are there because they can climb and do pretty much nothing else - Pozzovivo, Antón, Mosquera and the like. They can often be a hazard in the péloton as they have poor bike handling skills, but unlike somebody like, say, David Moncoutié, who is also nervous in the péloton, these guys can't just sit at the back like he does, they need to be in the thick of it to protect their aims.

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Track also has hidden dangers like big splinters that can go through your leg. But generally if you fall on the track, it aint going to **** you up like if you fall on the cobbles.

Meh falling on cobbles is pretty okay, it hurts less than asphalt imo dunno about the track though..

 

[theyoungest]

Actually, the Republic used to hate ice. They relied on the many rivers and water lines as their main defense line against the French and the Spanish. In cold winters everyone had to help smash the ice and keep the water running. If their water lines were frozen Spanish or French soldiers could have easily lied siege to some important cities.

As far as transportation goes, the main transportation for persons used to be a channel system which linked all the important cities to each other. Best not frozen either as it relied on horses for movement.

Great. Now you get a Mickey Mouse sticker.

(no, honestly, it's good to see an ambitious student )

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Agreed. But Thomas would get a bigger pay check for winning an Olympic gold than he would for winning P-R or RVV next year. We love the Olympics and gold medal winners are pretty much overnight millionaires.

Calm down, there are an awful lot of British cycling gold medalists, and they don't all drive Bentley's.

If GT won the Ronde or Roubaix, and wasn't locked in to a contract, he could easily sign something worth 4 or 5 million over 3 or 4 years on the back of it - much much better remuneration than most 2 week wonder Olmpians.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

Great. Now you get a Mickey Mouse sticker.

(no, honestly, it's good to see an ambitious student )

Don't mock, if El P didn't have copying and pasting from Wikipedia, or utterly irrelevant digressions, he'd be forced to just accept he's wrong most of the time.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I don't think you can just say he have 10 times to compete. He probably is 2 years injured, 3 years not in his best form at that time, 1 year which is decided from a 70k out break, 2 years which are decided on a bunch sprint. Unless he bacomes a Cancellara, he probably gets in 7 years with great form 1 or 2 times maybe a real shot. And besides, Cancellara is a great cyclist, but still has won it only ones!

I don't agree. P-R probably more then most classics really favours the strong.
This year was a rarity, of course it can happen.
Bunch sprint in PR. just no.
and then 2 years injured/3 years out of form is baseless speculation.
Boonen, canc etc generally very good at getting form at the right time, with the wright program G shouldnt have problems either. Of course I garee there will be a couple seasons where the classic season will go wrong, as they do. But not to the extent you suggest.

Winning Roubaix and the Ronde 5 times each would make you more popular around the world than one Olympic gold medal at track cycling. You'd get bigger pay check as well.

So please don't tell me it would be better for him. It's probably just a hyperbole, at least I hope so.

the olympic gold is only bigger temporarily. I mean it will be good for his popularity yes, but to be fair you'd expect GB to win more golds this olympics, so chances are he went be the hero some are suggesting, just one of many.

But still I agree, how often do you get a chance to win a gold on home soil. This is not like ANdy, whom does this year in, year out.

An Olympic medal ranks higher than anything else in any sport except soccer. We cycling fans might rank the Tour higher, but in the eye of the general public a (second) golden medal outranks it by far. Anything outside the Tour isn't even worth noticing when it comes to cycling. Not doing the classics to focus on the Olympics is the only right choice. Besides, he will have more than enough years to focus on the classics after this year.

no way is a track gold comparable to a yellow jersey.

There was no celebration parade at fed sqaure in melbourne australia when Ryan Bayley won 2 gold medals at athens.

Meh falling on cobbles is pretty okay, it hurts less than asphalt imo dunno about the track though..

yeah I'm not so sure classics more dangerous. They can cause crashes more naturally but you get less bunch riding. And the pace is ussually less rapid in these races.

 

[Christian]

Tour Méditerranéen is going to be from February 8th to 12th.

It will start in Pertuis and other towns that host start/finish are: Toulon, Salon-de-Provence, La Ciotat, Martigues, Meyreuil, La Londe-les-Maures, Seyne-sur-Mer and of course the Mont Faron.

That looks like a really beautiful parcours, at least the towns that I know (Salon, La Ciotat, Martigues) are all gorgeous. I think I'll probably go see the start in Pertuis and then maybe the arrivée in La Ciotat if I can squeeze it in.

Also Sport+ (?) and France 3 will broadcast it live ... supposedly.

http://www.cyclismactu.net/news-saison-2012-le-tour-mediterraneen-du-8-au-12-fevrier-20195.html

 

[Matthijs]

Actually, the Republic used to hate ice. They relied on the many rivers and water lines as their main defense line against the French and the Spanish. In cold winters everyone had to help smash the ice and keep the water running. If their water lines were frozen Spanish or French soldiers could have easily lied siege to some important cities.

As far as transportation goes, the main transportation for persons used to be a channel system which linked all the important cities to each other. Best not frozen either as it relied on horses for movement.

nice history facts pistolero! i don't think you learn this on the first wikipedia site about ice
I didn't talked about real trade/bussiness/rich guys though. transport of persons from farm to village, relatives in other villages, small amounts of cargo on a gliding 'slee': poor peoples transport...

 

[Matthijs]

I don't agree. P-R probably more then most classics really favours the strong.
This year was a rarity, of course it can happen.
Bunch sprint in PR. just no.
and then 2 years injured/3 years out of form is baseless speculation.
Boonen, canc etc generally very good at getting form at the right time, with the wright program G shouldnt have problems either. Of course I garee there will be a couple seasons where the classic season will go wrong, as they do. But not to the extent you suggest.

I had Ronde in mind. And bunch is of course not 100 man. Actually i should use groups sprint with 7-15 people where I guess GT won't win. Weseman and Bortolami (the italian who stole Dekkers win) springs to mind.

A rarity, a win from a break. That's why I said once a 10 year

Speculation? This year everybody screamed Boonen wasn't in form. Actually, Boonen is one of the best in being in form in the right period and even he cant do it perfect every year. Other toplevel contenders who have been the main contenders against Boonen, have a lot of years in their best fysical years not the best form: Cancellara, Pozzato, Ballan, Hoste, Devolder, Steegmans, Chavanel, Nuyens Hushovd. Boonen is the best, all the rest arent that good in their form peak. So I definately expect a talented rider a few times not to be in his best form...

Then, moving on: all the best contenders have years with technical problems. Cancellara's chain springs to mind. Well, 2 years injured + 3 years out of form was way too much in hindsight, but 2-3 years not in winning form in a 10 year career + 1-2 technical stuff in the cobbled races isn't that strange right?
I guess a non-sprinter can have 2-4 real chances at the Ronde (just like Hoste and Devolder did for instance), do not throw them away Geraint!

I think you're right about PR: a non-sprinter has more chances. But because it's less tactical, it's harder too win in a Nuyens kind of way and you have to be not only one of the 2-4 best, but the single best...

 

[CobbleStoner]

Meh falling on cobbles is pretty okay, it hurts less than asphalt imo dunno about the track though..

falling on cobbles breaks bones and bikes, but it is usually raining so you don't lose a lot of skin (just a couple chunks missing from a stone edge), falling on asphalt takes the skin off (and scratches your paint), falling on the boards burns like hell (and ruins $ wheels), but the worst crash I've ever had was at the LA Olympic velodrome, outside & concrete, crashed in the banking and a few guys on top of me as I slid down, taking all the skin off the side of my torso, then the paramedics tell me there is a lead paint coating on the track that they have to scrub out of my wounds, fun times. the velodrome then proceeded to remove that painted surface before the Olympics started, I was the ginny pig.

 

[simo1733]

"the olympic gold is only bigger temporarily. I mean it will be good for his popularity yes, but to be fair you'd expect GB to win more golds this olympics, so chances are he went be the hero some are suggesting, just one of many."

GB won't win more track Gold medals in London than they did in Beijing.No way.

 

[just some guy]

Thomas to miss the tour and ride the Giro then track for the Olympics

 

[simo1733]

Thomas to miss the tour and ride the Giro then track for the Olympics

If he is just riding the team pursuit I don't think he will get a Gold medal.
Aus are stronger than GB without Wiggins.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

"the olympic gold is only bigger temporarily. I mean it will be good for his popularity yes, but to be fair you'd expect GB to win more golds this olympics, so chances are he went be the hero some are suggesting, just one of many."

GB won't win more track Gold medals in London than they did in Beijing.No way.

I wasn't talking about track, but the Olympics in general.
Home Olympics tends to bring more out of the athletes, plus the increased funding etc.

 

[Tei6chai]

If he is just riding the team pursuit I don't think he will get a Gold medal.
Aus are stronger than GB without Wiggins.

Well, we'll see about that next year.

Personally, I think it's going to be one of the most interesting duels in the Olympics, and I'm near-certain that Wiggins is less important to the GB team pursuit than he was to Cav at the WC road race.

Wiggins true talent is to keep up a high speed for a long time. This is not as important in team pursuit, where the premium is on pure top speed combined with teamwork/co-ordination.

Sure, a long pull gives the others time to recover, but a 'long pull' on the track may only be an extra 200 metres.

The time differences between GB (minus Wiggins) and Aus are far too small to have any certainty either way ... just an 'off day' by any of the 8 riders would be enough to make the difference.